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Typhoon Dujuan Passes Southeast of Honshu

Typhoon Dujuan passed southeast of Honshu on Monday morning.  At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Monday the center of Typhoon Dujuan was located at latitude 34.3°N and longitude 140.8°E which put the center about 110 miles (175 km) south of Tokyo, Japan.  Dujuan was moving toward the northeast at 18 m.p.h. (30 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 971 mb.

Typhoon Dujuan strengthened a little more on Monday morning as it passed southeast of Honshu.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Dujuan’s circulation.  Storms near the center of Dujuan generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the northeast of the typhoon.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The strongest winds were occurring in the eastern side of Typhoon Dujuan.  Winds to typhoon force extended out 35 miles (55 km) in the eastern side of Dujuan’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 210 miles (335 km) from the center of Typhoon Dujuan.

Typhoon Dujuan will move through an environment that will be somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 12 hours.   Dujuan will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 27°C.  It will move under the eastern part of an upper level trough that is north of Japan.  The upper level trough will produce southwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Dujuan’s circulation.  Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear. The moderate vertical wind shear will inhibit intensification, but the wind shear may not be enough to prevent intensification.  Typhoon Dujuan could intensify a little more during the next 12 hours.  Dujuan will move over cooler Sea Surface Temperatures later on Monday.  Typhoon Dujuan will also into a region where the upper level winds are stronger on Tuesday.  The cooler Sea Surface Temperatures and stronger upper level winds will cause Typhoon Dujuan to weaken.  The cooler water and stronger upper level winds will also cause Dujuan to make a transition to an extratropical cyclone.

The upper level trough that is north of Japan will steer Typhoon Dujuan toward the northeast during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Typhoon Dujuan will move away from Honshu.

Typhoon Dujuan South of Honshu

The center of Typhoon Dujuan was south of Honshu on Sunday evening.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Typhoon Dujuan was located at latitude 33.0°N and longitude 139.5°E which put the center about 210 miles (335 km) south-southwest of Tokyo, Japan.  Dujuan was moving toward the northeast at 15 m.p.h. (24 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 974 mb.

Former Tropical Storm Dujuan strengthened back to a typhoon as it moved south of Honshu on Sunday evening.  The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the center of Typhoon Dujuan.  Other bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Dujuan’s circulation.  Storms near the center of Dujuan generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the northeast of the typhoon.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The strongest winds were occurring in the eastern side of Typhoon Dujuan.  Winds to typhoon force extended out 30 miles (50 km) in the eastern side of Dujuan’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 195 miles (315 km) from the center of Typhoon Dujuan.

Typhoon Dujuan will move through an environment that will be somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Dujuan will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C.  It will move under the southern part of an upper level trough that is north of Japan.  The upper level trough will produce southwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Dujuan’s circulation.  Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear.  The moderate vertical wind shear will inhibit intensification, but the wind shear may not be enough to prevent intensification.  Typhoon Dujuan could intensify on Monday.  Dujuan will move into a region where the upper level winds are stronger on Tuesday.  The stronger upper level winds will cause Typhoon Dujuan to start to weaken.  The stronger upper level winds will also cause Dujuan to make a transition to an extratropical cyclone.

The upper level trough that is north of Japan will steer Tropical Storm Dujuan toward the northeast during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, the center of Tropical Storm Dujuan will pass just south of Tokyo in a few hours.

Tropical Storm Dujuan will bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to Tokyo and eastern Honshu.  Heavy rain could cause floods in some locations.

Tropical Storm Dujuan Moves Toward Honshu

Tropical Storm Dujuan moved toward Honshu on Saturday.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Storm Dujuan was located at latitude 29.1°N and longitude 137.5°E which put the center about 475 miles (760 km) south-southwest of Tokyo, Japan.  Dujuan was moving toward the northwest at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 70 m.p.h. (110 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 978 mb.

