Tag Archives: Mexico

Vance Weakens to a Tropical Depression

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Former Tropical Storm Vance weakened to a tropical depression on Wednesday afternoon.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Depression Vance was located at latitude 20.1°N and longitude 109.1°W which put the center about 220 miles (355 km) west of Cabo Corrientes, Mexico.  Vance was moving toward the north at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1006 mb.

Former Tropical Storm Vance weakened to a tropical depression on Wednesday afternoon.  An upper level trough that was west of Baja California was producing strong southwesterly winds that were blowing across the top of Vance’s circulation.  Those winds were causing strong vertical wind shear.

The strong vertical wind shear was causing the distribution of thunderstorms in Tropical Depression Vance to be very asymmetrical.  Thunderstorms were still occurring in bands in the northeastern part of Vance’s circulation.  Bands in the other parts of Tropical Depression Vance consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.

Storms near the center of Vance generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the northeast of the tropical depression.  The removal of mass in the upper levels was less than the convergence of mass in the lower levels of the atmosphere.  So, the surface pressure increased on Wednesday.

Tropical Depression Vance will move through an environment that will be unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Vance will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  However, the upper level trough that is west of Baja California will continue to cause strong vertical wind shear.  Tropical Depression Vance will continue to weaken on Thursday because of the strong vertical wind shear.

Tropical Depression Vance will move around the western end of a high pressure system that is over Mexico.  The high pressure system will steer Vance slowly toward the north-northeast during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Depression Vance will move toward the west coast of Mexico.

Tropical Storm Vance Meanders Southwest of Mexico

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Tropical Storm Vance meandered slowly over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean southwest of Mexico on Monday.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Storm Vance was located at latitude 15.5°N and longitude 106.3°W which put the center about 275 miles (445 km) south-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico.  Vance was moving toward the west at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 999 mb.

Tropical Storm Vance continued to weaken on Monday as it meandered southwest of Mexico.  An upper level trough over Baja California continued to produce southwesterly winds that were blowing toward the top of Vance’s circulation.  Those winds caused strong vertical wind shear.  The strong vertical wind shear caused Vance to continue to weaken.

The strong vertical wind shear also continued to cause the distribution of thunderstorms in Tropical Storm Vance to be asymmetrical.  Thunderstorms were still occurring in bands in the eastern part of Vance’s circulation.  Bands in the western part of Tropical Storm Vance consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Storms near the center of Vance generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the northeast of the tropical storm.  The removal of mass in the upper levels was less than the convergence of mass in the lower levels of the atmosphere.  So, the surface pressure continued to increase on Monday.

The size of the circulation around Tropical Storm Vance decreased on Monday as Vance continued to weaken.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 105 miles (165 km) from the center of Vance’s circulation.

Tropical Storm Vance will move around the western end of a high pressure system that is over Mexico.  The high pressure system will steer Vance slowly toward the north during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Vance will remain southwest of Mexico for the next several days.

Vance Weakens to a Tropical Storm

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Former Hurricane Vance weakened to a tropical storm on Sunday as it moved over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean south of Mexico.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Storm Vance was located at latitude 15.0°N and longitude 104.7°W which put the center about 275 miles (445 km) south of Manzanillo, Mexico.  Vance was moving toward the northwest at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 995 mb.

Former Hurricane Vance weakened to a tropical storm on Sunday.  An upper level trough over Baja California was producing southwesterly winds that were blowing toward the top of Vance’s circulation.  Those winds were causing strong vertical wind shear.  The strong vertical wind shear caused Vance to weaken to a tropical storm.

The strong vertical wind shear also caused the distribution of thunderstorms in Tropical Storm Vance to become asymmetrical.  Thunderstorms were still occurring in bands in the northeastern part of Vance’s circulation.  Bands in the other parts of Tropical Storm Vance consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Storms near the center of Vance generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the northeast of the tropical storm.  The removal of mass in the upper levels was less than the convergence of mass in the lower levels of the atmosphere.  So, the surface pressure increased on Sunday.

The distribution of wind speeds in Tropical Storm Vance was also asymmetrical.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 150 miles (240 km) in the northern side of Vance’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 80 miles in the southern side of Tropical Storm Vance.

