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Tropical Cyclone Ewetse Forms Southwest of Madagascar

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Tropical Cyclone Ewetse formed over the southern Mozambique Channel southwest of Madagascar on Tuesday.  At 4:00 p.m. EST on Tuesday the center of the Tropical Cyclone Ewetse was located at latitude 25.4°S and longitude 41.9°E which put the center about 200 miles (325 km) west of Beloha, Madagascar.  Ewetse was moving toward the east at 16 m.p.h. (26 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 996 mb.

A low pressure system over the southern Mozambique Channel southwest of Madagascar strengthened on Tuesday and Meteo France La Reunion designated the system as Tropical Cyclone Ewetse.

Thunderstorms were developing near the center of Tropical Cyclone Ewetse on Tuesday afternoon.  More thunderstorms also formed in bands in the southern half of Ewetse’s circulation.  Bands in the northern side of Tropical Cyclone Ewetse consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Storms near the center of Ewetse generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the south and east of the tropical cyclone.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The distribution of wind speeds in Tropical Cyclone Ewetse was relatively symmetrical.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 125 miles (200 km) from the center of Ewetse’s circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Ewetse will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 12 hours.  Ewetse will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 27°C.  It will move under the northeastern part of an upper level trough that is east of South Africa.  The upper level trough will produce northwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Ewetse’s circulation.  Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear.  The moderate vertical wind shear will inhibit intensification, but the wind shear will not be enough to prevent intensification.  Tropical Cyclone Ewetse is likely to intensify during the next 12 hours.

The upper level trough east of South Africa will steer Tropical Cyclone Ewetse toward the east during the next 12 hours.  On its anticipated track, the center of Tropical Cyclone Ewetse will reach the coast of southwest Madagascar west of Beloha in 12 hours.  Ewetse will move over southern Madagascar on Wednesday.

Tropical Cyclone Ewetse will bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to southern Madagascar on Wednesday.  Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations.

Elsewhere over the South Indian Ocean, Tropical Cyclone Dudzai was continuing to make a transition to an extratropical cyclone as it moved farther to the south of Mauritus.  At 1:00 p.m. EST on Tuesday the center of the Tropical Cyclone Dudzai was located at latitude 26.2°S and longitude 56.7°E which put the center about 365 miles (590 km) south of Port Louis, Mauritius.  Dudzai was moving toward the south-southwest at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 988 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Dudzai Moves Southeast of Mauritius

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Tropical Cyclone Dudzai moved southeast of Mauritius on Monday.  At 10:00 p.m. EST on Monday the center of the Tropical Cyclone Dudzai was located at latitude 23.5°S and longitude 56.0°E which put the center about 205 miles (330 km) south-southeast of Port Louis, Mauritius.  Dudzai was moving toward the southwest at 16 m.p.h. (26 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 994 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Dudzai strengthened a little on Monday even though it was in the early stages of a transition to an extratropical cyclone.  The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the western side of the center of Dudzai’s circulation.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms revolved around the center of Tropical Cyclone Dudzai.  Storms near the center of Dudzai generated some upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.  The removal of mass in the upper levels was very nearly equal to the convergence of mass in the lower levels of the atmosphere.  So the surface pressure remained nearly constant on Monday.

The distribution of wind speeds in Tropical Cyclone Dudzai became a little more symmetrical even though Dudzai was in the early stages of a transition to an extratropical cyclone.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 125 miles (200 km) in the southern half of Dudzai’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 90 miles (145 km) in the northern half of Tropical Cyclone Dudzai.

Tropical Cyclone Duzai will move through an environment that will be unfavorable for intensification a tropical cyclone during the next 24 hours.  Dudzai will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 25°C.  It will move under the middle of an upper level low that is south of Mauritius.  The upper level winds will blow from the same direction as the winds at lower levels in the atmosphere.  So there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Cyclone Dudzai is likely to maintain its intensity while it continues to make a transition to an extratropical cyclone during the next couple of days.

Tropical Cyclone Dudzai will move around the western part of a high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Dudzai toward the south during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, tropical Cyclone Dudzai will move farther to the south of Mauritius on Tuesday.

