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Tropical Depression Likely to Form South of Mexico

A tropical depression is likely to form over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean south of Mexico during the next several days.  A broad area of low pressure was located south of Mexico.  At 8:00 a.m. EDT on Monday the center of the area of low pressure was near latitude 10.0°N and longitude 98.0°W which put the center about 500 miles (805 km) south of Acapulco, Mexico.  The low pressure system was moving toward the northwest at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 30 m.p.h. (50 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1008 mb.

A broad area of low pressure was located over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean south of Mexico.  Thunderstorms were scattered inside the broad circulation of the low pressure system.  Satellite images appeared to indicate that some of the thunderstorms were beginning to organize into bands.

The broad area of low pressure will move through an environment favorable for the formation of a tropical depression during the next 48 hours.  The area of low pressure will move over water where where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C.  It will move under the middle of an upper level ridge that is south of Mexico.  The upper level winds are weak near the middle of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  The broad area of low pressure is likely to develop into a tropical depression during the next 48 hours.

The broad area of low pressure will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system over Mexico.  The high pressure system will steer the area of low pressure toward the northwest during the next 48 hours.  On its anticipated track, the area of low pressure will move parallel to the coast of Mexico.

Bonnie Weakens to a Tropical Storm

Former Hurricane Bonnie weakened to a tropical storm as it moved over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean southwest of Baja California on Friday. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Storm Bonnie was located at latitude 18.6°N and longitude 121.8°W which put it about 825 miles (1325 km) west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California. Bonnie was moving toward the west at 18 m.p.h. (30 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (1305 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 998 mb.

The circulation around former Hurricane Bonnie spun down gradually as it moved over cooler water in the Eastern North Pacific southwest of Baja California. The low level circulation around Tropical Storm Bonnie was still well organized. However, thunderstorms in bands revolving around the center of Bonnie weakened. Many of the bands consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. The remaining thunderstorms did not extend as high into the atmosphere and they did not generate much upper level divergence. The inflow of mass at the lower levels caused the surface pressure to increase, because there was not enough upper level divergence to remove the incoming mass. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 60 miles (95 km) from the center of Bonnie.

Tropical Storm Bonnie will move south of a high pressure system over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Bonnie toward the west-northwest during the next 36 hours. On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Bonnie will move farther away from Baja California during the next several days.

Tropical Storm Bonnie will continue to weaken gradually during the next few days. Bonnie will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 24˚C. Tropical Storm Bonnie will not be able to extract enough energy from the upper ocean to maintain its circulation. So, the circulation will continue to spin down gradually during the next few days.

Hurricane Bonnie Churns Southwest of Baja California

Hurricane Bonnie churned over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean southwest of Baja California on Thursday night. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Hurricane Bonnie was located at latitude 18.1°N and longitude 116.9°W which put it about 560 miles (905 km) southwest of the southern tip of Baja California. Bonnie was moving toward the west at 17 m.p.h. (28 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h) and and there were wind gusts to 105 m.p.h. (165 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 980 mb.

Hurricane Bonnie appeared to complete an eyewall replacement cycle on Thursday. The previous small eye and eyewall was replaced by a larger eye. A circular eye with a diameter of 35 miles (55 km) was present at the center of Bonnie on Thursday night. The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Hurricane Bonnie. Storms near the core generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the hurricane.

The circulation around Hurricane Bonnie was still small. Winds to hurricane force extended out 25 miles (40 km) from the center of Bonnie. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Hurricane Bonnie was 13.9. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 6.8 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 20.7.

Hurricane Bonnie will move through an environment that will be unfavorable for intensification during the next 36 hours. Bonnie will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 26˚C. It will move under the southern part of an upper level ridge over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean. The ridge will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of Bonnie’s circulation. Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear. The wind shear will inhibit intensification. Hurricane Bonnie is likely to weaken during the next 36 hours, as it moves over cooler water.

Hurricane Bonnie will move south of a high pressure system over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Bonnie toward the west-northwest during the next 36 hours. On its anticipated track Hurricane Bonnie will move farther away from Baja California during the next several days.

Hurricane Bonnie Moves South of Baja California

Hurricane Bonnie moved south of Baja California on Wednesday afternoon. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Hurricane Bonnie was located at latitude 16.5°N and longitude 110.1°W which put it about 440 miles (710 km) south of the southern tip of Baja California. Bonnie was moving toward the west-northwest at 11 m.p.h. (19 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 105 m.p.h. (165 km/h) and and there were wind gusts to 125 m.p.h. (200 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 972 mb.

