Tropical Cyclone Horatio moved over the South Indian Ocean toward Rodrigues on Sunday. At 4:00 p.m. EST on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone Horatio was located at latitude 18.1°S and longitude 61.8°E which put the center about 320 miles (515 km) east-northeast of Port Mathurin, Rodrigues. Horatio was moving toward the west-southwest at 11 m.p.h. (17 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 989 mb.
Tropical Cyclone Horatio strengthened on Sunday. The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the northern side of the center of Horatio’s circulation. More thunderstorms formed in bands revolving around the center of Tropical Cyclone Horatio. Storms near the center of Horatio generated upper level divergence that pumped more mass away from the tropical cyclone. The removal of more mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.
The distribution of wind speeds in Tropical Cyclone Horatio became more symmetrical when Horatio strengthened on Sunday. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 90 miles (145 km) from the center of Horatio’s circulation.
Tropical Cyclone Horatio will move through an environment that will be favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Horatio will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C. It will move under the northern part of an upper level ridge that is over the South Indian Ocean. The upper level ridge will continue to produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of Horatio’s circulation. Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear. The vertical wind shear will inhibit intensification, but the wind shear will not be enough to prevent intensification. Tropical Cyclone Horatio will intensify during the next 24 hours. Horatio could intensify rapidly at times. Tropical Cyclone Horatio is likely to strengthen to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon by Monday.
Tropical Cyclone Horatio will move around the northwestern part of a high pressure system that is over the South Indian Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Horatio toward the southwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Horatio will pass east of Rodrigues in 24 hours.