Tag Archives: Japan

Typhoon Koguma Intensifies to Equivalent of a Major Hurricane

Leave a reply

Typhoon Koguma intensified to the equivalent of a major hurricane east of the Northern Marianas on Friday.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Friday the center of Typhoon Koguma was located at latitude 20.5°N and longitude 153.5°E which put the center about 640 miles (1035 km) east-northeast of Saipan.  Koguma was moving toward the west-northwest at 17 m.p.h. (28 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 115 m.p.h. (185 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 145 m.p.h. (235 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 961 mb.

Typhoon Koguma intensified to the equivalent of a major hurricane on Friday as it was completing an eyewall replacement cycle.  A new larger eye was forming at the center of Koguma’s circulation.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Typhoon Koguma.  Storms near the center of Koguma generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the typhoon.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

Even though Typhoon Koguma was completing an eyewall replacement cycle, the circulation around Koguma was still small for a typhoon over the Western North Pacific Ocean.  Winds to typhoon force extended out 45 miles (75 km) from the center of Koguma’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 105 miles (165 km) from the center of Typhoon Koguma.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Typhoon Koguma is 20.6.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 16.2 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 36.8.  Typhoon Koguma is similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Delta when Delta hit Louisiana in 2020.

Typhoon Koguma will move through an environment that will be favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Koguma will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move under the southwestern part of an upper level ridge that is over the Central North Pacific Ocean.  The upper level ridge will produce southeasterly winds that will blow toward the top of Koguma’s circulation.  Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear, but the wind shear will not be enough to prevent intensification.  Typhoon Koguma will intensify during the next 24 hours.

Typhoon Koguma will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system that is over the Western North Pacific Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Koguma toward the northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Typhoon Koguma will pass northeast of the Northern Marianas.

Elsewhere over the Western North Pacific Ocean, Tropical Storm Nolo continued to weaken gradually far to the southeast of Japan.

At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Storm Nolo was located at latitude 29.7°N and longitude 147.6°E which put the center about 635 miles (1025 km) southeast of Tokyo, Japan.  Nolo was moving toward the northwest at 13 m.p.h. (21 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 991 mb.

Koguma Strengthens to a Typhoon

Leave a reply

Former Tropical Storm Koguma strengthened to a typhoon over the Western North Pacific Ocean east of the Northern Marianas on Thursday.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Typhoon Koguma was located at latitude 18.4°N and longitude 157.1°E which put the center about 810 miles (1310 km) east-northeast of Saipan.  Koguma was moving toward the west-northwest at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 105 m.p.h. (165 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 980 mb.

Former Tropical Storm Koguma strengthened to a typhoon on Thursday.  The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the southern side of the center of Koguma’s circulation.  Other bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Typhoon Koguma.  Storms near the center of Koguma generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the typhoon.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The distribution of wind speeds in Typhoon Koguma was fairly symmetrical.  Winds to typhoon force extended out 30 miles (50 km) from the center of Koguma’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 105 miles (165 km) from the center of Typhoon Koguma.

Typhoon Koguma will move through an environment that will be favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Koguma will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move under the southwestern part of an upper level ridge that is over the Central North Pacific Ocean.  The upper level ridge will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of Koguma’s circulation.  Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear, but the wind shear will not be enough to prevent intensification.  Typhoon Koguma will intensify during the next 24 hours.  Koguma could strengthen to the equivalent of a major hurricane during the weekend.

Typhoon Koguma will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system that is over the Western North Pacific Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Koguma toward the west-northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Typhoon Koguma will pass northeast of the Northern Marianas.

Elsewhere over the Western North Pacific Ocean, Tropical Storm Nolo was weakening gradually far to the southeast of Japan.

At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Storm Nolo was located at latitude 28.1°N and longitude 150.6°E which put the center about 855 miles (1380 km) east-southeast of Tokyo, Japan.  Nolo was moving toward the west-northwest at 17 m.p.h. (28 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 991 mb.

Typhoon Nolo Passes North of Wake Island

Leave a reply

Typhoon Nolo passed north of Wake Island on Tuesday evening.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Typhoon Nolo was located at latitude 25.5°N and longitude 162.9°E which put the center about 445 miles (720 km) north of Wake Island.  Nolo was moving toward the west at 25 m.p.h. (40 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 105 m.p.h. (165 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 977 mb.

Typhoon Nolo weakened on Tuesday.  The eye was no longer visible at the center of Nolo’s circulation.  The distribution of thunderstorms in Typhoon Nolo became more asymmetrical on Tuesday.  Thunderstorms were still occurring in bands in the southern and eastern parts of Nolo’s circulation.  Bands in the northern and western parts of Typhoon Nolo consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Storms near the center of Nolo generated less upper level divergence that pumped less mass away from the typhoon.  The removal of mass in the upper levels was less than the convergence of mass in the lower levels of the atmosphere.  So, the surface pressure increased on Tuesday.

