Tag Archives: 23S

Tropical Cyclone Honde Moves Away from Southern Madagascar

Tropical Cyclone Honde moved away from southern Madagascar on Monday.  At 4:00 a.m. EST on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone Honde was located at latitude 27.5°S and longitude 46.9°E which put the center about 220 miles (355 km) south-southeast of Ambovombe, Madagascar.  Honde was moving toward the southeast at 4 m.p.h. (6 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 984 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Honde appeared to be beginning the start of a transition to an extratropical cyclone as it moved away from southern Madagascar on Monday.  Changes to the appearance of Honde’s circulation were evident on satellite images.  Some drier air was being pulled around the northern side of the center of Tropical Cyclone Honde and a dry slot was visible in satellite images.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were still revolving around the center of Honde’s circulation.  Storms near the center of Honde still generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the southeast of the tropical cyclone.  The removal of mass in the upper levels was less than the inflow of mass in the lower levels of the atmosphere.  So, the surface pressure was increasing.

The area of tropical storm force winds in Tropical Cyclone Honde decreased as Honde weakened.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 100 miles (160 km) from the center of Honde’s circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Honde will move through an environment that will be unfavorable for intensification of a tropical cyclone during the next 24 hours.  Honde will move over water where where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 26°C.  It will move under the eastern side of an upper level trough near southern Africa.  The upper level trough will produce northwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Honde’s circulation.  Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear.  The moderate vertical wind shear will inhibit intensification.  The wind shear will cause Tropical Cyclone Honde to continue its transition to an extratropical cyclone during the next 24 hours.

The upper level trough near southern Africa will steer Tropical Cyclone Honde toward the southeast during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, the center of Tropical Cyclone Honde will continue to move farther away from southern Madagascar.

Several bands in the northern periphery of Tropical Cyclone Honde were still over southern Madagascar.  Those rainbands will continue to bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to parts of southern Madagascar during the next 24 hours.  Additional heavy rain will likely cause flash floods in some locations.

Tropical Cyclone Honde Lingers Near Southern Madagascar

Tropical Cyclone Honde lingered near southern Madagascar on Sunday.  At 4:00 a.m. EST on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone Honde was located at latitude 27.1°S and longitude 46.1°E which put the center about 195 miles (315 km) south of Ambovombe, Madagascar.  Honde was moving toward the southeast at 2 m.p.h. (3 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 975 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Honde was the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon as it lingered near southern Madagascar on Sunday.  A circular eye with a diameter of 20 miles (32 km) was at the center of Honde’s circulation.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Tropical Cyclone Honde.  Storms near the center of Honde generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.  The divergence of mass in the upper levels of the atmosphere was almost balanced by the inflow of mass in the lower levels of Tropical Cyclone Honde.  As a result, the surface pressure was not changing much.

The size of the circulation around Tropical Cyclone Honde was smaller on Sunday.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 40 miles (65 km) in the southern half of Honde’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 140 miles (220 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Honde.

Tropical Cyclone Honde will move through an environment that will become less favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Honde will move over water where where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 27°C.  It will move under the eastern side of an upper level trough near southern Africa.  The upper level trough will produce northwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Honde’s circulation.  Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear.  The moderate vertical wind shear will inhibit intensification.  Tropical Cyclone Honde will likely maintain its intensity during the next 24 hours.

The upper level trough near southern Africa will steer Tropical Cyclone Honde toward the southeast during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, the center of Tropical Cyclone Honde will gradually move farther away from southern Madagascar.

Bands in the northern side of Tropical Cyclone Honde will continue to bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to parts of southern Madagascar during the next 24 hours.  Additional heavy rain will likely cause flash floods in some locations.

