Tag Archives: Madagascar

Tropical Cyclone Cheneso Strengthens Back to Equivalent of Hurricane/Typhoon

Tropical Cyclone Cheneso strengthened back to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon southwest of Madagascar on Friday night. At 10:00 a.m. EST on Saturday the center of Tropical Cyclone Cheneso was located at latitude 26.2°S and longitude 42.0°E which put it about 200 miles (320 km) west-southwest of Tsiombe, Madagascar. Cheneso was moving toward the south-southeast at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 105 m.p.h. (165 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 974 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Cheneso strengthened back to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon on Friday night after it moved away from cooler water it had mixed to the surface of the Mozambique Channel west of Madagascar. A circular eye formed at the center of Cheneso’s circulation. The eye was surrounded by a broken ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Tropical Cyclone Cheneso appeared to be pulling drier air around the northern side of its circulation. Many of the thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the southern half of Cheneso. Bands in the northern half of the circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Storms near the center of circulation generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the east of the tropical cyclone. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 50 miles (80 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Cheneso. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 175 miles (280 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Cheneso will move into an environment that will be unfavorable for a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours. Cheneso will move over over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 27˚C during the next 24 hours. However, Tropical Cyclone Cheneso will start to move over colder water on Sunday. An upper level trough near southern Africa will produce northwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Cheneso’s circulation. Those winds will cause the vertical wind shear to increase. The combination of colder water and more vertical wind shear will cause tropical cyclone Cheneso to make a transition to an extratropical cyclone during the next 48 hours.

The upper level trough near southern Africa will steer Tropical Cyclone Cheneso toward the southeast during the next 48 hours. On its anticipated track Cheneso will pass south of Madagascar on Saturday night. Tropical Cyclone Cheneso will move quickly away from Madagascar on Sunday.

Tropical Cyclone Cheneso Spins West of Madagascar

Tropical Cyclone Cheneso was spinning west of southern Madagascar on Friday morning. At 10:00 a.m. EST on Friday the center of Tropical Cyclone Cheneso was located at latitude 23.0°S and longitude 41.6°E which put it about 150 miles (240 km) west-northwest of Taliara, Madagascar. Cheneso was moving toward the south-southwest at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 989 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Cheneso was spinning over the Mozambique Channel west of southern Madagascar on Friday morning. Cheneso was starting to move away from cooler water that it mixed to the surface of the Mozambique Channel while it was stationary earlier this week. The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the center of Cheneso’s circulation and an eye appeared to be forming again. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Tropical Cyclone Cheneso. Storms near the core generated more upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 150 miles (240 km) from the center of Cheneso.

Tropical Cyclone Cheneso will move into an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Cheneso will move over over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29˚C. It will be under the western end of an upper level ridge that is centered east of Madagascar. The ridge will produce northwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Cheneso’s circulation. Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear, but the shear will not be enough to prevent intensification. Tropical Cyclone Cheneso is likely to intensify during the next 24 hours. It could strengthen back to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon.

Tropical Cyclone Cheneso will move around the western end of a high pressure system over the Southwest Indian Ocean during the next 24 hours. The high pressure system will steer Cheneso toward the south. On its anticipated track the center of Tropical Cyclone Cheneso will remain west of Madagascar. Thunderstorms in bands in the eastern side of Cheneso could produce locally heavy rain over southern Madagascar. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

An upper level trough over southern Africa will steer Tropical Cyclone Cheneso toward the southeast during the weekend. The trough will cause the vertical wind shear to increase. Cheneso will move over cooler water when it moves southeast. A combination of more vertical wind shear and cooler water will cause Tropical Cyclone Cheneso to make a transition to an extratropical cyclone during the weekend.

Tropical Cyclone Cheneso Weakens West of Madagascar

Tropical Cyclone Cheneso weakened west of Madagascar on Wednesday night. At 10:00 a.m. EST on Thursday the center of Tropical Cyclone Cheneso was located at latitude 20.4°S and longitude 42.6°E which put it about 110 miles (175 km) west-southwest of Morondava, Madagascar. Cheneso was moving toward the south-southwest at 3 m.p.h. (5 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 980 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Cheneso was nearly stationary over the Mozambique Channel west of Madagascar for 36 hours. The winds in the lower levels of the atmosphere mixed cooler water to the surface of the Mozambique Channel. Cheneso extracted less energy from the cooler water and it weakened slightly. A ring of thunderstorms around the center of Tropical Cyclone Cheneso weakened. The strongest thunderstorms were occurring in the southern part of the ring around the center. Other bands of thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Cheneso’s circulation. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 30 miles (50 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Cheneso. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 115 miles (185 km) from the center of circulation.