Hurricane Bonnie moved toward the west-northwest over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean south of Baja California on Wednesday afternoon. A small circular eye with a diameter of 10 miles (16 km) was at the center of Bonnie’s circulation. The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the small eye and eyewall at times, and it appeared that there could be concentric eyewalls. Other bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the small core of Hurricane Bonnie. Storms near the core generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the hurricane.

The circulation around Hurricane Bonnie was still small. Winds to hurricane force extended out 15 miles (25 km) from the center of Bonnie. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 80 miles (130 km) from the center. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Hurricane Bonnie was 17.8. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 5.4 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 23.2.

Hurricane Bonnie will move through an environment that will become less favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Bonnie will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 27˚C. It will move under the southeastern part of an upper level ridge over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean. The ridge will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of Bonnie’s circulation. Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear. The wind shear will inhibit intensification. Hurricane Bonnie is likely to weaken slowly during the next 24 hours, when it moves over slightly cooler water. If concentric eyewalls develop and persist, then an eyewall replacement cyclone could cause Bonnie to weaken more quickly. Since the circulation around Hurricane Bonnie is so small, any change in the environment could have a big impact on the intensity of Bonnie.

Hurricane Bonnie will move south of a high pressure system over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Bonnie toward the west-northwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track Hurricane Bonnie will southwest of Baja California during the next several days.

Bonnie Intensifies to a Major Hurricane

Hurricane Bonnie intensified to a major hurricane over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean south of Mexico on Tuesday morning. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Hurricane Bonnie was located at latitude 15.3°N and longitude 104.3°W which put it about 250 miles (400 km) southwest of Zihuatanejo, Mexico. Bonnie was moving toward the west at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 115 m.p.h. (185 km/h) and and there were wind gusts to 135 m.p.h. (230 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 964 mb.

Hurricane Bonnie intensified to a major hurricane southwest of Zihuatanejo on Tuesday morning. A small circular eye with a diameter of 12 miles (19 km) was present at the center of Bonnie’s circulation. The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Hurricane Bonnie. Storms near the core generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the hurricane.

The circulation around Hurricane Bonnie was small. Winds to hurricane force extended out 30 miles (50 km) from the center of Bonnie. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 115 miles (185 km) from the center. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Hurricane Bonnie was 20.6. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 10.0 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 30.6.

Hurricane Bonnie will move through an environment favorable for a major hurricane during the next 24 hours. Bonnie will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28˚C. It will move under the southern side of an upper level ridge over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean. The ridge will produce northeasterly winds that will blow toward the top of Bonnie’s circulation. Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear. The wind shear will inhibit intensification, but Hurricane Bonnie could strengthen a little more during the next 24 hours.

Hurricane Bonnie will move south of a high pressure system over Mexico. The high pressure system will steer Bonnie toward the west-northwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track Hurricane Bonnie will more farther to the southwest of the coast of Mexico.

Hurricane Bonnie Strengthens to Cat. 2

Hurricane Bonnie strengthened to Category 2 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean south of Acapulco, Mexico on Monday afternoon. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Hurricane Bonnie was located at latitude 13.9°N and longitude 100.3°W which put it about 210 miles (335 km) south of Acapulco, Mexico. Bonnie was moving toward the west at 17 m.p.h. (28 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h) and and there were wind gusts to 120 m.p.h. (195 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 978 mb.

Hurricane Bonnie continued to strengthen on Sunday. A small circular eye developed at the center of Bonnie’s circulation. The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Hurricane Bonnie. Storms near the core generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the west of the hurricane.

The circulation around Hurricane Bonnie was small. Winds to hurricane force extended out 25 miles (40 km) from the center of Bonnie. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 90 miles (145 km) from the center. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Hurricane Bonnie was 16.5. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 7.6 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 24.1.

Hurricane Bonnie will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Bonnie will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28˚C. It will move under the southern side of an upper level ridge over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean. The ridge will produce northeasterly winds that will blow toward the top of Bonnie’s circulation. Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear. The wind shear will inhibit intensification, but Hurricane Bonnie could intensify during the next 24 hours. Bonnie could strengthen to a major hurricane on Tuesday.