Elsewhere over the Southwest Indian Ocean, Tropical Cyclone Garance was making a transformation to and extratropical cyclone far to the south of La Reunion.  At 4:00 a.m. EST on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone Garance was located at latitude 33.8°S and longitude 59.9°E which put the center about 925 miles (1495 km) south-southeast of St. Denis, La, Reunion.  Garance was moving toward the southeast at 25 m.p.h. (40 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 993 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Honde Brings Wind and Rain to Southern Madagascar

Tropical Cyclone Honde continued to bring wind and rain to southern Madagascar on Saturday.  At 4:00 a.m. EST on Saturday the center of Tropical Cyclone Honde was located at latitude 26.9°S and longitude 45.3°E which put the center about 120 miles (195 km) south of Tsiombe, Madagascar.  Honde was moving toward the southeast at 4 m.p.h. (6 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 970 mb.

Bands in the northern side of Tropical Cyclone Honde continued to bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to parts of southern Madagascar on Saturday.  A circular eye with a diameter of 24 miles (38 km) was at the center of Honde’s circulation.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Tropical Cyclone Honde.  Storms near the center of Honde generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.  The divergence of mass in the upper levels of the atmosphere was almost balanced by the inflow of mass in the lower levels of Tropical Cyclone Honde.  As a result, the surface pressure was not changing much.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Honde was large.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 40 miles (65 km) in the southern half of Honde’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 220 miles (350 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Honde.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Honde was 10.4.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 12.5 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 22.9.  Tropical Cyclone Honde was similar in intensity to Hurricane Dolly when Dolly hit south Texas in 2008.

Tropical Cyclone Honde will move through an environment marginally favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Honde will move over water where where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 27°C.  It will move under the eastern side of an upper level trough near southern Africa.  The upper level trough will produce northwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Honde’s circulation.  Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear.  The moderate vertical wind shear will inhibit intensification. Tropical Cyclone Honde will likely maintain its intensity during the next 24 hours.

The upper level trough near southern Africa will steer Tropical Cyclone Honde slowly toward the southeast during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, the center of Tropical Cyclone Honde will move a little farther away from southern Madagascar.

Tropical Cyclone Honde will continue to bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to parts of southern Madagascar during the next 24 hours.  Prolonged heavy rain will likely cause flash floods in some locations.

Elsewhere over the Southwest Indian Ocean, Tropical Cyclone Garance was weakening as it moved farther to the south of La Reunion.  At 4:00 a.m. EST on Saturday the center of Tropical Cyclone Garance was located at latitude 28.6°S and longitude 55.0°E which put the center about 505 miles (815 km) south of St. Denis, La, Reunion.  Garance was moving toward the south at 21 m.p.h. (33 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 986 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Garance Batters La Reunion

Tropical Cyclone Garance battered La Reunion on Friday.  At 4:00 a.m. EST on Friday the center of Tropical Cyclone Garance was located at latitude 21.8°S and longitude 55.4°E which put the center about 35 miles (55 km) south-southeast of St. Denis, La, Reunion.  Garance was moving toward the south at 15 m.p.h. (24 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 105 m.p.h. (165 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 125 m.p.h. (200 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 962 mb.

The core of Tropical Cyclone Garance moved directly over La Reunion on Friday.  Roland Garros airport (FMEE) measured a sustained wind speed of 61 knots (70 m.p.h. or 113 km/h) and a wind gust of 83 knots (95 m.p.h. or 154 km/h).

Tropical Cyclone Garance dropped very heavy rain on La Reunion.  There were reports of flooding.  Roland Garros airport (FMEE) measured 6.48 inches (164.6 mm) of rain.  A weather station at Piton-Maido reported 18.49 inches (469.6 mm) of rain.  A weather station at Cilaos reported 17.06 inches (433.4 mm) of rain.

Tropical Cyclone Garance was a small tropical cyclone when it hit La Reunion.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 25 miles (40 km) from the center of Garance’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 105 miles (165 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Garance.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Garance was 17.8.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 8,8 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 26.6.  Tropical Cyclone Garance was similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Zeta when Zeta hit Louisiana in 2020.

Tropical Cyclone Garance will be pulled around the eastern side of the larger circulation around Tropical Cyclone Honde.  Garance will move toward the south during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Garance will move south of La Reunion later today.