A surface high pressure system over the Southwest Indian Ocean will move southeast during the next several days. Tropical Cyclone Cheneso will move around the northwestern side of the high pressure system during the next 24 hours. The high pressure system will steer Cheneso toward the southwest during the next day or so. On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Cheneso will move parallel to the coast of southwestern Madagascar during the next 24 hours. Bands in the eastern side of Cheneso’s circulation will drop locally heavy rain over western Madagascar. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Tropical Cyclone Cheneso will move into an environment favorable for intensification after it moves southwest of the cooler water it mixed to the surface. Cheneso will move over over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29˚C. It will be under the axis of an upper level ridge that stretches from Madagascar westward across southern Africa. The upper level winds are weak near the axis of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Cyclone Cheneso is likely to intensify during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Cheneso Strengthens to Equivalent of a Hurricane/Typhoon

Tropical Cyclone Cheneso strengthened to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon over the Mozambique Channel west of Madagascar on Tuesday. At 10:00 p.m. EST on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Cheneso was located at latitude 20.1°S and longitude 43.0°E which put it about 75 miles (120 km) west of Morondava, Madagascar. Cheneso was nearly stationary. The maximum sustained wind speed was 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 977 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Cheneso rapidly intensified to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon over the warm water in the Mozambique Channel west of Madagascar on Tuesday. The inner end of a rainband wrapped most of the way around Cheneso’s circulation. A circular eye appeared to be developing at the center of circulation. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Tropical Cyclone Cheneso. Storms near the core generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 20 miles (30 km) from the center of Cheneso. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 150 miles (240 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Cheneso will be in an environment favorable for intensification during the next 36 hours. Cheneso will be over over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29˚C. It will be under the axis of an upper level ridge that stretches from Madagascar westward across southern Africa. The upper level winds are weak near the axis of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Cyclone Cheneso will intensify during the next 36 hours. Cheneso could intensify rapidly at times. Tropical Cyclone Cheneso could strengthen to the equivalent of a major hurricane in two or three days.

Tropical Cyclone Cheneso will be in a region where the steering winds are weak during the next 24 hours. Cheneso could be nearly stationary during much of Wednesday. The northwestern part of a high pressure system over the Southwest Indian Ocean will start to steer Tropical Cyclone Cheneso toward the southwest in 24 to 36 hours. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Cheneso will remain near the west coast of Madagascar during the next 24 hours. Bands of showers and thunderstorms in the eastern side of Cheneso’s circulation could continue to drop locally heavy rain over parts of the west coast of Madagascar. Heavy rain falling on saturated ground is likely to cause flooding in some locations.

Tropical Cyclone Cheneso Moves over Mozambique Channel

Tropical Cyclone Cheneso moved over the Mozambique Channel on Monday night. At 10:00 p.m. EST on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone Cheneso was located at latitude 20.2°S and longitude 42.5°E which put it about 100 miles (160 km) west of Morondava, Madagascar. Cheneso was moving toward the west at 11 m.p.h. (17 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 999 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Cheneso emerged over the Mozambique Channel after moving slowly toward the southwest across northern Madagascar during the past 4 days. Bands of thunderstorms were developing quickly over the warm water in the Mozambique Channel. The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the southern and western sides of the center of Cheneso’s circulation. Storms near the center began to generate upper level divergence again that pumped mass way from the tropical cyclone. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 90 miles (145 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Cheneso will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 36 hours. Cheneso will move over over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29˚C. It will move under an upper level ridge that stretches from the South Indian Ocean westward across southern Africa. The upper level winds are weak near the axis of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Cyclone Cheneso will intensify during the next 36 hours. Cheneso could intensify rapidly at times and it is likely to strengthen to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon.

Tropical Cyclone Cheneso will move around the northwestern part of a high pressure system over the Southwest Indian Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Cheneso slowly toward the west during the next 36 hours. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Cheneso will move gradually farther to the west of Madagascar. Bands of showers and thunderstorms in the eastern side of Cheneso’s circulation could continue to drop locally heavy rain over parts of the west coast of Madagascar.

Tropical Cyclone Cheneso Hits Northern Madagascar

Tropical Cyclone Cheneso hit northern Madagascar on Thursday. At 4:00 a.m. EST on Thursday the center of Tropical Cyclone Cheneso was located at latitude 14.3°S and longitude 49.5°E which put it about 50 miles (80 km) west of Sambava, Madagascar. Cheneso was moving toward the west-southwest at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 993 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Cheneso made landfall on the northern coast of Madagascar near Sambava early on Thursday. Cheneso strengthened prior to make landfall. It was the equivalent of a strong tropical storm at the time of landfall. The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h). Winds to tropical storm force extended out 90 miles (145 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Cheneso. Cheneso was dropping heavy rain over parts of northern Madagascar on Thursday morning.

Tropical Cyclone Cheneso will move around the northwestern part of a high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Cheneso toward the southwest during the next few days. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Cheneso will move southwest over northern Madagascar. Cheneso will weaken gradually as it moves over Madagascar, but it will continue to drop heavy rain in some places. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations. Tropical Cyclone Cheneso could move over the Mozambique Channel in a few days. There is a chance that Cheneso could strengthen when it gets over the Mozambique Channel.

Tropical Cyclone Cheneso Develops East of Madagascar

Tropical Cyclone Cheneso developed east of northern Madagascar on Wednesday morning. At 4:00 a.m. EST on Wednesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Cheneso was located at latitude 13.8°S and longitude 53.7°E which put it about 245 miles (390 km) east of Sambava, Madagascar. Cheneso was moving toward the west at 13 m.p.h. (20 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 996 mb.

