Tag Archives: SH11

Tropical Cyclone Grant Moves Northeast of Rodrigues

Tropical Cyclone Grant moved northeast of Rodrigues over the South Indian Ocean on Friday.  At 10:00 a.m. EST on Friday the center of Tropical Cyclone Grant was located at latitude 15.2°S and longitude 66.4°E which put the center about 375 miles (605 km) north-northeast of Rodrigues.  Grant was moving toward the west-northwest at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1000 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Grant was maintaining its intensity on Friday morning.  An upper level ridge over the South Indian Ocean continued to produce easterly winds that blew toward the top of Grant’s circulation.  Those winds were causing strong vertical wind shear.  The strong vertical wind shear was affecting the structure of Tropical Cyclone Grant.  Thunderstorms were still occurring in bands in the western half of Grant’s circulation.  Bands in the eastern half of Grant consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Storms near the center of Grant still generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the west of the tropical cyclone. However, the removal of mass in the upper levels was about the same as the convergence of mass in the lower levels of the atmosphere.  So, the surface pressure remained nearly constant.

The vertical wind shear was also affecting the distribution of wind speeds in Tropical Cyclone Grant.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 70 miles (110 km) in the western side of Grant’s circulation.  The winds in the eastern side of Tropical Cyclone Grant were blowing at less that tropical storm force.

Tropical Cyclone Grant will move through an environment that will be marginally favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Grant will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C.  It will move under the northern part of an upper level ridge over the South Indian Ocean.  The upper level ridge will continue to produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of Grant’s circulation.  Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear.  The moderate wind shear will inhibit intensification.  Tropical Cyclone Grant is likely to maintain its intensity during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Grant will move around the northern side of a high pressure system over the South Indian  Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Grant toward the west during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Grant will pass north of Rodrigues on Saturday.  Grant will pass north of Mauritius and La Reunion on Monday.  Tropical Cyclone Grant could approach the east coast of Madagascar on Tuesday.

Elsewhere over the South Indian Ocean, Tropical Cyclone Iggy weakened south-southeast of Christmas Island.  At 10:00 a.m. EST on Friday the center of Tropical Cyclone Iggy was located at latitude 16.8°S and longitude 1086°E which put the center about 455 miles (735 km) south-southeast of Christmas Island.  Iggy was moving toward the southwest at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1003 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Grant Weakens

Tropical Cyclone Grant weakened as it moved over the South Indian Ocean northeast of Rodrigues on Thursday.  At 10:00 p.m. EST on Thursday the center of Tropical Cyclone Grant was located at latitude 15.7°S and longitude 67.1°E which put the center about 370 miles (600 km) northeast of Rodrigues.  Grant was moving toward the west-northwest at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 997 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Grant weakened rapidly on Thursday.  An upper level ridge over the South Indian Ocean produced easterly winds that blew toward the top of Grant’s circulation.  Those winds caused strong vertical wind shear.  The strong wind shear caused Tropical Cyclone Grant to weaken rapidly.

The strong vertical wind shear also affected the structure of Tropical Cyclone Grant.  Thunderstorms were still occurring in bands in the western half of Grant’s circulation.  Bands in the eastern half of Grant consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Storms near the center of Grant still generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the west of the tropical cyclone.  However, the removal of mass in the upper levels was much less than the convergence of mass in the lower levels of the atmosphere.  So, the surface pressure increased rapidly on Thursday.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Grant was small.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 100 miles (160 km) from the center of Grant’s circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Grant will move through an environment that will be marginally favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Grant will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C.  It will move under the northern part of an upper level ridge over the South Indian Ocean.  The upper level ridge will continue to produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of Grant’s circulation.  Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear.  The moderate wind shear will inhibit intensification.  Tropical Cyclone Grant is likely to maintain its intensity during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Grant will move around the northern side of a high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Grant toward the west during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Grant will pass north of Rodrigues on Saturday.  Grant will pass north of Mauritius and La Reunion on Monday.

Elsewhere over the South Indian Ocean, Tropical Cyclone Iggy moved farther away from Christmas Island.  At 10:00 p.m. EST on Thursday the center of Tropical Cyclone Iggy was located at latitude 15.4°S and longitude 106.5°E which put the center about 425 miles (685 km) south-southeast of Christmas Island.  Iggy was moving toward the south-southeast at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1000 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Iggy Forms Southeast of Christmas Island

Tropical Cyclone Iggy formed over the South Indian Ocean southeast of Christmas Island on Wednesday evening.  At 10:00 p.m. EST on Wednesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Iggy was located at latitude 12.5°S and longitude 107.9°E which put the center about 200 miles (320 km) southeast of Christmas Island.  Iggy was moving toward the south-southeast at 11 m.p.h. (17 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 998 mb.

