Tag Archives: Mexico

Tropical Storm Sara Moves Over Belize

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Tropical Storm Sara moved over Belize on Sunday morning.  At 10:00 a.m. EST on Sunday the center of Tropical Storm Sara was located at latitude 17.1°N and longitude 88.4°W which put the center about 30 miles (50 km) south-southwest of Belize City, Belize.  Sara was moving toward the west-northwest at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1001 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the Caribbean coast of Guatemala.  A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the coast of Belize.  A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Puerto Costa Maya to Chetumal, Mexico.

The center of Tropical Storm Sara made landfall on the coast of Belize south of Belize City on Sunday morning.  The circulation around Tropical Storm Sara was small.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 80 miles (130 km) in the northern side of Sara’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 35 miles (55 km) in the southern side of Tropical Storm Sara.

Tropical Storm Sara will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system over the western Atlantic Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Sara  toward the northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, the center of Tropical Storm Sara will move across Belize on Sunday.  Sara will move over the southern part of the Yucatan Peninsula by Sunday night.

Tropical Storm Sara will bring gusty winds and heavy rain to Belize on Sunday.  Heave rain is likely to cause floods in some locations.  Tropical Storm Sara will also drop heavy rain on parts of northern Guatemala and southeastern Mexico.

Rafael Weakens to a Tropical Storm

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Former Hurricane Rafael weakened to a tropical storm over the central Gulf of Mexico on Friday night.  At 4:00 a.m. EST on Saturday the center of Tropical Storm Rafael was located at latitude 25.0°N and longitude 90.8°W which put the center about 265 miles (425 km) north-northwest of Progreso, Mexico.  Rafael was moving toward the west-northwest at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 992 mb.

Former Hurricane Rafael continued to weaken over the central Gulf of Mexico on Friday night. An upper level low over the central U.S. was producing southwesterly winds that were blowing toward the top of Rafael’s circulation.  Those winds were causing moderate vertical wind shear. Drier air was being pulled into the western side of Tropical Storm Rafael.  The combination of moderate vertical wind shear and drier air caused Rafael to continue to weaken.

The moderate vertical wind shear was also affecting the structure of Tropical Storm Rafael.  New thunderstorms were still developing near the center of Rafael’s circulation.  Thunderstorms were also still occurring in bands in the eastern side of Tropical Storm Rafael.  Bands in the western side of Rafael’s circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.   Storms near the center of Rafael generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the east of the tropical storm.

The circulation around Tropical Storm Rafael was small. Wind to tropical storm force extended out 90 miles (145 km) from the center of Rafael’s circulation.

Tropical Storm Rafael will move through an environment mostly unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Rafael will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  However the upper level low over the central U.S. will continue to cause moderate vertical wind shear.  More drier air will also get pulled into the western side of Rafael’s circulation.  The combination of moderate vertical wind shear and drier air is likely to cause Tropical Storm Rafael to weaken gradually during the next 24 hours.  Rafael could maintain its intensity today, if the wind shear does not get any stronger.

The winds steering Tropical Storm Rafael will be weak during the next 24 hours. As a result, on its anticipated track, Rafael will meander over the central Gulf of Mexico during the weekend.

Hurricane Rafael Weakens Over Gulf of Mexico

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Hurricane Rafael weakened over the central Gulf of Mexico on Friday.  At 4:00 p.m. EST on Friday the center of Hurricane Rafael was located at latitude 24.6°N and longitude 89.7°W which put the center about 230 miles (365 km) north of Progreso, Mexico.  Rafael was moving toward the west at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 120 m.p.h. (195 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 967 mb.

Hurricane Rafael started to weaken over the central Gulf of Mexico on Friday afternoon.  An upper level low over the central U.S. was producing southwesterly winds that were blowing toward the top of Rafael’s circulation.  Those winds were causing moderate vertical wind shear.  Drier air was being pulled into the western side of Hurricane Rafael.  The combination of moderate vertical wind shear and drier air caused Hurricane Rafael to start to weaken.

The moderate vertical wind shear was also affecting the structure of Hurricane Rafael.  An eye was no longer visible at the center of Rafael’s circulation.  The western part of the former eyewall weakened and that part of the eyewall consisted of showers and lower clouds.  Thunderstorms were still occurring in the eastern part of the former eyewall.  Thunderstorms were also still occurring in bands in the eastern side of Hurricane Rafael.  Storms near the center of Rafael generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the east of the hurricane.

