Monthly Archives: September 2024

Typhoon Bebinca Brings Wind and Rain to Shanghai

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Typhoon Bebinca brought wind and rain to Shanghai on Sunday night.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Typhoon Bebinca located at latitude 31.1°N and longitude 121.0°E which put the center about 25 miles (40 km) south-southeast of Shanghai, China.  Bebinca was moving toward the west-northwest at 17 m.p.h. (28 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 970 mb.

The center of Typhoon Bebinca made landfall on the east coast of China just to the southeast of Shanghai on Sunday night.  A small circular eye was present at the center of Bebinca’s circulation at the time of landfall.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Typhoon Bebinca.

The circulation around Typhoon Bebinca was small.  Winds to typhoon force extended out 25 miles (40 km) from the center of Bebinca’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 115 miles (185 km) from the center of Typhoon Bebinca.

Typhoon Bebinca will move around the southern side of a high pressure system over China.  The high pressure system will steer Bebinca toward the west-northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Typhoon Bebinca will move farther inland over eastern China.

Typhoon Bebinca will bring strong winds and heavy rain to the region of China near Shanghai.  Bebinca will bring strong winds and heavy rain to Jiangsu and Zhejiang.  Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations.  Typhoon Bebinca could also cause a storm surge of up to 7 feet (2 meters) along the coast near Shanghai.  Bebinca will weaken as it moves inland, but heavy rain could fall over the region west of Shanghai.

Low Pressure System Prompts Tropical Storm Warning for the Carolinas

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A potential risk posed by a low pressure system prompted the issuance of a Tropical Storm Warning for the coast of the Carolinas.  The low pressure system was designated as Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight by the U.S. National Hurricane Center.  At 8:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight was located at latitude 32.1°N and longitude 77.8°W which put the center about 140 miles (220 km) east-southeast of Charleston, South Carolina.  The low pressure system was moving toward the northwest at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1006 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Edisto Beach, South Carolina to Ocracoke Inlet, North Carolina.  The Tropical Storm Warning includes Charleston, South Carolina.

An extratropical cyclone off the coast of the Carolinas began to exhibit some characteristics of a tropical storm on Sunday and the U.S. National Hurricane Center designated the system as Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight.  More thunderstorms formed near the center of the low pressure system.  Bands of thunderstorms began to develop around the low pressure system.  However, the low pressure system was still close to a nearly stationary frontal system.  So, the distribution of thunderstorms was asymmetrical.  Thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the northern side of the low pressure system.  Bands in the southern part of Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.

The distribution of winds speeds in Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight was also asymmetrical.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 175 miles (280 km) in the northern side of the low pressure system.  The winds in the southern side of Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 12 hours.  The low pressure system will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C.  It will move under the western part of an upper level low off the coast of the Southeast U.S.  The upper level low will produce southerly winds that will blow toward the top of Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight.  Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear.  The wind shear will inhibit intensification, but Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight could make a transition to a tropical cyclone during the next 12 hours.  It could also intensify on Monday.

Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system over the North Atlantic Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer the low pressure system toward the northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight will make landfall on the coast of South Carolina northeast of Charleston on Monday afternoon.

Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight will bring strong winds and heavy rain to parts of South Carolina and North Carolina.  The strong winds could cause electricity outages.  Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations,

Flood Watches are in effect for parts of South Carolina and eastern North Carolina.

Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight could cause a storm surge of up to 4 feet (1 meter) along the coast of eastern South Carolina and North Carolina.  Waves will also cause erosion of beaches.

Elsewhere, former Tropical Storm Gordon weakened to a tropical depression east of the Northern Leeward Islands.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Depression Gordon was located at latitude 19.2°N and longitude 46.1°W which put the center about 1115 miles (1790 km) east of the Northern Leeward Islands.  Gordon was moving toward the west at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1007 mb.

Tropical Storm Ileana Makes Landfall on West Coast of Mexico

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The center of Tropical Storm Ileana made landfall on the west coast of Mexico south of Los Mochis on Saturday afternoon.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Storm Ileana was located at latitude 25.5°N and longitude 108.9°W which put the center about 20 miles (30 km) south-southeast of Los Mochis, Mexico.  Ileana was moving toward the north at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1002 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Altata to Huatabampito, Mexico.

