Typhoon Ragasa intensified to the equivalent of a Category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale on Saturday night east of northern Luzon. At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Typhoon Ragasa was located at latitude 18.5°N and longitude 125.8°E which put the center about 280 miles (455 km) east of Aparri, Philippines. Ragasa was moving toward the west-northwest at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 160 m.p.h. (260 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 195 m.p.h. (315 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 922 mb.
Typhoon Ragasa intensified to the equivalent of a Category 5 hurricane on Saturday night. A small circular eye was at the center of Ragasa’s circulation. The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Typhoon Ragasa. Storms near the center of Ragasa generated strong upper level divergence that pumped mass away in all directions from the typhoon. The removal of large quantities of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease rapidly.
The circulation around Typhoon Ragasa was large. Winds to typhoon force extended out 60 miles (95 km) from the center of Ragasa’s circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 215 miles (345 km) from the center of Typhoon Ragasa.
The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Typhoon Ragasa was 35.0. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 20.6 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 55.6. Typhoon Ragasa was similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Maria when Maria hit Puerto Rico in 2017.
Typhoon Ragasa will move through an environment very favorable for a powerful typhoon during the next 24 hours. Ragasa will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C. It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. Typhoon Ragasa could continue to intensify during the next 24 hours unless an eyewall replacement cycle occurs.
Typhoon Ragasa will move around the southern side of a high pressure system over the Western North Pacific Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Ragasa toward the west-northwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, the center of Typhoon Ragasa will be north of Luzon in 24 hours.
Typhoon Ragasa will bring very strong winds and heavy rain to the Batanes Islands and to the Babuyan Islands. Ragasa could cause a storm surge of up to 16 feet (5 meters). Typhoon Ragasa could cause catastrophic damage on those islands. Typhoon Ragasa will also cause strong winds and heavy rain in northern Luzon. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.
Elsewhere over the Western North Pacific Ocean, powerful Typhoon Neoguri continued to spin far to the southeast of Japan. At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Typhoon Neoguri was located at latitude 28.0°N and longitude 151.6°E which put the center about 880 miles (1420 km) east-southeast of Tokyo, Japan. Neoguri was moving toward the northwest at 11 m.p.h. (17 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 145 m.p.h. (235 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 175 m.p.h. (280 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 936 mb.
