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Tropical Cyclone Narelle Hits Western Australia

Tropical Cyclone Narelle hit Western Australia west of Exmouth on Thursday night.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Cyclone Narelle was located at latitude 23.2°S and longitude 113.7°E which put the center about 18 miles (130 km) south-southwest of Exmouth, Australia.  Narelle was moving toward the south-southwest at 16 m.p.h. (26 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 115 m.p.h. (185 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 145 m.p.h. (235 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 955 mb.

The Australian Bureau of Meteorology issued a Warning that is in effect for the portion of the coast from Onslow to Jurien Bay.  The Warning includes Exmouth, Coral Bay, Carnarvon, Denham, and Geraldton.

Tropical Cyclone Narelle was the equivalent of a major hurricane when it made landfall on the coast of Western Australia.  Narelle may have been in the middle of an eyewall replacement cycle at the time of landfall.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Narelle was large.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 80 miles (130 km) from the center of Narelle’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 175 miles (285 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Narelle.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Narelle was 20.6.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 28.3 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 48.9.  Tropical Cyclone Narelle was similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Rita when Rita hit Southwest Louisiana in 2005.

Tropical Cyclone Narelle will move around the northeastern part of an upper level trough that is southwest of Australia.  The upper level trough will steer Narelle toward the south-southeast during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Narelle will move along the coast of Western Australia.  The center of Narelle’s circulation will pass near Carnarvon in 12 hours.  The center of Tropical Cyclone Narelle will be near Morawa in 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Narelle will bring strong winds and heavy rain to Western Australia.  Narelle will be capable of causing major damage.  Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations.

Flood Watches are in effect for western parts of the Pilbara, Gascoyne, Central Coastal, and Lower West Coast catchments.

Tropical Cyclone Narelle could also cause a storm surge of up to 13 feet (4 meters) along parts of the coast.

Tropical Cyclone Narelle Rapidly Intensifies to Equivalent of a Major Hurricane

Tropical Cyclone Narelle rapidly intensified to the equivalent of a major hurricane on Wednesday.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Narelle was located at latitude 18.6°S and longitude 116.8°E which put the center about 150 miles (240 km) north of Karratha, Australia.  Narelle was moving toward the west-southwest at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 120 m.p.h. (195 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 150 m.p.h. (240 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 954 mb.

The Australian Bureau of Meteorology issued a Warning that is in effect for the portion of the coast from Pardoo Roadhouse to Cape Cuvier.  The Warning includes Port Hedland, Karratha, Onslow, Exmouth, and Coral Bay.

A Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from Cape Cuvier to Dongara.  The Watch includes Carnarvon, Denham, and Geraldton.

Tropical Cyclone Narelle rapidly intensified to the equivalent of a major hurricane on Wednesday.  The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the center of Narelle’s circulation.  A large circular eye with a diameter of 45 miles (75 km) formed at the center of Tropical Cyclone Narelle.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Narelle’s circulation.  Storms near the center of Narelle generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The size of the circulation around Tropical Cyclone Narelle increased significantly on Wednesday.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 80 miles (130 km) from the center of Narelle’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 185 miles (295 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Narelle.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Narelle was 22.1  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 24.7 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 46.8.  Tropical Cyclone Narelle was similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Jeanne when Jeanne hit southern Florida in 2004.

Tropical Cyclone Narelle will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Narelle will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move under the northern part of an upper level ridge that is over Western Australia.  The upper level ridge will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of Narelle’s circulation.  Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear, but the wind shear will not be enough to prevent intensification.  Tropical Cyclone Narelle will intensify during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Narelle will move around the western side of a high pressure system that is over Australia.  The high pressure system will steer Narelle toward the southwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Narelle will approach the coast of Western Australia near Exmouth in 24 hours.  Narelle will move toward the south on Friday when it moves around the western end of the high pressure system.