The center of Tropical Storm Ileana made landfall on the west coast of Mexico near Topolobampo.  Thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the northern and eastern sides of the center of Ileana’s circulation.   Bands in the southern and western parts of Tropical Storm Ileana consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.

The strongest winds were occurring in the eastern side of Tropical Storm Ileana.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 60 miles (95 km) in the eastern side of Ileana’s circulation.  The winds in the western side of Tropical Storm Ileana were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Storm Ileana will move around the western side of a high pressure system over Mexico.  The high pressure system will steer Ileana toward the north-northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Ileana will move near the west coast of Mexico.

Tropical Storm Ileana will weaken to a tropical depression this evening as it moves a little farther inland.  Ileana will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to parts of Sinaloa.  Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Typhoon Bebinca Brings Wind and Rain to Ryukyu Islands

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Typhoon Bebinca brought wind and rain to the Ryukyu Islands on Saturday.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Typhoon Bebinca located at latitude 28.5°N and longitude 128.6°E which put the center about 65 miles (105 km) west-northeast of Amami Oshima.  Bebinca was moving toward the northwest at 15 m.p.h. (24 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 973 mb.

Former Tropical Storm Bebinca strengthened to a typhoon as it passed over the Ryukyu Islands on Saturday.  The center of Typhoon Bebinca passed over Amami Oshima.  A weather station in Naze, Japan reported 8.76 inches (222.5 mm) of rain.  A weather station in Kasari, Japan reported 4.80 inches (122.0 mm) of rain.  That weather station also reported a sustained wind speed of 52 m.p.h. (84 km/h).  A weather station in Koniya, Japan reported 3.33 inches (84.5 mm) of rain.  That weather station also reported a sustained wind speed of 39 m.p.h. (63 km/h).

Former Tropical Storm Bebinca strengthened to a typhoon on Saturday.  The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the eastern, northern and western sides of the center of Bebinca’s circulation.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Typhoon Bebinca.  Storms near the core generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the typhoon.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The circulation around Typhoon Bebinca became more symmetrical on Saturday.  Winds to typhoon force extended out 30 miles (50 km) from the center of Bebinca’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 115 miles (185 km) from the center of Typhoon Bebinca.

Typhoon Bebinca will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Bebinca will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C.  It will move under the axis of an upper level ridge east of China.  The upper level winds are weak near the axis of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Typhoon Bebinca will intensify during the next 24 hours.  Bebinca could intensify rapidly at times.

Typhoon Bebinca will move around the southern side of a high pressure system that extends from China to the Western North Pacific Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Bebinca toward the west-northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Typhoon Bebinca will approach the east coast of China near Shanghai.

Typhoon Bebinca will bring strong winds and heavy rain to the region of China near Shanghai.  Typhoon Bebinca will bring strong winds and heavy rain to Jiangsu and Zhejiang.  Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations.

Tropical Storm Ileana Brings Wind and Rain to Southern Baja California

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Tropical Storm Ileana brought gusty winds and rain to the southern part of Baja California on Friday afternoon.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Storm Ileana was located at latitude 22.7°N and longitude 109.4°W which put the center about 35 miles (55 km) east-southeast of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico.   Ileana was moving toward the north-northwest at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).   The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (9 km/h).   The minimum surface pressure was 1000 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Santa Fe to San Evaristo, Mexico.  The Tropical Storm Warning includes Cabo San Lucas and La Paz.

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from San Evaristo to Loreto, Mexico.  A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from Topolobampo to Huatabampito, Mexico.

The circulation around Tropical Storm Ileana was not particularly well organized on Friday afternoon.  The northwestern part of Illeana’s circulation was passing over the southern end of Baja California.  The flow of air over land may have been disrupting the circulation.  Thunderstorms were occurring in bands revolving around the center of Tropical Storm Ileana.  Easterly winds pushing air up slopes in southern Baja California may have been contributing to the development of thunderstorms in that part of Ileana’s circulation.  Storms near the center of Ileana generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the northeast of the tropical storm.

