Tropical Cyclone Dikeledi formed over the South Indian Ocean northeast of Mauritius on Wednesday evening.  At 7:00 p.m. EST on Wednesday the center of Tropical Cyclone Dikeledi was located at latitude 15.0°S and longitude 66.4°E which put the center about 685 miles (1110 km) northeast of Port Louis, Mauritius.  Dikeledi was moving toward the west at 22 m.p.h. (33 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1001 mb.

A low pressure system over the South Indian Ocean northeast of Mauritius strengthened on Wednesday evening and Meteo France la Reunion designated the system as Tropical Cyclone Dikeledi.  More thunderstorms formed near the center of Tropical Cyclone Dikeledi.  The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the northern and eastern sides of the center of Dikeledi’s circulation.  Other bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Tropical Cyclone Dikeledi.  Storms near the center of Dikeledi generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the south and west of the tropical cyclone.

Tropical Cyclone Dikeledi will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Dikeledi will move over water where where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C.  It will move under the northern part of an upper level ridge over the South Indian Ocean.  The upper level ridge will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of Dikeledi’s circulation.  Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear, but the wind shear will not be enough to prevent intensification.  Tropical Cyclone Dikeledi will intensify during the next 24 hours.  Dikeledi could strengthen to the equivalent of a hurricane/typhoon later this week.

Tropical Cyclone Dikeledi will move around the northern side of a high pressure system over the South Indian Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer DIkeledi toward the west during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Cyclone Dikeledi will pass north of Mauritius and La Reunion.  Dikeledi is likely to approach northern Madagascar later this week.