Tag Archives: Port Au Prince

Hurricane Melissa Strengthens to Cat. 4

Hurricane Melissa strengthened to Category 4 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale south of Jamaica early on Sunday morning.  At 8:00 a.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Hurricane Melissa was located at latitude 16.3°N and longitude 76.4°W which put the center about 120 miles (195 km) south-southeast of Kingston, Jamaica.  Melissa was moving toward the west at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 140 m.p.h. (225 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 165 m.p.h. (265 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 952 mb.

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for Jamaica.

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for the Cuban provinces of Granma, Santiago de Cuba, Guantanamo, and Holguin.

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for the southern coast of Haiti from the border with the Dominican Republic to Port Au Prince.

A Tropical Storm Warning is also in effect for the southern coast of Haiti from the border with the Dominican Republic to Port Au Prince.

Hurricane Melissa strengthened to Category 4 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale early on Sunday morning.  A circular eye with a diameter of 20 miles (32 km) was at the center of Melissa’s circulation.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Hurricane Melissa.  Storms near the center of Melissa generated upper level divergence that pumped large quantities of mass away from the hurricane.  The removal of large amounts of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease rapidly.

The circulation around Hurricane Melissa was relatively small.  Winds to hurricane force extended out 25 miles (40 km) from the center of Melissa’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 170 miles (280 km) in the eastern half of Hurricane Melissa.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 90 miles (145 km) in the western side of Melissa’s circulation.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Hurricane Melissa is 28.3.  The Hurricane Size index (HSI) is 9.3 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 37.6.  Hurricane Melissa is similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Charley when Charley made landfall in Southwest Florida in 2004.

Hurricane Melissa will move through an environment that will be favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Melissa will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Hurricane Melissa will intensify during the next 24 hours. Melissa could intensify rapidly at times.  Melissa could strengthen to category 5 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale.

Hurricane Melissa will move around the southern side of a high pressure system that is north of Cuba.  The high pressure system will steer Melissa slowly toward the west during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Hurricane Melissa will move slowly south of Jamaica on Sunday.  The high pressure system will weaken on Monday and Melissa will move toward Jamaica

Hurricane Melissa is likely to drop very heavy rain on Jamaica, Haiti and parts of the Dominican Republic.  Very heavy rain is likely to cause catastrophic floods in some locations.  Hurricane Melissa will also produce very strong winds in Jamaica.  Melissa will be capable of causing severe damage.  Widespread electricity outages are likely.  Melissa could produce a storm surge of up to 16 feet (5 meters) along the south coast of Jamaica.

Hurricane Melissa will also bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to eastern Cuba early next week.

Melissa Rapidly Intensifies to a Major Hurricane

Hurricane Melissa rapidly intensified to a major hurricane southeast of Jamaica on Saturday evening.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Hurricane Melissa was located at latitude 16.4°N and longitude 75.9°W which put the center about 115 miles (185 km) south-southeast of Kingston, Jamaica.  Melissa was moving toward the west at 3 m.p.h. (5 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 115 m.p.h. (185 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 135 m.p.h. (215 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 967 mb.

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for Jamaica.

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for the Cuban provinces of Granma, Santiago de Cuba, Guantanamo, and Holguin.

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for the southern coast of Haiti from the border with the Dominican Republic to Port Au Prince.

A Tropical Storm Warning is also in effect for the southern coast of Haiti from the border with the Dominican Republic to Port Au Prince.

Hurricane Melissa rapidly intensified to a major hurricane on Saturday evening.  A circular eye with a diameter of 20 miles (32 km) was at the center of Melissa’s circulation.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Hurricane Melissa.  Storms near the center of Melissa generated upper level divergence that pumped large quantities of mass away from the hurricane.  The removal of large amounts of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease rapidly.

The size of the circulation around Hurricane Melissa increased on Saturday.  Winds to hurricane force extended out 25 miles (40 km) from the center of Melissa’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 160 miles (260 km) in the eastern half of Hurricane Melissa.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 90 miles (145 km) in the western side of Melissa’s circulation.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Hurricane Melissa is 20.6.  The Hurricane Size index (HSI) is 9.3 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 29.9.

