Tropical Cyclone Faida Develops Just East of Madagascar

Tropical Cyclone Faida developed just east of Madagascar on Monday morning.  At 10:00 a.m. EST on Monday the center of Tropical Cyclone Faida was located at latitude 18.1°S and longitude 50.3°E which put the center about 70 miles (110 km) east of the Toamasina, Madagascar.  Faida was moving toward the west at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 998 mb.

A low pressure system just to the east of Madagascar strengthened on early on Monday and Meteo France La Reunion designated the system as Tropical Cyclone Faida.  The distribution of thunderstorms in Tropical Cyclone Faida was asymmetrical.  Thunderstorms were occurring mainly in bands in the western side of Faida’s circulation.  Bands in the eastern part of Tropical Cyclone Faida consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Storms near the center of Faida generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the west of the tropical cyclone.

The distribution of wind speed in Tropical Cyclone Faida was also asymmetrical.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 70 miles (110 km) in the western half of Faida’s circulation.  The winds in the eastern side of Tropical Cyclone Faida were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Cyclone Faida will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 12 hours.  Faida will move over water where where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move under the northern part of an upper level ridge over the Southwest Indian Ocean.  The upper level ridge will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of Faida’s circulation.  Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear.  The vertical wind shear will inhibit intensification, but Tropical Cyclone Faida could intensity during the next 12 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Faida will move around the northern part of a high pressure system over the Southwest Indian Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Faida toward the west during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Faida will make landfall on the northern coast of Madagascar near Toamasina in 12 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Faida will bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to northern Madagascar.  Heavy rain is likely to cause floods in some locations.

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