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Tropical Cyclone Horacio Continues to Weaken

Tropical Cyclone Horacio continued to weaken as it moved over the South Indian Ocean on Wednesday.  At 4:00 p.m. EST on Wednesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Horacio was located at latitude 30.9°S and longitude 68.1°E which put the center about 815 miles (1315 km) south-southeast of Port Mathurin, Rodrigues.  Horacio was moving toward the south-southeast at 17 m.p.h. (28 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 981 mb.

An upper level trough that was southeast of Madagascar was producing strong northwesterly winds that were blowing across the top of Tropical Cyclone Horacio.  Those winds were causing strong vertical wind shear.  The strong northwesterly winds were also blowing the top half of Horacio’s circulation to the southeast of the low level center of Horacio.  The strong winds blew the tops off of thunderstorms near the center of Tropical Cyclone Horacio.  Bands near the center and in the northwestern half of Horacio’s circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  There will some thunderstorms in the southeastern part of Tropical Cyclone Horacio.

The distribution of wind speeds near the surface in Tropical Cyclone Horacio were still relatively symmetrical.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 45 miles (75 km) from the center of Horacio’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 105 miles (165 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Horacio.

Tropical Cyclone Horacio will continue to move through an environment that will be unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Horacio will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 23°C.  The upper level trough that is southeast of Madagascar will continue to cause strong vertical wind shear.  Tropical Cyclone Horacio will continue to weaken during the next 24 hours because of the colder water and the strong vertical wind shear.

Since strong vertical wind shear is blowing the top off of Tropical Cyclone Horacio, Horacio will be steered by weather systems in the lower atmosphere.  Horacio will move around the western end of a high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Horacio toward the south during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Horacio will continue to move farther away from Rodrigues.

Tropical Cyclone Horacio Weakens

Tropical Cyclone Horacio weakened on Tuesday as it moved over the South Indian Ocean.  At 4:00 p.m. EST on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Horacio was located at latitude 25.6°S and longitude 65.2°E which put the center about 415 miles (665 km) south-southeast of Port Mathurin, Rodrigues.  Horacio was moving toward the south-southeast at 15 m.p.h. (24 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 110 m.p.h. (175 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 130 m.p.h. (210 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 960 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Horacio weakened on Tuesday.  An upper level trough that was southeast of Madagascar was producing northwesterly winds that were blowing toward the top of Horacio’s circulation.  Those winds were causing moderate vertical wind shear.  The vertical wind shear caused Tropical Cyclone Horacio to weaken.

The eye was no longer visible on satellite images of Tropical Cyclone Horacio.  Thunderstorms were still occurring in bands revolving around the center of Horacio’s circulation.  However, those thunderstorms were not rising as high into the atmosphere.  Thunderstorms near the center of Horacio generated less upper level divergence.  The removal of mass in the upper levels was less than the convergence of mass in the lower levels of the atmosphere.  So, the surface pressure increased on Tuesday.

Even though Tropical Cyclone Horacio was weakening, the distribution of wind speeds was still fairly symmetrical.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 45 miles (75 km) from the center of Horacio’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 100 miles (160 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Horacio.

Tropical Cyclone Horacio will move through an environment that will be unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Horacio will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 26°C.  The upper level trough that is southeast of Madagascar will continue to cause moderate vertical wind shear.   Tropical Cyclone Horacio will continue to weaken on Wednesday because of the moderate vertical wind shear.

The upper level trough that is southeast of Madagascar will steer Tropical Cyclone Horacio toward the south-southeast during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Horacio will continue to move farther away from Rodrigues.

Tropical Cyclone Horacio Rapidly Intensifies to Equivalent of Cat. 5 Hurricane

Tropical Cyclone Horacio rapidly intensified to the equivalent of a Category 5  hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale as it moved over the South Indian Ocean southeast of Rodrigues on Monday.  At 4:00 p.m. EST on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone Horacio was located at latitude 21.2°S and longitude 65.0°E which put the center about 145 miles (235 km) southeast of Port Mathurin, Rodrigues.  Horacio was moving toward the southwest at 13 m.p.h. (21 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 160 m.p.h. (260 km/h) ‘and there were wind gusts to 195 m.p.h. (3150 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 920 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Horacio rapidly intensified to the equivalent of a Category 5 hurricane on Sunday night.  A circular eye with a diameter of 20 miles (32 km) was at the center of Tropical Cyclone Horacio.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Horacio’s circulation.  Storms near the center of Horacio generated strong upper level divergence that pumped large quantities of mass away from the tropical cyclone.  The removal of large amounts of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease rapidly.

The size of the circulation around Tropical Cyclone Horacio increased as Horacio rapidly intensified.   Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 60 miles (95 km) from the center of Horacio’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 125 miles (200 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Horacio.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Horacio was 35.0.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 16.7 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 51.7. Tropical Cyclone Horacio was similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Michael when Michael hit Northwest Florida in 2018.