Tropical Cyclone Garance will weaken significantly during its passage over La Reunion.  Tropical Cyclone Garance will move through an environment that will become unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Garance will move over water where where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C.  However, it will move under the upper level outflow from Tropical Cyclone Honde.  The upper level outflow from Honde’s circulation will cause the vertical wind shear to increase over Garance.  The increase in vertical wind shear will cause Tropical Cyclone Garance to weaken during the next 24 hours.

Elsewhere over the Southwest Indian Ocean, Tropical Cyclone Honde brought strong winds and heavy rain  to southern Madagascar.  At 4:00 a.m. EST on Friday the center of Tropical Cyclone Honde was located at latitude 26.1°S and longitude 44.0°E which put the center about 190 miles (305 km) south of Toliara, Madagascar.  Honde was moving toward the east-southeast at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 70 m.p.h. (110 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 974 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Garance Intensifies to Equivalent of Major Hurricane

Tropical Cyclone Garance intensified to the equivalent of a major hurricane north of La Reunion on Thursday.  At 4:00 a.m. EST on Thursday the center of Tropical Cyclone Garance was located at latitude 18.5°S and longitude 55.4°E which put the center about 155 miles (205 km) north of St. Denis, La, Reunion.  Garance was moving toward the southeast at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h). 0 The maximum sustained wind speed was 120 m.p.h. (195 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 150 m.p.h. (240 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 955 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Garance intensified to the equivalent of a major hurricane north of La Reunion on Thursday.  A circular eye with a diameter of 17 miles (28 km) was at the center of Garance’s circulation.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Garance’s circulation.  Storms near the center generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Garance was small.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 35 miles (55 km) from the center of Garance’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 105 miles (165 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Garance.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Garance was 22.1.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 12.3 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 34.4. Tropical Cyclone Garance was similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Dennis when Dennis hit Northwest Florida in 2005.

Tropical Cyclone Garance will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 12 hours.  Garance will move over water where where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move under an upper level ridge that is east of Madagascar.  The upper level winds are weak in the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Cyclone Garance could continue to intensify during the next 12 hours unless an eyewall replacement cycle occurs.

Tropical Cyclone Garance is likely to get pulled into the eastern side of the larger circulation around Tropical Cyclone Honde, which is over the southern Mozambique Channel.  The larger circulation around Honde will steer Garance toward the south during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Garance will reach La Reunion within the next 18 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Garance is likely to be the equivalent of a major hurricane when it reaches La Reunion.  Garance will be capable of causing major damage on La Reunion.  Tropical Cyclone Garance will also drop heavy rain on La Reunion.  Heavy rain is likely to cause widespread flash flooding.  Garance could cause a storm surge of up to 10 feet (3 meters) along the coast of La Reunion.

Bands in the eastern side of Tropical Cyclone Garance could also bring strong winds and heavy rain to Mauritius.  There were reports that the airport on Mauritius was closed as a precaution.

Elsewhere, Tropical Cyclone Honde intensified to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon over the southern Mozambique Channel near Madagascar.  At 4:00 a.m. EST on Thursday the center of Tropical Cyclone Honde was located at latitude 25.0°S and longitude 41.8°E which put the center about 170 miles (280 km) southwest of Toliara, Madagascar.  Honde was moving toward the southeast at 13 m.p.h. (21 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 970 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Honde will bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to southern Madagascar.  Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations.

Tropical Cyclone Garance Intensifies to Equivalent of Hurricane/Typhoon

Tropical Cyclone Garance intensified to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon north-northwest of La Reunion on Wednesday.  At 4:00 p.m. EST on Wednesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Garance was located at latitude 17.8°S and longitude 54.7°E which put the center about 200 miles (325 km) north-northwest of St. Denis, La, Reunion.  Garance was moving toward the east-southeast at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 120 m.p.h. (195 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 974 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Garance rapidly intensified to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon over the Southwest Indian Ocean north-northwest of La Reunion on Wednesday.  The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the center of Garance’s circulation.  A small circular eye appeared to be forming at the center of Tropical Cyclone Garance.  The developing eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Garance’s circulation.  Storms near the center generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Garance was small.  Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 35 miles (55 km) from the center of Garance’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 100 miles (160 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Garance.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Garance was 16.5  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 11.2 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 27.7.  Tropical Cyclone Garance was similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Idalia when Idalia hit Florida in 2023.