The circulation around Typhoon Nolo was still large.  Winds to typhoon force extended out 75 miles (120 km) from the center of Nolo’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 205 miles (335 km) from the center of Typhoon Nolo.

Typhoon Nolo will move through an environment that will be unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Nolo will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C.  It will move under the southern part of an upper level ridge that is over the Western North Pacific Ocean.  The upper level ridge will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of Nolo’s circulation.  Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear.  Typhoon Nolo will continue to weaken gradually on Wednesday because of the moderate vertical wind shear.

Typhoon Nolo will move around the southern side of a high pressure system that is over the Western North Pacific Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Nolo toward the west during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Typhoon Nolo will move northwest of Wake Island on Wednesday.

Elsewhere over the Western North Pacific Ocean, Typhoon Choi-wan was making a transition to a strong extratropical cyclone east of Japan and Tropical Storm Koguma was gradually intensifying south of Wake Island.

At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Typhoon Choi-wan was located at latitude 37.9°N and longitude 151.3°E which put the center about 530 miles (855 km) east-southeast of Misawa, Japan.  Choi-wan was moving toward the northeast at 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 105 m.p.h. (165 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 959 mb.

At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Storm Koguma was located at latitude 15.5°N and longitude 163.6°E which put the center about 325 miles (525 km) south-southwest of Wake Island.  Koguma was moving toward the northwest at 11 m.p.h. (17 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 996 mb.

Typhoon Surigae Intensifies to Equivalent of Major Hurricane

Typhoon Surigae intensified to the equivalent of a major hurricane on Saturday night as it moved over the Western North Pacific Ocean southeast of Okinawa.  At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Typhoon Surigae was located at latitude 25.7°N and longitude 128.6°E which put the center about 80 miles (130 km) southeast of Okinawa.  Surigae was moving toward the northeast at 11 m.p.h. (17 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 120 m.p.h. (195 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 150 m.p.h. (240 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 952 mb.

Typhoon Surigae intensified to the equivalent of a major hurricane on Saturday night.  A circular eye with a diameter of 20 miles (32 km) was at the center of Surigae’s circulation.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Typhoon Surigae.  Storms near the center of Surigae generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the typhoon.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The distribution of wind speed around Typhoon Surigae became more symmetrical when Surigae intensified.  Winds to typhoon force extended out 25 miles (40 km) from the center of Surigae’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 90 miles (145 km) from the center of Typhoon Surigae.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Typhoon Surigae is 22.1.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 9.2 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 31.3.  Typhoon Surigae is similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Zeta when Zeta hit Louisiana in 2020.

Typhoon Surigae will move through an environment that will be somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Surigae will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C.  It will move under the southern part of an upper level trough that is northwest of Japan.  The upper level trough will produce southwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Surigae’s circulation.  Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear, but the wind shear may not be enough to prevent intensification.  Typhoon Surigae could continue to intensify Sunday.  The vertical wind shear will increase on Monday when Surigae moves closer to the upper level westerly winds in the middle latitudes.  Typhoon Surigae will start to weaken when the vertical wind shear increases.

Typhoon Surigae will move around the western end of a high pressure system that is over the Western North Pacific Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Surigae toward the northeast during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, the center of Typhoon Surigae will move away Okinawa on Sunday.

Typhoon Surigae will continue to bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to the Ryukyu Islands including Okinawa on Sunday.  Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations.  The strong winds and rain will end gradually as Surigae moves away from the Ryukyu Islands.

Typhoon Dujuan Passes Southeast of Honshu

Typhoon Dujuan passed southeast of Honshu on Monday morning.  At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Monday the center of Typhoon Dujuan was located at latitude 34.3°N and longitude 140.8°E which put the center about 110 miles (175 km) south of Tokyo, Japan.  Dujuan was moving toward the northeast at 18 m.p.h. (30 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 971 mb.

Typhoon Dujuan strengthened a little more on Monday morning as it passed southeast of Honshu.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Dujuan’s circulation.  Storms near the center of Dujuan generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the northeast of the typhoon.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The strongest winds were occurring in the eastern side of Typhoon Dujuan.  Winds to typhoon force extended out 35 miles (55 km) in the eastern side of Dujuan’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 210 miles (335 km) from the center of Typhoon Dujuan.

