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Hurricane Melissa Batters Eastern Cuba

Strong winds in Hurricane Melissa battered eastern Cuba early on Wednesday.  At 8:00 a.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Hurricane Melissa was located at latitude 20.6°N and longitude 75.7°W which put the center about 45 miles (75 km) northwest of Guantanamo, Cuba.  Melissa was moving toward the north-northeast at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 105 m.p.h. (165 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 125 m.p.h. (200 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 968 mb.

Hurricane Warnings are in effect for the Cuban provinces of Granma, Santiago de Cuba, Guantanamo, Holguin, and Las Tunas.

Hurricane Warnings are in effect for the Central Bahamas and the Southeastern Bahamas.

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for Bermuda.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Haiti.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the Cuban province of Camaguey.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the Turks and Caicos.

After leaving a trail of destruction in Jamaica, Hurricane Melissa battered eastern Cuba early on Wednesday.  Melissa was still a major hurricane at the time is made the center of circulation landfall in the province of Santiago de Cuba.  Melissa started to weaken slowly again after the center moved over land.

Hurricane Melissa was still a powerful storm on Wednesday morning.  Winds to hurricane force extended out 30 miles (50 km) from the center of Melissa’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 185 miles (300 km) in the eastern half of Melissa’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 105 miles (165 km) in the western side of Hurricane Melissa.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Hurricane Melissa at the time of landfall was 17.8.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 11.9 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 29.7. Hurricane Melissa was similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Sally when Sally hit South Alabama in 2020.

Hurricane Melissa will move through an environment marginally favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Melissa will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C.  It will move under the southeastern part of an upper level trough over the eastern U.S.  The upper level trough will produce southwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Melissa’s circulation.  Those winds will cause the vertical wind shear to increase.  The vertical wind shear will inhibit intensification.  Hurricane Melissa is likely to maintain its intensity during the next 24 hours after it moves northeast of Cuba.

The upper level trough will steer Hurricane Melissa toward the northeast during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Melissa will move northeast of Cuba during the next few hours.  Hurricane Melissa will move over the Bahamas later today.  Melissa will be near Bermuda on Thursday night.

Hurricane Melissa will continue to bring strong winds and heavy rain to eastern Cuba during the next few hours.  Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some location.  Widespread electricity outages are likely in eastern Cuba.  Melissa will also bring strong winds and heavy rain to the Bahamas later today.

Hurricane Melissa Hits Jamaica

Hurricane Melissa hit Jamaica on Tuesday.  At 2:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Hurricane Melissa was located at latitude 18.2°N and longitude 78.0°W which put the center about 20 miles 305 km) south-southwest of Montego Bay, Jamaica.  Melissa was moving toward the north-northeast at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 165 m.p.h. (265 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 195 m.p.h. (315 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 899 mb.

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for Jamaica.

Hurricane Warnings are in effect for the Cuban provinces of Granma, Santiago de Cuba, Guantanamo, Holguin, and Las Tunas.

Hurricane Warnings are in effect for the Central Bahamas and the Southeastern Bahamas.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Haiti.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the Cuban province of Camaguey.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the Turks and Caicos.

Hurricane Melissa was at Category 5 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale at the time of landfall.  The maximum sustained wind speed was 185 m.p.h. (300 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 892 mb.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Hurricane Melissa at the time of landfall was 44.1.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 11.4 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 55.5.  Hurricane Melissa was similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Dorian when Dorian hit the Bahamas in 2019.

Hurricane Melissa was still a Category 5 hurricane on Tuesday afternoon.  A circular eye with a diameter of 17 miles (28 km) was at the center of Melissa’s circulation.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Hurricane Melissa.  Storms near the center of Melissa generated strong upper level divergence that pumped large quantities of mass away from the hurricane.  The removal of large amounts of mass in the upper levels was nearly balanced by a strong inflow of mass in the lower levels of the atmosphere.  The near balance of inflow and outflow of mass caused the surface pressure to remain nearly very low during the past few hours.

Winds to hurricane force extended out 30 miles (50 km) from the center of Hurricane Melissa.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 195 miles (315 km) in the eastern half of Melissa’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 90 miles (145 km) in the western side of Hurricane Melissa.

