Tag Archives: Santiago de Cuba

Hurricane Melissa Batters Eastern Cuba

Strong winds in Hurricane Melissa battered eastern Cuba early on Wednesday.  At 8:00 a.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Hurricane Melissa was located at latitude 20.6°N and longitude 75.7°W which put the center about 45 miles (75 km) northwest of Guantanamo, Cuba.  Melissa was moving toward the north-northeast at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 105 m.p.h. (165 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 125 m.p.h. (200 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 968 mb.

Hurricane Warnings are in effect for the Cuban provinces of Granma, Santiago de Cuba, Guantanamo, Holguin, and Las Tunas.

Hurricane Warnings are in effect for the Central Bahamas and the Southeastern Bahamas.

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for Bermuda.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Haiti.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the Cuban province of Camaguey.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the Turks and Caicos.

After leaving a trail of destruction in Jamaica, Hurricane Melissa battered eastern Cuba early on Wednesday.  Melissa was still a major hurricane at the time is made the center of circulation landfall in the province of Santiago de Cuba.  Melissa started to weaken slowly again after the center moved over land.

Hurricane Melissa was still a powerful storm on Wednesday morning.  Winds to hurricane force extended out 30 miles (50 km) from the center of Melissa’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 185 miles (300 km) in the eastern half of Melissa’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 105 miles (165 km) in the western side of Hurricane Melissa.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Hurricane Melissa at the time of landfall was 17.8.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 11.9 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 29.7. Hurricane Melissa was similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Sally when Sally hit South Alabama in 2020.

Hurricane Melissa will move through an environment marginally favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Melissa will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C.  It will move under the southeastern part of an upper level trough over the eastern U.S.  The upper level trough will produce southwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Melissa’s circulation.  Those winds will cause the vertical wind shear to increase.  The vertical wind shear will inhibit intensification.  Hurricane Melissa is likely to maintain its intensity during the next 24 hours after it moves northeast of Cuba.

The upper level trough will steer Hurricane Melissa toward the northeast during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Melissa will move northeast of Cuba during the next few hours.  Hurricane Melissa will move over the Bahamas later today.  Melissa will be near Bermuda on Thursday night.

Hurricane Melissa will continue to bring strong winds and heavy rain to eastern Cuba during the next few hours.  Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some location.  Widespread electricity outages are likely in eastern Cuba.  Melissa will also bring strong winds and heavy rain to the Bahamas later today.

Hurricane Melissa Hits Jamaica

Hurricane Melissa hit Jamaica on Tuesday.  At 2:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Hurricane Melissa was located at latitude 18.2°N and longitude 78.0°W which put the center about 20 miles 305 km) south-southwest of Montego Bay, Jamaica.  Melissa was moving toward the north-northeast at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 165 m.p.h. (265 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 195 m.p.h. (315 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 899 mb.

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for Jamaica.

Hurricane Warnings are in effect for the Cuban provinces of Granma, Santiago de Cuba, Guantanamo, Holguin, and Las Tunas.

Hurricane Warnings are in effect for the Central Bahamas and the Southeastern Bahamas.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Haiti.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the Cuban province of Camaguey.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the Turks and Caicos.

Hurricane Melissa was at Category 5 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale at the time of landfall.  The maximum sustained wind speed was 185 m.p.h. (300 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 892 mb.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Hurricane Melissa at the time of landfall was 44.1.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 11.4 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 55.5.  Hurricane Melissa was similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Dorian when Dorian hit the Bahamas in 2019.

Hurricane Melissa was still a Category 5 hurricane on Tuesday afternoon.  A circular eye with a diameter of 17 miles (28 km) was at the center of Melissa’s circulation.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Hurricane Melissa.  Storms near the center of Melissa generated strong upper level divergence that pumped large quantities of mass away from the hurricane.  The removal of large amounts of mass in the upper levels was nearly balanced by a strong inflow of mass in the lower levels of the atmosphere.  The near balance of inflow and outflow of mass caused the surface pressure to remain nearly very low during the past few hours.

