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Sean Weakens to a Tropical Depression

Former Tropical Storm weakened to a tropical depression east of the Leeward Islands on Saturday. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Depression Sean was located at latitude 16.0°N and longitude 44.2°W which put it about 1255 miles (2020 km) east of the Northern Leeward Islands. Sean was moving toward the northwest at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1007 mb.

Former Tropical Storm Sean weakened slowly during the past 36 hours and the U.S. National Hurricane Center downgraded Sean to a tropical depression on Saturday morning. A few more thunderstorms developed near the center of Sean’s circulation after it was downgraded to a tropical depression. There were also a few more thunderstorms in bands revolving around the center of Tropical Depression Sea. However, some bands still consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.

Tropical Depression Sean will move through an environment mostly unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Sean will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C. It will move under the southern side of an upper level ridge over the eastern Atlantic Ocean. The upper level ridge will produce northeasterly winds that will blow toward the top of Sean’s circulation. Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear. Tropical Depression Sean will move into an area where there is drier air. The vertical wind shear and the drier air are likely to cause Tropical Depression Sean to weaken during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Depression Sean will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system that extends from West Africa to the central Atlantic Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Sean toward the west-northwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, Tropical Depression Sean will remain far east of the Northern Leeward Islands.

Typhoon Noru Makes Landfall in Central Vietnam

Typhoon Noru made landfall on the coast of central Vietnam near Da Nang on Tuesday evening. At 7:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Typhoon Noru was located at latitude 16.1°N and longitude 108.1°E which put it about 5 miles (10 km) north of Da Nang, Vietnam. Noru was moving toward the west at 15 m.p.h. (24 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 110 m.p.h. (175 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 130 m.p.h. (210 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 959 mb.

The core of Typhoon Noru made landfall near Da Nang, Vietnam on Tuesday evening. The distribution of thunderstorms around Noru became asymmetrical as it approached the coast of Vietnam. Many of the thunderstorms were occurring in the western half of Noru’s circulation. Typhoon Noru was moving under the southern part of an upper level ridge over China. The ridge was producing easterly winds that were blowing toward the top of Noru’s circulation. Those winds were causing vertical wind shear and the wind shear was causing the asymmetrical distribution of thunderstorms.

Winds to typhoon force extended out 25 miles (40 km) from the center of Typhoon Noru. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 120 miles (195 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Typhoon Noru was 19.2. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 10.9 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 30.1. Typhoon Noru was capable of causing regional serious damage.

Typhoon Noru will move south of a high pressure system over China. The high pressure system will steer Noru toward the west during the next 36 hours. Typhoon Noru will weaken as it moves farther inland. On its anticipated track Typhoon Noru will move across central Vietnam during the next 12 hours. Noru will move over southern Laos and eastern Thailand. The strongest winds will occur in the area around Da Nang and Hue. Typhoon Noru will drop locally heavy rain over central Vietnam, southern Laos and eastern Thailand. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Elsewhere over the Western North Pacific Ocean, Tropical Storm Kulap strengthened gradually southeast of Japan. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Storm Kulap was located at latitude 31.7°N and longitude 145.2°E which put it about 395 miles (640 km) southeast of Tokyo, Japan. Kulap was moving toward the northeast at 21 m.p.h. (33 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 988 mb.

Typhoon Noru Moves Toward Vietnam

Typhoon Noru moved over the South China Sea toward Vietnam on Monday afternoon. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Typhoon Noru was located at latitude 15.9°N and longitude 113.3E which put it about 380 miles (615 km) east of Da Nang, Vietnam. Noru was moving toward the west at 20 m.p.h. (32 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 105 m.p.h. (165 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 125 m.p.h. (200 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 964 mb.

Typhoon Noru strengthened on Monday afternoon as it moved toward central Vietnam. A small circular eye was present at the center of Noru’s circulation. The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Typhoon Noru. Storms near the core generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the typhoon.

The circulation around Typhoon Noru increased in size on Monday. Winds to typhoon force extended out 50 miles (80 km) from the center of Noru’s circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 180 miles (290 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Typhoon Norw was 17.8. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 16.9 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 34.7. Typhoon Nora was capable of causing regional serious damage.

Typhoon Noru will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Noru will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30˚C. It will move under the southern side of an upper level ridge over eastern China. The ridge will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of Noru’s circulation. Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear, but the wind shear will not be strong enough to prevent intensification. Typhoon Noru is likely to intensify during the next 24 hours. Noru could strengthen to the equivalent of a major hurricane.

