The Eastern North Pacific Hurricane season officially began on Friday May 15, 2026.  The season began quietly.  No tropical depressions, tropical storms or hurricanes were present over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean.  No tropical cyclones are expected to form over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean during the next few days.   Whenever a tropical storm does form over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean, the first name on the list will be Amanda.

A strong El Niño pattern is expected to develop over the Equatorial Pacific Ocean during the next few months.  Much warmer than normal Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) are expected to be present over the eastern Equatorial Pacific Ocean during the hurricane season.   During a strong El Niño the Sea Surface Temperatures over much of the Eastern North Pacific Ocean are also usually warmer than normal.

While the effect of an El Niño on the Atlantic hurricane season is typically to reduce the number of tropical storms and hurricanes because of more vertical wind shear, the effect of an El Niño on the activity over the Eastern North Pacific can be more complicated.  The effect of an El Niño on the Eastern North Pacific hurricane activity depends partly on where the warmest Equatorial Sea Surface Temperatures are located.

The warmer Sea Surface Temperatures associated with an El Niño produce more rising motion and convection.  The stronger rising motion begins to move toward the east when it reaches the upper troposphere where it produces stronger westerly winds which in turn cause more vertical wind shear.

Warmer Sea Surface Temperatures are favorable for more and stronger hurricanes.  If the stronger rising motion occurs over the eastern part of the Equatorial Pacific, then the increased vertical wind shear will occur over the Caribbean Sea.  In that case the El Niño contributes to a more active Eastern North Pacific hurricane season, because the stronger wind shear is not over the Eastern North Pacific.

However, if the stronger rising motion occurs a little farther to the west in the Equatorial Pacific southeast of Hawaii, then there will be more vertical wind shear over parts of the Eastern North Pacific Ocean.  The stronger vertical wind shear will partially offset the effect of the Warmer Sea Surface Temperatures.  The warmer SSTs may result in more tropical storms, but more vertical wind shear may somewhat limit the number and strength of hurricanes that form over the Eastern North Pacific.

So, the effect of a strong El Niño on the Eastern North Pacific hurricane season in 2026 will depend on where the strongest convection occurs during the next few months.