Tropical Storm Vance will move through an environment that will be unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Vance will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  However, the upper level trough over Baja California will continue to cause strong vertical wind shear.  Tropical Storm Vance is likely to continue to weaken on Monday because of the strong vertical wind shear.

Tropical Storm Vance will move around the western end of a high pressure system that is over Mexico.  The high pressure system will steer Vance slowly toward the northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Vance will remain southwest of Mexico for the next several days.

Vance Strengthens to a Hurricane

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Former Tropical Storm Vance strengthened to a hurricane as it moved over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean south of Mexico on Thursday night.  At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Friday the center of Hurricane Vance was located at latitude 10.9°N and longitude 102.1°W which put the center about 580 miles (930 km) south-southeast of Manzanillo, Mexico.  Vance was moving toward the north-northwest at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 982 mb.

Former Tropical Storm Vance strengthened to a hurricane on Thursday night.

The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the center of Hurricane Vance.  An eye appeared to be forming at the center of Vance’s circulation.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Hurricane Vance.  Storms near the center generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the hurricane.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The strongest winds were occurring in the northern side of Hurricane Vance.  Winds to hurricane force extended out 35 miles (55 km) in the northern half of Vance’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 200 miles (320 km) from the center of Hurricane Vance.

Hurricane Vance will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Vance will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Hurricane Vance will intensify during the next 24 hours.  Vance could intensify rapidly at times.  Vance could strengthen to a major by the weekend.

Hurricane Vance will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system that is over southern Mexico.  The high pressure system will steer Vance toward the north-northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Hurricane Vance will gradually move closer to the west coast of Mexico.

Tropical Storm Vance Forms South of Mexico

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Tropical Storm Vance formed over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean south of Mexico on Wednesday.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Storm Vance was located at latitude 9.4°N and longitude 99.8°W which put the center about 520 miles (835 km) south of Acapulco, Mexico.  Vance was moving toward the west at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1003 mb.

A low pressure system over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean south of Mexico strengthened on Wednesday and the U.S. National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Storm Vance.

More thunderstorms developed in bands revolving around the center of Tropical Storm Vance on Wednesday afternoon.  Storms near the center of Vance’s circulation began to generate upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical storm.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The strongest winds were occurring in the northern side of Tropical Storm Vance.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 70 miles (110 km) in the northern side of Vance’s circulation.  The winds in the southern part of Tropical Storm Vance were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Storm Vance will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Vance will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Storm Vance will intensify during the next 24 hours.  Vance could strengthen to a hurricane on Thursday.

Tropical Storm Vance will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system that is over southern Mexico.  The high pressure system will steer Vance toward the northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Vance will start to move closer to the west coast of Mexico on Thursday.

Hurricane Trudy Rapidly Weakens

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Hurricane Trudy weakened rapidly on Sunday evening as it moved over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean west of Mexico.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Hurricane Trudy was located at latitude 19.7°N and longitude 107.6°W which put the center about 130 miles (215 km) west-southwest of Cabo Corrientes, Mexico.  Trudy was moving toward the northwest at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 95 m.p.h. (150 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 984 mb.

An upper level trough that was over Baja California was producing strong westerly winds that were blowing toward the top of Hurricane Trudy.  Those winds were causing strong vertical wind shear.  The strong vertical wind shear was causing Trudy to weaken rapidly on Sunday evening.  The strong upper level winds also blew the tops off of many of the thunderstorms in Hurricane Trudy.  There was much less upper level divergence that pumped less mass away from the hurricane.  The removal of mass in the upper levels was much less than the convergence of mass in the lower levels of the atmosphere.  So, the surface pressure started to increase rapidly.

The size of the circulation around Hurricane Trudy was getting smaller on Sunday evening.  Winds to hurricane force extended our 25 miles (40 km) from the center of Trudy’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 90 miles (145 km) from the center of Hurricane Trudy.

Hurricane Trudy will move through an environment that will be unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Trudy will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C.  However, the upper level trough over Baja California will continue to cause strong vertical wind shear.  The strong vertical wind shear will cause Hurricane Trudy to weaken to a tropical storm on Monday.

