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Tropical Cyclone Courtney Develops Northwest of Australia

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Tropical Cyclone Courtney developed over the South Indian Ocean northwest of Australia on Tuesday.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Courtney was located at latitude 17.4°S and longitude 106.3°E which put the center about 585 miles (945 km) northwest of Exmouth, Australia.  Courtney was moving toward the west-southwest at 17 m.p.h. (28 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 993 mb.

A low pressure system over the South Indian Ocean northwest of Australia strengthened on Tuesday and the Australian Bureau of Meteorology designated the system as Tropical Cyclone Courtney.  More thunderstorms formed near the center of Courtney’s circulation.  More thunderstorms also developed in bands revolving around the center of Tropical Cyclone Courtney.  Storms near the center of Courtney generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Courtney was small.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 85 miles (135 km) from the center of Courtney’s circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Courtney will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Courtney will move over water where where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C.  It will move under the northern part of an upper level ridge that is west of Australia.  The upper level ridge will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of Courtney’s circulation.  Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear.  The moderate vertical wind shear will inhibit intensification, but the wind shear may not be enough to prevent intensification.  Tropical Cyclone Courtney is likely to intensify during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Courtney will move around the northern side of a high pressure system that is over the South Indian Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Courtney toward the west during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Courtney will pass far to the south of Christmas Islands.  Courtney will pass south of the Cocos Islands later this week.

Tropical Cyclone Bianca Strengthens to Equivalent of Major Hurricane

Tropical Cyclone Bianca strengthened to the equivalent of a major hurricane on Monday night.  At 4:00 a.m. EST on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Bianca was located at latitude 22.3°S and longitude 102.0°E which put the center about 765 miles (1235 km) west of the Exmouth, Australia.  Bianca was moving toward the south-southwest at 11 m.p.h. (17 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 115 m.p.h. (185 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 145 m.p.h. (235 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 962 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Bianca strengthened to the equivalent of a major hurricane over the South Indian Ocean west of Australia on Monday night.  A circular eye with a diameter of 20 miles (32 km) was at the center of Bianca’s circulation.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms revolved around the center of Bianca’s circulation.  Storms near the center of Bianca generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Bianca was small.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 25 miles (40 km) from the center of Bianca’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 100 miles (160 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Bianca.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Bianca was 20.6.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 9.3 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 29.9.

Tropical Cyclone Bianca will move into an environment that will become unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Bianca will move over water where where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 26°C.  It will move under the eastern side of an upper level trough over the South Indian Ocean.  The upper level trough will produce northwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Bianca’s circulation.  Those winds will cause the vertical wind shear to increase.  Tropical Cyclone Bianca will weaken when the vertical wind shear increases.

Tropical Cyclone Bianca will move around the western part of a high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Bianca toward the south during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Bianca will move parallel to the coast of Western Australia.

Tropical Cyclone Alfred Forms over the Coral Sea

Tropical Cyclone Alfred formed over the Coral Sea on Sunday.  At 4:00 a.m. EST on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone Alfred was located at latitude 14.3°S and longitude 153.7°E which put the center about 560 miles (900 km) east-northeast of Cairns, Australia.  Alfred was moving toward the east at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 990 mb.

A low pressure system over the Coral Sea strengthened on Sunday and the Australian Bureau of Meteorology designated the system as Tropical Cyclone Alfred.  The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Alfred exhibited more organization on Sunday.  More thunderstorms formed near the center of Alfred’s circulation.  More thunderstorms also developed in bands revolving around the center of Tropical Cyclone Alfred.  Storms near the center of Alfred generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Alfred was fairly large.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 180 miles (290 km) from the center of Alfred’s circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Alfred will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Alfred will move over water where where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move under the middle of an upper level ridge over the Coral Sea.  The upper level winds are weak near the middle of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Cyclone Alfred will intensify during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Alfred will move around the southern side of a high pressure system that is near the Equator.  The high pressure system will steer Alfred toward the east during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Alfred will move farther away from Australia.  Alfred is like to start to move toward the south early next week.