Typhoon Noru will move around the southern side of a high pressure system over China. The high pressure system will steer Noru toward the west during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track Typhoon Noru will hit the coast of Vietnam near Da Nang in 24 hours. Typhoon Noru will be capable of causing major damage when it hits central Vietnam. Noru will bring strong, gusty winds and locally heavy rain to central Vietnam. Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations.

Elsewhere over the Western North Pacific Ocean, Tropical Storm Kulap passed near Iwo To. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Storm Kulap was located at latitude 27.4°N and longitude 141.8°E which put it about 140 miles (225 km) north-northeast of Iwo To. Kulap was moving toward the north at 20 m.p.h. (32 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 997 mb.

Tropical Storm Chanthu Brings Gusty Winds and Rain to Japan

Tropical Storm Chanthu brought gusty winds and rain to parts of Japan on Friday. At 6:00 a.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Storm Chanthu was located at latitude 33.7°N and longitude 130.6°E which put it about 10 miles (15 km) east of Fukuoka, Japan. Chanthu was moving toward the east-northeast at 17 m.p.h. (28 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 990 mb.

Tropical Storm Chanthu brought gusty winds to northern Kyushu and western Honshu on Friday. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 115 miles (185 km) from the center of Chanthu. The strongest winds were occurring in the parts of Chanthu’s circulation that were over water and in the mountains of western Japan. The heaviest rain was falling on the eastern side of Tropical Storm Chanthu.

Tropical Storm Chanthu will be steered quickly toward the east-northeast by the westerly winds in the middle latitudes. Tropical Storm Chanthu will move across Honshu during the next two days. The center of Tropical Storm Chanthu could be near Kyoto in 24 hours and near Tokyo in 36 hours. The upper level westerly winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear. The wind shear and movement across land will cause Chanthu to weaken gradually during the next 48 hours.

Tropical Storm Chanthu Spins between Japan and China

Tropical Storm Chanthu spun between Japan and China on Wednesday. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Storm Chanthu was located at latitude 30.5°N and longitude 125.2°E which put it about 360 miles (585 km) west-southwest of Kagoshima, Japan. Chanthu was moving toward the northwest at 4 m.p.h. (6 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 991 mb.

Tropical Storm Chanthu remained nearly stationary on Wednesday as it spun over the East China Sea between Japan and China. The atmospheric environment around Chanthu became more favorable for intensification when an upper level ridge moved over the tropical storm. Chanthu strengthened when the upper level ridge enhanced the upper level divergence that pumped more mass away from the tropical storm. The enhanced upper level divergence also contributed to the formation of more thunderstorms in the bands revolving around the center of Tropical Storm Chanthu. A rainband wrapped most of the way around the center of Chanthu and a new eye appeared to be forming at the center of the tropical storm. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 190 miles (305 km) on the northern side of Chanthu. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 90 miles (145 km) in the southern half of the circulation.

Tropical Storm Chanthu will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Chanthu will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 27˚C. Chanthu could mix cooler water to the surface while it remains nearly stationary, which could inhibit intensification. The upper level ridge will continue to enhance divergence, which will be favorable for intensification. Tropical Storm Chanthu is likely to intensify during the next 24 hours and it could strengthen back to a typhoon.

The steering winds are weak in the middle of the upper level ridge and Tropical Storm Chanthu may not move much during the next 12 to 18 hours. An upper level trough over eastern Asia will move eastward on Thursday. The upper level trough will start to steer Chanthu toward the west in 12 to 18 hours. On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Chanthu could approach Kyushu in 30 hours. Chanthu could be a typhoon when it reaches Kyushu. It will bring strong, gusty winds and locally heavy rain. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Chanthu Weakens to a Tropical Storm East of Shanghai

Former Typhoon Chanthu weakened to a tropical storm east of Shanghai on Monday night. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Storm Chanthu was located at latitude 31.3°N and longitude 123.9°E which put it about 150 miles (240 km) east of Shanghai, China. Chanthu was moving toward the northeast at 4 m.p.h. (6 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 988 mb.

Former Typhoon Chanthu weakened to a tropical storm east of Shanghai. An upper level trough over eastern China was producing southwesterly winds that were blowing toward the top of Tropical Storm Chanthu. Those winds were causing moderate vertical wind shear. In addition, the circulation around Chanthu was pulling drier air from Asia into the tropical storm. The drier air was mixing with the rainbands. The eye and eyewall at the center of former Typhoon Chanthu weakened. Thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the northeastern periphery of Tropical Storm Chanthu. Bands in other parts of Chanthu consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 200 miles (300 km) from the center of Chanthu.

Tropical Storm Chanthu will be in an area where the steering winds are weak during the next 24 hours. Chanthu will not move very much during that time period. Since Tropical Storm Chanthu will not move very far, its circulation will mix cooler water to the surface. A combination of moderate vertical wind shear, drier air and cooler water will cause Tropical Storm Chanthu to weaken gradually. Southwesterly winds in the middle latitudes will start to steer Chanthu toward the northeast in a day or so.

Typhoon Chanthu Moves Away from Taiwan

Typhoon Chanthu moved away from Taiwan on Sunday. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Typhoon Chanthu was located at latitude 26.8°N and longitude 122.7°E which put it about 105 miles (165 km) northeast of Taipei, Taiwan. Chanthu was moving toward the north-northeast at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 110 m.p.h. (175 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 130 m.p.h. (210 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 965 mb.

Typhoon Chanthu moved away from Taiwan on Sunday and the weather conditions were improving there. The core of Chanthu passed east of Taiwan and so it remained intact. A small circular eye was present at the center of Typhoon Chanthu. The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Multiple bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Chanthu. Storms near the core generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the north of the typhoon.

The overall circulation of Typhoon Chanthu was larger after it moved past Taiwan. Winds to typhoon force extended out 25 miles (40 km) from the center of Chanthu. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 190 miles (305 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Typhoon Chanthu was 19.2. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 10.7 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 29.9. Typhoon Chanthu was capable of causing regional serious damage.

Typhoon Chanthu will move through an environment that will be mostly unfavorable for intensification during the next 36 hours. Chanthu will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29˚C. An upper level trough over eastern China will produce southwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Chanthu’s circulation. Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear. The wind shear will likely be strong enough to cause Typhoon Chanthu to weaken gradually.

Typhoon Chanthu will move around the western side of a subtropical high pressure system over the Western North Pacific Ocean. The high will steer Chanthu toward the north during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track Typhoon Chantu will continue to move away from Taiwan. Chanthu could approach the coast of Chine south of Shanghai in 24 hours. Typhoon Chanthu will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to the parts of east coast of China on Monday.

Elsewhere over the Western North Pacific Ocean, Tropical Depression Conson weakened near the coast of Vietnam. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Depression Conson was located at latitude 15.4°N and longitude 109.1°E which put it about 70 miles (110 km) southeast of Da Nang, Vietnam. Conson was stationary. The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1003 mb.

Typhoon Chanthu Brings Wind and Rain to Taiwan

Typhoon Chanthu brought wind and rain to Taiwan on Saturday morning. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Typhoon Chanthu was located at latitude 22.2°N and longitude 121.8°E which put it about 100 miles (160 km) south-southeast of Hualien, Taiwan. Chanthu was moving toward the north-northeast at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 140 m.p.h. (225 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 165 m.p.h. (270 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 938 mb.

Bands in the northwestern part of Typhoon Chanthu brought wind and rain to eastern Taiwan on Saturday morning. Typhoon Chanthu appeared to be in the middle of another eyewall replacement cycle. A small eye was present at the center of Chanthu. The eye was surrounded by concentric eyewalls. The strongest winds were occurring in the innermost eyewall. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Typhoon Chanthu. Storms near the core generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the typhoon.

The current eyewall replacement cycle increased the overall size of the circulation around Typhoon Chanthu. Winds to typhoon force extended out 35 miles (55 km) from the center of Chanthu. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 150 miles (240 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Typhoon Chanthu was 28.3. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 12.5 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 40.8. Typhoon Chanthu was capable of causing regional severe damage.

Typhoon Chanthu will move over water capable of supporting an intense typhoon during the next 24 hours. Chanthu will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30˚C. It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. The current eyewall replacement cycle could cause Typhoon Chanthu to weaken if the innermost eyewall dissipates.

Typhoon Chanthu will move around the western end of a high pressure system over the Western North Pacific. The high pressure system will steer Chanthu toward the north during the next 36 hours. On its anticipated track the center of Typhoon Chanthu will be near northeastern Taiwan in 18 hours. Typhoon Chanthu will drop very heavy rain over eastern Taiwan. The risk of flash floods is very high. Even though the core of Chanthu may pass just east of Taiwan, strong winds are likely to cause damage along the east coast of Taiwan.

