Tropical Cyclone Cheneso was spinning west of southern Madagascar on Friday morning. At 10:00 a.m. EST on Friday the center of Tropical Cyclone Cheneso was located at latitude 23.0°S and longitude 41.6°E which put it about 150 miles (240 km) west-northwest of Taliara, Madagascar. Cheneso was moving toward the south-southwest at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 989 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Cheneso was spinning over the Mozambique Channel west of southern Madagascar on Friday morning. Cheneso was starting to move away from cooler water that it mixed to the surface of the Mozambique Channel while it was stationary earlier this week. The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the center of Cheneso’s circulation and an eye appeared to be forming again. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Tropical Cyclone Cheneso. Storms near the core generated more upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 150 miles (240 km) from the center of Cheneso.

Tropical Cyclone Cheneso will move into an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Cheneso will move over over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29˚C. It will be under the western end of an upper level ridge that is centered east of Madagascar. The ridge will produce northwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Cheneso’s circulation. Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear, but the shear will not be enough to prevent intensification. Tropical Cyclone Cheneso is likely to intensify during the next 24 hours. It could strengthen back to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon.

Tropical Cyclone Cheneso will move around the western end of a high pressure system over the Southwest Indian Ocean during the next 24 hours. The high pressure system will steer Cheneso toward the south. On its anticipated track the center of Tropical Cyclone Cheneso will remain west of Madagascar. Thunderstorms in bands in the eastern side of Cheneso could produce locally heavy rain over southern Madagascar. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

An upper level trough over southern Africa will steer Tropical Cyclone Cheneso toward the southeast during the weekend. The trough will cause the vertical wind shear to increase. Cheneso will move over cooler water when it moves southeast. A combination of more vertical wind shear and cooler water will cause Tropical Cyclone Cheneso to make a transition to an extratropical cyclone during the weekend.