Tag Archives: Taiwan

Typhoon Champi Brings Wind and Rain to Southern Ryukyu Islands

Leave a reply

Typhoon Champi brought wind and rain to the southern Ryukyu Islands and to northeastern Taiwan on Friday.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Friday the center of Typhoon Champi was located at latitude 25.3°N and longitude 122.6°E which put the center about 75 miles (120 km) east of Taipei, Taiwan.  Champi was moving toward the north-northwest at 16 m.p.h. (16 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 115 m.p.h. (185 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 145 m.p.h. (235 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 949 mb.

A weather station on Ishigakijima Island reported a sustained wind speed of 78 m.p.h. (125 km/h).  The weather station also reported 4.94 inches (154.0 mm) of rain.

A weather station in Ohara, Japan reported a sustained wind speed of 75 m.p.h. (121 km/h).

A weather station on Yonagunijima Island reported a sustained wind speed of 66 m.p.h. (107 km/h).  The weather station also reported 8.33 inches (211.5 mm) of rain.

Typhoon Champi was the equivalent of a major hurricane on Friday morning.  Winds to typhoon force extended out 85 miles (135 km) from the center of Champi’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 250 miles (400 km) from the center of Typhoon Champi.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Typhoon Champi was 20.6.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 31.8 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 52.4.  Typhoon Champi was similar in intensity to Hurricane Irma when Irma hit south Florida in 2017.  Champi is larger than Irma was.

Typhoon Champi will move around the western end of a high pressure system that is over the Western North Pacific Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Champi toward the north during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Typhoon Champi will remain east of China.

Typhoon Champi will move through an environment that will be unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Champi will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 26°C.  It will move under the eastern side of an upper level trough that is near the east coast of China.  The upper level trough will produce strong southwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Champi’s circulation.  Those winds will cause strong vertical wind shear.  Champi will also continue to move through a mass of drier air.  Typhoon Champi is likely to weaken steadily during the next 24 hours because of the effects of strong vertical wind shear and drier air.

Elsewhere over the Western North Pacific Ocean, Tropical Depression 30W formed northwest of Kwajalein.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Depression 30W was located at latitude 10.9°N and longitude 166.3°E which put the center about 185 miles (300 km) northwest of Kwajalein.  The tropical depression moving toward the northwest at 2 m.p.h. (3 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1004 mb.

Typhoon Champi Approaches Southern Ryukyu Islands

Leave a reply

Typhoon Champi was approaching the southern Ryukyu Islands on Wednesday evening.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Typhoon Champi was located at latitude 20.6°N and longitude 125.7°E which put the center about 295 miles (475 km) south-southeast of Ishigakijima, Japan.  Champi was moving toward the west-northwest at 11 m.p.h. (17 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 130 m.p.h. (210 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 160 m.p.h. (260 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 940 mb.

Typhoon Champi weakened on Wednesday.  Even though Champi weakened, it was still a very well organized typhoon.  A circular eye with a diameter of 35 miles (55 km) was at the center of Champi’s circulation.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the the center of Typhoon Champi.  Storms near the center of Champi generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the typhoon.  The removal of mass in the upper levels was less than the convergence of mass in the lower levels of the atmosphere.  So, the surface pressure increased on Wednesday.

The circulation around Typhoon Champi was large.  Winds to typhoon force extended out 100 miles (160 km) from the center of Champi’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 345 miles (555 km) from the center of Typhoon Champi.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Typhoon Champi is 25.1.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 34.2 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 59.3.  Typhoon Champi is similar in size to Hurricane Ivan when Ivan hit the northern Gulf Coast in 2004.  Champi is stronger than Ivan was.

Typhoon Champi will move through an environment that will be unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Champi will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C.  It will move under the eastern side of an upper level trough that is near the east coast of China.  The upper level trough will produce southwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Champi’s circulation.  Those winds will cause the vertical wind shear to increase.   Champi will also move into a region of drier air on Thursday.  Typhoon Champi is likely to weaken during the next 24 hours because of more vertical wind shear and drier air.

Typhoon Champi will move around the western part of a high pressure system that is over the Western North Pacific Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Champi toward the north-northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, the center of Typhoon Champi will be near Ishigakijima in 24 hours.

Typhoon Champi will bring strong winds and heavy rain to the southern Ryukyu Islands.  Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations.

Typhoon Champi could also bring strong winds and heavy rain to parts of Taiwan.