An upper level trough over the southeastern U.S. will steer Hurricane Melissa toward the northeast during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, the core of Hurricane Melissa will l move northeast across Jamaica.  Melissa will reach eastern Cuba early on Wednesday.  Hurricane Melissa will be over the Bahamas on Wednesday evening.

Hurricane Melissa will drop very heavy rain on Jamaica, Haiti and parts of the Dominican Republic.  Very heavy rain is likely to cause catastrophic floods in some locations.  Hurricane Melissa will also produce very strong winds in Jamaica.  Melissa will be capable of causing severe damage.  Widespread electricity outages are likely.  Infrastructure and transportation are likely to be severely damaged.  Melissa could produce a storm surge of up to 16 feet (5 meters) along the south coast of Jamaica.

Hurricane Melissa will also bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to eastern Cuba, the Central and Southeastern Bahamas, and the Turks and Caicos.  Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations.  Widespread electricity outages are also likely in eastern Cuba.

Hurricane Melissa Nears Jamaica

The core of Hurricane Melissa was nearing southwestern Jamaica on Tuesday morning.  At 10:00 a.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Hurricane Melissa was located at latitude 17.7°N and longitude 78.1°W which put the center about 45 miles (75 km) south-southeast of Negril, Jamaica.  Melissa was moving toward the north-northeast at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 185 m.p.h. (300 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 220 m.p.h. (355 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 892 mb.

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for Jamaica.

Hurricane Warnings are in effect for the Cuban provinces of Granma, Santiago de Cuba, Guantanamo, and Holguin.

Hurricane Warnings are in effect for the Central Bahamas and the Southeastern Bahamas.

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for the Turks and Caicos.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Haiti.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the Cuban province of Las Tunas.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the Turks and Caicos.

Winds to tropical storm force were already occurring in Jamaica even though the core of Hurricane Melissa was still southwest of Jamaica.  A weather station at the Norman Manley International Airport in Kingston reported a sustained wind speed of 43 m.p.h. (69 km/h) and a wind gust of 59 m.p.h. (93 km/h).  A weather station at the Sangster International Airport in Montego Bay reported a sustained wind speed of 38 m.p.h. (61 km/h) and a wind gust of 54 m.p.h. (87 km/h).  Heavy rain was already falling over parts of Jamaica.

The core of dangerous Hurricane Melissa was nearing the coast of southwestern Jamaica on Tuesday morning.  A circular eye with a diameter of 12 miles (19 km) was at the center of Melissa’s circulation.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Hurricane Melissa.  Storms near the center of Melissa generated strong upper level divergence that pumped large quantities of mass away from the hurricane.  The removal of large amounts of mass in the upper levels was nearly balanced by a strong inflow of mass in the lower levels of the atmosphere.  The near balance of inflow and outflow of mass caused the surface pressure to remain nearly steady during the past few hours.

Winds to hurricane force extended out 30 miles (50 km) from the center of Hurricane Melissa.   Winds to tropical storm force extended out 195 miles (315 km) in the eastern half of Melissa’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 90 miles (145 km) in the western side of Hurricane Melissa.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Hurricane Melissa is 44.1.  The Hurricane Size index (HSI) is 11.4 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 55.5.  Hurricane Melissa is similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Dorian when Dorian hit the Bahamas in 2019.

Hurricane Melissa will move through an environment favorable for a very powerful hurricane during the few hours until it makes landfall in Jamaica.  Melissa will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Hurricane Melissa is likely to maintain its intensity until it makes landfall in Jamaica unless an eyewall replacement cycle occurs.  If the inner end of a rainband wraps around the existing eye and eyewall, then the formation of concentric eyewalls would cause Melissa to start to weaken.

An upper level trough over the southeastern U.S. will steer Hurricane Melissa toward the northeast during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, the core of Hurricane Melissa will reach southwestern Jamaica on Tuesday morning.  Melissa will move northeast across Jamaica during much of Tuesday.  Hurricane Melissa will reach eastern Cuba early on Wednesday.

Hurricane Melissa will drop very heavy rain on Jamaica, Haiti and parts of the Dominican Republic.  Very heavy rain is likely to cause catastrophic floods in some locations.  Hurricane Melissa will also produce very strong winds in Jamaica.  Melissa will be capable of causing severe damage.  Widespread electricity outages are likely.  Infrastructure and transportation are likely to be severely damaged.  Melissa could produce a storm surge of up to 16 feet (5 meters) along the south coast of Jamaica.

