Tropical Cyclone Ewetse formed over the southern Mozambique Channel southwest of Madagascar on Tuesday.  At 4:00 p.m. EST on Tuesday the center of the Tropical Cyclone Ewetse was located at latitude 25.4°S and longitude 41.9°E which put the center about 200 miles (325 km) west of Beloha, Madagascar.  Ewetse was moving toward the east at 16 m.p.h. (26 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 996 mb.

A low pressure system over the southern Mozambique Channel southwest of Madagascar strengthened on Tuesday and Meteo France La Reunion designated the system as Tropical Cyclone Ewetse.

Thunderstorms were developing near the center of Tropical Cyclone Ewetse on Tuesday afternoon.  More thunderstorms also formed in bands in the southern half of Ewetse’s circulation.  Bands in the northern side of Tropical Cyclone Ewetse consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Storms near the center of Ewetse generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the south and east of the tropical cyclone.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The distribution of wind speeds in Tropical Cyclone Ewetse was relatively symmetrical.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 125 miles (200 km) from the center of Ewetse’s circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Ewetse will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 12 hours.  Ewetse will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 27°C.  It will move under the northeastern part of an upper level trough that is east of South Africa.  The upper level trough will produce northwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Ewetse’s circulation.  Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear.  The moderate vertical wind shear will inhibit intensification, but the wind shear will not be enough to prevent intensification.  Tropical Cyclone Ewetse is likely to intensify during the next 12 hours.

The upper level trough east of South Africa will steer Tropical Cyclone Ewetse toward the east during the next 12 hours.  On its anticipated track, the center of Tropical Cyclone Ewetse will reach the coast of southwest Madagascar west of Beloha in 12 hours.  Ewetse will move over southern Madagascar on Wednesday.

Tropical Cyclone Ewetse will bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to southern Madagascar on Wednesday.  Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations.

Elsewhere over the South Indian Ocean, Tropical Cyclone Dudzai was continuing to make a transition to an extratropical cyclone as it moved farther to the south of Mauritus.  At 1:00 p.m. EST on Tuesday the center of the Tropical Cyclone Dudzai was located at latitude 26.2°S and longitude 56.7°E which put the center about 365 miles (590 km) south of Port Louis, Mauritius.  Dudzai was moving toward the south-southwest at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 988 mb.