Tropical Cyclone Narelle will bring strong winds and heavy rain to the coast of Western Australia.  Narelle will be capable of causing major damage.  Heavy is likely to cause flash floods in some locations.

Flood Watches are in effect for western parts of the Pilbara, Gascoyne, Central Coastal, and Lower West Coast catchments.

Tropical Cyclone Narelle could also cause a storm surge of up to 13 feet (4 meters) along parts of the coast.

Tropical Cyclone Narelle Intensifies Again

Tropical Cyclone Narelle intensified again on Tuesday as it moved over the South Indian Ocean north of Western Australia.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Narelle was located at latitude 17.6°S and longitude 119.5°E which put the center about 180 miles (290 km) north-northeast of Port Hedland, Australia.  Narelle was moving toward the west-southwest at 17 m.p.h. (28 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 987 mb.

The Australian Bureau of Meteorology issued a Warning that is in effect for the portion of the coast from Bidyadanga to Onslow.  That Warning includes Port Hedland and Karratha.  A Warning remains in effect for the portion of the coast from Cape Leveque to Beagle Bay.

A Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from Onslow to Carnarvon.  The Watch includes Exmouth and Coral Bay.

Tropical Cyclone Narelle started to intensify again on Tuesday as it moved north of the coast of Western Australia.  The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the center of Narelle’s circulation.  A new eye appeared to be forming at the center of Tropical Cyclone Narelle.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Narelle’s circulation.  Storms near the center of Narelle began to generate more upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.  The removal of more mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The distribution of wind speeds around Tropical Cyclone Narelle became more symmetrical as more of the circulation moved back over water.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 115 miles (185 km) from the center of Narelle’s circulation.

ropical Cyclone Narelle will move into an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Narelle will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move under the northern part of an upper level ridge that is over Western Australia.  The upper level ridge will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of Narelle’s circulation.  Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear, but the wind shear will not be enough to prevent intensification.  Tropical Cyclone Narelle will intensify during the next 24 hours.  Narelle is likely to strengthen back to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon on Wednesday.  Tropical Cyclone Narelle could intensify to the equivalent of a major hurricane later this week.

Tropical Cyclone Narelle will move around the northern side of a high pressure system that is over Australia.  The high pressure system will steer Narelle toward the west-southwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Narelle will move parellel to the coast of Western Australia during the next day or so.  Narelle will move toward the south on Thursday when it moves around the western end of the high pressure system.

Bands in the southern part of Tropical Cyclone Narelle will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to the northern coast of Western Australia.  Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

 

Tropical Cyclone Narelle Moves Back Over Water

Tropical Cyclone Narelle moved back over water near the coast of Western Australia on Monday evening.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone Narelle was located at latitude 16.0°S and longitude 124.3°E which put the center about 225 miles (360 km) northwest of Broome, Australia.  Narelle was moving toward the west-southwest at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 996 mb.

The Australian Bureau of Meteorology issued a Warning that is in effect for the portion of the coast from Beagle Bay to Kuri Bay.  Another Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from De Grey to Wallal Downs.

A Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from Exmouth to De Grey.  The Watch includes Onslow, Karratha, and Port Hedland.

The center of Tropical Cyclone Narelle moved back over water near Kuri Bay on Monday evening.  Thunderstorms were developing in bands in the western side of Narelle’s circulation that were already over water.  Bands in the southern and eastern parts of Tropical Cyclone Narelle were still over Western Australia.  Those bands consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.

The distribution of winds speeds in Tropical Cyclone Narelle was also being affected by the fact that about half of Narelle’s circulation was still over Western Australia.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 115 miles (185 km) in the northern side of Tropical Cyclone Narelle.  The winds in the southern side of Narelle’s circulation were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Cyclone Narelle will move into an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Narelle will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C.  It will move under the northern part of an upper level ridge that is over Western Australia.  The upper level ridge will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of Narelle’s circulation.  Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear, but the wind shear will not be enough to prevent intensification.  Tropical Cyclone Narelle will intensify during the next 24 hours.  Narelle is likely to strengthen back to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon later this week.