Hurricane Melissa will move through an environment that will be favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Melissa will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Hurricane Melissa will intensify during the next 24 hours.  Melissa is likely to continue to intensify rapidly during the next few hours.  Melissa could strengthen to category 5 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale.

Hurricane Melissa will move around the southern side of a high pressure system that is north of Cuba.  The high pressure system will steer Melissa slowly toward the west during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Hurricane Melissa will move slowly south of Jamaica on Sunday.  The high pressure system will weaken on Monday and Melissa will move toward Jamaica

Hurricane Melissa is likely to drop very heavy rain on Jamaica, Haiti and parts of the Dominican Republic. Very heavy rain is likely to cause catastrophic floods in some locations.  Hurricane Melissa will also produce very strong winds in Jamaica.  Widespread electricity outages are likely.  Melissa could produce a storm surge of up to 16 feet (5 meters) along the south coast of Jamaica.

Hurricane Melissa will also bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to eastern Cuba early next week.

Melissa Strengthens to a Hurricane

Former Tropical Storm Melissa strengthened to a hurricane southeast of Jamaica on Saturday afternoon.  At 2:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Hurricane Melissa was located at latitude 16.6°N and longitude 75.2°W which put the center about 145 miles (230 km) southeast of Kingston, Jamaica.  Melissa was moving toward the west-northwest at 1 m.p.h. (2 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 980 mb.

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for Jamaica.

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for the southern coast of Haiti from the border with the Dominican Republic to Port Au Prince.

A Tropical Storm Warning is also in effect for the southern coast of Haiti from the border with the Dominican Republic to Port Au Prince.

Former Tropical Storm Melissa strengthened to a hurricane over the Caribbean Sea southeast of Jamaica on Saturday afternoon.  A circular eye with a diameter of 23 miles (37 km) formed at the center of Melissa’s circulation.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Hurricane Melissa.  Storms near the center of Melissa generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the hurricane.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The size of the circulation around Hurricane Melissa increased on Saturday.  Winds to hurricane force extended out 35 miles (55 km) from the center of Melissa’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 125 miles (200 km) in the eastern half of Hurricane Melissa.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 70 miles (110 km) in the western side of Melissa’s circulation.

Hurricane Melissa will move through an environment that will be favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Melissa will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C.  It will move under the southwestern part of an upper level trough that is north of Hispaniola.  The upper level trough will produce northerly winds that will blow toward the top of Melissa’s circulation.  Those winds will produce some vertical wind shear, but the winds will get weaker during the next 24 hours.  The vertical wind shear will inhibit intensification, but the wind shear will not be enough to prevent intensification.  Hurricane Melissa will intensify during the next 24 hours.  Melissa is likely to intensify rapidly at times.  Melissa is likely to strengthen to a major hurricane on Sunday.

Hurricane Melissa will move around the western end of a high pressure system that is over the Atlantic Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Melissa slowly toward the northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Hurricane Melissa will move slowly toward Jamaica.

Hurricane Melissa is likely to drop very heavy rain on Jamaica, Haiti and parts of the Dominican Republic.  Very heavy rain is likely to cause catastrophic floods in some locations.

 

Tropical Storm Melissa Strengthens

Tropical Storm Melissa started to strengthen on Friday afternoon as it meandered over the Caribbean Sea southeast of Jamaica.  At 12:30 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Storm Melissa was located at latitude 15.6°N and longitude 74.5°W which put the center about 220 miles (355 km) southeast of Kingston, Jamaica.  Melissa was moving toward the east-southeast at 2 m.p.h. (3 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 999 mb.

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for Jamaica.

A Hurricane Watch is also in effect for the southern coast of Haiti from the border with the Dominican Republic to Port Au Prince.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Jamaica.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the southern coast of Haiti from the border with the Dominican Republic to Port Au Prince.

A U.S. Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft determined that Tropical Storm Melissa had started to strengthen early on Friday afternoon.  The reconnaissance plane found stronger winds and a decreasing surface pressure in Tropical Storm Melissa.