Typhoon Champi Strengthens to Equivalent of Cat. 5 Hurricane

Leave a reply

Typhoon Champi strengthened to the equivalent of a Category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale as it moved over the Western North Pacific Ocean north of Yap on Sunday night.  At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Monday the center of Typhoon Champi was located at latitude 14.6°N and longitude 137.9°E which put the center about 330 miles (535 km) north of Yap.  Champi was moving toward the west-northwest at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 160 m.p.h. (260 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 105 m.p.h. (315 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 917 mb.

Typhoon Champi intensified to the equivalent of a Category 5 hurricane on Saturday night.  A circular eye with a diameter of 30 miles (50 km) was at the center of Champi’s circulation.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the the center of Typhoon Champi.  Storms near the center of Champi generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the typhoon.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The size of the circulation around Typhoon Champi increased on Sunday.  Winds to typhoon force extended out 65 miles (105 km) from the center of Champi’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 220 miles (350 km) from the center of Typhoon Champi.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Typhoon Champi is 35.0.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 20.8 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 55.8. Typhoon Champi is similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Maria when Maria hit Puerto Rico in 2017.

Typhoon Champi will move through an environment that will be favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Champi will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Typhoon Champi could intensify during the next 24 hours unless the inner end of a rainband wraps around the existing eye and eyewall.  If concentric eyewalls form, then an eyewall replacement cycle would cause Champi to weaken.

Typhoon Champi will move around the southern side of a high pressure system that is over the Western North Pacific Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Champi toward the west-northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Typhoon Champi will move toward Taiwan and the southern Ryukyu Islands.

Typhoon Saudel Brings Wind and Rain to Ryukyu Islands

Typhoon Saudel brought wind and rain to the Ryukyu Islands on Tuesday.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Typhoon Saudel was located at latitude 27.4°N and longitude 128.5°E which put the center about 85 miles (135 km) east-northeast of Okinawa.  Saudel was moving toward the west-northwest at 13 m.p.h. (21 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 120 m.p.h. (195 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 963 mb.

A weather station in Okinoerabu, Japan reported a sustained wind speed of 69 m.p.h. (111 km/h).

A weather station in Imagi, Japan reported 7.75 inches (197 mm) of rain.

Typhoon Saudel was maintaining its intensity on Tuesday.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Saudel’s circulation.  Storms near the center of Saudel generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the typhoon.  The removal of mass in the upper levels was nearly equal to the convergence of mass in the lower levels of the atmosphere.  So, the surface pressure remained nearly constant on Tuesday.

The circulation around Typhoon Saudel was still large.  Winds to typhoon force extended out 85 miles (135 km) from the center of Saudel’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 165 miles (265 km) from the center of Typhoon Saudel.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Typhoon Saudel is 16.5.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 24.2 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 40.7.  Typhoon Saudel is similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Gustav when Gustav hit Louisiana in 2008.

Typhoon Saudel will move through an environment that will be unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Saudel will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  However, Saudel will move into a mass of drier air that is east of China.  Typhoon Saudel is likely to weaken gradually during the next 24 hours because of the effects of the drier air.

Typhoon Saudel will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system that is over the Western North Pacific Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Saudel toward the west-northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Typhoon Saudel will move slowly away from the Ryukyu Islands.  The center of Saudel will pass north of Taiwan in a couple of days.  Typhoon Saudel could make landfall on the east coast of China in three days.

Typhoon Saudel will continue to produce strong winds and locally heavy rain over the Ryukyu Islands as it moves slowly away from those islands.  Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations.

Typhoon Dolphin Hits Okinawa

Typhoon Dolphin hit Okinawa on Thursday evening.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Typhoon Dolphin was located at latitude 27.2°N and longitude 128.3°E which put the center about 25 miles (40 km) north-northeast of Okinawa.  Dolphin was moving toward the west at 17 m.p.h. (28 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 120 m.p.h. (195 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 955 mb.

Typhoon Dolphin started to intensify on Thursday evening as it approached Okinawa.  A small circular eye was visible at the center of Dolphin’s circulation on satellite and radar images.   Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Dolphin’s circulation.    Storms near the core of Dolphin generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the typhoon.  The removal of mass in the upper levels was greater than the convergence of mass in the lower levels of the atmosphere.  So, the surface pressure decreased a little on Thursday.

