Tropical Cyclone Alfred continued to spin over the Coral Sea on Monday.  At 10:00 p.m. EST on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone Alfred was located at latitude 14.6°S and longitude 154.5°E which put the center about 670 miles (1085 km) north of Brisbane, Australia.  Alfred was moving toward the south at 4 m.p.h. (6 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 984 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Alfred strengthened to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon as it spun over the Coral Sea on Monday.  The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the center of Alfred’s circulation.  A small circular eye was evident at the center of Tropical Cyclone Alfred on visible satellite images.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Tropical Cyclone Alfred.  Storms near the center of Alfred generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Alfred was small.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 15 miles (25 km) in the southern side of Alfred’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 60 miles (95 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Alfred.

Tropical Cyclone Alfred will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Alfred will move over water where where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move under the western part of an upper level ridge over the Coral Sea.  The upper level ridge will produce northeasterly winds that will blow toward the top of Alfred’s circulation.  Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear, but the wind shear will not be enough to prevent intensification.  Tropical Cyclone Alfred is likely to intensify during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Alfred will move around the western side of a high pressure system that is over Vanuatu.  The high pressure system will steer Alfred slowly toward the south during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Alfred will move parallel to the east coast of Australia.  Alfred could move closer to the coast of Queensland by the end of the week.