Tropical Storm Melissa also looked like a stronger tropical storm on satellite images.  Stronger thunderstorms developed near the center of Melissa’s circulation.  Stronger thunderstorms also formed in bands in the eastern side of Tropical Storm Melissa.  Bands in the western side of Melissa’s circulation still consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Storms near the center of Melissa generated more upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the east of the tropical storm.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

Even though Tropical Storm Melissa started to strengthen on Friday afternoon, the strongest winds were still occurring in the eastern side of Melissa’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 140 miles (225 km) in the eastern half of Tropical Storm Melissa.  The winds in the western half of Melissa’s circulation were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Storm Melissa will move through an environment that will be favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Melissa will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C.  It will move under the south part of an upper level trough that is north of Hispaniola.  The upper level trough will produce southwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Melissa’s circulation.  Those winds will produce some vertical wind shear, but the winds will get weaker during the next 24 hours.  The vertical wind shear will inhibit intensification, but the wind shear will not be enough to prevent intensification.  Tropical Storm Melissa will intensify during the next 24 hours.  Melissa could intensify rapidly at times.  Tropical Storm Melissa is likely to strengthen to a hurricane by Saturday afternoon.  Melissa could intensify to a major hurricane by Sunday.

Tropical Storm Melissa will move around the western end of a high pressure system that is over the Atlantic Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Melissa slowly toward the north-northwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Melissa will move slowly toward Jamaica.

Tropical Storm Melissa is likely to drop very heavy rain on Jamaica, Haiti and parts of the Dominican Republic.  Very heavy rain is likely to cause catastrophic floods in some locations.

 

Melissa Prompts Hurricane Watch for Jamaica

The risk posed by Tropical Storm Melissa prompted the issuance of a Hurricane Watch for Jamaica on Thursday morning.  A Tropical Storm Warning was also issued for Jamaica.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Storm Melissa was located at latitude 15.4°N and longitude 74.9°W which put the center about 220 miles (355 km) southeast of Kingston, Jamaica.  Melissa was moving toward the north-northwest at 2 m.p.h. (3 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1003 mb.

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for Jamaica.

A Hurricane Watch is also in effect for the southern coast of Haiti from the border with the Dominican Republic to Port Au Prince.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Jamaica.

Tropical Storm Melissa was showing indications of becoming more organized on Thursday morning.  The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the western side of the center of Melissa’s circulation.  More thunderstorms developed in bands in the eastern side of Tropical Storm Melissa.  Bands in the western side of Melissa’s circulation still consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Storms near the center of Melissa generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the east of the tropical storm.

Vertical wind shear caused the distribution of wind speeds in Tropical Storm Melissa to continue to be asymmetrical.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 115 miles (185 km) in the eastern half of Melissa’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 70 miles (110 km) in the northwestern quadrant of Tropical Storm Melissa.  The winds in the southwestern quadrant of Melissa’s circulation were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Storm Melissa will move through an environment that will become more favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Melissa will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C.  It will move under the southeastern part of an upper level trough that is over Cuba.  The upper level trough will produce southwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Melissa’s circulation.  Those winds will produce moderate vertical wind shear, but the winds will get weaker during the next 24 hours.  The moderate vertical wind shear will inhibit intensification, but the wind shear will decrease on Friday.  Tropical Storm Melissa could start to intensify during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Storm Melissa will move around the western end of a high pressure system that is over the Atlantic Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Melissa slowly toward the north-northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Melissa will continue to move slowly toward Jamaica.

Tropical Storm Melissa Stalls Southeast of Jamaica

Tropical Storm Melissa stalled over the Caribbean Sea southeast of Jamaica on Wednesday.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Storm Melissa was located at latitude 14.4°N and longitude 74.3°W which put the center about 300 miles (480 km) south-southeast of Kingston, Jamaica.   Melissa was moving toward the west-northwest at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1000 mb.

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for the southern coast of Haiti from the border with the Dominican Republic to Port Au Prince.

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for Jamaica.

