Tag Archives: Tsiombe

Tropical Cyclone Honde Brings Wind and Rain to Southern Madagascar

Tropical Cyclone Honde continued to bring wind and rain to southern Madagascar on Saturday.  At 4:00 a.m. EST on Saturday the center of Tropical Cyclone Honde was located at latitude 26.9°S and longitude 45.3°E which put the center about 120 miles (195 km) south of Tsiombe, Madagascar.  Honde was moving toward the southeast at 4 m.p.h. (6 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 970 mb.

Bands in the northern side of Tropical Cyclone Honde continued to bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to parts of southern Madagascar on Saturday.  A circular eye with a diameter of 24 miles (38 km) was at the center of Honde’s circulation.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Tropical Cyclone Honde.  Storms near the center of Honde generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.  The divergence of mass in the upper levels of the atmosphere was almost balanced by the inflow of mass in the lower levels of Tropical Cyclone Honde.  As a result, the surface pressure was not changing much.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Honde was large.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 40 miles (65 km) in the southern half of Honde’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 220 miles (350 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Honde.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Honde was 10.4.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 12.5 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 22.9.  Tropical Cyclone Honde was similar in intensity to Hurricane Dolly when Dolly hit south Texas in 2008.

Tropical Cyclone Honde will move through an environment marginally favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Honde will move over water where where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 27°C.  It will move under the eastern side of an upper level trough near southern Africa.  The upper level trough will produce northwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Honde’s circulation.  Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear.  The moderate vertical wind shear will inhibit intensification. Tropical Cyclone Honde will likely maintain its intensity during the next 24 hours.

The upper level trough near southern Africa will steer Tropical Cyclone Honde slowly toward the southeast during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, the center of Tropical Cyclone Honde will move a little farther away from southern Madagascar.

Tropical Cyclone Honde will continue to bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to parts of southern Madagascar during the next 24 hours.  Prolonged heavy rain will likely cause flash floods in some locations.

Elsewhere over the Southwest Indian Ocean, Tropical Cyclone Garance was weakening as it moved farther to the south of La Reunion.  At 4:00 a.m. EST on Saturday the center of Tropical Cyclone Garance was located at latitude 28.6°S and longitude 55.0°E which put the center about 505 miles (815 km) south of St. Denis, La, Reunion.  Garance was moving toward the south at 21 m.p.h. (33 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 986 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Cheneso Strengthens Back to Equivalent of Hurricane/Typhoon

Tropical Cyclone Cheneso strengthened back to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon southwest of Madagascar on Friday night. At 10:00 a.m. EST on Saturday the center of Tropical Cyclone Cheneso was located at latitude 26.2°S and longitude 42.0°E which put it about 200 miles (320 km) west-southwest of Tsiombe, Madagascar. Cheneso was moving toward the south-southeast at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 105 m.p.h. (165 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 974 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Cheneso strengthened back to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon on Friday night after it moved away from cooler water it had mixed to the surface of the Mozambique Channel west of Madagascar. A circular eye formed at the center of Cheneso’s circulation. The eye was surrounded by a broken ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Tropical Cyclone Cheneso appeared to be pulling drier air around the northern side of its circulation. Many of the thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the southern half of Cheneso. Bands in the northern half of the circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Storms near the center of circulation generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the east of the tropical cyclone. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 50 miles (80 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Cheneso. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 175 miles (280 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Cheneso will move into an environment that will be unfavorable for a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours. Cheneso will move over over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 27˚C during the next 24 hours. However, Tropical Cyclone Cheneso will start to move over colder water on Sunday. An upper level trough near southern Africa will produce northwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Cheneso’s circulation. Those winds will cause the vertical wind shear to increase. The combination of colder water and more vertical wind shear will cause tropical cyclone Cheneso to make a transition to an extratropical cyclone during the next 48 hours.

The upper level trough near southern Africa will steer Tropical Cyclone Cheneso toward the southeast during the next 48 hours. On its anticipated track Cheneso will pass south of Madagascar on Saturday night. Tropical Cyclone Cheneso will move quickly away from Madagascar on Sunday.