Tropical Cyclone Garance will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Garance will move over water where where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C.  It will move under the northern side of an upper level low that is southeast of La Reunion.  The upper level low will produce westerly winds that will blow toward the top of Garance’s circulation.  Those winds will some vertical wind shear.  The vertical wind shear will inhibit intensification, but the wind shear will not be enough to prevent intensification. Tropical Cyclone Garance will intensify during the next 24 hours.  Garance is likely to strengthen to the equivalent of a major hurricane.

Tropical Cyclone Garance could get pulled into the eastern side of the larger circulation around Tropical Cyclone Honde, which is over the Mozambique Channel.  The larger circulation around Honde will steer Garance toward the south during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Garance will approach La Reunion in 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Garance is likely to be the equivalent of a major hurricane when it reaches La Reunion.  Garance will be capable of causing major damage on La Reunion.  Tropical Cyclone Garance will also drop heavy rain on La Reunion.  Heavy rain is likely to cause widespread flash flooding.  Garance could cause a storm surge of up to 10 feet (3 meters) along the coast of La Reunion.

Elsewhere, Tropical Cyclone Honde was intensifying over the Mozambique Channel.  At 4:00 p.m. EST on Wednesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Honde was located at latitude 24.1°S and longitude 40.2°E which put the center about 255 miles (410 km) west of Toliara, Madagascar. Honde was moving toward the east-southeast at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 70 m.p.h. (110 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 981 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Hidaya Makes Landfall in Tanzania

Tropical Cyclone Hidaya made landfall in Tanzania on Saturday. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Cyclone Hidaya was located at latitude 7.5°S and longitude 38.4°E which put it about 40 miles (650 km) south of the Dar es Salaam, Tanzania. Hidaya was moving toward the west at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 996 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Hidaya made landfall on the coast of Tanzania south of Dar es Salaam on Saturday. The center of Hidaya’s circulation crossed the coast near Kisiju. Tropical Cyclone Hidaya was the equivalent of a tropical storm at the time of landfall. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 85 miles (135 km) from the center of Hidaya’s circulation. Tropical Cyclone Hidaya brought gusty winds and locally heavy rain to the southeastern part of Tanzania.

Tropical Cyclone Hidaya will move around the northern side of a high pressure system over the Southwest Indian Ocean and southern Africa. The high pressure system will steer Hidaya toward the west during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Hidaya will move farther inland over southern Tanzania.

Tropical Cyclone Hidaya will weaken rapidly as it moves farther inland. Hidaya will move into a region of drier air which will cause it to weaken rapidly as it moves inland. Tropical Cyclone Hidaya will continue to produce gusty winds and locally heavy rain over parts of southern Tanzania during the next 24 hours. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Tropical Cyclone Hidaya Nears Tanzania

Tropical Cyclone Hidaya neared the coast of Tanzania on Friday night. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Cyclone Hidaya was located at latitude 7.8°S and longitude 40.5°E which put it about 125 miles (200 km) southeast of the Dar es Salaam, Tanzania. Hidaya was moving toward the west-northwest at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 988 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Hidaya started to weaken on Friday as it approached the coast of Tanzania. Westerly winds blowing around the northern side of Hidaya’s circulation pulled drier air that was over Africa into the tropical cyclone. The drier air circulated around the northern and eastern parts of Tropical Cyclone Hidaya. When the drier air reached rainbands in those parts of Hidaya’s circulation, some of the thunderstorms weakened. When the thunderstorms weakened, the upper level divergence decreased. Less mass was pumped away from the tropical cyclone and the surface pressure started to increase.

Even though Tropical Cyclone Hidaya started to weaken, its circulation was still well organized. A small circular eye was evident at the center of Hidaya’s circulation in infrared satellite images. The eye was surrounded by a narrow ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were still occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Tropical Cyclone Hidaya. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 100 miles (160 km) from the center of Hidaya’s circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Hidaya will move through an environment that will become more unfavorable for intensification during the next 12 hours. Hidaya will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C. It will move under the axis of an upper level ridge over the South Indian Ocean. The upper level winds are weak near the axis of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. However, Tropical Cyclone Hidaya will pull more drier air that is currently over Africa into its circulation as it moves closer to the coast of Tanzania. The drier air is likely to cause more thunderstorms to weaken, which will further decrease the upper level divergence. The surface pressure will continue to increase as the upper level divergence decreases. Tropical Cyclone Hidaya is likely to continue to weaken during the next 12 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Hidaya will move around the northern side of a high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean. The high pressure system will steer the Hidaya toward the northwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Hidaya will approach the coast of Tanzania near Dar es Salaam in 12 hours. Hidaya will bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to eastern Tanzania. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations. Hidaya will also bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to Zanzibar and Mafia Island. Tropical Cyclone Hidaya could also produce a storm surge of up to 7 feet (2 meters) along the coast of Tanzania.

Tropical Cyclone Hidaya Rapidly Intensifies to Equivalent of Hurricane/Typhoon

Tropical Cyclone Hidaya rapidly intensified to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon over the South Indian Ocean east of Tanzania on Thursday. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Cyclone Hidaya was located at latitude 8.7°S and longitude 43.0°E which put it about 295 miles (475 km) east-southeast of the Dar es Salaam, Tanzania. Hidaya was moving toward the west at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 105 m.p.h. (165 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 977 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Hidaya rapidly intensified from the equivalent of a tropical storm to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon on Thursday. The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the center of Hidaya’s circulation. A circular eye with a diameter of 30 miles (50 km) formed at the center of Tropical Cyclone Hidaya. The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Tropical Cyclone Hidaya. Storms near the core generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone. The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Hidaya was symmetrical. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 25 miles (40 km) from the center of Hidaya’s circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 125 miles (200 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Hidaya.

Tropical Cyclone Hidaya will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Hidaya will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C. It will move under the axis of an upper level ridge over the South Indian Ocean. The upper level winds are weak near the axis of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Cyclone Hidaya is likely to intensify during the next 24 hours. Hidaya could continue to intensify rapidly and it could strengthen to the equivalent of a major hurricane.

Tropical Cyclone Hidaya will move around the northern side of a high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean. The high pressure system will steer the Hidaya toward the west during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Hidaya will move toward the coast of Tanzania. Hidaya could approach the coast near Dar es Salaam on Saturday. Hidaya could bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to eastern Tanzania. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations. Tropical Cyclone Hidaya could also produce a storm surge of up to 10 feet (3 meters) along the coast of Tanzania.

Tropical Cyclone Hidaya Develops East of Tanzania

Tropical Cyclone Hidaya developed over the South Indian Ocean east of Tanzania on Wednesday. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Hidaya was located at latitude 8.6°S and longitude 45.0°E which put it about 2250 miles (360 km) north-northeast of the Comoros. Hidaya was moving toward the west at 4 m.p.h. (6 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 999 mb.

A former tropical depression over the South Indian Ocean north-northeast of Comoros strengthened on Wednesday and Meteo France La Reunion designated the system as Tropical Cyclone Hidaya. Thunderstorms were occurring near the center of Hidaya’s circulation. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of circulation. Storms near the center of Hidaya generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 100 miles (160 km) from the center of Tropical Cyclone Hidaya.

Tropical Cyclone Hidaya will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Hidaya will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C. It will move under the western end of the axis of an upper level ridge over the South Indian Ocean. The upper level winds are weak near the axis of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Cyclone Hidaya is likely to intensify during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Hidaya will move around the northern side of a high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean. The high pressure system will steer the Hidaya toward the west during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Hidaya will move north of Comoros on Thursday. Hidaya will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to Comoros. Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations. Tropical Cyclone Hidaya could approach the coast of Africa near southern Tanzania and northern Mozambique later this week.