Tropical Storm Melissa stalled southeast of Jamaica as easterly winds in the lower levels of the atmosphere and westerly winds in the upper levels competed to push the tropical storm.  The vertical wind shear was also affecting the structure of Melissa’s circulation.  Thunderstorms continued to develop in bands in the eastern side of Tropical Storm Melissa.  Bands in the western side of Melissa’s circulation still consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Storms near the center of Melissa generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the east of the tropical storm.  The removal of mass in the upper levels was nearly equal to the inflow of mass in the lower levels of the atmosphere.  So, the surface pressure did not change much on Wednesday.

The vertical wind shear also caused the distribution of wind speeds in Tropical Storm Melissa to be asymmetrical.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 115 miles (185 km) in the eastern half of Melissa’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 70 miles (110 km) in the northwestern quadrant of Tropical Storm Melissa.  The winds in the southwestern quadrant of Melissa’s circulation were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Storm Melissa will move through an environment that is marginally favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Melissa will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C.  It will move under the southeastern part of an upper level trough that is over Cuba.  The upper level trough will produce westerly winds that will blow toward the top of Melissa’s circulation.  Those winds will produce moderate vertical wind shear.  The moderate vertical wind shear will inhibit intensification, but the wind shear may not be enough to prevent intensification.  Tropical Storm Melissa could intensify a little during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Storm Melissa will move around the western end of a high pressure system that is over the Atlantic Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Melissa slowly toward the northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Melissa will move slowly toward Jamaica.

 

Tropical Storm Melissa Forms over Caribbean Sea

Tropical Storm Melissa formed over the Caribbean Sea on Tuesday morning.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Storm Melissa was located at latitude 14.3°N and longitude 71.7°W which put the center about 300 miles (480 km) south of Port Au Prince, Haiti.  Melissa was moving toward the west at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1003 mb.

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for the southern coast of Haiti from the border with the Dominican Republic to Port Au Prince.

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for Jamaica.

A low pressure system over the Caribbean Sea south of Hispaniola strengthened on Tuesday morning and the U.S. National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Storm Melissa.

More thunderstorms developed near the center of Tropical Storm Melissa on Tuesday morning.  Thunderstorms were also forming in bands in the eastern side of Melissa’s circulation.  Bands in the western side of Tropical Storm Melissa consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Storms near the center of Melissa began to generate upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the east of the tropical storm.

The distribution of wind speeds in Tropical Storm Melissa was asymmetrical.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 115 miles (185 km) in the eastern side of Melissa’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 45 miles (75 km) in the western half of Tropical Storm Melissa.

Tropical Storm Melissa will move through an environment that is favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Melissa will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C.  It will move under the southeastern part of an upper level trough that is near Cuba.  The upper level trough will produce westerly winds that will blow toward the top of Melissa’s circulation.  Those winds will produce moderate vertical wind shear.  The moderate vertical wind shear will inhibit intensification, but the wind shear will not be enough to prevent intensification.  Tropical Storm Melissa is likely to intensify during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Storm Melissa will move around the western end of a high pressure system that is over the Atlantic Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Melissa toward the west-northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Melissa will move closer to Haiti and Jamaica.

Tropical Storm Fred Makes Landfall in Northwest Florida

Tropical Storm Fred made landfall on the coast of Northwest Florida near Cape San Blas on Monday afternoon. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Storm Fred was located at latitude 29.9°N and longitude 85.3°W which put it about 25 miles (40 km) northwest of Apalachicola Florida. Fred was moving toward the north-northeast at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 995 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from the Okaloosa/Walton County Line to the Stienhatchee River, Florida.

The National Hurricane Center stated that Tropical Storm Fred made landfall on the coast of Northwest Florida near Cape San Blas, which is about 25 miles (40 km) west of Apalachicola. The maximum sustained wind speed at the time of landfall was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and the minimum surface pressure was 994 mb. Fred was dropping heavy rain over parts of northwest Florida and southeast Alabama. There were reports of flash floods in some locations. Tropical Storm Fred was also causing a storm surge along the coast of the Gulf of Mexico where the wind was pushing the water toward the shore. A Storm Surge Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Indian Pass to Yankeetown, Florida.