Former Typhoon Dujuan weakened slightly on Saturday.  The circulation around Dujuan pulled some drier air into the eastern side of the tropical storm.  Some of the thunderstorms in bands in the eastern side of Tropical Storm Dujuan weakened.  Thunderstorms were still occurring in bands in the other parts of Dujuan’s circulation.  Storms near the center of Dujuan generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the northeast of the tropical storm.  The removal of mass in the upper levels was nearly equal to the convergence of mass in the lower levels of the atmosphere.  So, the surface pressure did not change much on Saturday.

The circulation around Tropical Storm Dujuan was large.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 230 miles (370 km) from the center of Dujuan’s circulation.

Tropical Storm Dujuan will move through an environment that will be somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Dujuan will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C.  It will move under the southern part of an upper level trough that is north of Japan.  The upper level trough will produce southwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Dujuan’s circulation.  Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear. The moderate vertical wind shear will inhibit intensification, but the wind shear may not be enough to prevent intensification.  Tropical Storm Dujuan could intensify a little on Sunday.

The upper level trough that is north of Japan will steer Tropical Storm Dujuan toward the north-northeast during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, the center of Tropical Storm Dujuan will pass just south of Tokyo in a little over 24 hours.

Tropical Storm Dujuan will bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to Tokyo and eastern Honshu.  Heavy rain could cause floods in some locations.

Dujuan Strengthens to a Typhoon

Former Tropical Storm Dujuan strengthened to a typhoon on Friday as it moved over the Western North Pacific Ocean northwest of Iwo To.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Typhoon Dujuan was located at latitude 26.5°N and longitude 139.4°E which put the center about 140 miles (225 km) northwest of Iwo To.  Dujuan was moving toward the west-northwest at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 978 mb.

Former Tropical Storm Dujuan strengthened to a typhoon on Friday.  The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the southern and eastern side of the center of Typhoon Dujuan.  Thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the northern side of Dujuan’s circulation.  Bands in the southern side of Typhoon Dujuan consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Storms near the center of Dujuan generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the typhoon.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The strongest winds were occurring close to the center of Typhoon Dujuan.  Winds to typhoon force extended out 20 miles (30 km) from the center of Dujuan’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 250 miles (400 km) in the northern side of Typhoon Dujuan.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 140 miles (225 km) in the southern half of Dujuan’s circulation.

Typhoon Dujuan will move through an environment that will be somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Dujuan will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C.  It will move under the western part of an upper level ridge that is southeast of Japan.  The upper level ridge will produce southerly winds that will blow toward the top of Dujuan’s circulation.  Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear.  The moderate vertical wind shear will inhibit intensification, but the wind shear may not be enough to prevent intensification.  Typhoon Dujuan could intensify a little more during the next 24 hours.

Typhoon Dujuan will move around the western part of a high pressure system that is over the Western North Pacific Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Dujuan toward the northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Typhoon Dujuan will move closer to Honshu during the weekend.

Tropical Storm Dujuan Moves East of Iwo To

Tropical Storm Dujuan moved east of Iwo To on Thursday.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Storm Dujuan was located at latitude 25.3°N and longitude 143.8°E which put the center about 200 miles (325 km) east of Iwo To.  Dujuan was moving toward the west at 17 m.p.h. (28 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 70 m.p.h. (110 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 981 mb.

Tropical Storm Dujuan strengthened on Thursday as it moved over the Western North Pacific Ocean east of Iwo To.  More thunderstorms developed near the center of Dujuan’s circulation.  Thunderstorms were also occurring in bands in the northern side of Tropical Storm Dujuan.  Bands in the southern half of Dujuan’s circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Storms near the center of Dujuan generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical storm.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The circulation around Tropical Storm Dujuan was large.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 290 miles (465 km) from the center of Dujuan’s circulation.

Tropical Storm Dujuan will move through an environment that will be somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Dujuan will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C.  It will move under the northern part of an upper level low that is south of Iwo To.  The upper level low will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of Dujuan’s circulation.  Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear.  The moderate vertical wind shear will inhibit intensification, but the wind shear may not be enough to prevent intensification.  Tropical Storm Dujuan could intensify to a typhoon during the next 24 hours.

The upper level low that is south of Iwo To will pull Tropical Storm Dujuan toward the west during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, the center of Tropical Storm Dujuan will pass north of Iwo To on Friday.

Tropical Storm Dujuan will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to Iwo To on Friday.

Tropical Storm Dujuan Forms Northeast of Marianas

Tropical Storm Dujuan formed over the Western North Pacific Ocean northeast of the Marianas on Wednesday.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Storm Dujuan was located at latitude 17.3°N and longitude 149.5°E which put the center about 260 miles (420 km) east-northeast of Saipan.  Dujuan was moving toward the north-northeast at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 994 mb.

A low pressure system over the Western North Pacific Ocean northeast of the Marianas strengthened on Wednesday and the Japan Meteorological Agency designated the system as Tropical Storm Dujuan.

The distribution of thunderstorms in Tropical Storm Dujuan was asymmetrical.  Thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the southern and eastern parts of Dujuan’s circulation.  Bands in the northern and western parts of Tropical Storm Dujian consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Storms near the center of Dujuan generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the northeast of the tropical storm.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The strongest winds were occurring in the southern part of Tropical Storm Dujuan.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 150 miles (240 km) in the southern side of Dujuan’s circulation.  The winds in the northern half of Tropical Storm Dujuan were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Storm Dujuan will move through an environment that will be somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Dujuan will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C.  It will move under the southeastern part of an upper level low that is north of the Marianas.  The upper level low will produce southwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Dujuan’s circulation.  Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear.  The moderate vertical wind shear will inhibit intensification, but the wind shear may not be enough to prevent intensification.  Tropical Storm Dujuan is likely to intensify gradually during the next 24 hours.

The upper level low that is north of the Marianas will pull Tropical Storm Dujuan toward the north during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Dujuan will move north of the Marianas.  The center of Dujuan could be near Iwo To in 48 hours.

Typhoon Ragasa Makes Landfall in Southern China

Typhoon Ragasa made landfall on the coast of southern China east of Yangjiang on Wednesday morning.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Typhoon Ragasa was located at latitude 21.9°N and longitude 110.5°E which put the center about 30 miles (50 km) northeast of Yangjiang, China.  Ragasa was moving toward the west at 16 m.p.h. (26 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 115 m.p.h. (185 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 96 mb.

The center of Typhoon Ragasa made landfall on the coast of southern China east of Yangjiang on Wednesday morning.  Ragasa was a large and powerful typhoon at the time of landfall.  Winds to typhoon force extended out 60 miles (95 km) from the center of Ragasa’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 190 miles (305 km) from the center of Typhoon Ragasa.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Typhoon Ragasa was 13.9.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 20.8 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 34.7.

Typhoon Ragasa will move around the southern side of a high pressure system over China.  The high pressure system will steer Ragasa toward the west during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, the center of Typhoon Ragasa will move westward near the coast of southern China.  Ragasa will move over northern Vietnam on Thursday.

Typhoon Ragasa will bring strong winds and heavy rain to Guangxi, western Guangdong, and northern Hainan.  Heavy rain is likely to cause floods in some locations.  Typhoon Ragasa could cause a storm surge of up to 10 feet (3 meters) along portions of the coast.  Ragasa could also drop heavy rain on parts of northern Vietnam and northern Laos.

Elsewhere over the Western North Pacific Ocean, Tropical Storm Bualoi was strengthening east of the Philippines and Tropical Storm Neoguri was spinning far to the east of Japan.

At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Storm Bualoi was located at latitude 10.6°N and longitude 130.5°E which put the center about 375 miles (605 km) east-southeast of Tacloban, Philippines.  Bualoi was moving toward the west-northwest at 11 m.p.h. (17 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 994 mb.

At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Storm Neoguri was located at latitude 31.2°N and longitude 156.8°E which put the center about 1060 miles (1710 km) east-southeast of Tokyo, Japan.  Neoguri was moving toward the east-northeast at 16 m.p.h. (26 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 70 m.p.h. (110 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 980 mb.