Typhoon Dujuan will move through an environment that will be somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 12 hours.   Dujuan will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 27°C.  It will move under the eastern part of an upper level trough that is north of Japan.  The upper level trough will produce southwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Dujuan’s circulation.  Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear. The moderate vertical wind shear will inhibit intensification, but the wind shear may not be enough to prevent intensification.  Typhoon Dujuan could intensify a little more during the next 12 hours.  Dujuan will move over cooler Sea Surface Temperatures later on Monday.  Typhoon Dujuan will also into a region where the upper level winds are stronger on Tuesday.  The cooler Sea Surface Temperatures and stronger upper level winds will cause Typhoon Dujuan to weaken.  The cooler water and stronger upper level winds will also cause Dujuan to make a transition to an extratropical cyclone.

The upper level trough that is north of Japan will steer Typhoon Dujuan toward the northeast during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Typhoon Dujuan will move away from Honshu.

Typhoon Dujuan South of Honshu

The center of Typhoon Dujuan was south of Honshu on Sunday evening.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Typhoon Dujuan was located at latitude 33.0°N and longitude 139.5°E which put the center about 210 miles (335 km) south-southwest of Tokyo, Japan.  Dujuan was moving toward the northeast at 15 m.p.h. (24 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 974 mb.

Former Tropical Storm Dujuan strengthened back to a typhoon as it moved south of Honshu on Sunday evening.  The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the center of Typhoon Dujuan.  Other bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Dujuan’s circulation.  Storms near the center of Dujuan generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the northeast of the typhoon.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The strongest winds were occurring in the eastern side of Typhoon Dujuan.  Winds to typhoon force extended out 30 miles (50 km) in the eastern side of Dujuan’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 195 miles (315 km) from the center of Typhoon Dujuan.

Typhoon Dujuan will move through an environment that will be somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Dujuan will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C.  It will move under the southern part of an upper level trough that is north of Japan.  The upper level trough will produce southwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Dujuan’s circulation.  Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear.  The moderate vertical wind shear will inhibit intensification, but the wind shear may not be enough to prevent intensification.  Typhoon Dujuan could intensify on Monday.  Dujuan will move into a region where the upper level winds are stronger on Tuesday.  The stronger upper level winds will cause Typhoon Dujuan to start to weaken.  The stronger upper level winds will also cause Dujuan to make a transition to an extratropical cyclone.

The upper level trough that is north of Japan will steer Tropical Storm Dujuan toward the northeast during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, the center of Tropical Storm Dujuan will pass just south of Tokyo in a few hours.

Tropical Storm Dujuan will bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to Tokyo and eastern Honshu.  Heavy rain could cause floods in some locations.

Tropical Storm Dujuan Moves Toward Honshu

Tropical Storm Dujuan moved toward Honshu on Saturday.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Storm Dujuan was located at latitude 29.1°N and longitude 137.5°E which put the center about 475 miles (760 km) south-southwest of Tokyo, Japan.  Dujuan was moving toward the northwest at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 70 m.p.h. (110 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 978 mb.

Former Typhoon Dujuan weakened slightly on Saturday.  The circulation around Dujuan pulled some drier air into the eastern side of the tropical storm.  Some of the thunderstorms in bands in the eastern side of Tropical Storm Dujuan weakened.  Thunderstorms were still occurring in bands in the other parts of Dujuan’s circulation.  Storms near the center of Dujuan generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the northeast of the tropical storm.  The removal of mass in the upper levels was nearly equal to the convergence of mass in the lower levels of the atmosphere.  So, the surface pressure did not change much on Saturday.

The circulation around Tropical Storm Dujuan was large.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 230 miles (370 km) from the center of Dujuan’s circulation.

Tropical Storm Dujuan will move through an environment that will be somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Dujuan will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C.  It will move under the southern part of an upper level trough that is north of Japan.  The upper level trough will produce southwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Dujuan’s circulation.  Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear. The moderate vertical wind shear will inhibit intensification, but the wind shear may not be enough to prevent intensification.  Tropical Storm Dujuan could intensify a little on Sunday.

The upper level trough that is north of Japan will steer Tropical Storm Dujuan toward the north-northeast during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, the center of Tropical Storm Dujuan will pass just south of Tokyo in a little over 24 hours.

Tropical Storm Dujuan will bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to Tokyo and eastern Honshu.  Heavy rain could cause floods in some locations.

Dujuan Strengthens to a Typhoon

Former Tropical Storm Dujuan strengthened to a typhoon on Friday as it moved over the Western North Pacific Ocean northwest of Iwo To.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Typhoon Dujuan was located at latitude 26.5°N and longitude 139.4°E which put the center about 140 miles (225 km) northwest of Iwo To.  Dujuan was moving toward the west-northwest at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 978 mb.