A low pressure system over the South Indian Ocean southeast of Diego Garcia strengthened on Wednesday evening and the Australian Bureau of Meteorology designated the system as Tropical Cyclone Iggy.

More thunderstorms developed near the center of Tropical Cyclone Iggy on Wednesday evening.  Thunderstorms also formed in bands revolving around the center of Iggy’s circulation.  Storms near the center of Iggy began to generate upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Iggy was small.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 80 miles (130 km) from the center of Iggy’s circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Iggy will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Iggy will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C.  It will move under the southwestern part of an upper level ridge that is northwest of Australia.  The upper level ridge will produce northwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Iggy’s circulation.  Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear.  The vertical wind shear will inhibit intensification, but the wind shear will not be enough to prevent intensification.  Tropical Cyclone Iggy will intensify during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Iggy will move around the southwestern side of a high pressure system that is northwest of Australia.  The high pressure system will steer Iggy toward the southeast during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Iggy will move farther away from Christmas Island.

Elsewhere over the South Indian Ocean, Tropical Cyclone Grant weakened as it moved farther away from Diego Garcia.  At 10:00 p.m. EST on Wednesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Grant was located at latitude 16.2°S and longitude 68.5°E which put the center about 670 miles (1080 km) south-southwest of Diego Garcia.  Grant was moving toward the west-southwest at 11 m.p.h. (17 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 984 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Faida Brings Wind and Rain to Madagascar

Tropical Cyclone Faida brought wind and rain to Madagascar on Monday night.  At 10:00 p.m. EST on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone Faida was located at latitude 18.5°S and longitude 49.7°E which put the center about 35 miles (55 km) southeast of the Toamasina, Madagascar.  Faida was moving toward the west at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 998 mb.

Even though the center of Tropical Cyclone Faida was just off the east coast of Madagascar on Monday night, bands in the western side of of Faida’s circulation were already over land.  Those bands brought strong winds and locally heavy rain to parts of northern and central Madagascar.

The strongest winds and heaviest rain were in the western half of Tropical Cyclone Faida.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 70 miles (110 km) in the western side of Faida’s circulation.  The winds in the eastern half of Tropical Cyclone Faida were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Cyclone Faida will move around the northern part of a high pressure system over the Southwest Indian Ocean and southern Africa.  The high pressure system will steer Faida toward the west during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Faida will move across Madagascar during the next 36 hours.  The center of Faida’s circulation will pass near Toamasina and Antananarivo.

Tropical Cyclone Faida will continue to drop heavy rain over parts of northern and central Madagascar.  Heavy rain is likely to cause floods in some locations.

Elsewhere, Tropical Cyclone Vince intensified southwest of the Cocos Islands and Tropical Cyclone Taliah continued to spin northwest of Australia.

At 4:00 p.m. EST on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone Vince was located at latitude 17.3°S and longitude 91.5°E which put the center about 465 miles (750 km) southwest of the Cocos Islands.  Vince was moving toward the west-southwest at 17 m.p.h. (28 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 978 mb.

At 4:00 p.m. EST on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone Taliah was located at latitude 15.5°S and longitude 112.4°E which put the center about 485 miles (780 km) north of Exmouth, Australia.  Taliah was moving toward the west at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 105 m.p.h. (165 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 972 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Faida Develops Just East of Madagascar

Tropical Cyclone Faida developed just east of Madagascar on Monday morning.  At 10:00 a.m. EST on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone Faida was located at latitude 18.1°S and longitude 50.3°E which put the center about 70 miles (110 km) east of the Toamasina, Madagascar.  Faida was moving toward the west at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 998 mb.

A low pressure system just to the east of Madagascar strengthened on early on Monday and Meteo France La Reunion designated the system as Tropical Cyclone Faida.  The distribution of thunderstorms in Tropical Cyclone Faida was asymmetrical.  Thunderstorms were occurring mainly in bands in the western side of Faida’s circulation.  Bands in the eastern part of Tropical Cyclone Faida consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Storms near the center of Faida generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the west of the tropical cyclone.