Tropical Cyclone Horacio will move through an environment that will become less favorable for an intense tropical cyclone during the next 24 hours.  Horacio will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 27°C.  It will move under the eastern part of an upper level trough that is southeast of Madagascar.  The upper level trough will produce northwesterly winds are that will blow toward the top of Horacio’s circulation.  Those winds will cause the will  vertical wind shear to increase.  Tropical Cyclone Horacio will start to weaken when the vertical wind shear increases.

Tropical Cyclone Horacio will move around the western part of a high pressure system that is over the South Indian Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Horacio toward the south during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Horacio will continue to move farther away from Rodrigues.

Tropical Cyclone Horacio Rapidly Intensifies to Equivalent of a Major Hurricane

Tropical Cyclone Horacio rapidly intensified to the equivalent of a major hurricane as it moved over the South Indian Ocean east of Rodrigues on Sunday night.  At 7:00 a.m. EST on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone Horacio was located at latitude 19.8°S and longitude 65.8°E which put the center about 160 miles (260 km) east of Port Mathurin, Rodrigues.  Horacio was moving toward the southwest at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 125 m.p.h. (200 km/h) ‘and there were wind gusts to 150 m.p.h. (240 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 948 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Horacio rapidly intensified to the equivalent of a major hurricane on Sunday night.  The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the center of Horacio’s circulation.  A circular eye with a diameter of 20 miles (32 km) formed at the center of Tropical Cyclone Horacio.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Horacio’s circulation.  Storms near the center of Horacio generated strong upper level divergence that pumped large quantities of mass away from the tropical cyclone.  The removal of large amounts of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease rapidly.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Horacio was relatively symmetrical.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 45 miles (75 km) from the center of Horacio’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 105 miles (165 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Horacio.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Horacio was 23.6.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 13.2 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 36.8.  Tropical Cyclone Horacio was similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Harvey when Harvey hit Texas in 2017.

Tropical Cyclone Horacio will move through an environment that will be favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Horacio will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C.  It will move under the middle of an upper level ridge that is over the South Indian Ocean.  The upper level winds are weak in the middle of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Cyclone Horacio will intensify during the next 24 hours. Horacio could continue to intensify rapidly during the next few hours.

Tropical Cyclone Horacio will move around the western part of a high pressure system that is over the South Indian Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Horacio toward the south during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Horacio will start to move farther away from Rodrigues.

Tropical Cyclone Horacio Moves Toward Rodrigues

Tropical Cyclone Horacio moved over the South Indian Ocean toward Rodrigues on Sunday.  At 4:00 p.m. EST on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone Horacio was located at latitude 18.1°S and longitude 67.8°E which put the center about 320 miles (515 km) east-northeast of Port Mathurin, Rodrigues.  Horacio was moving toward the west-southwest at 11 m.p.h. (17 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 989 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Horacio strengthened on Sunday.  The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the northern side of the center of Horatio’s circulation.  More thunderstorms formed in bands revolving around the center of Tropical Cyclone Horacio.  Storms near the center of Horacio generated upper level divergence that pumped more mass away from the tropical cyclone.  The removal of more mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The distribution of wind speeds in Tropical Cyclone Horacio became more symmetrical when Horacio strengthened on Sunday.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 90 miles (145 km) from the center of Horacio’s circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Horacio will move through an environment that will be favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Horacio will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C.  It will move under the northern part of an upper level ridge that is over the South Indian Ocean.  The upper level ridge will continue to produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of Horacio’s circulation.  Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear.  The vertical wind shear will inhibit intensification, but the wind shear will not be enough to prevent intensification.  Tropical Cyclone Horacio will intensify during the next 24 hours. Horacio could intensify rapidly at times.  Tropical Cyclone Horacio is likely to strengthen to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon by Monday.

Tropical Cyclone Horacio will move around the northwestern part of a high pressure system that is over the South Indian Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Horacio toward the southwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Horacio will pass east of Rodrigues in 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Horacio Passes South of Diego Garcia

Tropical Cyclone Horacio passed south of Diego Garcia as it moved over the South Indian Ocean on Saturday.  At 4:00 p.m. EST on Saturday the center of Tropical Cyclone Horacio was located at latitude 17.0°S and longitude 71.3°E which put the center about 675 miles (1095 km) south of Diego Garcia.  Horacio was moving toward the west at 13 m.p.h. (21 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 998 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Horacio struggled to intensify on Saturday.  Horatio was under the northern side of an upper level ridge that was over the South Indian Ocean.  The upper level ridge produced easterly winds that blew toward the top of Horacio’s circulation.  Those winds caused moderate vertical wind shear.  The wind shear inhibited intensification.

