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Typhoon Man-yi Hits Luzon

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Powerful Typhoon Man-yi hit Luzon on Sunday morning.  At 4:00 a.m. EST on Sunday the center of Typhoon Man-yi was located at latitude 16.2°N and longitude 121.3°E which put the center about 25 miles (40 km) north of Baler, Philippines.  Man-yi was moving toward the northwest at 15 m.p.h. (24 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 150 m.p.h. (240 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 185 m.p.h. (295 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 933 mb.

The center of Typhoon Man-yi made landfall on the east coast of Luzon near Baler on Sunday morning.  Man-yi was the equivalent of a Category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale at the time of landfall.  A circular eye with a diameter of 17 miles (28 km) was at the center of Typhoon Man-yi.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Man-yi’s circulation.

The circulation around Typhoon Man-yi was very symmetrical.  Winds to typhoon force extended out 40 miles (65 km) from the center of Man-yi’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 130 miles (210 km) from the center of Typhoon Man-yi.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Typhoon Man-yi was 31.6.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 16.0 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 47.6. Typhoon Man-yi was similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Laura when Laura hit Southwest Louisiana in 2020.

Typhoon Man-yi will move around the southern side of a high pressure system over the Western North Pacific Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Man-yi toward the northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Typhoon Man-yi will move across Luzon during the rest of today.

Typhoon Man-yi will also bring very strong winds and heavy rain to Luzon. Heavy rain will cause flash floods and mudslides.  Man-yi could also cause a storm surge of up to 13 feet (4 meters) along the coast of Luzon.  Luzon has already been hit by a series of in recent weeks. Typhoon Man-yi is capable of causing regional severe damage.  Man-yi will seriously set back efforts to recover from the previous typhoons.

Typhoon Man-yi Intensifies to Equivalent of Cat. 5 Hurricane

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Typhoon Man-yi intensified to the equivalent of a Category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale on Saturday.  At 10:00 a.m. EST on Saturday the center of Typhoon Man-yi was located at latitude 14.2°N and longitude 124.0°E which put the center about 80 miles (130 km) east of Labo, Philippines.  Man-yi was moving toward the northwest at 15 m.p.h. (24 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 160 m.p.h. (260 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 195 m.p.h. (315 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 921 mb.

Typhoon Man-yi intensified to the equivalent of a Category 5 hurricane as it approached southeastern Luzon on Saturday.  The southwestern part of Man-yi’s eyewall passed over Catanduanes Island.

Typhoon Man-yi was very impressive on satellite images.  A circular eye with a diameter of 20 miles (32 km) was at the center of Man-yi’s circulation.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Man-yi’s circulation.  Storms near the center of Man-yi generated strong upper level divergence that pumped large amounts of mass away from the typhoon in all directions. The removal of large quantities of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease rapidly.

The size of the circulation around Typhoon Man-yi increased when Man-yi intensified.  Winds to typhoon force extended out 45 miles (75 km) from the center of Man-yi’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 150 miles (240 km) from the center of Typhoon Man-yi.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Typhoon Man-yi was 35.0.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 17.6 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 52.6.  Typhoon Man-yi was similar in intensity to Hurricane Michael when Michael hit Northwest Florida in 2018.  Man-yi was bigger than Michael was.

Typhoon Man-yi will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next few hours.  Man-yi will move over water where where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move under the middle of an upper level ridge over the Western North Pacific Ocean.  The upper level winds are weak near the middle of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Typhoon Man-yi could continue to intensify during the next few hours.  However, the fact that the southwestern part of Man-yi’s eyewall passed over Catanduanes Island could halt its intensification.

Typhoon Man-yi will move around the southern side of a high pressure system over the Western North Pacific Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Man-yi toward the northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Typhoon Man-yi will reach southeastern Luzon in 12 hours.  The center of Man-yi’s circulation could make landfall northeast of Baler.