Former Tropical Storm Dujuan strengthened to a typhoon on Friday.  The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the southern and eastern side of the center of Typhoon Dujuan.  Thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the northern side of Dujuan’s circulation.  Bands in the southern side of Typhoon Dujuan consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Storms near the center of Dujuan generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the typhoon.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The strongest winds were occurring close to the center of Typhoon Dujuan.  Winds to typhoon force extended out 20 miles (30 km) from the center of Dujuan’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 250 miles (400 km) in the northern side of Typhoon Dujuan.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 140 miles (225 km) in the southern half of Dujuan’s circulation.

Typhoon Dujuan will move through an environment that will be somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Dujuan will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C.  It will move under the western part of an upper level ridge that is southeast of Japan.  The upper level ridge will produce southerly winds that will blow toward the top of Dujuan’s circulation.  Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear.  The moderate vertical wind shear will inhibit intensification, but the wind shear may not be enough to prevent intensification.  Typhoon Dujuan could intensify a little more during the next 24 hours.

Typhoon Dujuan will move around the western part of a high pressure system that is over the Western North Pacific Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Dujuan toward the northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Typhoon Dujuan will move closer to Honshu during the weekend.

Typhoon Saudel Brings Wind and Rain to Ryukyu Islands

Typhoon Saudel brought wind and rain to the Ryukyu Islands on Tuesday.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Typhoon Saudel was located at latitude 27.4°N and longitude 128.5°E which put the center about 85 miles (135 km) east-northeast of Okinawa.  Saudel was moving toward the west-northwest at 13 m.p.h. (21 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 120 m.p.h. (195 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 963 mb.

A weather station in Okinoerabu, Japan reported a sustained wind speed of 69 m.p.h. (111 km/h).

A weather station in Imagi, Japan reported 7.75 inches (197 mm) of rain.

Typhoon Saudel was maintaining its intensity on Tuesday.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Saudel’s circulation.  Storms near the center of Saudel generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the typhoon.  The removal of mass in the upper levels was nearly equal to the convergence of mass in the lower levels of the atmosphere.  So, the surface pressure remained nearly constant on Tuesday.

The circulation around Typhoon Saudel was still large.  Winds to typhoon force extended out 85 miles (135 km) from the center of Saudel’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 165 miles (265 km) from the center of Typhoon Saudel.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Typhoon Saudel is 16.5.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 24.2 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 40.7.  Typhoon Saudel is similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Gustav when Gustav hit Louisiana in 2008.

Typhoon Saudel will move through an environment that will be unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Saudel will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  However, Saudel will move into a mass of drier air that is east of China.  Typhoon Saudel is likely to weaken gradually during the next 24 hours because of the effects of the drier air.

Typhoon Saudel will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system that is over the Western North Pacific Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Saudel toward the west-northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Typhoon Saudel will move slowly away from the Ryukyu Islands.  The center of Saudel will pass north of Taiwan in a couple of days.  Typhoon Saudel could make landfall on the east coast of China in three days.

Typhoon Saudel will continue to produce strong winds and locally heavy rain over the Ryukyu Islands as it moves slowly away from those islands.  Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations.

Typhoon Saudel Moves Toward Ryukyu Islands

Typhoon Saudel moved toward the Ryukyu Islands on Sunday.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Typhoon Saudel was located at latitude 23.5°N and longitude 137.2°E which put the center about 670 miles (1085 km) east-southeast of Okinawa.  Saudel was moving toward the west-northwest at 17 m.p.h. (28 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 125 m.p.h. (200 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 155 m.p.h. (250 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 945 mb.

Typhoon Saudel strengthened a little on Sunday as it moved toward the Ryukyu Islands.  A circular eye with a diameter of 12 miles (19 km) was at the center of Saudel’s circulation.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Typhoon Saudel.  Storms near the center of Saudel generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the typhoon.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The size of the circulation around Typhoon Saudel increased again on Sunday.  Winds to typhoon force extended out 90 miles (145 km) from the center of Saudel’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 195 miles (315 km) from the center of Typhoon Saudel.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Typhoon Saudel is 23.6.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 27.5 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 51.1.  Typhoon Saudel is similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Wilma when Wilma hit South Florida in 2005.

Typhoon Saudel will move through an environment that will be favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Saudel will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Typhoon Saudel could intensify during the next 24 hours unless an eyewall replacement cycle occurs.   If the inner end of a rainband wraps around the existing eye and eyewall, then concentric eyewalls could form.  If concentric eyewalls form, then an eyewall replacement cycle would cause Typhoon Saudel to weaken, at least temporarily.

Typhoon Saudel will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system that is over the Western North Pacific Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Saudel toward the northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, the center of Typhoon Saudel will approach the Ryukyu Islands in 48 hours.