The easterly winds in the upper levels and the vertical wind shear also affected the distribution of thunderstorms in Tropical Cyclone Horacio.  Thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the western and northern parts of Horacio’s circulation.  Bands in the eastern and southern sides of Tropical Cyclone Horacio consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.

The vertical wind shear also affected the distribution of wind speeds in Tropical Cyclone Horacio.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 100 miles (160 km) in the southern half of Horacio’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 60 miles (95 km) in the northern half of Tropical Cyclone Horacio.

Tropical Cyclone Horacio will move through an environment that will be somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Horacio will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C.  It will move under the northern part of an upper level ridge that is over the South Indian Ocean.  The upper level ridge will continue to produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of Horacio’s circulation.  Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear.  The moderate vertical wind shear will inhibit intensification, but it may not be enough to prevent intensification.  Tropical Cyclone Horacio is likely to intensify during the next 24 hours. Horacio is likely to strengthen to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon by Monday.

Tropical Cyclone Horacio will move around the northern part of a high pressure system that is over the South Indian Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Horatio toward the west-southwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Horacio will move closer to Rodrigues.  Horacio could approach Rodrigues in 36 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Horacio Develops South of Diego Garcia

Tropical Cyclone Horacio developed over the South Indian Ocean south of Diego Garcia on Thursday night.  At 10:00 a.m. EST on Friday the center of Tropical Cyclone Horacio was located at latitude 15.5°S and longitude 75.3°E which put the center about 610 miles (985 km) south-southeast of Diego Garcia.  Horacio was moving toward the south-southwest at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 999 mb.

A low pressure system over the South Indian Ocean south of Diego Garcia strengthened on Thursday night and Meteo France La Reunion designated the system as Tropical Cyclone Horacio.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Horacio was organizing quickly on Friday morning.  Thunderstorms were forming near the center of Horatio’s circulation.  Thunderstorms were also developing in bands revolving around the center of Tropical Cyclone Horacio.  Storms near the center of Horacio generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Horacio was fairly large.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 175 miles (280 km) from the center of Horacio’s circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Horacio will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Horacio will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C.  It will move under the northern part of an upper level ridge that is over the South Indian Ocean.  The upper level ridge will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of Horacio’s circulation.  Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear, but the wind shear will not be enough to prevent intensification.  Tropical Cyclone Horacio will intensify during the next 24 hours.  Horacio is likely to strengthen to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon during the weekend.

Tropical Cyclone Horacio will move toward the northern part of a high pressure system that is over the South Indian Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Horacio toward the west-southwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Horacio will move toward Rodrigues.  Horacio could approach Rodrigues in three days.

Tropical Cyclone Honde Lingers Near Southern Madagascar

Tropical Cyclone Honde lingered near southern Madagascar on Sunday.  At 4:00 a.m. EST on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone Honde was located at latitude 27.1°S and longitude 46.1°E which put the center about 195 miles (315 km) south of Ambovombe, Madagascar.  Honde was moving toward the southeast at 2 m.p.h. (3 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 975 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Honde was the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon as it lingered near southern Madagascar on Sunday.  A circular eye with a diameter of 20 miles (32 km) was at the center of Honde’s circulation.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Tropical Cyclone Honde.  Storms near the center of Honde generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.  The divergence of mass in the upper levels of the atmosphere was almost balanced by the inflow of mass in the lower levels of Tropical Cyclone Honde.  As a result, the surface pressure was not changing much.

The size of the circulation around Tropical Cyclone Honde was smaller on Sunday.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 40 miles (65 km) in the southern half of Honde’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 140 miles (220 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Honde.

Tropical Cyclone Honde will move through an environment that will become less favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Honde will move over water where where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 27°C.  It will move under the eastern side of an upper level trough near southern Africa.  The upper level trough will produce northwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Honde’s circulation.  Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear.  The moderate vertical wind shear will inhibit intensification.  Tropical Cyclone Honde will likely maintain its intensity during the next 24 hours.

The upper level trough near southern Africa will steer Tropical Cyclone Honde toward the southeast during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, the center of Tropical Cyclone Honde will gradually move farther away from southern Madagascar.

Bands in the northern side of Tropical Cyclone Honde will continue to bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to parts of southern Madagascar during the next 24 hours.  Additional heavy rain will likely cause flash floods in some locations.