Typhoon Man-yi is already bringing destructive winds to Catanduanes Island.  Typhoon Man-yi will also bring very strong winds and heavy rain to Luzon.  Heavy rain will cause flash floods and mudslides.  Man-yi could also cause a storm surge of up to 13 feet (4 meters) along the coast of Luzon. Luzon has already been hit by a series of in recent weeks.  Typhoon Man-yi is capable of causing regional catastrophic damage.  Man-yi will seriously set back efforts to recover from the previous typhoons.

Elsewhere over the Western North Pacific Ocean, Tropical Depression Usagi was still dropping heavy rain on parts of Taiwan. At 4:00 a.m. EST on Saturday the center of Tropical Depression Usagi was located at latitude 22.3°N and longitude 120.7°E which put the center about 35 miles (55 km) south of Kaohsiung, Taiwan.  Usagi was moving toward the southeast at 4 m.p.h. (6 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 30 m.p.h. (50 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1006 mb.  Continued heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in Taiwan.

Typhoon Surigae Stalls East of Luzon

Typhoon Surigae stalled east of Luzon on Monday. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Typhoon Surigae was located at latitude 15.6°N and longitude 126.1°E which put it about 310 miles (500 km) east of Baler, Philippines. Surigae was moving toward the north-northwest at 4 m.p.h. (6 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 130 m.p.h. (210 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 160 m.p.h. (260 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 944 mb.

Typhoon Surigae completed an eyewall replacement cycle on Monday. The inner eyewall weakened to a swirl of low clouds. There was a large circular eye at the center of Surigae. The eye had a diameter of 60 miles (95 km). The large eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Surigae. Storms near the core generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the typhoon.

The eyewall replacement cycle left Typhoon Surigae with a symmetrical circulation. Winds to typhoon force extended out 65 miles (105 km) from the center of Surigae. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 180 miles (290 km) from the center. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Typhoon Surigae was 25.1. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 23.9 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 49.0.

Typhoon Surigae will move through an environment capable of supporting a strong typhoon during the next 24 hours. Surigae will be over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures will be near 29°C. It will move under the western part of an upper level ridge over the Western North Pacific Ocean. The upper level winds are weak near the end of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. Typhoon Surigae will be moving slowly and it could mix cooler water to the surface. The cooler water could cause Surigae to weaken gradually.

Typhoon Surigae will move around the western end of a subtropical high pressure system over the Western North Pacific Ocean during the next 36 hours. The high will steer Surigae toward the north-northwest during the next 36 hours. After that time Typhoon Surigae will approach the westerly winds in the middle latitudes. Those winds will turn Surigae toward the east. On its anticipated track, the core Typhoon Surigae with the strongest winds will remain east of Luzon.

Tropical Storm Saudel Brings Wind and Rain to Luzon

Tropical Storm Saudel brought wind and rain to Luzon on Tuesday. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Storm Saudel was located at latitude 15.8°N and longitude 121.6°E which put it about 120 miles (195 km) northeast of Manila, Philippines. Saudel was moving toward the west at 11 m.p.h. (17 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 997 mb.

The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) determined based on weather radar that the center of Tropical Storm Saudel made landfall on the east coast of Luzon north of Baler on Tuesday. Saudel was getting stronger at the time of landfall. The radar indicated that there was a small, tight center of circulation. Bands of showers and thunderstorms wrapped closely around the center of Tropical Storm Saudel. Other outer rainbands were revolving around the center. Satellite imagery showed that storms near the center were generating upper level divergence which pumped mass away to the west and north of the tropical storm. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 150 miles (240 km) from the center of Saudel.

Tropical Storm Saudel will move across northern Luzon during the next 12 hours. Saudel will bring gusty winds an it will drop locally heavy rain over parts of northern Luzon. Heavy rain could could cause flash floods in some locations. Tropical Storm Saudel will weaken while the center crosses Luzon. The center of Saudel is likely to emerge over the South China Sea near Baguio in about 12 hours.

Tropical Storm Saudel will move through an environment that will be favorable for intensification when it moves over the South China Sea.  Saudel will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  It will be under the southern part of an upper level ridge.  The ridge will produce easterly winds which will blow toward the top of the circulation.  Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear.  The shear will inhibit intensification but it will not be strong enough to keep Tropical Storm Saudel from intensifying. Saudel will begin to strengthen again when it moves back over water and it could intensify into a typhoon.

Tropical Storm Saudel will move south of a ridge of high pressure over eastern Asia.  The ridge will steer Saudel toward the west during the next several days.  On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Saudel will approach the coast of Vietnam in a few days.

Tropical Storm Saudel Develops East of Luzon

Tropical Storm Saudel developed east of Luzon on Monday night. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Storm Saudel was located at latitude 15.8°N and longitude 124.3°E which put it about 185 miles (300 km) east of Baler, Philippines. Saudel was moving toward the west-northwest at 15 m.p.h. (24 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1000 mb.

A low pressure system east of Luzon strengthened on Monday night and the Japan Meteorological Agency designated the system as Tropical Storm Saudel. The circulation around Tropical Storm Saudel exhibited more organization on satellite images. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Saudel. Storms near the center generated upper level divergence which pumped mass away from the tropical storm. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 100 miles (160 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Storm Saudel will move through an environment that will be somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 12 hours.  Saudel will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  It will be under the southern part of an upper level ridge.  The ridge will produce easterly winds which will blow toward the top of the circulation.  Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear.  Tropical Storm Saudel will start to move across northern Luzon in about 12 hours. Saudel will weaken while it moves over Luzon. Tropical Storm Saudel will move over the South China Sea in about 24 hours. Saudel will begin to strengthen again when it moves back over water.

Tropical Storm Saudel will move south of a ridge of high pressure over eastern Asia.  The ridge will steer Saudel toward the west-northwest.  On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Saudel will reach the coast of northern Luzon in about 12 hours. Saudel will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to northern Luzon. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some parts of Luzon. Tropical Storm Saudel could approach the coast of Vietnam in a few days.

Tropical Storm Fengshen Prompts Typhoon Warning for Northern Marianas

Tropical Storm Fengshen prompted the National Weather Service Office in Guam to issue a Typhoon Warning for portions of the Northern Marianas on Wednesday night.  At 10:00 a.m. EST on Wednesday the center of Tropical Storm Fengshen was located at latitude 17.2°N and longitude 149.0°E which put it about 265 miles (430 km) east of Alamagan.  Fengshen was moving toward west at 18 m.p.h. (30 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (129 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 991 mb.

A Typhoon Warning was in effect for Alamagan, Pagan and Agrihan.

Tropical Storm Fengshen strengthened slowly on Wednesday, although the thunderstorm activity fluctuated during the day.  More thunderstorms developed near the center of circulation on Wednesday night.  Those thunderstorms were generating some upper level divergence which was pumping mass away to the west of the tropical storm.  The strongest rainbands were in the southern and eastern parts of Fengshen.  Bands in the northern wand western parts of the circulations consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 100 miles (160 km) from the center of circulation.

The circulation around Tropical Storm Fengshen may have pulled drier air into the tropical storm.  The drier air may have mixed into rainbands in the northern and western parts of Fengshen and caused the thunderstorms in those parts of the tropical storm to weaken.  Tropical Storm Fengshen will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next several days.  Fengshen will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  It will move south of an upper level ridge centered south of Japan.  The ridge will produce northeasterly winds which will blow toward the top of the circulation.  Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear.  The wind shear and drier air will slow the rate of intensification.  Tropical Storm Fengshen could strengthen into a typhoon within 24 hours.

The ridge south of Japan will steer Tropical Storm Fengshen toward the west for another 12 to 24 hours.  Fengshen will start to move toward the north when it reaches the western end of the ridge.  On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Fengshen could reach Alamagan, Pagan and Agrihan in about 12 hours.  Fengshen could be a typhoon at that time.

Elsewhere over the Western North Pacific Ocean, Tropical Storm Kalmaegi moved slowly toward northern Luzon.  At 10:00 p.m. EST on Wednesday the center of Tropical Storm Kalmaegi was located at latitude 14.3°N and longitude 127.2°E which put it about 425 miles (685 km) east-southeast of Baler, Philippines.  Kalmaegi was moving toward northwest at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1002 mb.