Winds to hurricane force extended out 30 miles (50 km) from the center of Hurricane Melissa.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 195 miles (315 km) in the eastern half of Melissa’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 90 miles (145 km) in the western side of Hurricane Melissa.

An upper level trough over the southeastern U.S. will steer Hurricane Melissa toward the northeast during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, the core of Hurricane Melissa will l move northeast across Jamaica.  Melissa will reach eastern Cuba early on Wednesday.  Hurricane Melissa will be over the Bahamas on Wednesday evening.

Hurricane Melissa will drop very heavy rain on Jamaica, Haiti and parts of the Dominican Republic.  Very heavy rain is likely to cause catastrophic floods in some locations.  Hurricane Melissa will also produce very strong winds in Jamaica.  Melissa will be capable of causing severe damage.  Widespread electricity outages are likely.  Infrastructure and transportation are likely to be severely damaged.  Melissa could produce a storm surge of up to 16 feet (5 meters) along the south coast of Jamaica.

Hurricane Melissa will also bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to eastern Cuba, the Central and Southeastern Bahamas, and the Turks and Caicos.  Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations.  Widespread electricity outages are also likely in eastern Cuba.

Hurricane Melissa Nears Jamaica

The core of Hurricane Melissa was nearing southwestern Jamaica on Tuesday morning.  At 10:00 a.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Hurricane Melissa was located at latitude 17.7°N and longitude 78.1°W which put the center about 45 miles (75 km) south-southeast of Negril, Jamaica.  Melissa was moving toward the north-northeast at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 185 m.p.h. (300 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 220 m.p.h. (355 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 892 mb.

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for Jamaica.

Hurricane Warnings are in effect for the Cuban provinces of Granma, Santiago de Cuba, Guantanamo, and Holguin.

Hurricane Warnings are in effect for the Central Bahamas and the Southeastern Bahamas.

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for the Turks and Caicos.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Haiti.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the Cuban province of Las Tunas.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the Turks and Caicos.

Winds to tropical storm force were already occurring in Jamaica even though the core of Hurricane Melissa was still southwest of Jamaica.  A weather station at the Norman Manley International Airport in Kingston reported a sustained wind speed of 43 m.p.h. (69 km/h) and a wind gust of 59 m.p.h. (93 km/h).  A weather station at the Sangster International Airport in Montego Bay reported a sustained wind speed of 38 m.p.h. (61 km/h) and a wind gust of 54 m.p.h. (87 km/h).  Heavy rain was already falling over parts of Jamaica.

The core of dangerous Hurricane Melissa was nearing the coast of southwestern Jamaica on Tuesday morning.  A circular eye with a diameter of 12 miles (19 km) was at the center of Melissa’s circulation.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Hurricane Melissa.  Storms near the center of Melissa generated strong upper level divergence that pumped large quantities of mass away from the hurricane.  The removal of large amounts of mass in the upper levels was nearly balanced by a strong inflow of mass in the lower levels of the atmosphere.  The near balance of inflow and outflow of mass caused the surface pressure to remain nearly steady during the past few hours.

Winds to hurricane force extended out 30 miles (50 km) from the center of Hurricane Melissa.   Winds to tropical storm force extended out 195 miles (315 km) in the eastern half of Melissa’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 90 miles (145 km) in the western side of Hurricane Melissa.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Hurricane Melissa is 44.1.  The Hurricane Size index (HSI) is 11.4 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 55.5.  Hurricane Melissa is similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Dorian when Dorian hit the Bahamas in 2019.

Hurricane Melissa will move through an environment favorable for a very powerful hurricane during the few hours until it makes landfall in Jamaica.  Melissa will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Hurricane Melissa is likely to maintain its intensity until it makes landfall in Jamaica unless an eyewall replacement cycle occurs.  If the inner end of a rainband wraps around the existing eye and eyewall, then the formation of concentric eyewalls would cause Melissa to start to weaken.

An upper level trough over the southeastern U.S. will steer Hurricane Melissa toward the northeast during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, the core of Hurricane Melissa will reach southwestern Jamaica on Tuesday morning.  Melissa will move northeast across Jamaica during much of Tuesday.  Hurricane Melissa will reach eastern Cuba early on Wednesday.

