Tag Archives: Coral Sea

Tropical Cyclone Koji Nears Queensland

Tropical Cyclone Koji was nearing the coast of Queensland on Saturday morning.  At 7:00 a.m. EST on Saturday the center of the Tropical Cyclone Koji was located at latitude 17.9°S and longitude 147.9°E which put the center about 115 miles (185 km) northeast of Townsville, Australia.  Kohi was moving toward the south at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 988 mb.

The Australian Bureau of Meteorology issued a Warning that was in effect for the portion of the coast of Queensland from Lucinda to Mackay.  The Warning included Townsville, Palm Island, Bowen, Proserpine, and the Whitsunday Islands.

Tropical Cyclone Koji was strengthening as it neared the coast of Queensland on Saturday morning.  More thunderstorms formed near the center of Koji’s circulation.  More thunderstorms also developed in bands revolving around the center of Tropical Cyclone Koji.  Storms near the center generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Koji was very large.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 220 miles (350 km) from the center of Koji’s circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Koji will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 12 hours.  Koji will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Cyclone Koji is likely to intensify during the next 12 hours.  Koji could strengthen to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon.

Tropical Cyclone Koji will move around the western side of a high pressure system that is east of Australia.  The high pressure system will steer the Koji toward the south-southwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, the  center of Tropical Cyclone Koji will reach the coast of Queensland near Ayr in 12 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Koji will bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to the portion of the coast between Lucinda and Mackay.  Heavy rain could cause floods in some locations.

Major Flood Warnings are in effect for the Herbert River, the Pioneer River, the Flinders River, the Concurry Rivers, and the Haughton River Catchment.  Moderate Flood Warnings are in effect for the Bohle River, the Don River, the Norman River, the Thompson River, and the Tully River.  Flood Warnings are in effect for the Gilbert River, the Black River and Bluewater Creek.  Flood Watches are in effect for the Coastal Rivers between Cooktown and Rockhampton, and for the Cape York Peninsula.

Tropical Cyclone Koji could also cause a storm surge of up to 7 feet (2 meters) along the coast of Queensland.

Tropical Low Prompts Warning for Queensland

A Tropical Low over the Coral Sea prompted the Australian Bureau of Meteorology to issue a Warning for the coast of Queensland on Thursday night.  At 7:00 a.m. EST on Friday the center of the Tropical Low was located at latitude 14.9°S and longitude 148.1°E which put the center about 210 miles (335 km) northeast of the Cairns, Australia.  The Tropical Low was moving toward the south-southwest at 4 m.p.h. (6 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 995 mb.

The Australian Bureau of Meteorology issued a Warning for the portion of the coast of Queensland from Port Douglas to Airlie Beach.  The Warning includes Cairns, Innisfail, Townsville and Bowen.

A low pressure system over the Coral Sea was strengthening on Friday morning.  The Australian Bureau of Meteorology was classifying the system as a Tropical Low.  The U.S. Joint Typhoon Warning Center was designating the system as Invest 92P.

A Tropical Low over the Coral Sea was strengthening on Friday morning.  Thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the northwestern part of the Tropical Low.  Another cluster of thunderstorms was located southeast of the center of circulation.  Storms near the center began to generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the Tropical Low.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The strongest winds were occurring in the thunderstorms northwest and southeast of the center of the Tropical Low.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 140 miles (225 km) from the center of circulation.

The Tropical Low will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  The Tropical Low will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  The Tropical Low is very likely to intensify to a named tropical cyclone during the next 24 hours.

The Tropical Low will move around the western side of a high pressure system that is east of Australia.  The high pressure system will steer the Tropical Low toward the south-southwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, the Tropical Low will approach the coast of Queensland near Townsville in 24 hours.

The Tropical Low is likely to be the equivalent of a tropical storm when it approaches the coast.  It will bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to the portion of the coast between Port Douglas and Airlie Beach.  Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Tropical Cyclone Alfred Weakens

Tropical Cyclone Alfred weakened over the Coral Sea east of Australia on Saturday.  At 10:00 p.m. EST on Saturday the center of Tropical Cyclone Alfred was located at latitude 23.6°S and longitude 155.0°E which put the center about 330 miles (530 km) north-northeast of Brisbane, Australia.  Alfred was moving toward the south at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 984 mb.