Tropical Cyclone Narelle will move around the northern side of a high pressure system that is over Australia.  The high pressure system will steer Narelle toward the west-southwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Narelle will move over water north of the coast of Western Australia.

Tropical Cyclone Narelle will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to places near the northern coast of Western Australia.  Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Flood Watches are in effect for the North Kimberley Rivers, the West Kimberley Rivers and the East Kimberley Rivers.

Tropical Cyclone Mitchell Passes Near Exmouth

Tropical Cyclone Mitchell was passing near Exmouth in Western Australia on Sunday morning.  At 10:00 a.m. EST on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone Mitchell was located at latitude 22.0°S and longitude 113.8°E which put the center about 25 miles (40 km) north-northwest of Exmouth, Australia.  Mitchell was moving toward the west-southwest at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 70 m.p.h. (110 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 983 mb.

The Australian Bureau of Meteorology issued a Warning that was in effect for the portion of the coast from Onslow to Overlander Roadhouse.  The Warning included Exmouth, Carnarvon, and Denham.  The Warning extended inland to include Gascoyne Junction.

Even though the center of Tropical Cyclone Mitchell remained offshore, Mitchell was producing strong winds along the coast of Western Australia.  A weather station at the Onslow airport measured a sustained wind speed of 59 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and a wind gust of 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h).

Tropical Cyclone Mitchell weakened on Saturday night even though the center of Mitchell remained over water.  Southeasterly winds blowing into the southwestern part of Mitchell’s circulation appeared to pull drier air from the interior of Western Australia into the western side of the circulation.  The drier air caused many of the thunderstorms in the southwestern part of Tropical Cyclone Mitchell to weaken.  Thunderstorms were still occurring in bands in the other parts of Mitchell’s circulation.  Since there were fewer thunderstorms near the center of Mitchell, those thunderstorms generated less upper level divergence.  Less upper level divergence meant that the thunderstorms pumped less mass away from the tropical cyclone.  The removal of less mass caused the surface pressure to increase.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Mitchell continued to be small.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 90 miles (145 km) from the center of Mitchell’s circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Mitchell will move through an environment that will be unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Mitchell will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  However, it will move under the western end of an upper level ridge that is over Australia.  The upper level ridge will produce northwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Mitchell’s circulation.  Those winds will cause the vertical wind shear to increase.  In addition, Tropical Cyclone Mitchell is likely to continue to pull drier air into its circulation.  The combination of more vertical wind shear and drier air will cause Tropical Cyclone Mitchell to weaken slowly during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Mitchell will move around the western end of a high pressure system that is over Australia.  The high pressure system will steer Mitchell toward the south during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, the center of Tropical Cyclone Mitchell will make landfall on the coast of Western Australia near Cape Cuvier and Carnarvon in 12 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Mitchell will bring strong winds and heavy rain parts of Western Australia near Cape Cuvier and Carnarvon.  Heavy rain is likely to cause floods in some locations.

Flood Watches are in effect for the Gascoyne River, the Ashburton River, the Fortescue River, the Greenough River, the Murchison River, the Wooramel River, the Pilbara Coastal Rivers, and the Yarra Yarra Lakes District.

Tropical Cyclone Mitchell Intensifies to Equivalent of Hurricane/Typhoon

Tropical Cyclone Mitchell intensified to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon as it moved near the coast of Western Australia on Saturday morning.  At 10:00 a.m. EST on Saturday the center of Tropical Cyclone Mitchell was located at latitude 20.3°S and longitude 116.4°E which put the center about 50 miles (80 km) north-northwest of Karratha, Australia.  Mitchell was moving toward the southwest at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 105 m.p.h. (165 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 973 mb.

The Australian Bureau of Meteorology issued a Warning that was in effect for the portion of the coast of Western Australia from Whim Creek to Coral Bay.  The Warning included Karratha, Dampier, Onslow, and Exmouth.

A Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast of Western Australia from Coral Bay to Carnarvon.

Tropical Cyclone Mitchell intensified to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon on Saturday morning.  The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the center of Michell’s circulation.  An eye appeared to be forming at the center of Tropical Cyclone Mitchell.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Mitchell’s circulation.  Storms near the center of Mitchell generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The size of the circulation around Tropical Cyclone Mitchell increased when Mitchell intensified.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 40 miles (65 km) from the center of Mitchell’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 100 miles (175 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Mitchell.

Tropical Cyclone Mitchell will move through an environment very favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Mitchell will then move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Cyclone Mitchell will intensify during the next 24 hours. .

Tropical Cyclone Mitchell will move around the northwestern part of a high pressure system that is over Australia.  The high pressure system will steer Mitchell toward the southwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Mitchell will make landfall in the Exmouth Gulf in less than 24 hours.

The center of Tropical Cyclone Mitchell is likely to make landfall on the coast of Western Australia between Onslow and Exmouth.  Mitchell will bring strong winds and heavy rain to locations near the Exmouth Gulf.  Heavy rain is likely to cause floods in some locations.

Flood Watches are in effect for the Gascoyne River, the Ashburton River, the Fortescue River, the Fitzroy River, the Greenough River, the Murchison River, the Wooramel River, the Pilbara Coastal Rivers, and the Yarra Yarra Lakes District.

Tropical Cyclone Mitchell Strengthens Near Western Australia

Tropical Cyclone Mitchell strengthened near the coast of Western Australia on Friday morning.  At 10:00 a.m. EST on Friday the center of Tropical Cyclone Mitchell was located at latitude 18.7°S and longitude 119.4°E which put the center about 145 miles (235 km) north-northeast of Port Hedland, Australia.  Mitchell was moving toward the west-southwest at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 994 mb.

The Australian Bureau of Meteorology issued a Warning that was in effect for the portion of the coast from De Grey to Mardie.  The Warning included Port Hedland, Karratha, and Dampier.

A Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Onslow to Coral Bay.  The Watch included Exmouth.

A Tropical Low near the coast of Western Australia strengthened on Friday morning and the Australian Bureau of Meteorology designated it as Tropical Cyclone Mitchell.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Mitchell was strengthening on Friday morning.  New thunderstorms continued to develop near the center of Mitchell’s circulation.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were also revolving around the center of Tropical Cyclone Mitchell.  Storms near the center of Mitchell generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Mitchell was small.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 65 miles (105 km) from the center of Mitchell’s circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Mitchell will move through an environment very favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Mitchell will then move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Cyclone Mitchell will intensify during the next 24 hours.  Mitchell could intensify rapidly to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon.

Tropical Cyclone Mitchell will move around the northwestern part of a high pressure system that is over Australia.  The high pressure system will steer Mitchell toward the west-southwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone will be north of Dampier in 24 hours.

The strongest winds in Tropical Cyclone Mitchell will remain north of the coast of Western Australia on Friday.  Bands in the southern half of Mitchell’s circulation could bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to the coast of Western Australia.  Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Flood Watches are in effect for the Gascoyne River, the Ashburton River, the Fortescue River, the Fitzroy River, and the Pilbara Coastal Rivers.

Tropical Cyclone Courtney Develops Northwest of Australia

Tropical Cyclone Courtney developed over the South Indian Ocean northwest of Australia on Tuesday.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Courtney was located at latitude 17.4°S and longitude 106.3°E which put the center about 585 miles (945 km) northwest of Exmouth, Australia.  Courtney was moving toward the west-southwest at 17 m.p.h. (28 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 993 mb.