Since the strong vertical wind shear blew the tops off of many of the thunderstorms in Hurricane Trudy, Trudy will be steered by the winds lower in the atmosphere.  A high pressure system over northern Mexico will steer Trudy toward the west during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Hurricane Trudy will move farther away from Mexico on Monday.

Hurricane Trudy Moves Closer to Mexico

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Hurricane Trudy moved closer to the west coast of Mexico on Saturday.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Hurricane Trudy was located at latitude 17.5°N and longitude 105.0°W which put the center about 115 miles (185 km) south-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico.  Trudy was moving toward the northwest at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 120 m.p.h. (195 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 976 mb.

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Manzanillo to Cabo Corrientes, Mexico.

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from Manzanillo to Punta San Telmo, Mexico.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Manzanillo to Lazaro Cardenas, Mexico.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Cabo Corrientes to San Blas, Mexico.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Las Islas Marias.

Hurricane Trudy appeared to go through an eyewall replacement cycle during the past 24 hours.

A circular eye with a diameter of 45 miles (75 km) was at the center of Trudy’s circulation.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Trudy’s circulation.  Storms near the core of Trudy generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the hurricane.  The removal of mass in the upper levels was less than the convergence of mass in the lower levels of the atmosphere.  So the surface pressure increased on Saturday.

The distribution of wind speeds in Hurricane Trudy was fairly symmetrical.  Winds to hurricane force extended out 35 miles (55 km) from the center of Trudy’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 140 miles (225 km) from the center of Hurricane Trudy.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Hurricane Trudy is 16.5.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 12.6 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 29.1.  Hurricane Trudy is similar in intensity to Hurricane Idalia when Idalia hit Florida in 2023.  Trudy is larger than Isaias was.

Hurricane Trudy will move through an environment that will be somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Trudy will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C.  It will move under the southeastern part of an upper level trough that is near Baja California.  The upper level trough will produce westerly winds that will blow toward the top of Trudy’s circulation.  Those winds will cause the vertical wind shear to increase.  Hurricane Trudy could intensify on Sunday if the vertical wind shear does not increase too much.

Hurricane Trudy will move around the western side of a high pressure system that is over Mexico.  The high pressure system will steer Trudy toward the northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, the center of Hurricane Trudy will approach the west coast of Mexico between Manzanillo and Cabo Corrientes.

The center of Hurricane Trudy is forecast to remain west of Mexico.  However, bands in the eastern side of Trudy’s circulation will bring strong winds and heavy rain to the west coast of Mexico between Manzanillo and Cabo Corrientes.  Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations.

Trudy Intensifies to a Major Hurricane

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Hurricane Trudy intensified to a major hurricane on Thursday night as it moved over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean south of Mexico.  At 8:00 a.m. EDT on Friday the center of Hurricane Trudy was located at latitude 14.5°N and longitude 102.5°W which put the center about 240 miles (385 km) southwest of Acapulco, Mexico.  Trudy was moving toward the northwest at 6 m.p.h. (15 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 120 m.p.h. (195 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 140 m.p.h. (225 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 956 mb.

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from Punta San Telmo to Cabo Corrientes, Mexico.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Manzanillo to Zihuatanejo, Mexico.

Hurricane Trudy intensified to a major hurricane on Thursday night.

A circular eye with a diameter of 17 miles (28 km) was at the center of Hurricane Trudy.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Trudy’s circulation.  Storms near the core of Trudy generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the hurricane.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

Winds to hurricane force extended out 30 miles (50 km) from the center of Hurricane Trudy.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 140 miles (225 km) from the center of Trudy’ circulation.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Hurricane Trudy is 22.1.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 20.3 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 42.4.  Hurricane Trudy is similar in intensity to Hurricane Milton when Milton hit Florida in 2024.  Trudy is not quite as large as Milton was.

Hurricane Trudy will move through an environment that will be favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Trudy will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Hurricane Trudy will intensify during the next 24 hours.

Hurricane Trudy will move around the western side of a high pressure system that is over Mexico.  The high pressure system will steer Trudy toward the northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Hurricane Trudy will move closer to the coast of southwestern Mexico.