An upper level trough over eastern Australia produced northwesterly winds that blew across the top of Tropical Cyclone Alfred on Saturday.  Those winds blew the tops off of the thunderstorms in the northern half of Alfred’s circulation.  Thunderstorms were still occurring in bands in the southern half of Tropical Cyclone Alfred.  Bands in the northern part of Alfred’s circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.

Even though Tropical Cyclone Alfred weakened substantially on Saturday, the circulation around Alfred was still large.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 195 miles (315 km) from the center of Alfred’s circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Alfred will move through an environment that will be unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Alfred will move over water where where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C.  However, the upper level trough over eastern Australia will continue to produce northwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Alfred’s circulation.  Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear.  The wind shear will inhibit intensification.  Tropical Cyclone Alfred could be close to being in equilibrium with its surrounding environment.  Tropical Cyclone Alfred could maintain its intensity during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Alfred will move around the western side of a high pressure system that is east of the Coral Sea.  The high pressure system will steer Alfred toward the south during the next 24 hours.  Alfred could start to move toward the west on Monday.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Alfred could move toward the coast of southern Queensland early next week.

Tropical Cyclone Alfred Continues to Strengthen

Tropical Cyclone Alfred continued to strengthen over the Coral Sea on Wednesday.  At 10:00 p.m. EST on Wednesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Alfred was located at latitude 17.0°S and longitude 155.5°E which put the center about 660 miles (1050 km) north-northeast of Brisbane, Australia.  Alfred was moving toward the south at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 110 m.p.h. (175 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 130 m.p.h. (210 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 962 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Alfred continued to strengthen over the Coral Sea on Wednesday.  A very small circular eye was visible at the center of Alfred’s circulation on satellite images.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Tropical Cyclone Alfred.  Storms near the core generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The size of the circulation around Tropical Cyclone Alfred increased when Alfred strengthened on Wednesday.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 60 miles (95 km) from the center of Alfred’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 200 miles (325 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Alfred.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Alfred is 19.2.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 22.7 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 41.9.  Tropical Cyclone Alfred is similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Gustav when Gustav hit Louisiana in 2008.

Tropical Cyclone Alfred will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Alfred will move over water where where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move under the middle of an upper level ridge over the Coral Sea.  The winds are weak near the middle of the upper level ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Cyclone Alfred is likely to intensify during the next 24 hours unless an eyewall replacement cycle occurs.  If the inner end of a rainband wraps around the existing eye and eyewall, then concentric eyewalls will form.  If concentric eyewalls form, then an eyewall replacement cycle will cause Alfred to weaken.

Tropical Cyclone Alfred will move around the western side of a high pressure system that is over Vanuatu.  The high pressure system will steer Alfred toward the south during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Alfred will move parallel to the east coast of Australia.  Alfred could move closer to the coast of Queensland by the weekend.

Tropical Cyclone Alfred Meanders over the Coral Sea

Tropical Cyclone Alfred meandered over the Coral Sea on Tuesday.  At 10:00 p.m. EST on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Alfred was located at latitude 15.0°S and longitude 155.0°E which put the center about 850 miles (1370 km) north of Brisbane, Australia.  Alfred was moving toward the south at 3 m.p.h. (5 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 105 m.p.h. (165 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 975 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Alfred continued to intensify gradually on Tuesday.  The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the center of Alfred’s circulation.  An eye appeared to be forming at the center of Tropical Cyclone Alfred.  A ring of thunderstorms surrounded the developing eye and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Alfred’s circulation.  Storms near the core of Alfred generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Alfred was small. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 15 miles (25 km) in the southern side of Alfred’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 80 miles (130 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Alfred.

Tropical Cyclone Alfred will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Alfred will move over water where where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move under the middle of an upper level ridge over the Coral Sea.  The winds are weak near the middle of the upper level ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.   Tropical Cyclone Alfred is likely to intensify during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Alfred will move around the western side of a high pressure system that is over Vanuatu.  The high pressure system will steer Alfred slowly toward the south during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Alfred will move parallel to the east coast of Australia.  Alfred could move closer to the coast of Queensland by the weekend.