The eye of Typhoon Dolphin was passing just to the north of Okinawa.  The southern part of the eyewall of Dolphin was passing over northern Okinawa.

A weather station at Naha Airport (ROAH) in Okinawa reported a sustained wind speed of 46 m.p.h. (74 km/h) and a wind gust of 61 m.p.h. (98 km/h).

Typhoon Dolphin was a large typhoon.  Winds to typhoon force extended out 140 miles (220 km) in the northern half of Dolphin’s circulation.  Winds to typhoon force extended out 70 miles (110 km) in the southern half of Typhoon Dolphin.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 310 miles (500 km) from the center of Dolphin’s circulation.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Typhoon Dolphin is 16.5.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 38.3 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 54.8

Typhoon Dolphin will move through an environment that will be favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Dolphin will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C.  It will move under the middle of an upper level ridge that is over the Western North Pacific Ocean.  The upper level winds are weak near the middle of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Typhoon Dolphin could intensify on Friday as long as Okinawa does not disrupt the inner core of its circulation..

Typhoon Dolphin will move around the southern side of a high pressure system that is over the Western North Pacific Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Dolphin toward the west during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, the center of Typhoon Dolphin will move west of the Ryukyu Islands on Friday.  Dolphin could hit the east coast of China in less than 48 hours.

Typhoon Dolphin will continue to bring strong winds and heavy rain to the Ryukyu Islands on Friday.  The strongest winds and heaviest rain will occur in Okinawa.  Heavy rain will cause flash floods in some locations.  Typhoon Dolphin could also cause a storm surge of up to 10 feet (3 meters) along the coast of some of the islands.

Even the center of Typhoon Dolphin will pass north of Taiwan, bands in the southern part of Dolphin’s circulation will drop heavy rain on northern Taiwan.

Typhoon Dolphin will also bring strong winds and heavy rain to eastern China.

Elsewhere over the Western North Pacific Ocean, Tropical Storm Chan-hom formed southeast of Japan.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Storm Chan-hom was located at latitude 29.6°N and longitude 160.3°E which put the center about 1300 miles (2095 km) east-southeast of Tokyo, Japan.  Chan-hom was moving toward the northwest at 17 m.p.h. (28 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 987 mb.

Tropical Storm Noul Forms East of Northern Luzon

Tropical Storm Noul formed over the Western North Pacific Ocean east of northern Luzon on Thursday afternoon.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Storm Noul was located at latitude 18.6°N and longitude 124.4°E which put the center about 180 miles (290 km) east of Aparri, Philippines.  Noul was moving toward the west-northwest at 17 m.p.h. (28 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 998 mb.

A low pressure system over the Western North Pacific Ocean east of northern Luzon strengthened on Thursday afternoon and the Japan Meteorological Agency designated the system as Tropical Storm Noul.

More thunderstorms were forming near the center of Tropical Storm Noul.  Thunderstorms were also occurring in bands in the western half of Noul’s circulation.  Bands in the eastern side of Tropical Storm Noul consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Storm near the center of Noul began to generate upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the west of the tropical storm.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The distribution of wind speeds in Tropical Storm Noul was also asymmetrical.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 175 miles (280 km) in the southern side of Noul’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 80 miles (130 km) in the northern side of Tropical Storm Noul.

Tropical Storm Noul will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Noul will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C.  It will move under the southern part of an upper level ridge that is centered east of China.  The upper level ridge will produce northeasterly winds that will blow toward the top of Noul’s circulation.  Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear, but the wind shear will not be enough to prevent intensification.  Tropical Storm Noul will intensify during the next 24 hours.  Noul is likely to strengthen to a typhoon by the weekend.

Tropical Storm Noul will move around the southern part of a high pressure system that is over the Western North Pacific Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Noul toward the west-northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, the center of Tropical Storm Noul will pass south of Taiwan on Friday.  Noul is likely to hit southeastern China during the weekend.

Tropical Storm Noul will bring gusty winds and heavy rain to northern Luzon.  Heavy rain could cause flash floods.  Noul will also bring strong winds and heavy rain to Taiwan.  Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods.  Tropical Storm Noul is likely to be a typhoon when it hits southeastern China.

Typhoon Bavi Brings Wind and Rain to Ryukyu Islands

Typhoon Bavi brought wind and rain to the southern Ryukyu Islands on Friday.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Typhoon Bavi was located at latitude 25.6°N and longitude 124.1°E which put the center about 165 miles (265 km) east-northeast of Taipei, Taiwan.  Bavi was moving toward the north-northwest at 15 m.p.h. (24 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 115 m.p.h. (185 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 953 mb.