Elsewhere over the Southwest Indian Ocean, Tropical Cyclone Garance was making a transformation to and extratropical cyclone far to the south of La Reunion.  At 4:00 a.m. EST on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone Garance was located at latitude 33.8°S and longitude 59.9°E which put the center about 925 miles (1495 km) south-southeast of St. Denis, La, Reunion.  Garance was moving toward the southeast at 25 m.p.h. (40 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 993 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Honde Brings Wind and Rain to Southern Madagascar

Tropical Cyclone Honde continued to bring wind and rain to southern Madagascar on Saturday.  At 4:00 a.m. EST on Saturday the center of Tropical Cyclone Honde was located at latitude 26.9°S and longitude 45.3°E which put the center about 120 miles (195 km) south of Tsiombe, Madagascar.  Honde was moving toward the southeast at 4 m.p.h. (6 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 970 mb.

Bands in the northern side of Tropical Cyclone Honde continued to bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to parts of southern Madagascar on Saturday.  A circular eye with a diameter of 24 miles (38 km) was at the center of Honde’s circulation.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Tropical Cyclone Honde.  Storms near the center of Honde generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.  The divergence of mass in the upper levels of the atmosphere was almost balanced by the inflow of mass in the lower levels of Tropical Cyclone Honde.  As a result, the surface pressure was not changing much.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Honde was large.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 40 miles (65 km) in the southern half of Honde’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 220 miles (350 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Honde.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Honde was 10.4.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 12.5 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 22.9.  Tropical Cyclone Honde was similar in intensity to Hurricane Dolly when Dolly hit south Texas in 2008.

Tropical Cyclone Honde will move through an environment marginally favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Honde will move over water where where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 27°C.  It will move under the eastern side of an upper level trough near southern Africa.  The upper level trough will produce northwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Honde’s circulation.  Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear.  The moderate vertical wind shear will inhibit intensification. Tropical Cyclone Honde will likely maintain its intensity during the next 24 hours.

The upper level trough near southern Africa will steer Tropical Cyclone Honde slowly toward the southeast during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, the center of Tropical Cyclone Honde will move a little farther away from southern Madagascar.

Tropical Cyclone Honde will continue to bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to parts of southern Madagascar during the next 24 hours.  Prolonged heavy rain will likely cause flash floods in some locations.

Elsewhere over the Southwest Indian Ocean, Tropical Cyclone Garance was weakening as it moved farther to the south of La Reunion.  At 4:00 a.m. EST on Saturday the center of Tropical Cyclone Garance was located at latitude 28.6°S and longitude 55.0°E which put the center about 505 miles (815 km) south of St. Denis, La, Reunion.  Garance was moving toward the south at 21 m.p.h. (33 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 986 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Garance Batters La Reunion

Tropical Cyclone Garance battered La Reunion on Friday.  At 4:00 a.m. EST on Friday the center of Tropical Cyclone Garance was located at latitude 21.8°S and longitude 55.4°E which put the center about 35 miles (55 km) south-southeast of St. Denis, La, Reunion.  Garance was moving toward the south at 15 m.p.h. (24 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 105 m.p.h. (165 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 125 m.p.h. (200 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 962 mb.

The core of Tropical Cyclone Garance moved directly over La Reunion on Friday.  Roland Garros airport (FMEE) measured a sustained wind speed of 61 knots (70 m.p.h. or 113 km/h) and a wind gust of 83 knots (95 m.p.h. or 154 km/h).

Tropical Cyclone Garance dropped very heavy rain on La Reunion.  There were reports of flooding.  Roland Garros airport (FMEE) measured 6.48 inches (164.6 mm) of rain.  A weather station at Piton-Maido reported 18.49 inches (469.6 mm) of rain.  A weather station at Cilaos reported 17.06 inches (433.4 mm) of rain.

Tropical Cyclone Garance was a small tropical cyclone when it hit La Reunion.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 25 miles (40 km) from the center of Garance’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 105 miles (165 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Garance.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Garance was 17.8.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 8,8 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 26.6.  Tropical Cyclone Garance was similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Zeta when Zeta hit Louisiana in 2020.

Tropical Cyclone Garance will be pulled around the eastern side of the larger circulation around Tropical Cyclone Honde.  Garance will move toward the south during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Garance will move south of La Reunion later today.

Tropical Cyclone Garance will weaken significantly during its passage over La Reunion.  Tropical Cyclone Garance will move through an environment that will become unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Garance will move over water where where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C.  However, it will move under the upper level outflow from Tropical Cyclone Honde.  The upper level outflow from Honde’s circulation will cause the vertical wind shear to increase over Garance.  The increase in vertical wind shear will cause Tropical Cyclone Garance to weaken during the next 24 hours.

Elsewhere over the Southwest Indian Ocean, Tropical Cyclone Honde brought strong winds and heavy rain  to southern Madagascar.  At 4:00 a.m. EST on Friday the center of Tropical Cyclone Honde was located at latitude 26.1°S and longitude 44.0°E which put the center about 190 miles (305 km) south of Toliara, Madagascar.  Honde was moving toward the east-southeast at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 70 m.p.h. (110 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 974 mb.