The distribution of wind speed in Tropical Cyclone Faida was also asymmetrical.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 70 miles (110 km) in the western half of Faida’s circulation.  The winds in the eastern side of Tropical Cyclone Faida were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Cyclone Faida will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 12 hours.  Faida will move over water where where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move under the northern part of an upper level ridge over the Southwest Indian Ocean.  The upper level ridge will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of Faida’s circulation.  Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear.  The vertical wind shear will inhibit intensification, but Tropical Cyclone Faida could intensity during the next 12 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Faida will move around the northern part of a high pressure system over the Southwest Indian Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Faida toward the west during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Faida will make landfall on the northern coast of Madagascar near Toamasina in 12 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Faida will bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to northern Madagascar.  Heavy rain is likely to cause floods in some locations.

Tropical Cyclone Nat Moves Southwest of Tahiti

Tropical Cyclone Nat moved southwest of Tahiti on Wednesday. At 4:00 p.m. EST on Wednesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Nat was located at latitude 19.5°S and longitude 151.2°W which put it about 185 miles (300 km) southwest of Papeete, Tahiti. Nat was moving toward the southeast at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 998 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Nat brought rain showers and gusty winds to Tahiti on Wednesday. Nat started to weaken as it moved southwest of Tahiti. An upper level trough northeast of New Zealand produced strong westerly winds that blew across the top of Nat’s circulation. Those winds cause strong vertical wind shear. The strong upper level winds blew away the tops of many of the thunderstorms in Tropical Cyclone Nat. A few thunderstorms persisted in a band in the far eastern edge of Nat’s circulation. Other bands revolving around the center of Tropical Cyclone Nat consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 75 miles (120 km) from the center of Nat’s circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Nat will move through an environment unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Nat will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C. However, the upper level trough northeast of New Zealand will continue to cause strong vertical wind shear. The strong vertical wind shear will cause Tropical Cyclone Nat to continue to weaken during the next 24 hours.

The upper level trough northeast of New Zealand will steer Tropical Cyclone Nat toward the east during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, the center of Tropical Cyclone Nat will pass south of Tahiti. Bands in the northern side of Nat will continue to bring gusty winds and rain showers to Tahiti during the next 24 hours.

Elsewhere over the South Pacific Ocean, Tropical Cyclone Osai strengthened west of Palmerston Island. At 4:00 p.m. EST on Wednesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Osai was located at latitude 18.1°S and longitude 164.4°W which put it about 85 miles (135 km) west of Palmerston Island. Osai was moving toward the southeast at 18 m.p.h. (29 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 993 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Nat Moves Toward Tahiti

Tropical Cyclone Nat moved toward Tahiti on Tuesday. At 4:00 p.m. EST on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Nat was located at latitude 17.6°S and longitude 155.4°W which put it about 415 miles (670 km) west of Pappete, Tahiti. Nat was moving toward the east-southeast at 20 m.p.h. (32 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 993 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Nat strengthened a little as it moved over the South Pacific Ocean toward Tahiti on Tuesday. Thunderstorms continued to form near the center of Nat’s circulation. Storms near the center of circulation generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the east of the tropical cyclone. Thunderstorms were also occurring in bands in the northern and eastern parts of Tropical Cyclone Nat. Bands in the western and southern part of Nat’s circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Winds to tropical storm force extend out 120 miles (195 km) in the northwest, northeast and southeast quadrants of Tropical Cyclone Nat. Winds to tropical storm force only extended out 40 miles (65 km) in the southwest quadrant of Nat.

Tropical Cyclone Nat will move through an environment unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Nat will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C. It will move under the eastern side of an upper level trough over the South Pacific Ocean northeast of New Zealand. The upper level trough will produce strong northwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Nat’s circulation. Those winds will cause strong vertical wind shear. The strong vertical wind shear is likely to cause Tropical Cyclone Nat to start to weaken during the next 24 hours.

The upper level trough northeast of New Zealand will steer Tropical Cyclone Nat toward the east-southeast during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, the center of Tropical Cyclone Nat will pass south of Bora Bora during the next 24 hours. Nat could be near Tahiti within 36 hours. Bands in the northern side of Nat could bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to the Society Islands. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Elsewhere over the South Pacific Ocean, Tropical Cyclone 11P formed north of American Samoa. At 4:00 p.m. EST on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone 11P was located at latitude 13.3°S and longitude 168.9°W which put it about 110 miles (195 km) north of Pago Pago, American Samoa. The tropical cyclone was moving toward the southeast at 21 m.p.h. (33 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 997 mb. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in parts of American Samoa.

Tropical Cyclone Freddy Drops Heavy Rain on Mozambique

Tropical Cyclone Freddy dropped heavy rain on parts of Mozambique on Sunday. At 8:00 a.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Cyclone Freddy was located at latitude 17.2°S and longitude 36.3°E which put it about 55 miles (90 km) northwest of Quelimane, Mozambique. Freddy was moving toward the west-northwest at 6 m.p.h. (9 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 996 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Freddy dropped heavy rain on parts of Mozambique and eastern Zimbabwe on Sunday as it moved slowly farther inland. Since Freddy was moving slowly, there were prolonged periods of heavy rain in some locations. The prolonged periods of heavy rain caused a high risk for floods in those locations. Tropical Cyclone Freddy was still producing winds to tropical storm force in the bands in the eastern side of the circulation over the Mozambique Channel.

Tropical Cyclone Freddy will be in an area where the steering winds are weak during the next several days. Freddy’s circulation is forecast to meander over Mozambique and eastern Zimbabwe. Tropical Cyclone Freddy will continue to weaken slowly while the center of circulation is over land. Freddy will continue to drop heavy rain over parts of Mozambique and eastern Zimbabwe for the next 48 hours. Additional flooding is likely to occur in those places that receive prolonged heavy rain.

Tropical Cyclone Freddy Hits Mozambique Again

Tropical Cyclone Freddy hit Mozambique again on Saturday. At 10:00 a.m. EST on Saturday the center of Tropical Cyclone Freddy was located at latitude 17.9°S and longitude 37.2°E which put it about 25 miles (40 km) east of Quelimane, Mozambique. Freddy was moving toward the northwest at 2 m.p.h. (3 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 110 m.p.h. (175 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 130 m.p.h. (210 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 959 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Freddy intensified before it hit the coast of Mozambique east of Quelimane on Saturday. A circular eye with a diameter of 30 miles (50 km) formed at the center of Freddy’s circulation. A ring of thunderstorms surrounded the eye and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Tropical Cyclone Freddy. Storms near the core generated strong upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Freddy increased in size as Freddy intensified. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 40 miles (65 km) from the center of Freddy’s circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 140 miles (220 km) from the center of circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Tropical Cyclone Freddy was 19.2. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 13.5 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 32.7. Tropical Cyclone Freddy was similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Sally when Sally hit South Alabama in 2020. Tropical Cyclone Freddy was capable of causing regional serious damage.

The steering currents weakened as Tropical Cyclone Freddy approached the coast of central Mozambique. Freddy is forecast to meander near the coast of Mozambique during the next 48 hours. Tropical Cyclone Freddy will begin to weaken when the center of circulation moves completely over land. However, Freddy will cause a prolonged period of strong winds and heavy rain near Quelimane. Heavy rain will cause floods in some locations. Tropical Cyclone Freddy could also cause a storm surge of up to 10 feet (3 meters) along the coast. Widespread electricity outages are likely in the area near Quelimane. There is a chance Freddy could move back over the Mozambique Channel next week.

Tropical Cyclone Freddy Creeps Toward Mozambique

Tropical Cyclone Freddy crept slowly toward the coast of Mozambique on Friday. At 10:00 a.m. EST on Friday the center of Tropical Cyclone Freddy was located at latitude 18.0°S and longitude 38.3°E which put it about 130 miles (210 km) east-southeast of Quelimane, Mozambique. Freddy was moving toward the north-northwest at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 981 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Freddy crept slowly toward the coast of central Mozambique on Friday. Freddy strengthened gradually as it moved closer to the coast. A small circular eye was at the center of Freddy’s circulation on microwave satellite images. The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms revolved around the core of Tropical Cyclone Freddy. Storms near the core generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical cyclone.

The circulation around Tropical Cyclone Freddy was small. Winds to hurricane/typhoon force extended out 15 miles (25 km) from the center of circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 80 miles (130 km) from the center.

Tropical Cyclone Freddy will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Freddy will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29˚C. It will be in an area where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. Freddy will move into a moister air mass that will be more favorable for intensification. Tropical Cyclone Freddy is likely to intensify gradually during the next 24 hours.

A high pressure system southeast of Madagascar will steer Tropical Cyclone Freddy slowly toward the northwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track Tropical Cyclone Freddy will approach the coast of Mozambique between Quelimane and Pebane. Tropical Cyclone Freddy will bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to the coast of central Mozambique. Heavy rain is very likely to cause flash floods in some locations. Freddy could also produce a storm surge of up to 10 feet (3 meters) along portions of the coast. The currents steering Tropical Cyclone Freddy could weaken even more during the weekend. If the steering currents weaken further, then Freddy could stall near the coast of Mozambique. If Tropical Cyclone Freddy stalls near the coast, then prolonged heavy rain could cause serious floods.