The distribution of wind speeds in Tropical Storm Ileana was asymmetrical.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 60 miles (95 km) in the eastern side of Ileana’s circulation.  The winds in the western part of Tropical Storm Ileana were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Storm Ileana will move through an environment that will become less favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Ileana will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C.  It will move under the southern part of an upper level trough over the Southwest U.S.  The upper level trough will produce southwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Ileana’s circulation.  Those winds will cause the vertical wind shear to increase.  Tropical Storm Ileana is likely to weaken when the vertical wind shear increases.  The center of Ileana’s circulation could move across the southeastern tip of Baja California, which would also cause Tropical Storm Ileana to weaken.

Tropical Storm Ileana will move around the western end of a high pressure system over Mexico.  The high pressure system will steer Ileana toward the north during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, the center of Tropical Storm Ileana will move across the southeastern tip of Baja California and over the southern Gulf of California.

Tropical Storm Ileana will continue to bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to the southern part of Baja California during the next 24 hours.  Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

 

Tropical Storm Bebinca Moves Toward Ryukyu Islands

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Tropical Storm Bebinca moved over the Western North Pacific Ocean toward the Ryukyu Islands on Friday.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Storm Bebinca located at latitude 25.1°N and longitude 133.3°E which put the center about 405 miles (655 km) east-southeast of Okinawa.  Bebinca was moving toward the northwest at 25 m.p.h. (40 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 988 mb.

Tropical Storm Bebinca strengthened on Friday as it moved toward the Ryukyu Islands.  More thunderstorms formed near the center of Bebinca’s circulation.  Even though more thunderstorms formed near the center of Tropical Storm Bebinca, the distribution of thunderstorms was asymmetrical.  Thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the western side of Bebinca’s circulation.  Bands in the eastern side of Tropical Storm Bebinca consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Storms near the center of Bebinca generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical storm.

The distribution of wind speeds in Tropical Storm Bebinca was also asymmetrical.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 160 miles (260 km) in the northern half of Bebinca’s circulation.  The winds in the southern half of Tropical Storm Bebinca were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Storm Bebinca will move through an environment mostly favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Bebinca will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C.   It will move under the northeastern part of an upper level low east of Taiwan.  The upper level low will produce southeasterly winds that will blow toward the top of Bebinca’s circulation.  Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear.  The wind shear will inhibit intensification, but the shear will not be enough prevent intensification.  Tropical Storm Bebinca will intensify during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Storm Bebinca will move around the northeastern part of a large low pressure system east of Taiwan.  The low pressure system will steer Bebinca toward the west-northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Bebinca will reach the Ryukyu Islands in less than 24 hours.

Tropical Storm Bebinca could intensify to a typhoon before it reaches the Ryukyu Islands.  Bebinca will bring strong winds and heavy rain to Miniamidaitohima, Okinawa and Amami.  Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations.

Tropical Storm Gordon Forms East of Leeward Islands

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Tropical Storm Gordon formed east of the Leeward Islands on Friday morning.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Storm Gordon was located at latitude 19.4°N and longitude 38.6°W which put the center about 1640 miles (2650 km) east of the Leeward Islands.  Gordon was moving toward the west-northwest at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1006 mb.

A low pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean between the Leeward Islands and the Cabo Verde Islands strengthened on Friday morning and the U.S. National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Storm Gordon.  The distribution of thunderstorms in Gordon’s circulation was asymmetrical.  Thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the eastern side of Tropical Storm Gordon.  Bands in the western side of Gordon’s circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.

The distribution of winds speeds around Tropical Storm Gordon was also asymmetrical.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 60 miles (95 km) in the eastern side of Gordon’s circulation.  The winds in the western side of Tropical Storm Gordon were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Storm Gordon will move through an environment mostly unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Gordon will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 27°C.  It will move under the southeastern part of an upper level ridge over the subtropical Atlantic Ocean.  The upper level ridge will produce northeasterly winds that will blow toward the top of Gordon’s circulation.  Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear.  Gordon will also move through a region of very dry air.  The dry air will make if difficult for new thunderstorms to develop.  Tropical Storm Gordon could weaken to a tropical depression during the weekend because of the dry air.