The circulation around Hurricane Rafael was small.  Winds to hurricane force extended out 30 miles (50 km) from the center of Rafael’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 90 miles (145 km) from the center of Hurricane Rafael.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Hurricane Rafael was 16.5. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 10.5 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 27.0.  Hurricane Rafael was similar in intensity to Hurricane Idalia when Idalia hit Florida in 2023.  Rafael was bigger than Idalia was.

Rafael will move into an environment unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Rafael will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  However the upper level low over the central U.S. will continue to cause moderate vertical wind shear.  More drier air will also get pulled into the western side of Rafael’s circulation.  The combination of moderate vertical wind shear and drier air will cause Hurricane Rafael to weaken during the next 24 hours.

The winds steering Hurricane Rafael will weaken during the next 24 hours.  As a result, on its anticipated track, Hurricane Rafael will meander over the central Gulf of Mexico during the weekend.

Hurricane Rafael Moves Over Southeastern Gulf of Mexico

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Hurricane Rafael moved over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico on Thursday.  At 4:00 p.m. EST on Thursday the center of Hurricane Rafael was located at latitude 24.7°N and longitude 86.2°W which put the center about 325 miles (520 km) northeast of Progreso, Mexico.  Rafael was moving toward the west-northwest at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 105 m.p.h. (165 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 125 m.p.h. (200 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 968 mb.

Hurricane Rafael weakened a little on Wednesday night as it moved across western Cuba.  Rafael strengthened again on Thursday when it moved over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico.  The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the center of Rafael’s circulation and an eye formed again at the center of Hurricane Rafael.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Rafael’s circulation.  Storms near the core of Rafael generated upper level divergence that pumped more mass away from the hurricane. The removal of more mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The circulation around Hurricane Rafael was small.  Wind to hurricane force extended out 30 miles (50 km) from the center of Rafael’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 105 miles (165 km) from the center of Hurricane Rafael.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Hurricane Rafael was 17.8.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 10.0 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 27.8.  Hurricane Rafael was similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Zeta when Zeta hit Louisiana in 2020.

Rafael will move into an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Rafael will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move under the eastern periphery of a large upper level trough that extends from the North Central U.S. to the Southwest U.S.  The upper level trough will produce southwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Rafael’s circulation. Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear, but the wind shear may not be enough to prevent intensification.  Hurricane Rafael could intensify during the next 24 hours.  The wind shear is likely to increase during the weekend and Rafael is likely to weaken when the shear increases.

Hurricane Rafael will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system that extends from the western Atlantic Ocean to the Gulf of Mexico.  The high pressure system will steer Rafael toward the west during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Hurricane Rafael will move toward the central Gulf of Mexico.

Tropical Depression Fourteen-E Forms Southwest of Mexico

Tropical Depression Fourteen-E formed over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean southwest of Mexico on Wednesday morning.  At 10:00 a.m. EST on Wednesday the center of Tropical Depression Fourteen-E was located at latitude 23.1°N and longitude 106.1°W which put the center about 490 miles (790 km) west-southwest of Acapulco, Mexico.  The tropical depression was moving toward the northeast at 3 m.p.h. (5 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1006 mb.

A low pressure system over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean southwest of Mexico strengthened on Wednesday morning and the U.S. National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Depression Fourteen-E.  More thunderstorms formed near the center of the tropical depression.  More thunderstorms also developed in bands revolving around the center of the depression’s circulation.  Storms near the center of circulation generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical depression.

Tropical Depression Fourteen-E will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  The tropical depression will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move under the eastern side of an upper level trough west of Baja California.  The upper level trough will produce southwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of the depression’s circulation.  Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear.  The wind shear will inhibit intensification, but the shear may not be enough to prevent some intensification.  Tropical Depression Fourteen-E could intensify to a tropical storm during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Depression Fourteen-E will move around the southern side of a high pressure system over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean west of Mexico.  The high pressure system will strengthen during the next 24 hours.  When the high pressure system strengthens it will push the tropical depression toward the southeast.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Depression Fourteen-E will remain west of Mexico during the next several days.

Kristy Rapidly Intensifies to a Major Hurricane South of Baja California

Hurricane Kristy rapidly intensified to a major hurricane over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean south of Baja California on Wednesday morning.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Hurricane Kristy was located at latitude 14.3°N and longitude 113.9°W which put the center about 650 miles (1045 km) south-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California.  Kristy was moving toward the west at 20 m.p.h. (32 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 125 m.p.h. (200 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 150 m.p.h. (240 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 954 mb.