Elsewhere over the Western North Pacific Ocean, Tropical Storm Conson was approaching toward central Vietnam. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Storm Conson was located at latitude 15.4°N and longitude 109.0°E which put it about 65 miles (105 km) southeast of Da Nang, Vietnam. Conson was moving toward the west-southwest at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 997 mb.

Typhoon Chanthu Brings Wind and Rain to Northeast Luzon

Typhoon Chanthu brought wind and rain to northeastern Luzon on Friday. At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Friday the center of Typhoon Chanthu was located at latitude 18.3°N and longitude 123.1°E which put it about 100 miles (160 km) east of Aparri, Philippines. Chanthu was moving toward the northwest at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 165 m.p.h. (265 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 200 m.p.h. (320 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 915 mb.

Even though the center of Typhoon Chanthu was passing northeast of northeastern Luzon, bands on the western side of Chanthu brought gusty wind and heavy rain to northeastern Luzon. Typhoon Chanthu strengthened back to the equivalent of a Category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale after it completed an eyewall replacement cycle on Thursday. A circular eye was present at the center of Chanthu. The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Storms near the core of Chanthu generated strong upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the typhoon in all directions.

The circulation around Typhoon Chanthu was relatively small. Winds to typhoon force extended out 45 miles (75 km) from the center of Chanthu. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 90 miles (145 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Typhoon Chanthu was 36.8. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 14.1 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 50.9. Typhoon Chanthu was capable of causing regional catastrophic damage.

Typhoon Chanthu will move over water capable of supporting an intense typhoon during the next 24 hours. Chanthu will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30˚C. It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. If the inner end of a rainband wraps around the existing eye and eyewall, another eyewall replacement cycle could start. If another eyewall replacement cycle occurs, Typhoon Chanthu would weaken, but the size of the circulation would increase.

Typhoon Chanthu will move around the western end of a high pressure system during the next few days. The high pressure system will steer Chanthu toward the northwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track Typhoon Chanthu will gradually move away from northeastern Luzon. Chantu will approach southern Taiwan in 24 hours. Typhoon Chanthu will bring very strong winds and heavy rain to Taiwan. Widespread flash floods could occur.

Elsewhere over the Western North Pacific Ocean, Tropical Storm Conson moved toward central Vietnam. At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Storm Conson was located at latitude 15.6°N and longitude 111.7°E which put it about 250 miles (400 km) east of Da Nang, Vietnam. Conson was moving toward the west at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 997 mb.

Dangerous Typhoon Chanthu Nears Northeast Luzon

Dangerous Typhoon Chanthu neared northeastern Luzon on Thursday night. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Typhoon Chanthu was located at latitude 17.5°N and longitude 123.7°E which put it about 135 miles (215 km) southeast of Aparri, Philippines. Chanthu was moving toward the west-northwest at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 150 m.p.h. (240 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 185 m.p.h. (295 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 925 mb.

Typhoon Chanthu completed an eyewall replacement cycle on Thursday and Chanthu was strengthening again. The original eye and eyewall were almost entirely dissipated. A new, slightly larger eye was visible at the center of Typhoon Chanthu on satellite images. The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Chanthu. Storms near the core generated strong upper level divergence that pumped large quantities of mass away from the typhoon.

Although the eyewall replacement cycle increased the size of the core of Typhoon Chanthu, the total circulation around Chanthu was relative small. Winds to typhoon force extended out 45 miles (75 km) from the center of Chanthu. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 90 miles (145 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Typhoon Chanthu was 31.6. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 13.7 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 45.3. Typhoon Chanthu was capable of causing regional severe damage.

Typhoon Chanthu will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 12 hours. Chanthu will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30˚C. It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. Typhoon Chanthu could strengthen during the next 12 hours. Chanthu will weaken if the core of the typhoon moves over northeastern Luzon. If the core of Typhoon Chanthu passes northeast of Luzon, then it could maintain its intensity during the next 36 hours.

Typhoon Chanthu will move around the western end of a high pressure system during the next few days. The high pressure system will steer Chanthu toward the northwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track the core of Typhoon Chanthu will pass very close to northeastern Luzon. Chanthu could cause severe damage to northeastern Luzon. Typhoon Chantu will bring very strong winds and locally heavy rain. Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods. Typhoon Chantu could affect Taiwan during the weekend.

Elsewhere over the Western North Pacific Ocean, Tropical Storm Conson moved toward central Vietnam. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Storm Conson was located at latitude 15.8°N and longitude 112.2°E which put it about 280 miles (460 km) east of Da Nang, Vietnam. Conson was moving toward the west-southwest at 13 m.p.h. (20 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 994 mb.