Tropical Storm Gordon will move around the south side of the subtropical high pressure system will steer Gordon to the west during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Gordon will remain far to the east of the Leeward Islands during the weekend.

Elsewhere, the circulation of former Hurricane Francine was meandering over the Lower Mississippi River Valley.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Depression Francine was located at latitude 35.8°N and longitude 91.4°W which put the center about 80 miles (130 km) north-northeast of Little Rock, Arkansas.  Francine was moving toward the southeast at 3 m.p.h. (5 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 15 m.p.h. (25 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 25 m.p.h. (40 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1005 mb.

Tropical Storm Ileana Forms South of Baja California

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Tropical Storm Ileana formed south of Baja California on Thursday afternoon.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Storm Ileana was located at latitude 19.9°N and longitude 108.0°W which put the center about 240 miles (385 km) south-southeast of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico.  Ileana was moving toward the north-northwest at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1001 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Santa Fe to San Evaristo, Mexico.  The Tropical Storm Warning includes Cabo San Lucas and La Paz.

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from San Evaristo to Loreto, Mexico.  A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from Topolobampo to Huatabampito, Mexico.

A low pressure system over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean south of Baja California strengthened on Thursday afternoon and the U.S. National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Storm Ileana.  More thunderstorms were developing near the center of Ileana’s circulation.  However, the distribution of theunderstorms in Tropical Storm Ileana was asymmetrical.  Thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the western side of Ileana’s circulation.  Bands in the eastern side of Ileana consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.

The distribution of wind speeds in Tropical Storm Ileana was also asymmetrical.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 80 miles (130 km) in the northeastern quadrant of Ileana’s circulation.  The winds in the other parts of Ileana were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Storm Ileana will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Ileana will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C.  It will move under the southwestern part of an upper level ridge over Mexico.  The upper level ridge will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of Ileana’s circulation.  Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear.  The wind shear will inhibit intensification, but the shear will not be enough to prevent intensification.  Tropical Storm Ileana is likely to intensify during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Storm Ileana will move around the western end of a high pressure system over Mexico.  The high pressure system will steer Ileana toward the north-northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Ileana will reach the southern end of Baja California on Friday morning.

Tropical Storm Ileana will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to the southern part of Baja California.  Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Hurricane Francine Brings Wind and Rain to Southeast Louisiana

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Hurricane Francine brought wind and rain to southeast Louisiana on Wednesday evening.  Francine weakened to a tropical storm after it moved inland.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Storm Francine was located at latitude 30.2°N and longitude 90.6°W which put the center about 35 miles (55 km) west-northwest of New Orleans, Louisiana.  Francine was moving toward the northeast at 16 m.p.h. (26 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 70 m.p.h. (110 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 982 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Intracoastal City, Louisiana to the Alabama/Florida border.  The Tropical Storm Warning includes New Orleans, Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas.

Francine was a Category 2 Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale at the time of landfall.  The maximum sustained wind speed at that time was 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h).  At the time of landfall winds to hurricane force extended out 40 miles (65 km) from the center of Francine’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 140 miles (220 km) from the center of circulation.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) at landfall was 16.5.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 13.7 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 30.2.  Hurricane Francine was similar in intensity to Hurricane Idalia when Idalia hit Florida in 2023.  Francine was larger than Idalia was.

The center of Hurricane Francine made landfall on the coast of Louisiana south-southwest of Morgan City.  The center passed near a NOAA National Ocean Service Station north of Eugene Island, Louisiana (EINL1).  The station reported a sustained wind speed of 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and a wind gust of 105 m.p.h. (169 km/h).  The station reported a surface pressure of 976.0 mb.

The center of former Hurricane Francine passed west of New Orleans.  Francine dropped heavy rain over many parts of southeast Louisiana.  Flash Flood Warnings were issued for several parishes.  A weather station at the Louis Armstrong International Airport received 6.98 inches (177.3 mm) of rain.  A weather station at New Orleans Lakefront Airport reported 4.58 inches (116.3 mm) or rain.  Heavy rain was beginning to fall over parts of southern Mississippi.

Southerly winds were still pushing water toward the coast of southeast Louisiana and the coast of Mississippi.  Those winds were causing a storm surge along the coast.