 

Tropical Cyclone Grant Moves Northeast of Mauritius

Tropical Cyclone Grant moved northeast of Mauritius on Saturday.  At 10:00 p.m. EST on Saturday the center of Tropical Cyclone Grant was located at latitude 15.6°S and longitude 62.3°E which put the center about 480 miles (775 km) northeast of Port Louis, Mauritius.  Grant was moving toward the west-southwest at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1002 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Grant weakened slightly earlier on Saturday.  However, more thunderstorms developed in Grant’s circulation on Saturday evening.  Numerous thunderstorms formed in the bands in the western half of Tropical Cyclone Grant.  New thunderstorms also started to develop in bands east of the center of Grant’s circulation.  Thunderstorms near the center of Grant began to generate more upper level divergence that pumped more mass away from the tropical cyclone.

Tropical Cyclone Grant will move through an environment that will be somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Grant will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C.  It will move under the northern part of an upper level ridge over the South Indian Ocean.  The upper level ridge will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of Grant’s circulation.  Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear. The moderate wind shear will inhibit intensification, but the wind shear will be less than it has been during the past few days. Tropical Cyclone Grant could intensity during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Grant will move around the northern side of a high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Grant toward the west-southwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Grant will pass north of Mauritius and La Reunion on Monday.  Grant could approach the east coast of Madagascar on Tuesday.

Tropical Cyclone Chenge Churns West

Tropical Cyclone Chenge was churning westward over the South Indian Ocean on Wednesday morning.  At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Chenge was located at latitude 10.6°S and longitude 61.6°E which put the center about 735 miles (1185 km) north-northeast of Port Louis, Mauritius.  Chenge was moving toward the west-southwest at 15 m.p.h. (24 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 70 m.p.h. (110 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 979 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Chenge was maintaining its intensity as it churned westward on Wednesday morning.  A ragged eye was visible at the center of Chenge’s circulation on satellite images.  The eye was surrounded by a broken ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Tropical Cyclone Chenge.  Storms near the center of Chenge generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.  The removal of mass in the upper levels was nearly equal to the inflow of mass in the lower levels of the atmosphere.  So, the surface pressure did not change much.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Chenge was large.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 185 miles (295 km) from the center of Chenge’s circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Chenge will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Chenge will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 27°C.  It will move under the northern side of an upper level ridge over the South Indian Ocean.  The upper level ridge will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of Chenge’s circulation.  Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear.  The vertical wind shear will inhibit intensification, but the wind shear may not be enough to prevent intensification.  Tropical Cyclone Chenge is likely to maintain its intensity during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Chenge will move around the northern side of a high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Chenge toward the west during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Chenge will move north of Madagascar during the end of the weekend.

Tropical Cyclone Dikeledi Passes North of Mauritius

Tropical Cyclone Dikeledi was passing north of Mauritius on Thursday.  At 4:00 p.m. EST on Thussday the center of Tropical Cyclone Dikeledi was located at latitude 13.5°S and longitude 59.4°E which put the center about 485 miles (785 km) north-northeast of Port Louis, Mauritius.  Dikeledi was moving toward the west at 17 m.p.h. (28 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 999 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Dikeledi strengthened gradually as it moved over the South Indian Ocean north-northeast of Mauritius on Thursday.  More thunderstorms formed near the center of Dikeledi’s circulation.  The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the southern and western sides of the center of Tropical Cyclone Dikeledi.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Dikeledi.  Storms near the center of Dikeledi generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.

The distribution of wind speeds in Tropical Cyclone Dikeledi was asymmetrical.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 70 miles (110 km) in the southern half of Dikeledi’s circulation.  The winds in the northern half of Tropical Cyclone Dikeledi were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Cyclone Dikeledi will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Dikeledi will move over water where where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C.  It will move under the northern part of an upper level ridge over the South Indian Ocean.  The upper level ridge will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of Dikeledi’s circulation.  Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear, but the wind shear will not be enough to prevent intensification.  Tropical Cyclone Dikeledi will intensify during the next 24 hours.  Dikeledi could strengthen to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon within 36 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Dikeledi will move around the northern side of a high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer DIkeledi toward the west during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Dikeledi will approach northern Madagascar in 36 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Dikeledi Forms Northeast of Mauritius

Tropical Cyclone Dikeledi formed over the South Indian Ocean northeast of Mauritius on Wednesday evening.  At 7:00 p.m. EST on Wednesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Dikeledi was located at latitude 15.0°S and longitude 66.4°E which put the center about 685 miles (1110 km) northeast of Port Louis, Mauritius.  Dikeledi was moving toward the west at 22 m.p.h. (33 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1001 mb.

