Tropical Cyclone Cheneso strengthened back to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon southwest of Madagascar on Friday night. At 10:00 a.m. EST on Saturday the center of Tropical Cyclone Cheneso was located at latitude 26.2°S and longitude 42.0°E which put it about 200 miles (320 km) west-southwest of Tsiombe, Madagascar. Cheneso was moving toward the south-southeast at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 105 m.p.h. (165 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 974 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Cheneso strengthened back to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon on Friday night after it moved away from cooler water it had mixed to the surface of the Mozambique Channel west of Madagascar. A circular eye formed at the center of Cheneso’s circulation. The eye was surrounded by a broken ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Tropical Cyclone Cheneso appeared to be pulling drier air around the northern side of its circulation. Many of the thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the southern half of Cheneso. Bands in the northern half of the circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Storms near the center of circulation generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the east of the tropical cyclone. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 50 miles (80 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Cheneso. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 175 miles (280 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Cheneso will move into an environment that will be unfavorable for a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours. Cheneso will move over over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 27˚C during the next 24 hours. However, Tropical Cyclone Cheneso will start to move over colder water on Sunday. An upper level trough near southern Africa will produce northwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Cheneso’s circulation. Those winds will cause the vertical wind shear to increase. The combination of colder water and more vertical wind shear will cause tropical cyclone Cheneso to make a transition to an extratropical cyclone during the next 48 hours.

The upper level trough near southern Africa will steer Tropical Cyclone Cheneso toward the southeast during the next 48 hours. On its anticipated track Cheneso will pass south of Madagascar on Saturday night. Tropical Cyclone Cheneso will move quickly away from Madagascar on Sunday.