Elsewhere over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean, Tropical Storm Simon was weakening south of Baja California.  At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Storm Simon was located at latitude 20.0°N and longitude 108.8°W which put the center about 210 miles (335 km) south-southeast of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico.  Simon was moving toward the northwest at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1002 mb.

Trudy Strengthens to a Hurricane

Former Tropical Storm Trudy strengthened to a hurricane on Wednesday night as it moved over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean south of Mexico.  At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Hurricane Trudy was located at latitude 12.9°N and longitude 101.6°W which put the center about 300 miles (480 km) south-southwest of Acapulco, Mexico.  Trudy was moving toward the northwest at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 989 mb.

Former Tropical Storm Trudy strengthened to a hurricane on Wednesday night.

Tall thunderstorms were occurring near the center of Hurricane Trudy.  Thunderstorms were also occurring in bands revolving around the center of Trudy’s circulation.  Storms near the center of Trudy generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the hurricane.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The strongest winds were occurring in the northern side of Hurricane Trudy.  Winds to hurricane force extended out 25 miles (40 km) in the northern side of Trudy’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 115 miles (185 km) from the center of Hurricane Trudy.

Hurricane Trudy will move through an environment that will be favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Trudy will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Hurricane Trudy will intensify during the next 24 hours.  Trudy could rapidly intensify to a major hurricane by early on Friday.

Hurricane Trudy will move around the western side of a high pressure system that is over Mexico.  The high pressure system will steer Trudy toward the west-northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Hurricane Trudy will move closer to the coast of southwestern Mexico.

Elsewhere over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean, Tropical Storm Simon was still meandering west of Mexico.  At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Storm Simon was located at latitude 19.2°N and longitude 108.5°W which put the center about 200 miles (320 km) west-southwest of Cabo Corrientes, Mexico.  Simon was stationary.  The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 996 mb.

Hurricane Simon Meanders West of Mexico

Hurricane Simon meandered over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean west of Mexico on Tuesday.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Hurricane Simon was located at latitude 20.1°N and longitude 107.6°W which put the center about 125 miles (200 km) west of Cabo Corrientes, Mexico.  Simon was moving toward the west at 2 m.p.h. (3 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 110 m.p.h. (175 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 130 m.p.h. (210 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 965 mb.

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for Las Islas Marias.

Hurricane Simon strengthened on Tuesday evening as it meandered just to the west of Mexico.

A very small circular eye with a diameter of 6 miles (10 km) was at the center of Hurricane Simon.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Short bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Simon’s circulation.  Storms near the core of Simon generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the hurricane.  The removal of mass in the upper levels was greater than the convergence of mass in the lower levels of the atmosphere.  So, the surface pressure decreased on Tuesday evening.

The circulation around Hurricane Simon was very small.  Winds to hurricane force extended out 15 miles (25 km) from the center of Simon’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 35 miles (55 km) from the center of Hurricane Simon.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Hurricane Simon is 19.2.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 4.7 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 23.9.  Hurricane Simon is similar in intensity to Hurricane Zeta when Zeta hit Louisiana in 2020.  Simon is much smaller than Zeta was.

Hurricane Simon will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 12 hours.  Simon will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C.  It will move under the middle of an upper level ridge that is over Mexico and the Eastern North Pacific Ocean.  The upper level winds are weak near the middle of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Hurricane Simon could intensify back to a major hurricane during the next 12 hours.  Simon could meander back over cooler water it has mixed to the surface later on Wednesday.  If Simon meanders over that cooler water, then it is likely to weaken, because it will extract less energy from the ocean.

Hurricane Simon will be in an area where the steering winds are weak during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Hurricane Simon will continue to meander slowly west of Mexico on Wednesday.

Elsewhere over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean, Tropical Storm Trudy formed south of Mexico.

At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Storm Trudy was located at latitude 20.1°N and longitude 107.6°W which put the center about 440 miles (705 km) south-southeast of Acapulco, Mexico.  Trudy was moving toward the northwest at 10 m.p.h. 165 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1004 mb.