Elsewhere, Tropical Cyclone Bianca formed over the South Indian Ocean northwest of Australia.  At 4:00 a.m. EST on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone Bianca was located at latitude 17.0°S and longitude 106.9°E which put the center about 590 miles (950 km) northwest of Exmouth, Australia.  Bianca was moving toward the west-southwest at 15 m.p.h. (24 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 998 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Vince Intensifies to Equivalent of a Major Hurricane

Tropical Cyclone Vince intensified to the equivalent of a major hurricane over the South Indian Ocean southwest of the Cocos Islands during Monday night.  At 4:00 a.m. EST on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Vince was located at latitude 18.6°S and longitude 89.6°E which put the center about 595 miles (960 km) southwest of the Cocos Islands.  Vince was moving toward the southwest at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 115 m.p.h. (185 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 145 m.p.h. (235 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 958 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Vince intensified to the equivalent of a major hurricane during Monday night.  Vince appeared to go through an eyewall replacement cycle after it intensified.  The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the original small eye at the center of Vince’s circulation.  The small eye dissipated and a larger outer eye formed.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Vince weakened after the eyewalll replacement cycle.  A ring of thunderstorms surrounded the new larger eye.  The strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  The distribution of thunderstorms around Tropical Cyclone Vince was asymmetrical.  Most of the thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the western side of Vince’s circulation.  Bands in the eastern side of Tropical Cyclone Vince consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Storms near the center of Vince generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the west of the tropical cyclone.

The eyewall replacement cycle caused the size of the circulation around Tropical Cyclone Vince to increase.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 50 miles (80 km) from the center of Vince’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 150 miles (240 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Vince.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Vince was 20.6.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 13.7 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 34.3.  Tropical Cyclone Vince was similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Delta when Delta hit Southwest Louisiana in 2020.

Tropical Cyclone Vince will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Vince will move over water where where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C.  It will move under the northern part of an upper level ridge over the South Indian Ocean.  The upper level ridge will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of Vince’s circulation.  Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear.  Even though Tropical Cyclone Vince will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours, Vince is likely to weaken due to the effects of the eyewall replacement cycle.

Tropical Cyclone Vince will move around the northern side of a high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Vince toward the west-southwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Vince will pass far to the south of Diego Garcia later this week.

Elsewhere, Tropical Cyclone Taliah intensified as it moved farther away from Western Australia.  At 4:00 a.m. EST on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Taliah was located at latitude 15.6°S and longitude 110.4°E which put the center about 515 miles (830 km) north-northwest of Exmouth, Australia.  Taliah was moving toward the west at 15 m.p.h. (24 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 120 m.p.h. (195 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 972 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Faida Brings Wind and Rain to Madagascar

Tropical Cyclone Faida brought wind and rain to Madagascar on Monday night.  At 10:00 p.m. EST on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone Faida was located at latitude 18.5°S and longitude 49.7°E which put the center about 35 miles (55 km) southeast of the Toamasina, Madagascar.  Faida was moving toward the west at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 998 mb.

Even though the center of Tropical Cyclone Faida was just off the east coast of Madagascar on Monday night, bands in the western side of of Faida’s circulation were already over land.  Those bands brought strong winds and locally heavy rain to parts of northern and central Madagascar.

The strongest winds and heaviest rain were in the western half of Tropical Cyclone Faida.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 70 miles (110 km) in the western side of Faida’s circulation.  The winds in the eastern half of Tropical Cyclone Faida were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Cyclone Faida will move around the northern part of a high pressure system over the Southwest Indian Ocean and southern Africa.  The high pressure system will steer Faida toward the west during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Faida will move across Madagascar during the next 36 hours.  The center of Faida’s circulation will pass near Toamasina and Antananarivo.

Tropical Cyclone Faida will continue to drop heavy rain over parts of northern and central Madagascar.  Heavy rain is likely to cause floods in some locations.

Elsewhere, Tropical Cyclone Vince intensified southwest of the Cocos Islands and Tropical Cyclone Taliah continued to spin northwest of Australia.

At 4:00 p.m. EST on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone Vince was located at latitude 17.3°S and longitude 91.5°E which put the center about 465 miles (750 km) southwest of the Cocos Islands.  Vince was moving toward the west-southwest at 17 m.p.h. (28 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 978 mb.

At 4:00 p.m. EST on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone Taliah was located at latitude 15.5°S and longitude 112.4°E which put the center about 485 miles (780 km) north of Exmouth, Australia.  Taliah was moving toward the west at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 105 m.p.h. (165 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 972 mb.