Typhoon Ragasa Brings Wind and Rain to Hong Kong

Typhoon Ragasa brought wind and rain to Hong Kong on Tuesday night.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Typhoon Ragasa was located at latitude 21.3°N and longitude 113.2°E which put the center about 80 miles (130 km) south-southwest of Hong Kong.  Ragasa was moving toward the west at 11 m.p.h. (17 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 130 m.p.h. (210 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 155 m.p.h. (250 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 944 mb.

The center of Typhoon Ragasa passed south of Hong Kong on Tuesday night.  A weather station at the airport in Hong Kong (VHHH) reported a sustained wind speed of 47 kt (54 m.p.h. or 87 km/h) and a wind gust of 66 kt (76 m.p.h. or 122 km/h).

The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the existing eye and eyewall in Typhoon Ragasa as it was passing south of Hong Kong.  A second outer eyewall appeared to be developing.  The formation of concentric eyewalls could start another eyewall replacement cycle.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Typhoon Ragasa.  Storms near the core generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the typhoon.

The circulation around Typhoon Ragasa was large.  Winds to typhoon force extended out 60 miles (95 km) from the center of Ragasa’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 190 miles (305 km) from the center of Typhoon Ragasa.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Typhoon Ragasa is 25.1.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 20.8 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 45.9.  Typhoon Ragasa is similar in intensity to Hurricane Harvey when Harvey hit Texas in 2017.  Ragasa is larger than Harvey was.

Typhoon Ragasa will move through an environment that will be favorable for a powerful typhoon during the next few hours.  Ragasa will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C. It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Even though Typhoon Ragasa will move through a favorable environment, another eyewall replacement cycle would cause Ragasa to weaken.

Typhoon Ragasa will move around the southern side of a high pressure system over China.  The high pressure system will steer Ragasa toward the west during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, the center of Typhoon Ragasa will make landfall on the coast of southern China west of Macau in 12 hours.

Typhoon Ragasa will bring strong winds and heavy rain to Guangxi and to western Guangdong.  Heavy rain is likely to cause floods in some locations.  Typhoon Ragasa could cause a storm surge of up to 13 feet (4 meters) along portions of the coast.  Ragasa could also drop heavy rain over northern parts of Vietnam and Laos.

Elsewhere over the Western North Pacific Ocean, Tropical Storm Bualoi formed east of the Philippines and former Typhoon Neoguri weakened to a tropical storm far to the east of Japan.

At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Storm Bualoi was located at latitude 9.5°N and longitude 133.4°E which put the center about 535 miles (865 km) east of Surigao, Philippines.  Bualoi was moving toward the west-southwest at 11 m.p.h. (17 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1002 mb.

At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Storm Neoguri was located at latitude 30.6°N and longitude 154.6°E which put the center about 910 miles (1465 km) east-southeast of Tokyo, Japan.  Neoguri was moving toward the east at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 70 m.p.h. (110 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 978 mb.

Typhoon Ragasa Moves over South China Sea

Typhoon Ragasa moved over the South China Sea on Monday night.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Typhoon Ragasa was located at latitude 20.2°N and longitude 117.7°E which put the center about 300 miles (485 km) east-southeast of Hong Kong.  Ragasa was moving toward the west at 13 m.p.h. (21 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 145 m.p.h. (235 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 175 m.p.h. (280 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 930 mb.

Typhoon Ragasa went through an eyewall replacement cycle, but the eyewall replacement only weakened Ragasa slightly.  A new eye with a diameter of 30 miles (50 km) was at the center of Ragasa’s circulation.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Typhoon Ragasa.  Storms near the center of Ragasa generated strong upper level divergence that pumped mass away in all directions from the typhoon.  The removal of large quantities of mass in the upper levels was slightly less than the inflow of mass in the lower levels of the atmosphere.  The inflow of mass in the lower levels caused the surface pressure to increase slowly.

The circulation around Typhoon Ragasa was large.  Winds to typhoon force extended out 80 miles (130 km) from the center of Ragasa’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 240 miles (390 km) from the center of Typhoon Ragasa.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Typhoon Ragasa was 29.9.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 28.7 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 58.6.  Typhoon Ragasa was larger and stronger than Hurricane Helene was when Helene hit Florida in 2024.

Typhoon Ragasa will move through an environment that will be favorable for a powerful typhoon during the next 24 hours.  Ragasa will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move under the southern part of an upper level ridge over China.  The upper level ridge will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of Ragasa’s circulation.  Those winds will cause the vertical wind shear to increase.  Typhoon Ragasa could weaken slowly during the next 24 hours because of more vertical wind shear.

Typhoon Ragasa will move around the southern side of a high pressure system over China.  The high pressure system will steer Ragasa toward the west-northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, the center of Typhoon Ragasa will be just south of Hong Kong in less than 24 hours.

Typhoon Ragasa will bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to coastal regions in southern China including Hong Kong.  Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations.  Typhoon Ragasa could also cause a storm surge of up to 13 feet (4 meters) along parts of the coast.

Elsewhere over the Western North Pacific Ocean, Typhoon Neoguri moved farther east of Japan.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Typhoon Neoguri was located at latitude 30.6°N and longitude 153.3°E which put the center about 910 miles (1470 km) east of Tokyo, Japan.  Neoguri was moving toward the east-northeast at 11 m.p.h. (17 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 120 m.p.h. (195 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 963 mb.

Typhoon Ragasa Hammers Babuyan Islands

Typhoon Ragasa hammered the Babuyan Islands just north of Luzon on Sunday night.  At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Mounday the center of Typhoon Ragasa was located at latitude 19.4°N and longitude 121.1°E which put the center about 50 miles (80 km) north of Claveria, Philippines.  Ragasa was moving toward the west at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 160 m.p.h. (260 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 195 m.p.h. (315 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 916 mb.

Typhoon Ragasa was the equivalent of a Category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale when it hit the Babuyan Islands just north of Luzon on Sunday night.  The eye at the center of Ragasa’s circulation passed over Babuyan Island.  Typhoon Ragasa brought potentially catastrophic winds and heavy rain to the island.  Ragasa could also have caused a storm surge of up to 16 feet (5 meters) along the coast of the island.

Typhoon Ragasa was still the equivalent of a Category 5 hurricane on Monday morning.  A circular eye with a diameter of 35 miles (55 km) was at the center of Ragasa’s circulation.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Typhoon Ragasa.  Storms near the center of Ragasa generated strong upper level divergence that pumped mass away in all directions from the typhoon.  The removal of large quantities of mass in the upper levels was nearly equal to the inflow of mass in the lower levels of the atmosphere.  The balance of inflow and outflow of mass caused the surface pressure to remain nearly constant.

The circulation around Typhoon Ragasa was large.  Winds to typhoon force extended out 80 miles (130 km) from the center of Ragasa’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 250 miles (400km) from the center of Typhoon Ragasa.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Typhoon Ragasa was 35.0.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 28.4 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 63.4.  Typhoon Ragasa was similar in intensity to Hurricane Maria when Maria hit Puerto Rico in 2017.  Ragasa was bigger than Maria was.

Typhoon Ragasa will move through an environment very favorable for a powerful typhoon during the next 24 hours.  Ragasa will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Typhoon Ragasa could maintain its intensity during the next 24 hours unless an eyewall replacement cycle occurs.

Typhoon Ragasa will move around the southern side of a high pressure system over the Western North Pacific Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Ragasa toward the west during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, the center of Typhoon Ragasa will be south of Hong Kong in 48 hours.

Typhoon Ragasa will continue to produce very strong winds and heavy rain in the Batanes Islands and to the Babuyan Island until it moves farther to the west of those islands.   Typhoon Ragasa is likely to cause catastrophic damage on those islands.  Typhoon Ragasa will also continue to cause strong winds and heavy rain in northern Luzon.  Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Elsewhere over the Western North Pacific Ocean, Typhoon Neoguri weakened slightly far to the east of Japan.  At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Monday the center of Typhoon Neoguri was located at latitude 30.3°N and longitude 152.0°E which put the center about 825 miles (1330 km) east of Tokyo, Japan.  Neoguri was moving toward the northeast at 11 m.p.h. (17 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 120 m.p.h. (195 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 150 m.p.h. (240 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 950 mb.