Hurricane Melissa will also bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to eastern Cuba, the Central and Southeastern Bahamas, and the Turks and Caicos.  Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations.  Widespread electricity outages are also likely in eastern Cuba.

Hurricane Melissa Turns Toward Jamaica

Hurricane Melissa started to make a slow turn toward Jamaica on Monday evening.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Hurricane Melissa was located at latitude 16.6°N and longitude 78.5°W which put the center about 150 miles (240 km) southwest of Kingston, Jamaica.  Melissa was moving toward the north-northeast at 2 m.p.h. (3 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 175 m.p.h. (285 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 205 m.p.h. (330 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 903 mb.

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for Jamaica.

Hurricane Warnings are in effect for the Cuban provinces of Granma, Santiago de Cuba, Guantanamo, and Holguin.

Hurricane Warnings are in effect for the Central Bahamas and the Southeastern Bahamas.

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for the Turks and Caicos.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Haiti.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the Cuban province of Las Tunas.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the Turks and Caicos.

Powerful Hurricane Melissa started a slow turn toward Jamaica on Monday evening.  A circular eye with a diameter of 12 miles (19 km) was at the center of Melissa’s circulation.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Hurricane Melissa.  Storms near the center of Melissa generated strong upper level divergence that pumped large quantities of mass away from the hurricane.  The removal of large amounts of mass in the upper levels was nearly balanced by a strong inflow of mass in the lower levels of the atmosphere.  The near balance of inflow and outflow of mass caused the surface pressure to remain nearly steady during the past few hours.

Winds to hurricane force extended out 30 miles (50 km) from the center of Melissa’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 195 miles (315 km) in the eastern half of Hurricane Melissa.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 90 miles (145 km) in the western side of Melissa’s circulation.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Hurricane Melissa is 40.4.  The Hurricane Size index (HSI) is 11.4 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 51.8.  Hurricane Melissa is similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Andrew when Andrew was at its peak intensity in 1992.

Hurricane Melissa will move through an environment favorable for a very powerful hurricane during the next 12 hours.  Melissa will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Hurricane Melissa is likely to maintain its intensity during the next 12 hours unless an eyewall replacement cycle occurs.  If the inner end of a rainband wraps around the existing eye and eyewall, then the formation of concentric eyewalls would cause Melissa to weaken.

An upper level trough over the southeastern U.S. will start to steer Hurricane Melissa toward the northeast during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, the core of Hurricane Melissa will reach southwestern Jamaica on Tuesday morning.  Melissa will move northeast across Jamaica during much of Tuesday.  Hurricane Melissa will reach eastern Cuba early on Wednesday.

Hurricane Melissa will drop very heavy rain on Jamaica, Haiti and parts of the Dominican Republic.  Very heavy rain is likely to cause catastrophic floods in some locations.  Hurricane Melissa will also produce very strong winds in Jamaica.  Melissa will be capable of causing severe damage.  Widespread electricity outages are likely.  Infrastructure and transportation are likely to be severely affected.  Melissa could produce a storm surge of up to 16 feet (5 meters) along the south coast of Jamaica.

Hurricane Melissa will also bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to eastern Cuba, the Central and Southeastern Bahamas, and the Turks and Caicos.  Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations.  Widespread electricity outages are also likely in eastern Cuba.

Hurricane Melissa Intensifies to Cat. 5

Hurricane Melissa intensified to Category 5 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale early on Monday.  At 8:00 a.m. EDT on Monday the center of Hurricane Melissa was located at latitude 16.4°N and longitude 78.0°W which put the center about 135 miles (220 km) southwest of Kingston, Jamaica.  Melissa was moving toward the west at 3 m.p.h. (5 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 160 m.p.h. (260 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 190 m.p.h. (305 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 913 mb.

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for Jamaica.

Hurricane Warnings are in effect for the Cuban provinces of Granma, Santiago de Cuba, Guantanamo, and Holguin.

Hurricane Watches are in effect for the Central Bahamas, the Southeastern Bahamas, and the Turks and Caicos.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Haiti.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the Cuban province of Las Tunas.