Taliah Strengthens to Equivalent of Hurricane/Typhoon

Tropical Cyclone Taliah strengthened to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon over the South Indian Ocean northwest of Australia on Monday.  At 4:00 a.m. EST on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone Taliah was located at latitude 15.2°S and longitude 113.9°E which put the center about 500 miles (800 km) north of Exmouth, Australia.  Taliah was moving toward the west at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 975 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Taliah strengthened to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon on Monday.  The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the western and northern sides of the center of Taliah’s circulation.  Even though Tropical Cyclone Taliah strengthened, the distribution of thunderstorms was asymmetrical.  Most thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the western and northern parts of Taliah’s circulation.  Bands in the eastern and southern parts of Tropical Cyclone Taliah consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Storms near the center of Taliah generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the west of the tropical cyclone.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 60 miles (95 km/h) in the northern side of Tropical Cyclone Taliah.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 30 miles (50 km) in the southern part of Taliah’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 160 miles (260 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Taliah.

Tropical Cyclone Taliah will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Taliah will move over water where where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C.  It will move under the northern part of an upper level ridge west of Australia.  The upper level ridge will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of Taliah’s circulation.  Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear.  The vertical wind shear will inhibit intensification, but the wind shear will not be enough to prevent intensification.  Tropical Cyclone Taliah is likely to intensify during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Taliah will move around the northern side of a high pressure system that extends from Australia to the South Indian Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Talia toward the west during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Taliah will move farther away from Western Australia.

Elsewhere, Tropical Cyclone Vince intensified south of the Cocos Islands.  4:00 a.m. EST on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone Vince was located at latitude 16.7°S and longitude 94.3°E which put the center about 355 miles (525 km) south-southwest of the Cocos Islands.  Vince was moving toward the west-southwest at 17 m.p.h. (28 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 983 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Sean Rapidly Intensifies to Equivalent of Major Hurricane

Tropical Cyclone Sean rapidly intensified to the equivalent of a major hurricane over the South Indian Ocean west of Australia on Monday.  At 10:00 a.m. EST on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone Sean was located at latitude 23.0°S and longitude 110.4°E which put the center about 210 miles (340 km) west of Exmouth, Australia.  Sean was moving toward the southwest at 13 m.p.h. (21 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 130 m.p.h. (210 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 160 m.p.h. (260 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 936 mb.

A Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Onslow to Ningaloo.  The Warning included Exmouth.

Tropical Cyclone Sean rapidly intensified to the equivalent of a major hurricane west of Australia on Monday.  A small circular eye with a diameter of 10 miles (16 km) was at the center of Sean’s circulation.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Tropical Cyclone Sean.  Storms near the core of Sean generated strong upper level divergence that pumped large quantities of mass away from the tropical cyclone.  The removal of large amounts of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease rapidly.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Sean was relatively small.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 35 miles (55 km) from the center of Sean’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 110 miles (175 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Sean.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Sean was 25.1.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 12.6 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 37.7.  Tropical Cyclone Sean was similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Harvey when Harvey hit Texas in 2017.

Tropical Cyclone Sean will move through an environment that will become unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Sean will move over water where where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 27°C.  It will move under the eastern part of an upper level trough over the South Indian Ocean.  The upper level trough will produce northwesterly winds are that will blow toward the top of Sean’s circulation.  Those winds will cause the vertical wind shear to increase.  The combination of cooler water and  more vertical wind shear will cause Tropical Cyclone Sean to weaken during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Sean will move around the northwestern part of a high pressure system over Australia.  The high pressure system will steer Sean toward the southwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Sean will move a little farther away from the coast of Western Australia.

Bands in the eastern side of Tropical Cyclone Sea will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to the coast of Western Australia.  Heavy rain could cause floods in some locations.  10.78 inches (274 mm) of rain has already fallen at the Karratha Airport.  4.37 inches (111 mm) of rain has already fallen at the Mardie Airport.

Flood Warnings were in effect for parts of the Pilbara and northern Gascoyne regions.  A Flood Warning was in effect for the Lyndon-Minilya Rivers. 

 

Tropical Cyclone Sean Intensifies to Equivalent of Hurricane/Typhoon

Tropical Cyclone Sean intensified to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon near the coast of Western Australia on Sunday.  At 10:00 a.m. EST on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone Sean was located at latitude 20.5°S and longitude 113.9°E which put the center about 125 miles (200 km) north of Exmouth, Australia.   Sean was moving toward the west-southwest at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h).   The minimum surface pressure was 978 mb.

A Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Whim Creek to Ningaloo.  The Warning included Karratha, Damoier, Onslow, and Exmouth.

Tropical Cyclone Sea intensified to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon near the coast of Western Australia on Sunday.  A circular eye with a diameter of 17 miles (28 km) formed at the center of Sean’s circulation.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Tropical Cyclone Sean.  Storms near the core of Sean generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Sean was relatively small.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 25 miles (40 km) from the center of Sean’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 115 miles (185 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Sean.