The circulation around a low pressure system over the South Indian Ocean east of northern Madagascar strengthened on Wednesday morning and Meteo France La Reunion designated the system as Tropical Cyclone Cheneso. The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the western and northern sides of the center of Cheneso’s circulation. Other bands of showers and thunderstorms were in the western half of Tropical Cyclone Cheneso. Bands in the eastern half of Cheneso consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds, although there were also some thunderstorms in that side of the circulation. Storms near the center of circulation generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 115 miles (185 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Cheneso.

Tropical Cyclone Cheneso will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 18 hours. Cheneso will move over over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near than 29˚C. It will move under the western end of the axis of an upper level ridge over the South Indian Ocean. The upper level winds are weak near the axis of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Cyclone Cheneso will strengthen during the next 18 hours and it could intensify rapidly.

Tropical Cyclone Cheneso will move around the northern side of a high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Cheneso toward the west during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Cheneso could reach landfall on the northern coast of Madagascar near Sambava in 18h ours. Cheneso will bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to northern Madagascar. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Tropical Cyclone Jasmine Brings Gusty Winds and Rain to Southern Madagascar

Tropical Cyclone Jasmine brought gusty winds and locally heavy rain to southern Madagascar on Tuesday. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Jasmine was located at latitude 23.4°S and longitude 44.0°E which put it about 30 miles (50 km) east of Toliara, Madagascar. Jasmine was moving toward the east at 10 m.p.h (16 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 988 mb.

The center of Tropical Cyclone Jasmine made landfall on the southwest coast of Madagascar near Toliara on Tuesday. Jasmine was the equivalent of a tropical storm at the time of landfall. The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h). Winds to tropical storm force extended out 100 miles (160 km) from the center of Jasmine.

Tropical Cyclone Jasmine will move east across the southern end of Madagascar during the next 18 hours. Jasmine will weaken as it moves over southern Madagascar but it will continue to produce gusty winds. The gusty winds could cause minor damage and electrical outages. Tropical Cyclone Jasmine will also drop locally heavy rain over parts of southern Madagascar. Locally heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations, especially in places with steep slopes.

Tropical Cyclone Jasmine Moves Toward Southwest Madagascar

Tropical Cyclone Jasmine moved toward southwest Madagascar on Monday night. At 8:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone Jasmine was located at latitude 22.8°S and longitude 41.9°E which put it about 125 miles (200 km) west-northwest of Toliara, Madagascar. Jasmine was moving toward the southeast at 5 m.p.h (8 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 985 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Jasmine strengthened slightly on Monday night as it moved over the Mozambique Channel toward southwest Madagascar. The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the center of Jasmine’s circulation. A ring of thunderstorms surrounded the center of circulation. The strongest thunderstorms were occurring in the southern past of the ring. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Tropical Cyclone Jasmine. Storms near the core of Jasmine generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone. The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Jasmine was small. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 65 miles (105 km) from the center of Jasmine.

Tropical Cyclone Jasmine will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 12 hours. Jasmine will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 27˚C. An upper level trough over southern Africa will produce northwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Jasmine’s circulation. Those winds will cause the vertical wind shear to increase on Tuesday. Tropical Cyclone Jasmine could intensify during the next few hours, but it may start to weaken later on Tuesday when the shear increases.

The upper level trough over southern Africa will steer tropical cyclone Jasmine toward the east-southeast during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, Jasmine will approach the coast of southwest Madagascar during the next 12 hours. The center of Tropical Cyclone Jasmine could make landfall near Toliara in 15 to 18 hours. Jasmine will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to southern Madagascar during the next 36 hours. Locally heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Tropical Cyclone Jasmine Strengthens over Mozambique Channel

Tropical Cyclone Jasmine strengthened over the Mozambique Channel on Sunday. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone Jasmine was located at latitude 19.5°S and longitude 39.6°E which put it about 210 miles (340 km) north-northeast of Europa Island. Jasmine was moving toward the south at 7 m.p.h (11 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 988 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Jasmine strengthened on Sunday as it moved through a favorable environment over the Mozambique Channel. The distribution of thunderstorms around Jasmine’s circulation became more symmetrical, More thunderstorms developed around the center of Tropical Cyclone Jasmine. Storms near the center of circulation generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the southeast of the tropical cyclone. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Jasmine. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 65 miles (105 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Jasmine will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Jasmine will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28˚C. It will move under the western part of an upper level ridge over the Mozambique Channel. The upper level ridge will produce northwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Jasmine’s circulation. Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear, but the wind shear may not be large enough to prevent intensification. Tropical Cyclone Jasmine could get stronger during the next 24 hours. An upper level trough over southern Africa will move toward Jasmine on Monday. The upper level trough could cause the wind shear to increase when it moves closer to Tropical Cyclone Jasmine.

Tropical Cyclone Jasmine will move around the western side of a high pressure system over the Southwest Indian Ocean during the next 24 hours. The high pressure system will steer Jasmine toward the south during the next day or so. Jasmine could move more toward the southeast when it moves around the western end of the ridge early next week. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Jasmine could approach southwestern Madagascar within 48 hours.