A Storm Surge Warning in in effect for the portion of the coast from Avery Island, Louisiana to the Mississippi/Alabama border.  The Storm Surge Warning includes Vermilion Bay, Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas.

Tropical Storm Francine will move between a high pressure system that extends from the western Atlantic Ocean to the Gulf of Mexico and an upper level trough over the South Central U.S.  The high pressure system and the upper level trough will steer Francine toward the north-northeast during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, the center of Tropical Storm Francine will move across Mississippi on Thursday.

Tropical Storm Francine will continue to weaken as it moves farther inland.  Even though Francine will weaken it will bring strong winds and heavy rain to southeastern Louisiana, Mississippi, South Alabama and Northwest Florida.  Heavy rain is likely to cause floods in some locations.

Flood Watches are in effect for parts of Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama and Northwest Florida.

 

Hurricane Francine Strengthens to Cat. 2

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Hurricane Francine strengthened to Category 2 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale on Wednesday afternoon as it neared southeast Louisiana.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Hurricane Francine was located at latitude 29.2°N and longitude 91.5°W which put the center about 40 miles (65 km) south-southwest of Morgan City, Louisiana.  Francine was moving toward the northeast at 17 m.p.h. (28 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 120 m.p.h. (195 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 972 mb.

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from the Vermilion/Cameron Parish Line to Grand Isle, Louisiana

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for New Orleans, Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Cameron to the Vermilion/Cameron Parish Line, Louisiana.  A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Grand Isle, Louisiana to the Alabama/Florida border.  The Tropical Storm Warning includes New Orleans, Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas.

Data from reconnaissance aircraft in Hurricane Francine on Wednesday afternoon indicated that Francine had strengthened to a Category 2 Hurricane.  A large circular eye with a diameter of 45 miles (75 km) was at the center of Francine’s circulation.  The eye was surrounded by a broken ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the northern and eastern sides of Francine’s circulation.  Bands in the southern and western sides of Hurricane Francine consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.

The center of Hurricane Francine appeared to wobble slightly to the east as it approached the coast of Louisiana.  The northern part of the eyewall  of Hurricane Francine was moving over the coast of southeast Louisiana south of Morgan City.  A NOAA National Ocean Service station north of Eugene Island, Louisiana (EINL1) reported a sustained wind speed of 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and a wind gust of 99 m.p.h. ((160 km/h).  The station reported a surface pressure of 981.4 mb.

The strongest winds were occurring southeast of the center of Hurricane Francine.  Winds to hurricane force extended out 40 miles (65 km) from the center of Francine’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 140 miles (220 km) from the center of Hurricane Francine.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) was 16.5.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 13.7 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 30.2.  Hurricane Francine was similar in intensity to Hurricane Idalia when Idalia hit Florida in 2023.  Francine was larger than Idalia was.

Hurricane Francine will move between a high pressure system that extends from the western Atlantic Ocean to the Gulf of Mexico and an upper level trough over the South Central U.S,  The high pressure system and the upper level trough will steer Francine toward the northeast during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, the center of Hurricane Francine will make landfall on the southeast coast of Louisiana late during the next several hours.  Francine will move across southeast Louisiana on Wednesday night.

Hurricane Francine will bring strong winds and heavy rain to Louisiana.  Heavy rain was already falling on many places in southeast Louisiana.  Francine will be capable of causing serious damage.  Widespread outages of electricity are likely.  Heavy rain is likely to cause floods.  The heaviest rain will fall as the center of Francine’s circulation approaches a given location.   Hurricane Francine will also drop heavy rain over parts of Mississippi, South Alabama and Northwest Florida as it moves inland.

Flood Watches are in effect for parts of Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama and Northwest Florida.

Hurricane Francine could cause a storm surge of up to 10 feet (3 meters) along parts of the coast of Louisiana.  The highest surge will occur just to the east of where the center of Francine makes landfall in southeast Louisiana.  The storm surge will continue after the center of Hurricane Francine makes landfall because southerly winds will continue to push water toward the coast.

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Cameron/Vermilion Parish Line, Louisiana to the Mississippi/Alabama border.  The Storm Surge Warning includes Vermilion Bay, Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas.