Tag Archives: Luzon

Typhoon Dolphin Continues Toward Okinawa

Typhoon Dolphin continued to move toward Okinawa on Wednesday.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Typhoon Dolphin was located at latitude 26.3°N and longitude 132.9°E which put the center about 355 miles (570 km) east of Okinawa.  Dolphin was moving toward the west at 15 m.p.h. (24 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 115 m.p.h. (185 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 956 mb.

Typhoon Dolphin weakened slowly on Wednesday.  The circulation around Dolphin pulled some drier air close to the core of the typhoon.  The drier air caused thunderstorms in some parts of Typhoon Dolphin to weaken.

There was still a small circular eye at the center of Typhoon Dolphin.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.   Bands of showers and thunderstorms still were revolving around the core of Dolphin’s circulation.  There were wider areas of clear air in between the rainbands.  Storms near the core of Dolphin generated less upper level divergence that pumped less mass away from the typhoon. The removal of mass in the upper levels was less than the convergence of mass in the lower levels of the atmosphere.  So, the surface pressure increased on Wednesday.

The circulation around Typhoon Dolpin was still large on Wednesday.  Winds to typhoon force extended out 140 miles (220 km) from the center of Dolphin’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 305 miles (490 km) from the center of Typhoon Dolphin.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Typhoon Dolphin is 13.9.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 44.7 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 58.6. Typhoon Dolphin is similar in intensity to Hurricane Sandy was when Sandy hit the East Coast of the U.S. in 2012.  Typhoon Dolphin is not quite as big as Sandy was.

Typhoon Dolphin will move through an environment that will be favorable for a strong typhoon during the next 24 hours.  Dolphin will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C.  It will move under the middle of an upper level ridge that is over the Western North Pacific Ocean.  The upper level winds are weak near the middle of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  However, the drier air being pulled into Dolphin’s circulation will inhibit intensification.  Typhoon Dolphin is likely to maintain its intensity on Thursday.

Typhoon Dolphin will move around the southern side of a high pressure system that is over the Western North Pacific Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Dolphin toward the west during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, the center of Typhoon Dolphin will be near Minami Daito Jima in 12 hours. The center of Typhoon Dolpin will approach Okinawa in 24 hours,

Typhoon Dolphin will bring strong winds and heavy rain to Minami Daito Jima and to the central Ryukyu Islands including Okinawa later this week.  Heavy rains are likely to cause flash floods in some locations.  Typhoon Dolphin could also cause a storm surge of up to 10 feet (3 meters) along the coast of some of the islands.

Elsewhere over the Western North Pacific Ocean, Tropical Storm Kujira dropped heavy rain on parts of Luzon.  Kujira weakened to a tropical depression after the center moved over Luzon.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Depression Kujira was located at latitude 17.3°N and longitude 121.6°E which put the center about 25 miles (40 km) northwest of Cauayan, Philippines.  Kujira was moving toward the east-southeast at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 997 mb.

 

Typhoon Dolphin Moves Toward Okinawa

Typhoon Dolphin moved toward Okinawa on Tuesday.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Typhoon Dolphin was located at latitude 25.5°N and longitude 137.7°E which put the center about 655 miles (1055 km) east of Okinawa.  Dolphin was moving toward the west at 11 m.p.h. (17 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 115 m.p.h. (185 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 145 m.p.h. (235 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 943 mb.

The intensity of Typhoon Dolphin fluctuated a little on Tuesday, but Dolphin ended the day as strong as it was when the day started.  A circular eye with a diameter of 25 miles (40 km) was at the center of Dolphin’s circulation.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.

Typhoon Dolphin appeared to pull some drier air into its circulation on Tuesday.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms still were revolving around the core of Dolphin’s circulation.  However, there were wider areas of clear air in between the rainbands.  Storms near the core of Dolphin generated strong upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the typhoon.  The removal of mass in the upper levels was nearly equal to the convergence of mass in the lower levels of the atmosphere.  So, the surface pressure did not change much again on Tuesday.

The circulation around Typhoon Dolpin got even larger on Tuesday.  Winds to typhoon force extended out 130 miles (210 km) from the center of Dolphin’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 290 miles (465 km) from the center of Typhoon Dolphin.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Typhoon Dolphin is 20.6.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 40.6 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 61.2.  Typhoon Dolphin is similar in intensity to Hurricane Irma was when Irma hit South Florida in 2017.  Typhoon Dolphin is much larger than Irma was.

Typhoon Dolphin will move through an environment that will be favorable for a powerful typhoon during the next 24 hours.  Dolphin will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move under the middle of an upper level ridge that is over the Western North Pacific Ocean.  The upper level winds are weak near the middle of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Typhoon Dolphin is likely to maintain its intensity on Wednesday unless another eyewall replacement cycle occurs.

Typhoon Dolphin will move around the southern side of a high pressure system that is over the Western North Pacific Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Dolphin toward the west during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, the center of Typhoon Dolphin will be near Minami Daito Jima in less than 36 hours.  The center of Typhoon Dolpin will be near Okinawa in 48 hours,

Typhoon Dolphin will bring strong winds and heavy rain to Minami Daito Jima and to the central Ryukyu Islands including Okinawa later this week.  Heavy rains are likely to cause flash floods in some locations.  Typhoon Dolphin could also cause a storm surge of up to 10 feet (3 meters) along the coast of some of the islands.

Elsewhere over the Western North Pacific Ocean, Tropical Storm Kujira formed west of Luzon.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Storm Kujira was located at latitude 17.6°N and longitude 119.0°E which put the center about 260 miles (420 km) northwest of Manila, Philippines.  Kujira was moving toward the west-northwest at 3 m.p.h. (5 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 999 mb.

Typhoon Mekkhala Strengthens to Equivalent of Cat. 4 Hurricane

Typhoon Mekkhala strengthened to the equivalent of a Category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale on Monday as it moved over the Western North Pacific Ocean east of northern Luzon.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Monday the center of Typhoon Mekkhala was located at latitude 18.3°N and longitude 125.9°E which put the center about 305 miles (490 km) east of Aparri, Philippines.  Mekkhala was moving toward the west-northwest at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 145 m.p.h. (235 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 175 m.p.h. (280 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 937 mb.

Typhoon Mekkhala strengthened to the equivalent of a Category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale on Monday.  A circular eye with a diameter of 25 miles (40 km) was present at the center of Typhoon Mekkhala.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Mekkhala’s circulation.  Storms near the center of Mekkhala generated strong upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the typhoon.  The removal of large amounts of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The distribution of winds speeds in Typhoon Mekkhala was fairly symmetrical.  Winds to typhoon force extended out 25 miles (40 km) from the center of Mekkhala’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 140 miles (225 km) from the center of Typhoon Mekkhala.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Typhoon Mekkhala is 29.9. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 10.0 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 39.9.  Typhoon Mekkhala is similar in intensity to Hurricane Charley when Charley hit Southwest Florida in 2004.  Mekkhala is a little larger than Charley was.

Typhoon Mekkhala will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Mekkhala will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move under the middle of an upper level ridge that is southwest of Japan. The upper level winds are weak in the middle of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Typhoon Mekhala could intensify during the next 24 hours unless the inner end of a rainband wraps around the existing eye and eyewall.  If concentric eyewalls form, then an eyewall replacement cycle would cause Mekkhala to weaken.  Typhoon Mekkhala could strengthen to the equivalent of a Category 5 hurricane, if there is no eyewall replacement cycle.

Typhoon Mekkhala will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system over the Western North Pacific Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Mekkhala toward the northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Typhoon Mekkhala will move toward the southern Ryukyu Islands.  Mekkhala could approach the southern Ryukyu Islands in 60 hours.

Typhoon Mekkhala Rapidly Intensifies to Equivalent of Major Hurricane

Typhoon Mekkhala rapidly intensified to the equivalent of a major hurricane on Sunday.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Typhoon Mekkhala was located at latitude 17.7°N and longitude 127.4°E which put the center about 415 miles (670 km) east-southeast of Aparri, Philippines.  Mekkhala was moving toward the west at 13 m.p.h. (21 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 115 m.p.h. (185 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 145 m.p.h. (230 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 961 mb.