A weather station in Ishigakijima Island reported at sustained wind speed of 49 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  A weather station in Nakasuji, Japan reported a sustained wind speed of 53 m.p.h. (85 km/h).

Typhoon Bavi strengthened a little as it approached the southern Ryukyu Islands on Friday.  More thunderstorms formed near the center of Bavi’s circulation.  Concentric eyewalls appeared for a time on radar images from the Japan Meteorological Agency.  A small inner eye and eyewall was surrounded by a much larger outer eyewall that was a remnant from the last eyewall replacement cycle.

The distribution of thunderstorms in Typhoon Bavi continued to be asymmetrical.  Thunderstorms were occurring mostly in bands in the southern half of Bavi’s circulation.  Bands in the northern half of Typhoon Bavi consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Storms near the center of Bavi generated more upper level divergence.  The removal of more mass caused the surface pressure to decrease on Friday.

Typhoon Bavi continued to be a very large typhoon.  Winds to typhoon force extended out 175 miles (280 km) from the center of Bavi’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 370 miles (595 km) from the center of Typhoon Bavi.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Typhoon Bavi is 13.9.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 48.2 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 62.1.  Typhoon Bavi is similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Sandy when Sandy hit the east coast of the U.S. in 2012.

Typhoon Bavi will move through an environment that will be marginally favorable for intensification during the next 12 hours.  Bavi will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Typhoon Bavi will move through a region of drier air that is near eastern of Chin.a  The drier air will inhibit intensification.  Typhoon Bavi could maintain its intensity during the next 12 hours.

Typhoon Bavi will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system that is over the Western North Pacific Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Bavi toward the northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, the center of Typhoon Bavi will reach the east coast of China near Wenzhou in 12 hours.

Typhoon Bavi will bring strong winds and heavy rain to Zhejiang.  Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations.  Typhoon Bavi could also cause a storm surge of up to 10 feet (3 meters) along parts of the east coast of China.

Typhoon Bavi Approaches Southern Ryukyu Islands

Typhoon Bavi was approaching the southern Ryukyu Islands on Thursday evening.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Typhoon Bavi was located at latitude 21.3°N and longitude 126.9°E which put the center about 360 miles (580 km) southeast of Ishigakijima, Japan.  Bavi was moving toward the northwest at 13 m.p.h. (21 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 105 m.p.h. (165 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 964 mb.

Typhoon Bavi weakened on Thursday when it moved into a region of drier air that was east of Taiwan.  The drier air caused many of the thunderstorms in the northern half of Bavi’s circulation to dissipate.  Bands in the northern side of Typhoon Bavi consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Thunderstorms were still occurring in bands in the southern half of Bavi’s circulation.  Storms near the center of Bavi generated less upper level divergence.  The removal of mass in the upper levels was less than the convergence of mass in the lower levels of the atmosphere.  So, the surface pressure continued to increase on Thursday.

The inner end of a rainband was wrapping back around the southern and eastern sides of the center of Typhoon Bavi on Thursday evening.  A new small eye appeared to be developing at the center of Bavi’s circulation.

Even though Typhoon Bavi weakened on Thursday, it continued to be a very large typhoon.  Winds to typhoon force extended out 185 miles (295 km) from the center of Bavi’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 370 miles (595 km) from the center of Typhoon Bavi.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Typhoon Bavi is 12.7.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 57.5 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 70.2.  Typhoon Bavi is similar in intensity to Hurricane Sandy when Sandy hit the east coast of the U.S. in 2012.  Typhoon Bavi is larger than Hurricane Sandy was.

Typhoon Bavi will move through an environment that will be somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Bavi will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Typhoon Bavi will continue to move through a region of drier air that is east of Taiwan.  The drier air will inhibit intensification, but drier air may have less of an effect on Friday.  Typhoon Bavi could intensify during the next 24 hours, especially if a new eye and eyewall develop at the center of Bavi’s circulation.

Typhoon Bavi will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system that is over the Western North Pacific Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Bavi toward the northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, the center of Typhoon Bavi will reach the southern Ryukyu Islands in 18 hours.  The center of Bavi will be near northeastern Taiwan in 24 hours.