A low pressure system over the South Indian Ocean northwest of Australia strengthened on Tuesday and the Australian Bureau of Meteorology designated the system as Tropical Cyclone Courtney.  More thunderstorms formed near the center of Courtney’s circulation.  More thunderstorms also developed in bands revolving around the center of Tropical Cyclone Courtney.  Storms near the center of Courtney generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Courtney was small.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 85 miles (135 km) from the center of Courtney’s circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Courtney will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Courtney will move over water where where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C.  It will move under the northern part of an upper level ridge that is west of Australia.  The upper level ridge will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of Courtney’s circulation.  Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear.  The moderate vertical wind shear will inhibit intensification, but the wind shear may not be enough to prevent intensification.  Tropical Cyclone Courtney is likely to intensify during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Courtney will move around the northern side of a high pressure system that is over the South Indian Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Courtney toward the west during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Courtney will pass far to the south of Christmas Islands.  Courtney will pass south of the Cocos Islands later this week.

Tropical Cyclone Bianca Strengthens to Equivalent of Major Hurricane

Tropical Cyclone Bianca strengthened to the equivalent of a major hurricane on Monday night.  At 4:00 a.m. EST on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Bianca was located at latitude 22.3°S and longitude 102.0°E which put the center about 765 miles (1235 km) west of the Exmouth, Australia.  Bianca was moving toward the south-southwest at 11 m.p.h. (17 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 115 m.p.h. (185 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 145 m.p.h. (235 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 962 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Bianca strengthened to the equivalent of a major hurricane over the South Indian Ocean west of Australia on Monday night.  A circular eye with a diameter of 20 miles (32 km) was at the center of Bianca’s circulation.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms revolved around the center of Bianca’s circulation.  Storms near the center of Bianca generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Bianca was small.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 25 miles (40 km) from the center of Bianca’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 100 miles (160 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Bianca.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Bianca was 20.6.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 9.3 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 29.9.

Tropical Cyclone Bianca will move into an environment that will become unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Bianca will move over water where where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 26°C.  It will move under the eastern side of an upper level trough over the South Indian Ocean.  The upper level trough will produce northwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Bianca’s circulation.  Those winds will cause the vertical wind shear to increase.  Tropical Cyclone Bianca will weaken when the vertical wind shear increases.

Tropical Cyclone Bianca will move around the western part of a high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Bianca toward the south during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Bianca will move parallel to the coast of Western Australia.

Tropical Cyclone Alfred Forms over the Coral Sea

Tropical Cyclone Alfred formed over the Coral Sea on Sunday.  At 4:00 a.m. EST on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone Alfred was located at latitude 14.3°S and longitude 153.7°E which put the center about 560 miles (900 km) east-northeast of Cairns, Australia.  Alfred was moving toward the east at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 990 mb.

A low pressure system over the Coral Sea strengthened on Sunday and the Australian Bureau of Meteorology designated the system as Tropical Cyclone Alfred.  The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Alfred exhibited more organization on Sunday.  More thunderstorms formed near the center of Alfred’s circulation.  More thunderstorms also developed in bands revolving around the center of Tropical Cyclone Alfred.  Storms near the center of Alfred generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Alfred was fairly large.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 180 miles (290 km) from the center of Alfred’s circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Alfred will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Alfred will move over water where where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move under the middle of an upper level ridge over the Coral Sea.  The upper level winds are weak near the middle of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Cyclone Alfred will intensify during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Alfred will move around the southern side of a high pressure system that is near the Equator.  The high pressure system will steer Alfred toward the east during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Alfred will move farther away from Australia.  Alfred is like to start to move toward the south early next week.

Elsewhere, Tropical Cyclone Bianca formed over the South Indian Ocean northwest of Australia.  At 4:00 a.m. EST on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone Bianca was located at latitude 17.0°S and longitude 106.9°E which put the center about 590 miles (950 km) northwest of Exmouth, Australia.  Bianca was moving toward the west-southwest at 15 m.p.h. (24 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 998 mb.