A low pressure system over the South Indian Ocean northeast of Mauritius strengthened on Wednesday evening and Meteo France la Reunion designated the system as Tropical Cyclone Dikeledi.  More thunderstorms formed near the center of Tropical Cyclone Dikeledi.  The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the northern and eastern sides of the center of Dikeledi’s circulation.  Other bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Tropical Cyclone Dikeledi.  Storms near the center of Dikeledi generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the south and west of the tropical cyclone.

Tropical Cyclone Dikeledi will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Dikeledi will move over water where where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C.  It will move under the northern part of an upper level ridge over the South Indian Ocean.  The upper level ridge will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of Dikeledi’s circulation.  Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear, but the wind shear will not be enough to prevent intensification.  Tropical Cyclone Dikeledi will intensify during the next 24 hours.  Dikeledi could strengthen to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon later this week.

Tropical Cyclone Dikeledi will move around the northern side of a high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer DIkeledi toward the west during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Dikeledi will pass north of Mauritius and La Reunion.  Dikeledi is likely to approach northern Madagascar later this week.

Tropical Cyclone Bheki Passes South of Mauritius

Tropical Cyclone Bheki was passing south of Mauritius on Thursday morning.  At 4:00 a.m. EST on Thursday the center of Tropical Cyclone Bheki was located at latitude 21.4°S and longitude 56.9°E which put the center about 140 miles (230 km) east-southeast of Port Louis, Mauritius.  Bheki was moving toward the southwest at 16 m.p.h. (26 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1003 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Bheki was weakening as it passed south of Mauritius on Thursday morning.  An upper level trough over Madagascar was producing strong northwesterly winds that were blowing toward the top of Bheki’s circulation.  Those winds were causing strong vertical wind shear.  The strong vertical wind shear was affecting the structure of Tropical Cyclone Bheki.  Thunderstorms were still occurring in bands in the southeastern quadrant of Bheki’s circulation.  Bands in the other parts of Tropical Cyclone Bheki consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.

The asymmetrical distribution of thunderstorms was also affecting the distribution of wind speeds in Tropical Cyclone Bheki.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 115 miles (185 km/h) in the southern side of Bheki’s circulation.  The winds in the northern side of Tropical Cyclone Bheki were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Cyclone Bheki will continue to move through an environment that will be unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Bheki will move over water where where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 25°C.  The upper level trough near Madagascar will continue to cause strong vertical wind shear.  Tropical Cyclone Bheki will continue to weaken during the next 24 hours because of the strong vertical wind shear.  Bheki could make a transition to an extratropical cyclone.

Tropical Cyclone Bheki will move around the northwestern part of a high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Bheki toward the southwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, the center Tropical Cyclone Bheki will pass south of Mauritius and La Reunion.

Tropical Cyclone Eleanor Weakens South of Mauritius

Tropical Cyclone Eleanor weakened south of Mauritius on Friday. At 10:00 a.m. EST on Friday the center of Tropical Cyclone Eleanor was located at latitude 23.9°S and longitude 58.4°E which put it about 265 miles (430 km) south-southeast of Port Louis, Mauritius. Eleanor was moving toward the south at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 995 mb.

An upper level trough southeast of Madagascar produced strong northwesterly winds that blew across the top of Tropical Cyclone Eleanor. Those winds caused strong vertical wind shear. The strong upper level winds also blew the upper part pf Eleanor’s circulation to the southeast of the circulation in the lower levels of the atmosphere. Bands revolving around the center of Tropical Cyclone Eleanor consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. A few thunderstorms were still occurring in bands in the southeastern periphery of Eleanor’s circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 140 miles (225 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Eleanor.

Tropical Cyclone Eleanor will move through an environment unfavorable for intensification during the next 36 hours. Eleanor will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 27°C. However, the upper level trough south of Madagascar will continue to cause strong vertical wind shear. The strong wind shear will cause Tropical Cyclone Eleanor to continue to weaken during the next 36 hours.

Since the circulation around Tropical Cyclone Eleanor exists in the lower levels of the atmosphere, it will be steered by winds in those levels. Eleanor will move around the northern side of a high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Eleanor toward the west. On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Eleanor will move south of Mauritius and La Reunion during the next 36 hours.

Elsewhere over the South Indian Ocean, Tropical Cyclone Lincoln continued to spin near the coast of Western Australia. At 10:00 a.m. EST on Friday the center of Tropical Cyclone Lincoln was located at latitude 19.3°S and longitude 113.5°E which put it about 245 miles (395 km) north of Exmouth, Australia. Lincoln was moving toward the southwest at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 999 mb. A Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Onslow to Wooramel Roadhouse, Australia. The Warning included Exmouth and Carnarvon.

Tropical Cyclone Eleanor Moves Southeast of Mauritius

Tropical Cyclone Eleanor moved southeast of Mauritius on Thursday morning. At 10:00 a.m. EST on Thursday the center of Tropical Cyclone Eleanor was located at latitude 21.7°S and longitude 58.4°E which put it about 120 miles (195 km) southeast of Port Louis, Mauritius. Eleanor was moving toward the south-southeast at 15 m.p.h. (24 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 992 mb.

Bands in the western part of Tropical Cyclone Eleanor produced gusty winds and rain showers in Mauritius on Thursday. A weather station at the Sir Seewoosagur Ramgoolam International Airport (FIMP) in Port St. Louis reported a sustained wind speed of 26 m.p.h. (43 km/h) and a wind gust of 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h).

The distribution of thunderstorms in Tropical Cyclone Eleanor was asymmetrical. Thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the eastern and southern parts of Eleanor’s circulation. Bands in the northern and western parts of Tropical Cyclone Eleanor consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. An upper level trough south of Madagascar produced northwesterly winds that blew toward the top of Eleanor’s circulation. Those winds caused moderate vertical wind shear and the wind shear caused the asymmetrical distribution of thunderstorms. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 125 miles (200 km) from the center of Eleanor’s circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Eleanor will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Eleanor will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C. However, the upper level trough south of Madagascar will continue to cause moderate vertical wind shear. The wind shear will inhibit intensification, but Tropical Cyclone Eleanor could strengthen a little during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Eleanor will move around the northwestern part of a high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Eleanor toward the south-southwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Eleanor will gradually move farther to the south-southeast of Mauritius.

Tropical Cyclone Eleanor Churns North-northeast of Mauritius

Tropical Cyclone Eleanor was churning over the South Indian Ocean north-northeast of Mauritius on Tuesday night. At 10:00 p.m. EST on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Eleanor was located at latitude 15.2°S and longitude 60.6°E which put it about 425 miles (685 km) north-northeast of Port Louis, Mauritius. Eleanor was moving toward the south-southeast at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 993 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Eleanor strengthened gradually on Tuesday as it churned over the South Indian Ocean north-northeast of Mauritius. More thunderstorms developed near the center of Eleanor’s circulation Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Tropical Cyclone Eleanor. Storms near the center of circulation generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 90 miles (145 km km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Eleanor.

Tropical Cyclone Eleanor will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 36 hours. Eleanor will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C. It will move under the axis of an upper level ridge over the South Indian Ocean. The upper level winds are weak near the axis of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Cyclone Eleanor will intensify during the next 36 hours. Eleanor could strengthen to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon.

Tropical Cyclone Eleanor will move around the western end of a high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Eleanor toward the south during the next 36 hours. On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Eleanor will be northeast of Mauritius in 24 hours. Eleanor could be the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon when it is northeast of Mauritius.

Elsewhere, former Tropical Cyclone Lincoln moved across northern Australia toward the coast of Western Australia. At 7:00 p.m. EST on Tuesday the center of former Tropical Cyclone Lincoln was located at latitude 15.9°S and longitude 124.6°E which put it about 65 miles (105 km) east-northeast of Cockatoo Island. Lincoln was moving toward the west-northwest at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 25 m.p.h. (40 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1004 mb.

The Australian Bureau of Meteorology issued a Watch for the portion of the coast from Roebourne to Ningaloo. The Watch included Karratha, Dampier, Onslow and Exmouth.