Hurricane Melissa will drop very heavy rain on Jamaica, Haiti and parts of the Dominican Republic.  Very heavy rain is likely to cause catastrophic floods in some locations.  Hurricane Melissa will also produce very strong winds in Jamaica.  Melissa will be capable of causing severe damage.  Widespread electricity outages are likely.  Infrastructure and transportation are likely to be severely damaged.  Melissa could produce a storm surge of up to 16 feet (5 meters) along the south coast of Jamaica.

Hurricane Melissa will also bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to eastern Cuba, the Central and Southeastern Bahamas, and the Turks and Caicos.  Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations.  Widespread electricity outages are also likely in eastern Cuba.

Hurricane Melissa Turns Toward Jamaica

Hurricane Melissa started to make a slow turn toward Jamaica on Monday evening.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Hurricane Melissa was located at latitude 16.6°N and longitude 78.5°W which put the center about 150 miles (240 km) southwest of Kingston, Jamaica.  Melissa was moving toward the north-northeast at 2 m.p.h. (3 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 175 m.p.h. (285 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 205 m.p.h. (330 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 903 mb.

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for Jamaica.

Hurricane Warnings are in effect for the Cuban provinces of Granma, Santiago de Cuba, Guantanamo, and Holguin.

Hurricane Warnings are in effect for the Central Bahamas and the Southeastern Bahamas.

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for the Turks and Caicos.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Haiti.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the Cuban province of Las Tunas.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the Turks and Caicos.

Powerful Hurricane Melissa started a slow turn toward Jamaica on Monday evening.  A circular eye with a diameter of 12 miles (19 km) was at the center of Melissa’s circulation.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Hurricane Melissa.  Storms near the center of Melissa generated strong upper level divergence that pumped large quantities of mass away from the hurricane.  The removal of large amounts of mass in the upper levels was nearly balanced by a strong inflow of mass in the lower levels of the atmosphere.  The near balance of inflow and outflow of mass caused the surface pressure to remain nearly steady during the past few hours.

Winds to hurricane force extended out 30 miles (50 km) from the center of Melissa’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 195 miles (315 km) in the eastern half of Hurricane Melissa.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 90 miles (145 km) in the western side of Melissa’s circulation.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Hurricane Melissa is 40.4.  The Hurricane Size index (HSI) is 11.4 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 51.8.  Hurricane Melissa is similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Andrew when Andrew was at its peak intensity in 1992.

Hurricane Melissa will move through an environment favorable for a very powerful hurricane during the next 12 hours.  Melissa will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Hurricane Melissa is likely to maintain its intensity during the next 12 hours unless an eyewall replacement cycle occurs.  If the inner end of a rainband wraps around the existing eye and eyewall, then the formation of concentric eyewalls would cause Melissa to weaken.

An upper level trough over the southeastern U.S. will start to steer Hurricane Melissa toward the northeast during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, the core of Hurricane Melissa will reach southwestern Jamaica on Tuesday morning.  Melissa will move northeast across Jamaica during much of Tuesday.  Hurricane Melissa will reach eastern Cuba early on Wednesday.

Hurricane Melissa will drop very heavy rain on Jamaica, Haiti and parts of the Dominican Republic.  Very heavy rain is likely to cause catastrophic floods in some locations.  Hurricane Melissa will also produce very strong winds in Jamaica.  Melissa will be capable of causing severe damage.  Widespread electricity outages are likely.  Infrastructure and transportation are likely to be severely affected.  Melissa could produce a storm surge of up to 16 feet (5 meters) along the south coast of Jamaica.

Hurricane Melissa will also bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to eastern Cuba, the Central and Southeastern Bahamas, and the Turks and Caicos.  Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations.  Widespread electricity outages are also likely in eastern Cuba.

Hurricane Melissa Intensifies to Cat. 5

Hurricane Melissa intensified to Category 5 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale early on Monday.  At 8:00 a.m. EDT on Monday the center of Hurricane Melissa was located at latitude 16.4°N and longitude 78.0°W which put the center about 135 miles (220 km) southwest of Kingston, Jamaica.  Melissa was moving toward the west at 3 m.p.h. (5 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 160 m.p.h. (260 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 190 m.p.h. (305 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 913 mb.

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for Jamaica.

Hurricane Warnings are in effect for the Cuban provinces of Granma, Santiago de Cuba, Guantanamo, and Holguin.

Hurricane Watches are in effect for the Central Bahamas, the Southeastern Bahamas, and the Turks and Caicos.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Haiti.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the Cuban province of Las Tunas.

Hurricane Melissa intensified to Category 5 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale early on Monday.  A circular eye with a diameter of 12 miles (19 km) was at the center of Melissa’s circulation.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Hurricane Melissa.  Storms near the center of Melissa generated strong upper level divergence that pumped large quantities of mass away from the hurricane.  The removal of large amounts of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease rapidly.

Winds to hurricane force extended out 30 miles (50 km) from the center of Melissa’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 195 miles (315 km) in the eastern half of Hurricane Melissa.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 90 miles (145 km) in the western side of Melissa’s circulation.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Hurricane Melissa is 35.0.  The Hurricane Size index (HSI) is 11.4 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 46.4.  Hurricane Melissa is similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Andrew when Andrew made landfall in South Florida in 1992.

Hurricane Melissa will move through an environment favorable for a very powerful hurricane during the next 24 hours.  Melissa will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Hurricane Melissa could intensify during the next 24 hours unless an eyewall replacement cycle occur.  If the inner end of a rainband wraps around the existing eye and eyewall, then concentric eyewalls could cause Melissa to weaken.

The high pressure system that has been steering Hurricane Melissa slowly toward the west is likely to weaken during the next 24 hours.  When the high pressure system weakens, Melissa will start to move slowly toward the north.  On its anticipated track, the core of Hurricane Melissa will hit Jamaica early on Tuesday.

Hurricane Melissa will drop very heavy rain on Jamaica, Haiti and parts of the Dominican Republic.  Very heavy rain is likely to cause catastrophic floods in some locations.  Hurricane Melissa will also produce very strong winds in Jamaica.  Melissa will be capable of causing severe damage.  Widespread electricity outages are likely.  Melissa could produce a storm surge of up to 16 feet (5 meters) along the south coast of Jamaica.

Hurricane Melissa will also bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to eastern Cuba, the Central and Southeastern Bahamas, and the Turks and Caicos.

Hurricane Melissa Strengthens to Cat. 4

Hurricane Melissa strengthened to Category 4 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale south of Jamaica early on Sunday morning.  At 8:00 a.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Hurricane Melissa was located at latitude 16.3°N and longitude 76.4°W which put the center about 120 miles (195 km) south-southeast of Kingston, Jamaica.  Melissa was moving toward the west at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 140 m.p.h. (225 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 165 m.p.h. (265 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 952 mb.

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for Jamaica.

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for the Cuban provinces of Granma, Santiago de Cuba, Guantanamo, and Holguin.

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for the southern coast of Haiti from the border with the Dominican Republic to Port Au Prince.

A Tropical Storm Warning is also in effect for the southern coast of Haiti from the border with the Dominican Republic to Port Au Prince.

Hurricane Melissa strengthened to Category 4 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale early on Sunday morning.  A circular eye with a diameter of 20 miles (32 km) was at the center of Melissa’s circulation.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Hurricane Melissa.  Storms near the center of Melissa generated upper level divergence that pumped large quantities of mass away from the hurricane.  The removal of large amounts of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease rapidly.

The circulation around Hurricane Melissa was relatively small.  Winds to hurricane force extended out 25 miles (40 km) from the center of Melissa’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 170 miles (280 km) in the eastern half of Hurricane Melissa.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 90 miles (145 km) in the western side of Melissa’s circulation.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Hurricane Melissa is 28.3.  The Hurricane Size index (HSI) is 9.3 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 37.6.  Hurricane Melissa is similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Charley when Charley made landfall in Southwest Florida in 2004.

Hurricane Melissa will move through an environment that will be favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Melissa will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Hurricane Melissa will intensify during the next 24 hours. Melissa could intensify rapidly at times.  Melissa could strengthen to category 5 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale.

Hurricane Melissa will move around the southern side of a high pressure system that is north of Cuba.  The high pressure system will steer Melissa slowly toward the west during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Hurricane Melissa will move slowly south of Jamaica on Sunday.  The high pressure system will weaken on Monday and Melissa will move toward Jamaica

Hurricane Melissa is likely to drop very heavy rain on Jamaica, Haiti and parts of the Dominican Republic.  Very heavy rain is likely to cause catastrophic floods in some locations.  Hurricane Melissa will also produce very strong winds in Jamaica.  Melissa will be capable of causing severe damage.  Widespread electricity outages are likely.  Melissa could produce a storm surge of up to 16 feet (5 meters) along the south coast of Jamaica.

Hurricane Melissa will also bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to eastern Cuba early next week.

Melissa Rapidly Intensifies to a Major Hurricane

Hurricane Melissa rapidly intensified to a major hurricane southeast of Jamaica on Saturday evening.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Hurricane Melissa was located at latitude 16.4°N and longitude 75.9°W which put the center about 115 miles (185 km) south-southeast of Kingston, Jamaica.  Melissa was moving toward the west at 3 m.p.h. (5 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 115 m.p.h. (185 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 135 m.p.h. (215 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 967 mb.

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for Jamaica.

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for the Cuban provinces of Granma, Santiago de Cuba, Guantanamo, and Holguin.

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for the southern coast of Haiti from the border with the Dominican Republic to Port Au Prince.

A Tropical Storm Warning is also in effect for the southern coast of Haiti from the border with the Dominican Republic to Port Au Prince.

Hurricane Melissa rapidly intensified to a major hurricane on Saturday evening.  A circular eye with a diameter of 20 miles (32 km) was at the center of Melissa’s circulation.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Hurricane Melissa.  Storms near the center of Melissa generated upper level divergence that pumped large quantities of mass away from the hurricane.  The removal of large amounts of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease rapidly.

The size of the circulation around Hurricane Melissa increased on Saturday.  Winds to hurricane force extended out 25 miles (40 km) from the center of Melissa’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 160 miles (260 km) in the eastern half of Hurricane Melissa.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 90 miles (145 km) in the western side of Melissa’s circulation.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Hurricane Melissa is 20.6.  The Hurricane Size index (HSI) is 9.3 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 29.9.

Hurricane Melissa will move through an environment that will be favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Melissa will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Hurricane Melissa will intensify during the next 24 hours.  Melissa is likely to continue to intensify rapidly during the next few hours.  Melissa could strengthen to category 5 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale.

Hurricane Melissa will move around the southern side of a high pressure system that is north of Cuba.  The high pressure system will steer Melissa slowly toward the west during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Hurricane Melissa will move slowly south of Jamaica on Sunday.  The high pressure system will weaken on Monday and Melissa will move toward Jamaica

Hurricane Melissa is likely to drop very heavy rain on Jamaica, Haiti and parts of the Dominican Republic. Very heavy rain is likely to cause catastrophic floods in some locations.  Hurricane Melissa will also produce very strong winds in Jamaica.  Widespread electricity outages are likely.  Melissa could produce a storm surge of up to 16 feet (5 meters) along the south coast of Jamaica.

Hurricane Melissa will also bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to eastern Cuba early next week.

Tropical Storm Watches Issued for Jamaica, Haiti, Eastern Cuba and Southeastern Bahamas

The potential risk posed by a low pressure system over the western Caribbean Sea prompted the issuance of Tropical Storm Watches for Jamaica, Haiti, eastern Cuba, the Southeastern Bahamas, and the Turks and Caicos on Thursday afternoon. The U.S. National Hurricane Center designated the low pressure system as Potential Tropical Cyclone Twentytwo. At 4:00 p.m. EST on Thursday the center of Potential Tropical Cyclone Twentytwo was located at latitude 15.2°N and longitude 81.5°W which put it about 365 miles (590 km) west-southwest of Kington, Jamaica. The low pressure system was moving toward the north-northeast at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1004 mb.

Tropical Storm Watches were in effect for Jamaica, Haiti, the Southeastern Bahamas, the Turks and Caicos, and the Cuban provinces of Guantanamo, Santiago de Cuba, Holguin, Granma, and Las Tunas.

A U.S. Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter plane investigated the low pressure system over the western Caribbean Sea on Thursday afternoon. The crew of the plane found that there was a large counterclockwise rotation, but the was not a well defined low level center within that large rotation. There were several smaller counterclockwise rotations within the larger low pressure system. Thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the eastern side of Potential Tropical Cyclone Twentytwo. Bands in the western side of the low pressure system consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.

Potential Tropical Cyclone Twentytwo will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 36 hours. The low pressure system will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C. It will move under the eastern side of an upper level trough over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. The upper level trough will produce southwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of the low pressure system. Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear. The wind shear will inhibit intensification, but the shear may not be strong enough to prevent intensification. Potential Tropical Cyclone Twentytwo is likely to intensify to a tropical storm during the next 36 hours.

The upper level trough over the eastern Gulf of Mexico will steer Potential Tropical Cyclone Twentytwo toward the northeast during the next 36 hours. On its anticipated track, the center of Potential Tropical Cyclone Twentytwo will be near Jamaica on Friday afternoon. The low pressure system will be near eastern Cuba and Haiti on Friday night. It will be over the Southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos on Saturday.

Potential Tropical Cyclone Twentytwo will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to Jamaica, Haiti, eastern Cuba, the Southeastern Bahamas, and the Turks and Caicos. Gusty winds could cause localized electricity outages. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Tropical Storm Fred Makes Landfall in Dominican Republic

Tropical Storm Fred made landfall on the coast of the Dominican Republic on Wednesday afternoon. At 2:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Storm Fred was located at latitude 18.5°N and longitude 70.1°W which put it about 30 miles (50 km) west of Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic. Fred was moving toward the west-northwest at 16 m.p.h. (26 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1006 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Punta Palenque, Dominican Republic to the northern border with Haiti. A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Gonaives, Haiti to the northern border with the Dominican Republic. Tropical Storm Watches were in effect for the Southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos. Tropical Storm Watches were also in effect for the Cuban provinces of Ciego de Avila, Camaguey, Las Tunas, Holguin, Granma, Santiago de Cuba and Guantanamo.

The center of Tropical Storm Fred made landfall on the south coast of the Dominican Republic west of Santo Domingo on Wednesday afternoon. Fred became better organized and a little stronger prior to making landfall. A band of thunderstorms wrapped around the eastern and northern sides of the center of Tropical Storm Fred. Storms near the center generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical storm and the surface pressure decreased slightly. The strongest winds were occurring in the eastern half of Tropical Storm Fred. At the time of landfall winds to tropical storm force extended out 60 miles (95 km) from the center of Fred’s circulation.

Tropical Storm Fred will move around the southern side of a subtropical high pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean. The high will steer Fred toward the west-northwest during the next several days. On its anticipate track Tropical Storm Fred will move across the western part of the Dominican Republic and northern Haiti during the next 24 hours. Fred will drop locally heavy rain and flash floods could occur in some locations.

Mountains in the Dominican Republic and Haiti will significantly disrupt the low level circulation of Tropical Storm Fred. Fred is likely to weaken to a tropical depression during the next 12 hours. The circulation of Tropical Storm Fred in the middle troposphere could survive passage over those mountains. The center of Tropical Storm Fred will move northwest of Haiti on Thursday. The Sea Surface Temperatures of the water northwest of Haiti are near 29°C. If the middle level circulation of Fred survives, it could spin up a new low level center of circulation when it moves back over the warm water. An upper level low near Florida will produce westerly winds that will blow toward the top of Fred’s circulation. Those winds will cause vertical wind shear and they will inhibit re-intensification of Tropical Storm Fred. If the center of Fred remains north of Cuba, it could strengthen back to a tropical storm. Fred could approach the Florida Keys and South Florida on Friday. It could move over the Gulf of Mexico during the weekend.