Tropical Cyclone Sean will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Sean will move over water where where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C.  It will move under the northern part of an upper level ridge northwest of Australia.  The upper level ridge will produce easterly winds are that will blow toward the top of Sean’s circulation.  Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear.  The wind shear will inhibit intensification, but the shear will not be enough to prevent intensification.  Tropical Cyclone Sean will intensify during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Sean will move around the northwestern part of a high pressure system over Australia.  The high pressure system will steer Sean toward the west-southwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Sean will move parallel to the coast of Western Australia.  The center of Sean is forecast to remain over water.

Bands in the southern side of Tropical Cyclone Sea will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to the coast of Western Australia.  Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.  3.74 inches (95 mm) of rain fell at the Lombadina Airstrip.

A Flood Watch was in effect for the coastal parts of the Kimberley and the Pilbara Districts.  Catchments likely to be affected include the West Kimberley Rivers, the De Grey River, the Pilbara Coastal Rivers, the Fortescue River, the Onslow Coast, and the Lyndon-Minilya Rivers.

Tropical Cyclone Sean Strengthens Near Western Australia

Tropical Cyclone Sean strengthened near the coast of Western Australia on Saturday.  At 10:00 p.m. EST on Saturday the center of Tropical Cyclone Sean was located at latitude 19.7°S and longitude 115.7°E which put the center about 120 miles (195 km) northwest of Karratha, Australia.  Sean was moving toward the west-southwest at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 987 mb.

A Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Whim Creek to Ningaloo.  The Warning included Karratha, Damoier, Onslow, and Exmouth.

A former Tropical Low near the coast of Western Australia strengthened on Saturday and the Australian Bureau of Meteorology designated the system as Tropical Cyclone Sean.  The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the western side of the center of Tropical Cyclone Sean.  A circular eye appeared to be forming at the center of Sean’s circulation.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Tropical Cyclone Sean.  Storms near the center of Sean generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.  The removal of mass allowed the surface pressure to decrease.

The distribution of wind speeds around Tropical Cyclone Sean was relatively symmetrical.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 115 miles (185 km) from the center of Sean’s circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Sean will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Sean will move over water where where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C.  It will move under the northern part of an upper level ridge northwest of Australia. The upper level ridge will produce easterly winds are that will blow toward the top of Sean’s circulation.  Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear.  The wind shear will inhibit intensification, but the shear will not be enough to prevent intensification.  Tropical Cyclone Sean will to intensify during the next 24 hours.  Sean could strengthen to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon.

Tropical Cyclone Sean will move around the northwestern part of a high pressure system over Australia.  The high pressure system will steer Sean toward the west-southwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Sean will move parallel to the coast of Western Australia.  The center of Sean is forecast to remain over water.

Bands in the southern side of Tropical Cyclone Sea will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to the coast of Western Australia.  Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Tropical Low Forms Near Western Australia

A Tropical Low formed near the coast of Western Australia on Friday.  At 4:00 p.m. EST on Friday the center of the Tropical Low was located at latitude 19.0°S and longitude 120.0°E which put the center about 100 miles (160 km) northeast of Port Hedland, Australia.  The tropical low was moving toward the west-southwest at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 995 mb.

A Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from De Grey to Dampier.  The Warning included Port Hedland and Karratha.

A Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Ningaloo to Dampier.  The Watch included Onslow and Exmouth.

A low pressure system over the South Indian Ocean near the coast of Western Australia developed a well defined center of circulation and the Australian Bureau of Meteorology designated the system as a Tropical Low.  A ring of thunderstorms was forming around the center of the Tropical Low.  Storms near the center of circulation generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical low.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of circulation.

The Tropical Low will move through an environment favorable for the intensification of a tropical cyclone during the next 24 hours.  The Tropical Low will move over water where where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C.  It will move under the middle of an upper level ridge northwest of Australia.  The upper level winds are weak near the middle of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  The only factor that will inhibit the intensification of the Tropical Low is the fact that the center of circulation is near the coast of Western Australia.  Much of the southern part of the Tropical Low is over land.  The Tropical Low is likely to intensify to a named tropical cyclone during the next 24 hours.

The Tropical Low will move around the northwestern part of a high pressure system over Australia.  The high pressure system will steer the Tropical Low toward the west-southwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, the Tropical Low will move parallel to the coast of Western Australia.  The center of the Tropical Low is forecast to remain over water.

The Tropical Low will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to the coast of Western Australia.  Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations.