Monthly Archives: January 2026

Tropical Cyclone Fytia Brings Wind and Rain to Madagascar

Tropical Cyclone Fytia was bringing wind and rain to Madagascar on Saturday.  At 10:00 a.m. EST on Saturday the center of Tropical Cyclone Fytia was located at latitude 17.5°S and longitude 47.0°E which put the center about 140 miles (225 km) north-northwest of Antananarivo, Madagascar.  Fytia was moving toward the southeast at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 70 m.p.h. (110 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 989 mb.

The center of Tropical Cyclone Fytia made landfall on the west coast of Madagascar west of Soalala on Friday night.  Fytia was the equivalent of a major hurricane at the time of landfall.  It then started to weaken as it moved southeast across central Madagascar.

Tropical Cyclone Fytia was the equivalent of a tropical storm on Saturday morning.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 115 miles (185 km) from the center of Fytia’s circulation.

An upper level trough over the Mozambique Channel will steer Tropical Cyclone Fytia toward the southeast during the next 24 hours.  The center of Fytia’s circulation will pass between Antananarivo and Toamasina.  Tropical Cyclone Fytia will move over the Southwest Indian Ocean on Sunday.

Tropical Cyclone Fytia will bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to central Madagascar.   Heavy rain is very likely to cause flash floods in some locations. Widespread electricity outages are also likely.

Tropical Cyclone Fytia Rapidly Intensifies to Equivalent of a Major Hurricane

Tropical Cyclone Fytia rapidly intensified to the equivalent of a major hurricane before it hit the west coast of Madagascar on Friday night.  At 10:00 p.m. EST on Friday the center of Tropical Cyclone Fytia was located at latitude 16.3°S and longitude 45.2°E which put the center about 25 miles (40 km) west of Soalala, Madagascar.  Fytia was moving toward the east-southeast at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 115 m.p.h. (185 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 145 m.p.h. (235 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 962 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Fytia continued to intensify rapidly on Friday right up to the time it hit the west coast of Madagascar.  A small circular eye was at the center of Tropical Cyclone Fytia.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Fytia’s circulation.  Storms near the core of Fytia generated strong upper level divergence that pumped large quantities of mass away from the tropical cyclone.  The removal of large amounts of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease rapidly.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Fytia was small.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 25 miles (40 km) from the center of Fytia’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 90 miles (145 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Fytia.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Fytia was 20.6. The Hurricane Size Index (HWISI) was 9.4 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 30.0 Tropical Cyclone Fytia was similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Zeta when Zeta hit Louisiana in 2020.

Tropical Cyclone Fytia will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system that is over the South Indian Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Fytia toward the southeast during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Fytia will across central Madagascar on Saturday.

The center of Tropical Cyclone Fytia made landfall on the west coast of Madagascar west of Soalala.  The center of Fytia’s circulation is likely to pass between Antananarivo and Toamasina on Saturday night.  Tropical Cyclone Fytia will weaken as it moves across Madagascar.

Tropical Cyclone Fytia will bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to the coast of west central Madagascar and to central Madagascar.  Fytia could cause major damage in those areas.   Heavy rain is very likely to cause flash floods in some locations. Tropical Cyclone Fytia could also cause a storm surge of up to 10 feet (3 meters) along parts of the west coast of Madagascar.

Tropical Cyclone Fytia Rapidly Intensifies to Equivalent of Hurricane/Typhoon

Tropical Cyclone Fytia rapidly intensified to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon over the Mozambique Channel early on Friday.  At 10:00 a.m. EST on Friday the center of Tropical Cyclone Fytia was located at latitude 15.5°S and longitude 43.0°E which put the center about 240 miles (385 km) west of Mahajanga, Madagascar.  Fytia was moving toward the east at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 115 m.p.h. (185 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 973 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Fytia rapidly intensified to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon early on Friday.  The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the center of Fytia’s circulation.  A small circular eye formed at the center of Tropical Cyclone Fytia.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Fytia’s circulation.  Storms near the core of Fytia generated strong upper level divergence that pumped large quantities of mass away from the tropical cyclone.  The removal of large amounts of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease rapidly.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Fytia was small.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 25 miles (40 km) from the center of Fytia’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 90 miles (145 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Fytia.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Fytia was 13.9.  The Hurricane Size Index (HWISI) was 9.3 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 23.2  Tropical Cyclone Fytia was similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Hanna when Hanna hit South Texas in 2020.

Tropical Cyclone Fytia will move through an environment very favorable for intensification during the next 12 hours.  Fytia will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move under the middle of an upper level ridge that is over the Mozambique Channel.  The upper level winds are weak in the middle of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Cyclone Fytia will intensify during the next 12 hours.  Fytia could rapidly intensify to the equivalent of a major hurricane.

Tropical Cyclone Fytia will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system that is over the South Indian Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Fytia toward the east-southeast during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Fytia will reach the west coast of Madagascar between Soalala and Besalampy on Friday night.

Tropical Cyclone Fytia will bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to the coast of west central Madagascar and to central Madagascar.  Fytia could cause major damage in those areas.  Heavy rain is very likely to cause flash floods in some locations.  Tropical Cyclone Fytia could also cause a storm surge of up to 10 feet (3 meters) along parts of the west coast of Madagascar.

Tropical Cyclone Fytia Forms Over Mozambique Channel

Tropical Cyclone Fytia formed over the Mozambique Channel on Thursday.  At 7:00 p.m. EST on Thursday the center of Tropical Cyclone Fytia was located at latitude 15.6°S and longitude 42.4°E which put the center about 270 miles (435 km) west of Mahajanga, Madagascar.  Fytia was moving toward the east-southeast at 4 m.p.h. (6 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 996 mb.

A low pressure system over the Mozambique Channel strengthened on Thursday and Meteo France La Reunion designated the system as Tropical Cyclone Fytia.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Fytia organized quickly on Thursday.  The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the center of Fytia’s circulation.  A small eye appeared to be forming at the center of Tropical Cyclone Fytia.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms revolved around the center of Fytia’s circulation.  Storms near the center of Fytia generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Fytia was small.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 70 miles (110 km) from the center of Fytia’s circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Fytia will move through an environment very favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Fytia will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move under the middle of an upper level ridge that is over the Mozambique Channel.  The upper level winds are weak in the middle of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Cyclone Fytia will intensify during the next 24 hours.  Fytia could rapidly intensify to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon on Friday.

Tropical Cyclone Fytia will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system that is over the South Indian Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Fytia slowly toward the east-southeast during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Fytia will approach the west coast of Madagascar between Soalala and Besalampy on Friday evening.

Tropical Cyclone Fytia will bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to the coast of west central Madagascar.  Heavy rain is very likely to cause flash floods in some locations.  Fytia could also cause a storm surge of up to 7 feet (2 meters) along parts of the west coast of Madagascar.

 

Tropical Cyclone Luana Brings Wind and Rain to Western Australia

Tropical Cyclone Luana brought wind and rain to Western Australia on Saturday.  At 10:00 a.m. EST on Saturday the center of Tropical Cyclone Luana was located at latitude 17.5°S and longitude 123.1°E which put the center about 35 miles (55 km) west of Derby, Australia.  Luana was moving toward the southeast at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 987 mb.

The Australian Bureau of Meteorology issued a Warning that was in effect for the portion of the coast from Broome to Cockatoo Island.  The Warning included Derby.

The center of Tropical Cyclone Luana made landfall on the Dampier Peninsula between Beagle Bay and Cape Leveque early on Saturday.  Luana intensified prior to making landfall.  Tropical Cyclone Luana was the equivalent of a strong tropical storm at the time of landfall.

The distribution of wind speeds in Tropical Cyclone Luana became more symmetrical before it made landfall.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 90 miles (145 km) from the center of Luana’s circulation.

A weather station in Derby in Western Australia reported a sustained wind speed of 43 m.p.h. (69 km/h) and a wind gust of 60 m.p.h. (96 km/h).  That weather station reported 7.43 inches (188.8 mm) of rain so far.

A weather station in Broome reported a sustained wind speed of 25 m.p.h. (41 km/h) and a wind gust of 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h).  The weather station in Broome reported 1.87 inches (47.4 mm) of rain.

Tropical Cyclone Luana Will move around the northwestern part of a high pressure system over Australia.  The high pressure system will steer Luana toward the south-southeast during the next 24 hours.   On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Luana will move inland over Western Australia south of Derby during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Luana will bring strong winds and heavy rain to parts of Western Australia.   Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Flood Warnings are in effect for the West Kimberley District and the North Kimberley District.

A Flood Watch is in effect for the Western Sandy Desert.

Tropical Cyclone Luana could also cause a storm surge of up to 7 feet (2 meters) along the coast of King Sound.

Tropical Cyclone Luana will weaken gradually as it moves farther inland over Western Australia.

Tropical Cyclone Luana Approaches Western Australia

Tropical Cyclone Luana was approaching the coast of Western Australia on Friday afternoon.  At 4:00 p.m. EST on Friday the center of Tropical Cyclone Luana was located at latitude 16.3°S and longitude 121.7°E which put the center about 140 miles (230 km) north-northwest of Broome, Australia.  Luana was moving toward the southeast at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 994 mb.

The Australian Bureau of Meteorology issued a Warning for the portion of the coast from Broome to Kuri Bay.  The Warning included Derby.

A Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Bidyadanga to Broome.

Tropical Cyclone Luana strengthened on Friday as it moved closer to the coast of Western Australia.  More thunderstorms formed near the center of Luana’s circulation.  More thunderstorms developed in bands revolving around the center of Tropical Cyclone Luana.  Storms near the center of Luana generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The distribution of wind speeds in Tropical Cyclone Luana was asymmetrical.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 115 miles (185 km) in the northeastern quadrant of Luana’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out only 60 miles (95 km) in the other parts of Tropical Cyclone Luana.

Tropical Cyclone Luana will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next few hours.  Luana will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C.   It will move under the middle part of an upper level ridge that is northwest of Australia.   The upper level winds are weak in the middle of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.   Tropical Cyclone Luana will Intensify during the next few hours.

Tropical Cyclone Luana Will move around the northwestern part of a high pressure system over Australia.  The high pressure system will steer Luana toward the southeast during the next 24 hours.   On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Luana will make landfall on the coast of Western Australia between Beagle Bay and Cape Leveque in a few hours.

Tropical Cyclone Luana will bring strong winds and heavy rain to the portion of Western Australia between Broome and Kuri Bay.  Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Flood Watches are in effect for the Northwest Kimberley and Western Sandy Desert regions.

Tropical Cyclone Luana could also cause a storm surge of up to 7 feet (2 meters) along the coast of Western Australia.

Tropical Low Moves Toward Western Australia

A Tropical Low over the South Indian Ocean was moving toward the coast of Western Australia on Thursday night.  The U.S. Joint Typhoon Warning Center is now designating the Tropical Low as Tropical Cyclone 17S.

At 10:00 p.m. EST on Thursday the center of Tropical Cyclone 17S was located at latitude 13.6°S and longitude 120.2°E which put the center about 355 miles (575 km) north-northwest of Broome, Australia.  Tropical Cyclone 17S was moving toward the southeast at 16 m.p.h. (26 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 955 mb.

The Australian Bureau of Meteorology issued a Warning for the portion of the coast from Broome to Kuri Bay.  The Warning included Derby.

A Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Bidyadanga to Broome.  A Watch was also in effect for the portion of the coast from Kuri Bay to Mitchell Plateau.

Tropical Cyclone 17S was exhibiting more organization on Thursday evening.  More thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the eastern and western side of the tropical cyclone.  There still were not a lot of thunderstorms near the center of Tropical Cyclone 17S.  The thunderstorms were starting to generate more upper level divergence that was pumping mass away from the tropical cyclone.  The removal of mass was causing the surface pressure to decrease.

The strongest winds were occurring in the northern side of Tropical Cyclone 17S.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 175 miles (280 km) in the northern side of the tropical cyclone.  The winds in the southern half of Tropical Cyclone 17S were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Cyclone 17S will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Tropical Cyclone 17S will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C.  It will move under the middle part of an upper level ridge that is northwest of Australia.  The upper level winds are weak in the middle of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Cyclone 17S will Intensify during the next 24 hours.  It could intensify rapidly.

Tropical Cyclone 17S Will move around the northwestern part of a high pressure system over Australia.  The high pressure system will steer the tropical cyclone toward the southeast during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone 17S will approach the coast of Western Australia near Cape Leveque in 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone 17S will bring strong winds and heavy rain to the portion of Western Australia between Broome and Kuri Bay.  Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Flood Watches are in effect for the Northwest Kimberley and Western Sandy Desert regions.

Tropical Cyclone 17S could also cause a storm surge of up to 7 feet (2 meters) along the coast of Western Australia.

Tropical Low Prompts Watch for Western Australia

The potential risk posed by a Tropical Low over the South Indian Ocean prompted the Australian Bureau of Meteorology to issue a Watch for a portion of the coast of Western Australia on Wednesday evening.  The Tropical Low is currently designated as Invest 91S by the U.S. Joint Typhoon Warning Center.

At 10:00 p.m. EST on Wednesday the center of the Tropical Low was located at latitude 11.4°S and longitude 118.9°E which put the center about 510 miles (825 km) northwest of Broome, Australia.  The Tropical Low was moving toward the southeast at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 30 m.p.h. (50 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1001 mb.

The Australian Bureau of Meteorology issued a Watch for the portion of the coast of Western Australia from Bidyadanga to Mitchell Plateau.  The Watch included Broome and Derby.

The circulation of the Tropical Low was in the early stages of organization on Wednesday evening.  There were not many thunderstorms near the center of the Tropical Low.  Thunderstorms were occurring in a band in the southern periphery of the circulation around the Tropical Low.  There also were not many thunderstorms in the northern side of the Tropical Low.

The Tropical Low will move through an environment favorable for the formation of a tropical cyclone during the next 24 hours.  The Tropical Low will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C.  It will move under the middle part of an upper level ridge that is northwest of Australia.  The upper level winds are weak in the middle of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  The Tropical Low is likely to continue to get better organized during the next 24 hours.

The Tropical Low Will move around the western side of a high pressure system over Australia.  The high pressure system will steer the Tropical Low toward the southeast during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, the Tropical Low will approach the coast of Western Australia in 48 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Ewetse Brings Wind and Rain to Madagascar

Tropical Cyclone Ewetse brought wind and rain to Madagascar on Wednesday.  At 4:00 a.m. EST on Wednesday the center of the Tropical Cyclone Ewetse was located at latitude 24.0°S and longitude 43.7°E which put the center about 40 miles (65 km) south of Toliara, Madagascar.  Ewetse was moving toward the east at-northeast 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 995 mb.

The center of Tropical Cyclone Ewetse made landfall on the coast of southwest Madagascar south of Toliara on Wednesday morning.  Ewetse was the equivalent of a tropical storm at the time of landfall.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 115 miles (185 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Ewetse.

Tropical Cyclone Ewetse will move around the eastern portion of a high pressure system that is east of South Africa.  The high pressure system will steer Ewetse toward the northeast during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Ewetse will move inland over southern Madagascar.

Tropical Cyclone Eweyse will weaken as it moves inland over southern Madagascar.  Ewetse will continue to bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to parts of Madagascar during the rest of Wednesday.  Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

 

Tropical Cyclone Ewetse Forms Southwest of Madagascar

Tropical Cyclone Ewetse formed over the southern Mozambique Channel southwest of Madagascar on Tuesday.  At 4:00 p.m. EST on Tuesday the center of the Tropical Cyclone Ewetse was located at latitude 25.4°S and longitude 41.9°E which put the center about 200 miles (325 km) west of Beloha, Madagascar.  Ewetse was moving toward the east at 16 m.p.h. (26 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 996 mb.

A low pressure system over the southern Mozambique Channel southwest of Madagascar strengthened on Tuesday and Meteo France La Reunion designated the system as Tropical Cyclone Ewetse.

Thunderstorms were developing near the center of Tropical Cyclone Ewetse on Tuesday afternoon.  More thunderstorms also formed in bands in the southern half of Ewetse’s circulation.  Bands in the northern side of Tropical Cyclone Ewetse consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Storms near the center of Ewetse generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the south and east of the tropical cyclone.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The distribution of wind speeds in Tropical Cyclone Ewetse was relatively symmetrical.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 125 miles (200 km) from the center of Ewetse’s circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Ewetse will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 12 hours.  Ewetse will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 27°C.  It will move under the northeastern part of an upper level trough that is east of South Africa.  The upper level trough will produce northwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Ewetse’s circulation.  Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear.  The moderate vertical wind shear will inhibit intensification, but the wind shear will not be enough to prevent intensification.  Tropical Cyclone Ewetse is likely to intensify during the next 12 hours.

The upper level trough east of South Africa will steer Tropical Cyclone Ewetse toward the east during the next 12 hours.  On its anticipated track, the center of Tropical Cyclone Ewetse will reach the coast of southwest Madagascar west of Beloha in 12 hours.  Ewetse will move over southern Madagascar on Wednesday.

Tropical Cyclone Ewetse will bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to southern Madagascar on Wednesday.  Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations.

Elsewhere over the South Indian Ocean, Tropical Cyclone Dudzai was continuing to make a transition to an extratropical cyclone as it moved farther to the south of Mauritus.  At 1:00 p.m. EST on Tuesday the center of the Tropical Cyclone Dudzai was located at latitude 26.2°S and longitude 56.7°E which put the center about 365 miles (590 km) south of Port Louis, Mauritius.  Dudzai was moving toward the south-southwest at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 988 mb.