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Tropical Cyclone Eleanor Weakens South of Mauritius

Tropical Cyclone Eleanor weakened south of Mauritius on Friday. At 10:00 a.m. EST on Friday the center of Tropical Cyclone Eleanor was located at latitude 23.9°S and longitude 58.4°E which put it about 265 miles (430 km) south-southeast of Port Louis, Mauritius. Eleanor was moving toward the south at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 995 mb.

An upper level trough southeast of Madagascar produced strong northwesterly winds that blew across the top of Tropical Cyclone Eleanor. Those winds caused strong vertical wind shear. The strong upper level winds also blew the upper part pf Eleanor’s circulation to the southeast of the circulation in the lower levels of the atmosphere. Bands revolving around the center of Tropical Cyclone Eleanor consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. A few thunderstorms were still occurring in bands in the southeastern periphery of Eleanor’s circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 140 miles (225 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Eleanor.

Tropical Cyclone Eleanor will move through an environment unfavorable for intensification during the next 36 hours. Eleanor will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 27°C. However, the upper level trough south of Madagascar will continue to cause strong vertical wind shear. The strong wind shear will cause Tropical Cyclone Eleanor to continue to weaken during the next 36 hours.

Since the circulation around Tropical Cyclone Eleanor exists in the lower levels of the atmosphere, it will be steered by winds in those levels. Eleanor will move around the northern side of a high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Eleanor toward the west. On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Eleanor will move south of Mauritius and La Reunion during the next 36 hours.

Elsewhere over the South Indian Ocean, Tropical Cyclone Lincoln continued to spin near the coast of Western Australia. At 10:00 a.m. EST on Friday the center of Tropical Cyclone Lincoln was located at latitude 19.3°S and longitude 113.5°E which put it about 245 miles (395 km) north of Exmouth, Australia. Lincoln was moving toward the southwest at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 999 mb. A Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Onslow to Wooramel Roadhouse, Australia. The Warning included Exmouth and Carnarvon.

Tropical Cyclone Lincoln Prompts Warning for Western Australia

The potential risk posed by Tropical Cyclone Lincoln prompted the Australian Bureau of Meteorology to issue a Warning for a portion of the coast of Western Australia on Thursday. At 10:00 a.m. EST on Thursday the center of Tropical Cyclone Lincoln was located at latitude 17.8°S and longitude 117.7°E which put it about 175 miles (280 km) north of Port Hedland, Australia. Lincoln was moving toward the southwest at 15 m.p.h. (24 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 992 mb.

A Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Mardie to Ningaloo, Australia. The Warning included Exmouth and Onslow. A Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Ningaloo to Wooramel Roadhouse, Australia. The Watch included Carnarvon.

Tropical Cyclone Lincoln was strengthening gradually as it moved over the South Indian Ocean near Western Australia on Thursday. Even though Lincoln was strengthening, the distribution of thunderstorms was asymmetrical. Thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the northern and western parts of Tropical Cyclone Lincoln. Bands in the southern and eastern parts of Lincoln’s circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. An upper level ridge over Australia was producing northeasterly winds that were blowing toward the top of Tropical Cyclone Lincoln. Those winds were causing moderate vertical wind shear and the wind shear was causing the asymmetrical distribution of thunderstorms. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 85 miles (135 km) from the center of Lincoln’s circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Lincoln will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Lincoln will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C. However, the upper level ridge over Australia will continue to cause vertical wind shear. The wind shear will inhibit intensification, but the shear may not be enough to prevent intensification. Tropical Cyclone Eleanor is likely to strengthen gradually during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Lincoln will move around the northwestern part of a high pressure system over Australia. The high pressure system will steer Lincoln toward the southwest during the next 24 hours. Lincoln will move more toward the south when it reaches the western end of the high pressure system on Friday. Tropical Cyclone Lincoln could approach the coast of Western Australia between Mardie and Caranarvon in 36 hours.