Hurricane Kristy continued to intensify rapidly on Wednesday morning.  A small circular eye was at the center of Kristy’s circulation.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Hurricane Kristy.  Storms near the core generated strong upper level divergence that pumped large amounts of mass away from the hurricane.  The removal of large amounts of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease rapidly.

The circulation around Hurricane Kristy was small.  Winds to hurricane force extended out 20 miles (30 km) from the center of Kristy’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 80 miles (130 km) from the center of Hurricane Kristy.

Hurricane Kristy will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Kristy will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move under the axis of an upper level ridge over the Eastern North Pacific.  The upper level winds are weak near the axis of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Hurricane Kristy will intensify during the next 24 hours.  Kristy could continue to intensify rapidly. Hurricane Kristy could to strengthen to Category 5 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale on Thursday.

Hurricane Kristy will move around the southern side of a high pressure system over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean.  The high pressure system will continue to steer Kristy toward the west during the next 24 h.  On its anticipated track, Hurricane Kristy will continue to move farther away from Mexico.

Kristy Rapidly Intensifies to a Hurricane

Former Tropical Storm Kristy rapidly intensified to a hurricane over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean south of Baja California on Tuesday.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Hurricane Kristy was located at latitude 14.7°N and longitude 108.5°W which put the center about 550 miles (890 km) south of the southern tip of Baja California.  Kristy was moving toward the west at 18 m.p.h. (30 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 988 mb.

Former Tropical Storm Kristy rapidly intensified to a hurricane on Tuesday.  The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the center of Kristy’s circulation.  A circular eye formed at the center of Hurricane Kristy.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Kristy’s circulation.  Storms near the center of Kristy generated strong upper level divergence that pumped large quantities of mass away from the hurricane.  The removal of large amounts of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease rapidly.

The circulation around Hurricane Kristy became more symmetrical on Tuesday.  Winds to hurricane force extended out 20 miles (30 km) in the northeastern quadrant of Kristy’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 70 miles (110 km) from the center of Hurricane Kristy.

Hurricane Kristy will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Kristy will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move under the axis of an upper level ridge over the Eastern North Pacific. The upper level winds are weak near the axis of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Hurricane Kristy will intensify during the next 24 hours.  Kristy could continue to intensify rapidly.  Hurricane Kristy is likely to strengthen to a major hurricane on Wednesday.

Hurricane Kristy will move around the southern side of a high pressure system over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean.  The high pressure system will continue to steer Kristy toward the west during the next 24 h.  On its anticipated track, Hurricane Kristy will continue to move farther away from Mexico.

Tropical Storm Kristy Forms South of Mexico

Tropical Storm Kristy formed over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean south of Mexico on Monday.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Storm Kristy was located at latitude 13.5°N and longitude 102.0°W which put the center about 275 miles (440 km) south-southwest of Acapulco, Mexico.  Kristy was moving toward the west at 17 m.p.h. (28 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1005 mb.

A low pressure system over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean south of Mexico strengthened on Monday and the U.S. National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Storm Kristy.  More thunderstorms formed near the center of Kristy’s circulation.  Thunderstorms also developed in bands revolving around the center of Tropical Storm Kristy.  Storms near the center of Kristy began to generate upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical storm.

The distribution of wind speeds in Tropical Storm Kristy was asymmetrical.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 60 miles (95 km) in the northern side of Kristy’s circulation.  The winds in the southern part of Tropical Storm Kristy were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Storm Kristy will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Kristy will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move under the axis of an upper level ridge over the Eastern North Pacific.  The upper level winds are weak near the axis of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Storm Kristy will intensify during the next 24 hours.  Kristy is likely to strengthen to a hurricane by the middle of this week.

Tropical Storm Kristy will move around the southern side of a high pressure system over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Kristy toward the west during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Kristy will move away from the coast of Mexico.

Hurricane Oscar Brings Wind and Rain to Southeastern Bahamas

Hurricane Oscar brought wind and rain to the Southeastern Bahamas early on Sunday.  At 8:00 a.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Hurricane Oscar was located at latitude 20.8°N and longitude 73.6°W which put the center about 20 miles (30 km) southwest of  Great Inagua.  Oscar was moving toward the west-southwest at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 95 m.p.h. (150 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 986 mb.

Hurricane Warnings are in effect for the Southeastern Bahamas.  Hurricane Warnings are also in effect for the North Coast of Cuban province of Holguin and the North Coast of Cuban province of Guantanamo to Punta Maisi.

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for the North Coast of Cuban province of  Las Tunas.

Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect for the South Coast of Cuban province of Guantanamo and the North Coast of Cuban province of Las Tunas.

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the North Coast of Cuban province of Camaguey.

The center of Hurricane Oscar passed over Great Inagua early on Sunday.  A very small eye with a diameter of 4 miles (6 km) was at the center of Oscar’s circulation.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Short bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Hurricane Oscar.  Storms near the center of Oscar generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the hurricane.

The circulation around Hurricane Oscar was very small.  Winds to hurricane force extended out 5 miles (8 km) on the northern side of Oscar’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 45 miles (75 km) from the center of Hurricane Oscar.

Hurricane Oscar will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next few hours.  Oscar will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move under the southeastern end of an upper level ridge over Cuba.  The upper level ridge will produce northeasterly winds that will blow toward the top of Oscar’s circulation.  Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear.  The wind shear may be strong enough to prevent intensification.  Hurricane Oscar is likely to maintain its intensity during the next few hours.

Hurricane Oscar will move around the southern side of a high pressure system over the western Atlantic Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Oscar toward the west-southwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Hurricane Oscar will reach eastern Cuba on Sunday afternoon.

Hurricane Oscar will continue to strong winds and locally heavy rain to the Southeastern Bahamas during the next  few hours. Oscar will also bring strong winds and heavy rain to eastern Cuba on Sunday night.  Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Elsewhere, Tropical Depression Nadine was moving across southern Mexico. At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Depression Nadine was located at latitude 16.8°N and longitude 91.8°W which put the center about 85 miles (135 km) east of Tuxtla Gutierrez, Mexico. Nadine was moving toward the west-southwest at 8 m.p.h. (14 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 30 m.p.h. (50 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1006 mb.

Hurricane Oscar Develops Rapidly Southeast of the Bahamas

Hurricane Oscar developed rapidly over the Atlantic Ocean southeast of the Bahamas on Saturday afternoon.  At 2:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Hurricane Oscar was located at latitude 21.4°N and longitude 70.6°W which put the center about 165 miles (265 km) east-southeast of the Southeastern Bahamas.  Oscar was moving toward the west at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 95 m.p.h. (150 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 989 mb.

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for the Turks and Caicos, and the Southeastern Bahamas.

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for the Cuban provinces of Guantanamo, Holguin, and Las Tunas.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the Cuban provinces of Guantanamo, Holguin and Las Tunas.

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for the Cuban province of Camaguey.

A U.S. Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter reconnaissance plane found that a low pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean southeast of the Bahamas had rapidly developed into a hurricane on Saturday afternoon.  Based on data gather by the reconnaissance flight, the U.S. National Hurricane Center designated the system as Hurricane Oscar.

The circulation around Hurricane Oscar was very small.  A very small eye with a diameter of 4 miles (6 km) was at the center of Oscar’s circulation.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Short bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Hurricane Oscar.  Storms near the center of Oscar generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the hurricane.

The circulation around Hurricane Oscar was very small.  Winds to hurricane force extended out 5 miles (8 km) on the northern side of Oscar’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 45 miles (75 km) from the center of Hurricane Oscar.

Hurricane Oscar will move through an environment mostly favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Oscar will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C.  It will move under the eastern end of an upper level ridge over the Bahamas.  The upper level ridge will produce northeasterly winds that will blow toward the top of Oscar’s circulation.  Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear, but the wind shear will not be enough to prevent intensification.  Hurricane Oscar is likely to intensify during the next 24 hours.

Hurricane Oscar will move around the southern side of a high pressure system over the western Atlantic Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Oscar toward the west during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Hurricane Oscar will move over the Turks and Caicos and the Southeastern Bahamas.  Oscar could approach eastern Cuba on Sunday night.

Hurricane Oscar will bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to the Turks and Caicos and the Southeastern Bahamas.  Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Elsewhere, Tropical Storm Nadine brought strong winds and heavy rain to parts of Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula.  At 2:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Storm Nadine was located at latitude 17.6°N and longitude 88.5°W which put the center about 20 miles (30 km) west-northwest of Belize City, Belize.  Nadine was moving toward the west at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1003 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Belize City,, Belize to Cancun, Mexico.  The Tropical Storm Warning includes Cozumel.