Hurricane Melissa intensified to Category 5 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale early on Monday.  A circular eye with a diameter of 12 miles (19 km) was at the center of Melissa’s circulation.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Hurricane Melissa.  Storms near the center of Melissa generated strong upper level divergence that pumped large quantities of mass away from the hurricane.  The removal of large amounts of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease rapidly.

Winds to hurricane force extended out 30 miles (50 km) from the center of Melissa’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 195 miles (315 km) in the eastern half of Hurricane Melissa.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 90 miles (145 km) in the western side of Melissa’s circulation.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Hurricane Melissa is 35.0.  The Hurricane Size index (HSI) is 11.4 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 46.4.  Hurricane Melissa is similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Andrew when Andrew made landfall in South Florida in 1992.

Hurricane Melissa will move through an environment favorable for a very powerful hurricane during the next 24 hours.  Melissa will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Hurricane Melissa could intensify during the next 24 hours unless an eyewall replacement cycle occur.  If the inner end of a rainband wraps around the existing eye and eyewall, then concentric eyewalls could cause Melissa to weaken.

The high pressure system that has been steering Hurricane Melissa slowly toward the west is likely to weaken during the next 24 hours.  When the high pressure system weakens, Melissa will start to move slowly toward the north.  On its anticipated track, the core of Hurricane Melissa will hit Jamaica early on Tuesday.

Hurricane Melissa will drop very heavy rain on Jamaica, Haiti and parts of the Dominican Republic.  Very heavy rain is likely to cause catastrophic floods in some locations.  Hurricane Melissa will also produce very strong winds in Jamaica.  Melissa will be capable of causing severe damage.  Widespread electricity outages are likely.  Melissa could produce a storm surge of up to 16 feet (5 meters) along the south coast of Jamaica.

Hurricane Melissa will also bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to eastern Cuba, the Central and Southeastern Bahamas, and the Turks and Caicos.

Rafael Intensifies to a Hurricane Near Cayman Islands

Former Tropical Storm Rafael intensified to a hurricane near the Cayman Islands on Tuesday evening.  At 10:00 p.m. EST on Tuesday the center of Hurricane Rafael was located at latitude 19.7°N and longitude 80.4°W which put the center about 60 miles (95 km) east-northeast of Grand Cayman.  Rafael was moving toward the northwest at 13 m.p.h. (20 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 95 m.p.h. (150 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 985 mb.

A Hurricane Warning was in effect for Grand Cayman, Little Cayman, and Cayman Brac.  A  Hurricane Warning was in effect for the Cuban provinces of Pinar del Rio, Artemisa, La Habana, Mayabeque, Matanzas, and the Isle of Youth.

A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the Cuban provinces of Villa Clara, Cienfuegos, Sancti Spiritis, and Ciego de Avila.

A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the Florida Keys from Key West to Channel 5 Bridge.  A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the Dry Tortugas.  A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the Cuban provinces of Camaguey and Las Tunas.

Former Tropical Storm Rafael intensified to a hurricane on Tuesday evening.  A circular eye with a diameter of 15 miles (17 km) formed at the center of Rafael’s circulation.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Hurricane Rafael.  Storms near the core of Rafael generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the hurricane.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

Winds to hurricane force extended out 20 miles (30 km) in the northeastern quadrant of Hurricane Rafael.  Wind to tropical storm force extended out 115 miles (185 km) in the eastern side of Rafael’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 60 miles (95 km) in the western side of Hurricane Rafael.

Hurricane Rafael will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Rafael will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move under the middle of an upper level ridge over the Caribbean Sea.  The upper level winds are weak near the middle of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Hurricane Rafael will intensify during the next 24 hours.  Rafael could intensify rapidly at times.

Hurricane Rafael will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system over the western Atlantic Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Rafael toward the northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, the center of Hurricane Rafael will move away from the Cayman Islands.  Rafael is likely to reach western Cuba by Wednesday afternoon.

Hurricane Rafael will continue to bring strong winds and heavy rain to the Cayman Islands for the next few hours.  Heavy rain could cause floods in some locations. Rafael could also cause a storm surge of up to 7 feet (2 meters) in the Cayman Islands.  Hurricane Rafael will bring strong winds and heavy rain to western Cuba.  Strong winds could cause widespread electricity outages in Cuba.  Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.  Rafael could cause a storm surge of up to 10 feet (3 meters) along the south coast of western Cuba.

Tropical Storm Rafael Brings Wind and Rain to Jamaica

Tropical Storm Rafael was bringing wind and rain to Jamaica on Tuesday morning.  The center of Rafael was just southwest of Jamaica.  At 7:00 a.m. EST on Tuesday the center of Tropical Storm Rafael was located at latitude 17.4°N and longitude 78.4°W which put the center about 80 miles (130 km) south-southwest of Montego Bay, Jamaica.  Rafael was moving toward the northwest at 13 m.p.h. (20 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 993 mb.

A Hurricane Warning was in effect for Grand Cayman, Little Cayman, and Cayman Brac.  A  Hurricane Warning was in effect for the Cuban provinces of Pinar del Rio, Artemisa, La Habana, Mayabeque, Matanzas, and the Isle of Youth.

A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for Jamaica. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the Cuban provinces of Villa Clara, Cienfuegos, Sancti Spiritis, and Ciego de Avila.

A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the Florida Keys from Key West to Channel 5 Bridge.  A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the Dry Tortugas.  A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the Cuban provinces of Camaguey and Las Tunas.

Tropical Storm Rafael was strengthening on Tuesday morning as it passed near Jamaica.  The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the western and southern sides of the center of Rafael’s circulation.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Tropical Storm Rafael.  Storms near the center of Rafael generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical storm.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The distribution of wind speeds around Tropical Storm Rafael was asymmetrical.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 105 miles (165 km) in the eastern side of Rafael’s circulation.  The winds in the western side of Tropical Storm Rafael were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Storm Rafael will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Rafael will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move under the middle of an upper level ridge over the Caribbean Sea.  The upper level winds are weak near the middle of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Storm Rafael will intensify during the next 24 hours.  Rafael could intensify rapidly at times.  Tropical Storm Rafael is likely to strengthen to a hurricane by Tuesday night.

Tropical Storm Rafael will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system over the western Atlantic Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Rafael toward the northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, the center of Tropical Rafael will reach the Cayman Islands by Tuesday night.  Rafael is likely to reach western Cuba by Wednesday afternoon.

Tropical Storm Rafael will continue to bring strong winds and heavy rain Jamaica for the rest of Tuesday.  Heavy rain is likely to cause floods in some locations.  Rafael is likely to be a hurricane when it moves over the Cayman Islands.  Rafael will bring strong winds and heavy rain to the Cayman Islands.  It could also cause a storm surge of up to 7 feet (2 meters) in the Cayman Islands.  Rafael will be a hurricane when it reaches western Cuba.  Strong winds could cause widespread electricity outages in Cuba.  Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Depression Strengthens to Tropical Storm Rafael

Former Tropical Depression Eighteen strengthened to Tropical Storm Rafael south of Jamaica on Monday afternoon.  At 4:00 p.m. EST on Monday the center of Tropical Storm Rafael was located at latitude 15.5°N and longitude 76.7°W which put the center about 175 miles (280 km) south of Kingston, Jamaica.  Rafael was moving toward the north at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 997 mb.

A Hurricane Warning was in effect for Grand Cayman, Little Cayman, and Cayman Brac,

A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for Jamaica.

A Hurricane Watch was in effect for the Cuban provinces of Pinar del Rio, Artemisa, La Habana, Mayabeque, Matanzas, and the Isle of Youth.

A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the Florida Keys from Key West to Channel 5 Bridge.  A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the Dry Tortugas.  A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the Cuban provinces of Villa Clara, Cienfuegos, Sancti Spiritis, Ciego de Avila, Camaguey and Las Tunas.

Former Tropical Depression Eighteen strengthened on Monday afternoon and the U.S. National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Storm Rafael.  The circulation around Tropical Storm Rafael was organizing rapidly.  The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the center of Rafael’s circulation.  More thunderstorms formed near the center of circulation.  More thunderstorms also developed in bands revolving around the center of Tropical Storm Rafael.  Storms near the center of Rafael generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away fro the tropical storm.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

Tropical Storm Rafael will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Rafael will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C. It will move under the middle of an upper level ridge over the Caribbean Sea.  The upper level winds are weak near the middle of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Storm Rafael will intensify during the next 24 hours.  Rafael could intensify rapidly at times.  Tropical Storm Rafael is likely to strengthen to a hurricane on Tuesday.