Typhoon Bavi will bring strong winds and heavy rain to the southern Ryukyu Islands and to Taiwan.  Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations.  Typhoon Bavi could cause a storms surge of up to 10 feet (3 meters) along the coast of the southern Ryukyu Islands and northern Taiwan.

Typhoon Bavi Moves Toward Southern Ryukyu Islands

Typhoon Bavi continued to move toward the southern Ryukyu Islands and Taiwan on Wednesday.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Typhoon Bavi was located at latitude 18.6°N and longitude 129.6°E which put the center about 605 miles (975 km) southeast of Ishigakijima, Japan.  Bavi was moving toward the northwest at 13 m.p.h. (21 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 125 m.p.h. (200 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 155 m.p.h. (250 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 944 mb.

The cumulative effects of multiple eyewall replacement cycles caused Typhoon Bavi to weaken on Wednesday.  The most recent inner eyewall weakened and a much larger eye with a diameter of 70 miles (110 km) formed at the center of Bavi’s circulation.  The large eye was surrounded by a broken ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms revolved around the center of Typhoon Bavi.  Storms near the center of Bavi generated less upper level divergence that pumped less mass away from the typhoon.  The removal of mass in the upper levels was less than the convergence of mass in the lower levels of the atmosphere.  So, the surface pressure increased again on Wednesday.

The effects of the multiple eyewall replacement cycles also created a very large circulation around typhoon Bavi.  Winds to typhoon force extended out 160 miles (260 km) from the center of Bavi’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 335 miles (540 km) from the center of Typhoon Bavi.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Typhoon Bavi is 23.6. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 54.9 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 78.5.  Typhoon Bavi is similar in intensity to Hurricane Katrina when Katrina hit Mississippi in 2005.  Typhoon Bavi is much larger than Katrina was.

Typhoon Bavi will move through an environment that will be somewhat unfavorable for a powerful typhoon during the next 24 hours.  Bavi will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  However, Typhoon Bavi will move into a region of drier air that is east of Taiwan.  The drier air will inhibit the formation of new thunderstorms in the northwestern part of Bavi’s circulaiton.  Typhoon Bavi is likely to weaken slowly during the next 24 hours because of the drier air and the lingering effects of the eyewall replacement cycles.

Typhoon Bavi will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system that is over the Western North Pacific Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Bavi toward the northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Typhoon Bavi will approach the southern Ryukyu Islands in 36 hours.  The center of Bavi will be near northeastern Taiwan in 48 hours.

Typhoon Bavi will bring strong winds and heavy rain to the southern Ryukyu Islands and to Taiwan.  Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations.  Typhoon Bavi could cause a storms surge of up to 12 feet (3.6 meters) along the coast of the southern Ryukyu Islands and northern Taiwan.

Typhoon Bavi Churns West

Typhoon Bavi continued to churn westward toward the southern Ryukyu Islands on Tuesday.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Typhoon Bavi was located at latitude 16.9°N and longitude 134.7°E which put the center about 975 miles (1575 km) east-southeast of Ishigakijima, Japan.  Bavi was moving toward the west at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 150 m.p.h. (240 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 185 m.p.h. (295 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 927 mb.

Typhoon Bavi completed another eyewall replacement cycle on Tuesday.  An circular eye with a diameter of 45 miles (75 km) was at the center of Bavi’s circulation.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms revolved around the center of Typhoon Bavi.  Storms near the center of Bavi generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the typhoon. The removal of mass in the upper levels was nearly equal to the convergence of mass in the lower levels of the atmosphere.  So, the surface pressure did not change much on Tuesday.

There was a large circulation around Typhoon Bavi.  Winds to typhoon force extended out 105 miles (165 km) from the center of Bavi’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 310 miles (500 km) from the center of Typhoon Bavi.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Typhoon Bavi is 31.6.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 37.9 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 69.5. Typhoon Bavi is similar in intensity to Hurricane Laura when Laura hit Southwest Louisiana in 2020.  Typhoon Bavi is much larger than Laura was.

Typhoon Bavi will more through an environment that will be favorable for a powerful typhoon during the next 24 hours.  Bavi will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Typhoon Bavi could maintain its intensity during the next 24 hours unless another eyewall replacement cycle occurs.

Typhoon Bavi will move around the southern side of a high pressure system that is over the Western North Pacific Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Bavi toward the west-northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Typhoon Bavi will approach the southern Ryukyu Islands and Taiwan in less than 72 hours.