Tropical Cyclone Alfred Spins over the Coral Sea

Tropical Cyclone Alfred continued to spin over the Coral Sea on Monday.  At 10:00 p.m. EST on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone Alfred was located at latitude 14.6°S and longitude 154.5°E which put the center about 670 miles (1085 km) north of Brisbane, Australia.  Alfred was moving toward the south at 4 m.p.h. (6 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 984 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Alfred strengthened to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon as it spun over the Coral Sea on Monday.  The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the center of Alfred’s circulation.  A small circular eye was evident at the center of Tropical Cyclone Alfred on visible satellite images.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Tropical Cyclone Alfred.  Storms near the center of Alfred generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Alfred was small.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 15 miles (25 km) in the southern side of Alfred’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 60 miles (95 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Alfred.

Tropical Cyclone Alfred will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Alfred will move over water where where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move under the western part of an upper level ridge over the Coral Sea.  The upper level ridge will produce northeasterly winds that will blow toward the top of Alfred’s circulation.  Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear, but the wind shear will not be enough to prevent intensification.  Tropical Cyclone Alfred is likely to intensify during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Alfred will move around the western side of a high pressure system that is over Vanuatu.  The high pressure system will steer Alfred slowly toward the south during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Alfred will move parallel to the east coast of Australia.  Alfred could move closer to the coast of Queensland by the end of the week.

Tropical Cyclone Alfred Forms over the Coral Sea

Tropical Cyclone Alfred formed over the Coral Sea on Sunday.  At 4:00 a.m. EST on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone Alfred was located at latitude 14.3°S and longitude 153.7°E which put the center about 560 miles (900 km) east-northeast of Cairns, Australia.  Alfred was moving toward the east at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 990 mb.

A low pressure system over the Coral Sea strengthened on Sunday and the Australian Bureau of Meteorology designated the system as Tropical Cyclone Alfred.  The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Alfred exhibited more organization on Sunday.  More thunderstorms formed near the center of Alfred’s circulation.  More thunderstorms also developed in bands revolving around the center of Tropical Cyclone Alfred.  Storms near the center of Alfred generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Alfred was fairly large.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 180 miles (290 km) from the center of Alfred’s circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Alfred will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Alfred will move over water where where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move under the middle of an upper level ridge over the Coral Sea.  The upper level winds are weak near the middle of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Cyclone Alfred will intensify during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Alfred will move around the southern side of a high pressure system that is near the Equator.  The high pressure system will steer Alfred toward the east during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Alfred will move farther away from Australia.  Alfred is like to start to move toward the south early next week.

Elsewhere, Tropical Cyclone Bianca formed over the South Indian Ocean northwest of Australia.  At 4:00 a.m. EST on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone Bianca was located at latitude 17.0°S and longitude 106.9°E which put the center about 590 miles (950 km) northwest of Exmouth, Australia.  Bianca was moving toward the west-southwest at 15 m.p.h. (24 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 998 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Paul Weakens

Tropical Cyclone Paul weakened over the Coral Sea on Thursday night. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Cyclone Paul was located at latitude 15.2°S and longitude 156.5°E which put it about 325 miles (525 km) southeast of the Tagula Island. Paul was moving toward the east at 4 m.p.h. (6 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1001 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Paul strengthened earlier on Thursday when it was in a more favorable environment. Then an upper level trough near the east coast of Australia began to produce strong west-northwesterly winds that blew across the top of Paul’s circulation. Those winds caused the vertical wind shear to increase. The stronger vertical wind shear blew the tops off of many of the thunderstorms in Tropical Cyclone Paul. A few thunderstorms were still occurring in bands in the southeastern part of Paul’s circulation. Bands in the other parts of Tropical Cyclone Paul consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 40 miles (65 km) from the center of Paul.

Tropical Cyclone Paul will move through an environment unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Paul will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C. However, the upper level trough near eastern Australia will continue to produce strong west-northwesterly winds that will blow across the top of Paul’s circulation. Those winds will cause strong vertical wind shear. The strong wind shear will cause Paul to continue to weaken.

