Typhoon Surigae Stalls East of Luzon

Typhoon Surigae stalled east of Luzon on Monday. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Typhoon Surigae was located at latitude 15.6°N and longitude 126.1°E which put it about 310 miles (500 km) east of Baler, Philippines. Surigae was moving toward the north-northwest at 4 m.p.h. (6 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 130 m.p.h. (210 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 160 m.p.h. (260 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 944 mb.

Typhoon Surigae completed an eyewall replacement cycle on Monday. The inner eyewall weakened to a swirl of low clouds. There was a large circular eye at the center of Surigae. The eye had a diameter of 60 miles (95 km). The large eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Surigae. Storms near the core generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the typhoon.

The eyewall replacement cycle left Typhoon Surigae with a symmetrical circulation. Winds to typhoon force extended out 65 miles (105 km) from the center of Surigae. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 180 miles (290 km) from the center. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Typhoon Surigae was 25.1. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 23.9 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 49.0.

Typhoon Surigae will move through an environment capable of supporting a strong typhoon during the next 24 hours. Surigae will be over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures will be near 29°C. It will move under the western part of an upper level ridge over the Western North Pacific Ocean. The upper level winds are weak near the end of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. Typhoon Surigae will be moving slowly and it could mix cooler water to the surface. The cooler water could cause Surigae to weaken gradually.

Typhoon Surigae will move around the western end of a subtropical high pressure system over the Western North Pacific Ocean during the next 36 hours. The high will steer Surigae toward the north-northwest during the next 36 hours. After that time Typhoon Surigae will approach the westerly winds in the middle latitudes. Those winds will turn Surigae toward the east. On its anticipated track, the core Typhoon Surigae with the strongest winds will remain east of Luzon.