Typhoon Mekkhala rapidly intensified to the equivalent of a major hurricane.  The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the center of Mekkhala’s circulation.  A circular eye with a diameter of 25 miles (40 km) formed at the center of Typhoon Mekkhala.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Mekkhala’s circulation.  Storms near the center of Mekkhala generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the typhoon.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The distribution of winds speeds in Typhoon Mekkhala became more symmetrical on Sunday.  Winds to typhoon force extended out 25 miles (40 km) from the center of Mekkhala’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 140 miles (225 km) from the center of Typhoon Mekkhala.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Typhoon Mekkhala is 20.6.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 10.0 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 30.6.  Typhoon Mekkhala is similar in intensity to Hurricane Delta when Delta hit Southwest Louisiana in 2020.  Mekkhala is a little smaller than Delta was.

Typhoon Mekkhala will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Mekkhala will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C.  It will move under the middle of an upper level ridge that is southwest of Japan.  The upper level winds are weak in the middle of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Typhoon Mekhala will intensify during the next 24 hours.  Mekkhala could continue to intensify rapidly during the next few hours.

Typhoon Mekkhala will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system over the Western North Pacific Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Mekkhala toward the west-northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Typhoon Mekkhala will move closer to northern Luzon. Mekkhala is likely to move more slowly in a couple of days when it reaches the western end of the high pressure system.  Typhoon Mekkhala is also likely to move toward the north when it reaches the western end of the high pressure system

Mekkhala Strengthens to a Typhoon

Former Tropical Storm Mekkhala strengthened to a typhoon over the Western North Pacific Ocean east of Luzon on Saturday night.  At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Typhoon Mekkhala was located at latitude 16.4°N and longitude 131.3°E which put the center about 710 miles (1145 km) east-southeast of Aparri, Philippines.  Mekkhala was moving toward the northwest at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 988 mb.

Former Tropical Storm Mekkhala strengthened to a typhoon on Saturday night.  The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the southern side of Mekkhala’s circulation.  Other bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Typhoon Mekkhala.  Storms near the center of Mekkhala generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the typhoon.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The strongest winds were occurring in the northern side of Typhoon Mekkhala.  Winds to typhoon force extended out 25 miles (40 km) in the northern half of Mekkhala’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 105 miles (165 km) in the northern side of Typhoon Mekkhala.  Winds to tropical storm force only extended out 40 miles (65 km) in the southern half of Mekkhala’s circulation.

Typhoon Mekkhala will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Mekkhala will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C.  It will move under the southern part of an upper level ridge that is southwest of Japan. The upper level ridge will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of Mekkhala’s circulation.  Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear.  The vertical wind shear will inhibit intensification, but the wind shear will not be enough to prevent intensification.  Typhoon Mekhala will intensify during the next 24 hours.  Mekkhala could strengthen to the equivalent of a major hurricane during the next few days.

Typhoon Mekkhala will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system over the Western North Pacific Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Mekkhala toward the west-northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Typhoon Mekkhala will move toward northern Luzon.  Mekkhala is likely to move more slowly in a couple of days when it reaches the western end of the high pressure system.

Nokaen Weakens to a Tropical Depression

Former Tropical Storm Nokaen weakened to a tropical depression over the Western North Pacific Ocean east of Luzon on Monday morning.  At 10:00 a.m. EST on Monday the center of the Tropical Depression Nokaen was located at latitude 17.1°N and longitude 127.4°E which put the center about 365 miles (530 km) east-southeast of Aparri, Philippines.  Nokaen was moving toward the northeast at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1000 mb.

Former Tropical Storm Nokaen continued to move through an environment containing drier air on Monday.  The drier air caused most of the thunderstorms in Tropical Depression Nokaen to dissipate.  A few thunderstorms were still occurring in a band in the far northern periphery of Nokaen’s circulation.  The bands in the other parts of Tropical Depression Nokaen consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.

Tropical Depression Nokaen will move through an environment that will be unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Nokaen will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C.  However, it will continue to be surrounded by drier air.  In addition, Tropical Depression Nokaen will move under the southern portion of the midlatitude upper level westerly winds.  Those winds will cause vertical wind shear.  The drier air and the vertical wind shear will cause the circulation around Tropical Depression Nokaen to continue to weaken.

Tropical Depression Nokaen will move around the western end of a high pressure system that is over the Western North Pacific Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Nokaen toward the east-northeast during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Depression Nokaen will continue to move farther away from Luzon as it gradually spins down.

Tropical Storm Nokaen Weakens East of the Philippines

Tropical Storm Nokaen weakened east of the Philippines on Sunday morning.  At 10:00 a.m. EST on Sunday the center of the Tropical Storm Nokaen was located at latitude 15.5°N and longitude 125.9°E which put the center about 310 miles (500 km) east-southeast of Casiguran, Philippines.  Nokaen was moving toward the north-northeast at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 998 mb.

A combination of drier air and vertical wind shear caused Tropical Storm Nokaen to weaken east of the Philippines on Sunday morning.  A large high pressure system over eastern Asia was transporting drier air into the environment around Tropical Storm Nokaen.  The drier air caused many of the thunderstorms in Nokaen’s circulation to dissipate.  An upper level ridge over the Western North Pacific Ocean was producing southerly winds that blew the tops off of many of the thunderstorms remaining in Tropical Storm Nokaen.

Most of the bands in Tropical Storm Nokaen consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds on Sunday morning.  A few new thunderstorms formed northeast of the center of Nokaen’s circulation.  The dissipation of many of the thunderstorms in Nokaen reduced the upper level divergence.   Without thunderstorms to pump mass away from Nokaen, convergence in the lower levels of the atmosphere caused the surface pressure to increase.

The distribution of wind speeds in Tropical Storm Nokaen remained asymmetrical.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 115 miles (185 km) in the northern half of Nokaen’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out only 25 miles (40 km) in the southern half of Tropical Storm Nokaen.

Tropical Storm Nokaen will move through an environment that will be unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Nokaen will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C.  However, the western end of the upper level ridge over the Western North Pacific Ocean will continue to produce southerly winds that will blow toward the top of Nokaen’s circulation.  Those winds will cause strong vertical wind shear.  In addition drier air will continue to surround Tropical Storm Nokaen.  Tropical Storm Nokaen is likely to continue to weaken slowly during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Storm Nokaen will move around the western end of a high pressure system that is over the Western North Pacific Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Nokaen toward the northeast during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, the center of Tropical Storm Nokaen will move farther away from Luzon.

Tropical Storm Nokaen Passes East of Luzon

Tropical Storm Nokaen was passing just to the east of Luzon on Saturday morning.  At 10:00 a.m. EST on Saturday the center of the Tropical Storm Nokaen was located at latitude 15.2°N and longitude 124.1°E which put the center about 185 miles (300 km) east-southeast of Casiguran, Philippines.  Nokaen was moving toward the northwest at 13 m.p.h. (21 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 993 mb.

Tropical Storm Nokaen strengthened a little more as it moved east of Luzon on Saturday morning.  Even though Nokaen was stronger, the distribution of thunderstorms remained asymmetrical.  Thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the western and northern parts of Tropical Storm Nokaen.  Bands in the eastern and southern parts of Nokaen’s circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Storms near the center of Nokaen generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical storm.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The circulation around Tropical Storm Nokaen was interacting with a high pressure system over eastern Asia.  The interaction was causing a large area of strong winds in the northwestern quadrant of Nokaen’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 150 miles (240 km) in the northwestern quadrant of Tropical Storm Nokaen.  Winds to tropical storm force only extended out 60 miles (95 km) in the other quadrants of Nokaen’s circulation.

Tropical Storm Nokaen will move through an environment that will become unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Nokaen will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C.  It will move under the western end of an upper level ridge that is over the Western North Pacific Ocean.  The upper level ridge will produce southeasterly winds that will blow toward the top of Nokaen’s circulation.  Those winds will cause the vertical wind shear to increase.  Tropical Storm Nokaen will start to weaken when the vertical wind shear increases.

Tropical Storm Nokaen will move around the western end of a high pressure system that is over the Western North Pacific Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Nokaen toward the north during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, the center of Tropical Storm Nokaen will remain east of Luzon.

Bands in the western side of Tropical Storm Nokaen will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to parts of Luzon.  Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Tropical Cyclone Nokaen Nears the Philippines

Tropical Storm Nokaen moved nearer to the Philippines on Friday morning.  At 10:00 a.m. EST on Friday the center of the Tropical Storm Nokaen was located at latitude 12.4°N and longitude 126.7°E which put the center about 115 miles (185 km) east of Laoang, Philippines.  Nokaen was moving toward the west-northwest at 11 m.p.h. (17 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 997 mb.

Tropical Storm Nokaen strengthened on Friday morning as it moved closer to the Philippines.  More thunderstorms formed near the center of Nokaen’s circulation.  More thunderstorms also developed in bands in the western side of Tropical Storm Nokaen.  Bands in the eastern side of Nokaen’s circulation still consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Storms near the center of Nokaen generated more upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical storm.  The removal of more mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The strongest winds were occurring in the northwestern part of Tropical Storm Nokaen.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 150 miles (240 km) in the northwestern quadrant of Nokaen’s circulation.  The winds in the other parts of Tropical Storm Nokaen were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Storm Nokaen will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Nokaen will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move under the western end of an upper level ridge that is over the Western North Pacific Ocean.  The upper level ridge will produce southeasterly winds that will blow toward the top of Nokaen’s circulation.  Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear.  The moderate vertical wind shear will inhibit intensification, but the wind shear may not be enough to prevent intensification.  Tropical Storm Nokaen could continue to intensify during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Storm Nokaen will move around the western end of a high pressure system that is over the Western North Pacific Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Nokaen toward the northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, the center of Tropical Storm Nokaen will be near Samar on in 24 hours.

Bands in the western side of Nokaen’s circulation are already bringing gusty winds and locally heavy rain to Samar, Catanduanes Island, and southeastern Luzon.  Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations.

Tropical Storm Nokaen Develops East of the Philippines

Tropical Storm Nokaen developed over the Western North Pacific Ocean east of the Philippines on Thursday morning.  At 10:00 a.m. EST on Thursday the center of the Tropical Storm Nokaen was located at latitude 10.2°N and longitude 128.8°E which put the center about 220 miles (335 km) east of Dinagat, Philippines.  Nokaen was moving toward the northwest at 2 m.p.h. (3 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 998 mb.

A low pressure system over the Western North Pacific Ocean east of the Philippines strengthened on Thursday morning and the Japan Meteorological Agency designated the system as Tropical Storm Nokaen.

Thunderstorms were occurring near the center of Tropical Storm Nokaen.  Thunderstorms were also occurring in bands in the western and northern parts of Nokaen’s circulation.  Bands in the eastern and southern parts of Tropical Storm Nokaen consisted primarily of showers and thunderstorms.  Storms near the center of Nokaen generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical storm.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The distribution of winds speeds in Tropical Storm Nokaen was asymmetrical.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 150 miles (240 km) in the northern half of Nokaen’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 45 miles (75 km) in the southern half of Tropical Storm Nokaen.

Tropical Storm Nokaen will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Nokaen will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move under the western end of an upper level ridge that is over the Western North Pacific Ocean.  The upper level ridge will produce southeasterly winds that will blow toward the top of Nokaen’s circulation.  Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear.  The moderate vertical wind shear will inhibit intensification, but the wind shear may not be enough to prevent intensification.  Tropical Storm Nokaen could intensify slowly during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Storm Nokaen will move around the western end of a high pressure system that is over the Western North Pacific Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Nokaen toward the northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Nokaen will move closer to the central Philippines.

Bands in the western side of Nokaen’s circulation will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to Samar, Cataduanes Island, and southeastern Luzon.  Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.