Tropical Cyclone Paul will be steered by the winds in the lower levels of the atmosphere because of the strong vertical wind shear. Paul will move around the northern side of high pressure system over the Southwest Pacific Ocean and eastern Australia. The high pressure system will steer Paul toward the west-northwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Paul will weaken over the Coral Sea.

Tropical Cyclone Paul Forms over Coral Sea

Tropical Cyclone Paul formed over the Coral Sea on Wednesday. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Paul was located at latitude 13.8°S and longitude 154.3°E which put it about 150 miles (240 km) south-southeast of the Tagula Island. Paul was moving toward the south-southeast at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1000 mb.

A low pressure system over the Coral Sea southeast of New Guinea strengthened on Wednesday and the Australian Bureau of Meteorology designated the system as Tropical Cyclone Paul. More thunderstorms formed near the center of Tropical Cyclone Paul. The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the northern side of the center of Paul’s circulation. Storms near the center generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Tropical Cyclone Paul. The circulation around Paul was small. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 30 miles (50 km) from the center of Paul’s circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Paul will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Paul will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C. An upper level trough over eastern Australia will produce west-northwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Paul’s circulation. Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear. The wind shear will inhibit intensification. Tropical Cyclone Paul could intensify during the next 24 hours despite the wind shear. The vertical wind shear is forecast to increase on Friday. Paul will start to weaken when the wind shear increases.

Tropical Cyclone Paul will be in an area where the steering winds are weak during the next 24 hours. Tropical Cyclone Paul will not move much during the next day or so. A high pressure system over the Southwest Pacific Ocean and eastern Australia is likely to start to steer Paul toward the west on Friday. On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Paul will eventually start to move toward the northern Cape York Peninsula.

Elsewhere, a weakening Tropical Cyclone Olga was passing near Exmouth, Australia. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Olga was located at latitude 21.4°S and longitude 114.3°E which put it about 85 miles (135 km) north-northeast of the Exmouth, Australia. Olga was moving toward the southwest at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1007 mb. A weather station on Barrow Island reported a sustained wind speed of 37 m.p.h. (59 km/h) and a wind gust of 45 m.p.h. (72 km/h).

Tropical Cyclone Jasper Turns Toward Australia

Tropical Cyclone Jasper turned toward Australia on Friday. At 4:00 p.m. EST on Friday the center of Tropical Cyclone Jasper was located at latitude 15.4°S and longitude 156.3°E which put it about 710 miles (1145 km) east of Cairns, Australia. Jasper was moving toward the south-southwest at 4 m.p.h. (6 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 110 m.p.h. (175 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 130 m.p.h. (210 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 960 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Jasper started to weaken on Friday. An upper level trough over the western part of the Coral Sea produced southwesterly winds that blew toward the top of Jasper’s circulation. Those winds caused moderate vertical wind shear. The vertical wind shear inhibited the upper level divergence toward the western side of Tropical Cyclone Jasper. The reduced upper level divergence caused the surface pressure to increase. The vertical wind shear also disrupted the inner core of Jasper’s circulation. The eyewall collapsed and an eye was no longer visible on satellite images.

Tropical Cyclone Jasper still had a large circulation despite weakening on Friday. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 65 miles (105 km) from the center of Jasper’s circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 180 miles (290 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Jasper was 19.2. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 21.3 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 40.5. Tropical Cyclone Jasper was similar in intensity to Hurricane Gustave when Gustav hit Louisiana in 2008. Jasper was not quite as big as Gustav was.

Tropical Cyclone Jasper will move through an environment unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Jasper will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C. However, the upper level trough over the western part of the Coral Sea will continue to cause moderate vertical wind shear. The moderate vertical wind shear is likely to cause Tropical Cyclone Jasper to weaken during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Jasper will move around the northern part of a high pressure system over the South Pacific Ocean east of Australia. The high pressure system will steer Jasper toward the southwest during the next 24 hours. The high pressure system will steer Jasper toward the west during the latter part of the weekend and the beginning of next week. On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Jasper will approach the north coast of Queensland early next week.