Hurricane Bonnie will move south of a high pressure system over Mexico. The high pressure system will steer Bonnie toward the west-northwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track Hurricane Bonnie will remain southwest of the coast of Mexico.

Bonnie Intensifies to a Hurricane South of Mexico

Former Tropical Storm Bonnie intensified to a hurricane over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean on Sunday night. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Hurricane Bonnie was located at latitude 13.2°N and longitude 95.5°W which put it about 210 miles (335 km) south of Salina Cruz, Mexico. Bonnie was moving toward the west-northwest at 17 m.p.h. (28 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h) and and there were wind gusts to 95 m.p.h. (150 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 987 mb.

A larger, ragged eye appeared at the center of Hurricane Bonnie on Sunday night. The eye was surrounded by a broken ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Hurricane Bonnie. Storms near the core generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the hurricane. Winds to hurricane force extended out 25 miles (40 km) in the eastern side of Bonnie’s circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 80 miles (130 km) from the center of Bonnie.

Hurricane Bonnie will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 36 hours. Bonnie will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28˚C. It will move under the southern side of an upper level ridge over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean. The ridge will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of Bonnie’s circulation. Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear, but the shear will not be enough to prevent intensification. Hurricane Bonnie will intensify during the next 36 hours. A period of rapid intensification could occur after the ring of thunderstorms around the eye becomes fully formed. Bonnie could strengthen to a major hurricane early next week.

Tropical Storm Bonnie will move south of a high pressure system over Mexico. The high pressure system will steer Bonnie toward the west-northwest during the next 36 hours. On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Bonnie will remain south of the coast of Mexico.

Tropical Storm Bonnie Moves over Eastern North Pacific

Tropical Storm Bonnie moved over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean on Saturday. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Storm Bonnie was located at latitude 11.3°N and longitude 88.0°W which put it about 130 miles (210 km) west-southwest of Managua, Nicaragua. Bonnie was moving toward the west at 16 m.p.h. (26 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1000 mb.

Tropical Storm Bonnie moved across Central America and over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean on Saturday. The center of Bonnie’s circulation moved along the border between Nicaragua and Costa Rica. Bonnie dropped heavy rain on parts of Nicaragua and Costa Rica. It took about 12 hours for Tropical Storm Bonnie to cross Central America. Bonnie’s circulation was intact when it emerged over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean. The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the center of Tropical Storm Bonnie and an eye was visible on conventional and microwave satellite images. A ring of strong thunderstorms surrounded the eye and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Storms near the center of circulation generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical storm. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 70 miles (110 km) from the center of Bonnie.

Tropical Storm Bonnie will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 36 hours. Bonnie will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28˚C. It will move under an upper level ridge over Central America and the Eastern North Pacific Ocean. The upper level winds are weak in the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Storm Bonnie will intensify during the next 36 hours. Bonnie is likely to strengthen to a hurricane by Sunday night. A period of rapid intensification could occur. Bonnie could intensify to a major hurricane early next week.

Tropical Storm Bonnie will move south of a high pressure system over Mexico. The high pressure system will steer Bonnie toward the west-northwest during the next 36 hours. On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Bonnie will remain south of El Salvador and Guatemala.

Tropical Depression Likely to Form South of Gulf of Tehuantepec

A tropical depression is likely to form over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. A broad area of low pressure was located south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec on Wednesday morning. At 8:00 a.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of the broad area of low pressure was located at latitude 12.0°N and longitude 96.0°W which put it about 270 miles (435 km) south of Puerto Angel, Mexico. The broad area of low pressure was moving toward the north at 3 m.p.h. (5 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 30 m.p.h. (50 km/h) and and there were wind gusts to 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1007 mb.

A broad area of low pressure over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec was visible on early morning satellite images. Thunderstorms were forming in bands in the eastern and southern parts of the low pressure system. The thunderstorms were beginning to generate upper level divergence that was pumping mass away from the system. The strongest winds were occurring in the bands of thunderstorms.

The broad area of low pressure will be in an area favorable for the development of a tropical depression during the next several days. The low pressure system will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30˚C. It will be in an area where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.. The circulation around the low pressure system is likely to organize gradually and a tropical depression is likely to form later this week. After a tropical depression forms, it could move north toward Mexico and strengthen.