Tropical Storm Rafael will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system over the western Atlantic Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Rafael toward the northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, the center of Tropical Rafael will pass near Jamaica on Monday night.  Rafael  will reach the Cayman Islands by Tuesday night.  Rafael is likely to reach western Cuba by Wednesday afternoon.

Tropical Storm Rafael will bring strong winds and heavy rain Jamaica. Heavy rain is likely to cause floods in some locations.  Rafael is likely to be a hurricane when it moves over the Cayman Islands.  Rafael will bring strong winds and heavy rain to the Cayman Islands.  It could also cause a storm surge of up to 7 feet (2 meters) in the Cayman Islands.

Tropical Storm Oscar Meanders Over Eastern Cuba

Tropical Storm Oscar meandered over eastern Cuba on Monday.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Storm Oscar was located at latitude 21.0°N and longitude 76.1°W which put the center about 80 miles (130 km) northwest of Guantanamo, Cuba.  Oscar was moving toward the north-northwest at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1004 mb.

Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect for the North Coast of Cuban province of Holguin and the North Coast of Cuban province of Guantanamo to Punta Maisi.  Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect for the Southeastern Bahamas.  Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect for the South Coast of Cuban province of Guantanamo and the North Coast of Cuban province of Las Tunas.  Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect for the Central Bahamas.

Former Hurricane Oscar weakened steadily as it meandered over eastern Cuba on Monday.  Many of the thunderstorms in Oscar’s circulation dissipated.  Bands of showers and low clouds were revolving around the center of Tropical Storm Oscar.  The strongest winds were occurring in bands over water north of Cuba.  The winds on land were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

The distribution of winds speeds in Tropical Storm Oscar was asymmetrical.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 90 miles (145 km) in the eastern side of Oscar’s circulation.  Those winds were occurring in the part of the circulation that was over water.  The winds in the western side of Tropical Storm Oscar were blowing at less than tropical storm force.  Much of the western part of Oscar’s circulation was over eastern Cuba.

Tropical Storm Oscar will move through an environment only marginally favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Oscar will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  However, it will move under the eastern side of an upper level trough over Florida.  The upper level trough will produce southwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Oscar’s circulation.  Those winds will cause strong vertical wind shear.  The wind shear will inhibit intensification, but Tropical Storm Oscar could get a little stronger on Tuesday.

The upper level trough over Florida will steer Tropical Storm Oscar toward the northeast during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track Oscar will move over the Central Bahamas on Tuesday.  Tropical Storm Oscar will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to the Central Bahamas.

Hurricane Oscar Brings Wind and Rain to Eastern Cuba

Hurricane Oscar brought wind and rain to eastern Cuba on Sunday night.  At 8:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Hurricane Oscar was located at latitude 20.2°N and longitude 74.5°W which put the center about 45 miles (75 km) east of Guantanamo, Cuba.  Oscar was moving toward the west-southwest at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 988 mb.

Hurricane Warnings are in effect for the North Coast of Cuban province of Holguin and the North Coast of Cuban province of Guantanamo to Punta Maisi.

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for the North Coast of Cuban province of Las Tunas.

Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect for the Southeastern Bahamas.  Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect for the South Coast of Cuban province of Guantanamo and the North Coast of Cuban province of Las Tunas.

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the North Coast of Cuban province of Camaguey.  A Tropical Storm Watch is also in effect for the Central Bahamas.

The center of Hurricane Oscar made landfall on the coast of eastern Cuba east of Guantanamo on Sunday evening.  A very small eye with a diameter of 4 miles (6 km) was at the center of Oscar’s circulation.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Short bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Hurricane Oscar.

The circulation around Hurricane Oscar was very small.  Winds to hurricane force extended out 15 miles (25 km) on the northern side of Oscar’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 45 miles (75 km) from the center of Hurricane Oscar.

Hurricane Oscar will move around the southern side of a high pressure system over the western Atlantic Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Oscar toward the west during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Hurricane Oscar will move across eastern Cuba on Sunday night and on Monday.

Hurricane Oscar will weaken to a tropical storm as it moves inland over eastern Cuba.  Even though Oscar will weaken, it will still bring strong winds and heavy rain to eastern Cuba.  Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations.