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Tropical Cyclone Nat Moves Southwest of Tahiti

Tropical Cyclone Nat moved southwest of Tahiti on Wednesday. At 4:00 p.m. EST on Wednesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Nat was located at latitude 19.5°S and longitude 151.2°W which put it about 185 miles (300 km) southwest of Papeete, Tahiti. Nat was moving toward the southeast at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 998 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Nat brought rain showers and gusty winds to Tahiti on Wednesday. Nat started to weaken as it moved southwest of Tahiti. An upper level trough northeast of New Zealand produced strong westerly winds that blew across the top of Nat’s circulation. Those winds cause strong vertical wind shear. The strong upper level winds blew away the tops of many of the thunderstorms in Tropical Cyclone Nat. A few thunderstorms persisted in a band in the far eastern edge of Nat’s circulation. Other bands revolving around the center of Tropical Cyclone Nat consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 75 miles (120 km) from the center of Nat’s circulation.

Tropical Cyclone Nat will move through an environment unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Nat will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C. However, the upper level trough northeast of New Zealand will continue to cause strong vertical wind shear. The strong vertical wind shear will cause Tropical Cyclone Nat to continue to weaken during the next 24 hours.

The upper level trough northeast of New Zealand will steer Tropical Cyclone Nat toward the east during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, the center of Tropical Cyclone Nat will pass south of Tahiti. Bands in the northern side of Nat will continue to bring gusty winds and rain showers to Tahiti during the next 24 hours.

Elsewhere over the South Pacific Ocean, Tropical Cyclone Osai strengthened west of Palmerston Island. At 4:00 p.m. EST on Wednesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Osai was located at latitude 18.1°S and longitude 164.4°W which put it about 85 miles (135 km) west of Palmerston Island. Osai was moving toward the southeast at 18 m.p.h. (29 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 993 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Nat Moves Toward Tahiti

Tropical Cyclone Nat moved toward Tahiti on Tuesday. At 4:00 p.m. EST on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Nat was located at latitude 17.6°S and longitude 155.4°W which put it about 415 miles (670 km) west of Pappete, Tahiti. Nat was moving toward the east-southeast at 20 m.p.h. (32 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 993 mb.

Tropical Cyclone Nat strengthened a little as it moved over the South Pacific Ocean toward Tahiti on Tuesday. Thunderstorms continued to form near the center of Nat’s circulation. Storms near the center of circulation generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the east of the tropical cyclone. Thunderstorms were also occurring in bands in the northern and eastern parts of Tropical Cyclone Nat. Bands in the western and southern part of Nat’s circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Winds to tropical storm force extend out 120 miles (195 km) in the northwest, northeast and southeast quadrants of Tropical Cyclone Nat. Winds to tropical storm force only extended out 40 miles (65 km) in the southwest quadrant of Nat.

Tropical Cyclone Nat will move through an environment unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Nat will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C. It will move under the eastern side of an upper level trough over the South Pacific Ocean northeast of New Zealand. The upper level trough will produce strong northwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Nat’s circulation. Those winds will cause strong vertical wind shear. The strong vertical wind shear is likely to cause Tropical Cyclone Nat to start to weaken during the next 24 hours.

The upper level trough northeast of New Zealand will steer Tropical Cyclone Nat toward the east-southeast during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, the center of Tropical Cyclone Nat will pass south of Bora Bora during the next 24 hours. Nat could be near Tahiti within 36 hours. Bands in the northern side of Nat could bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to the Society Islands. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Elsewhere over the South Pacific Ocean, Tropical Cyclone 11P formed north of American Samoa. At 4:00 p.m. EST on Tuesday the center of Tropical Cyclone 11P was located at latitude 13.3°S and longitude 168.9°W which put it about 110 miles (195 km) north of Pago Pago, American Samoa. The tropical cyclone was moving toward the southeast at 21 m.p.h. (33 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 997 mb. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in parts of American Samoa.

Tropical Cyclone Nat Forms West of Tahiti

Tropical Cyclone Nat formed over the South Pacific Ocean west of Tahiti on Monday. At 1:00 p.m. EST on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone Nat was located at latitude 15.3°S and longitude 163.6°W which put it about 965 miles (1560 km) west of Pappete, Tahiti. Nat was moving toward the east-southeast at 15 m.p.h. (24 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 996 mb.

A low pressure system over the South Pacific Ocean between Samoa and Tahiti strengthened on Monday and the Fiji Meteorological Service designated the system as Tropical Cyclone Nat. More thunderstorms formed near the center of Tropical Cyclone Nat. Storms near the center of Nat’s circulation generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the east of the tropical cyclone. Thunderstorms were also occurring in bands in the northern and eastern parts of Tropical Cyclone Nat. Bands in the western and southern part of Nat’s circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Winds to tropical storm force extend out 160 miles (260 km) in the northwest, northeast and southeast quadrants of Tropical Cyclone Nat. Winds to tropical storm force only extended out 25 miles (40 km) in the southwest quadrant of Nat.

Tropical Cyclone Nat will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Nat will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C. It will move under the eastern side of an upper level trough over the South Pacific Ocean northeast of New Zealand. The upper level trough will produce northwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Nat’s circulation. Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear. The wind shear will inhibit intensification, but the shear may not be strong enough to prevent intensification. Tropical Cyclone Nat could intensify gradually during the next 24 hours.

The upper level trough northeast of New Zealand will steer Tropical Cyclone Nat toward the east-southeast during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, Nat will move closer to Tahiti. The center of Tropical Cyclone Nat is forecast to pass north of Palmerston, Aitutaki and Mauke. The winds blowing around the southern side of Nat’s could bring gusty winds and rough seas to those places during the next 24 hours.