Tropical Storm Fred will move around the western end of a subtropical high pressure over the Atlantic Ocean. The high will steer Fred toward the north-northeast during the next 36 hours. On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Fred will be over northern Georgia on Tuesday afternoon. Fred could be over West Virginia by Wednesday. Tropical Storm Fred will weaken steadily as it moves farther inland. However, Fred will move through a very moist environment and it will drop heavy rain over parts of the southeastern U.S. Rain will spread over western Georgia on Monday evening. Flash Flood Watches have been issued for parts of northwest Florida, southeast Alabama, western and northern Georgia, southeastern Tennessee and western North Carolina. Tropical Storm Fred could also cause sporadic power outages as it moves inland.

Elsewhere, Tropical Depression Grace was dropping heavy rain on parts of the Dominican Republic and Haiti, and former Tropical Depression Eight strengthened to Tropical Storm Henri southeast of Bermuda.

At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Depression Grace was located at latitude 17.9°N and longitude 72.4°W which put it about 50 miles (80 km) southeast of Port Au Prince, Haiti. Grace was moving toward the west-northwest at 13 m.p.h. (20 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1007 mb. Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for the Cayman Islands and the Cuban provinces of Santiago de Cuba, Granma, Las Tunas and Camaguey. Tropical Storm Watches were in effect for the entire coast of Haiti and for Jamaica. Tropical Storm Watches were also in effect for the Cuban provinces of Ciego de Avila, Sancti Spiritus, Cinefuegos, Matanzas and Isla de la Juventud.

At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Storm Henri was located at latitude 31.0°N and longitude 62.9°W which put it about 145 miles (2305 km) southeast of Bermuda. Henri was moving toward the south-southwest at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1010 mb. A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for Bermuda.

Tropical Storm Fred Strengthens on Approach to Northwest Florida

Tropical Storm Fred strengthened as it approach the coast of Northwest Florida on Monday morning. At 8:30 a.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Storm Fred was located at latitude 28.7°N and longitude 85.6°W which put it about 80 miles (130 km) south-southwest of Apalachicola Florida. Fred was moving toward the north at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 993 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from the Wakulla/Jefferson County Line to Navarre, Florida.

A reconnaissance plane sampling Tropical Storm Fred on Monday morning found that Fred was intensifying. Satellite and radar images showed that Tropical Storm Fred was developing a structure that is typical of tropical storms. Radar images also showed that the inner end of a rainband was wrapping around the center of Fred and a small eye might be forming at the center of circulation. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Tropical Storm Fred. Storms near the core generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical storm. The distribution of thunderstorms and the wind field around Fred continued to be asymmetrical. The strong thunderstorms were around the center of circulation and in bands on the eastern side of Tropical Storm Fred. Bands in the western half of the tropical storm consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. The strongest winds were also in the eastern half of Fred. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 90 miles (145 km) on the eastern side of the circulation. Winds in the much of western half of Fred were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Storm Fred will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next few hours. Fred will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C. It will move under the western side of an upper level ridge centered near Cuba. The ridge will produce southwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Fred’s circulation. Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear. The wind shear will inhibit intensification, but the shear will not be strong enough to prevent Fred from intensifying. Tropical Storm Fred is likely to continue to intensify gradually during the next few hours.

Tropical Storm Fred will move around the western end of a subtropical high pressure system over the western Atlantic Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Fred toward the north during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Fred will make landfall on the coast of Northwest Florida between Apalachicola and Panama City in a few hours. Fred will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to Northwest Florida, southeast Alabama and southern Georgia. Flash Flood Watches have been issued for some of those areas. Tropical Storm Fred could also cause a storm surge of up to seven feet (two meters) along portions of the coast. The part of the coast around the northeastern Gulf of Mexico is very vulnerable to storm surges. A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Indian Pass to Yankeetown, Florida. Thunderstorms in bands on the eastern side of Tropical Storm Fred could produce tornadoes.

Elsewhere, Tropical Depression Grace was passing south of Hispaniola and Tropical Depression Eight was slowly getting better organized east of Bermuda.

At 8:00 a.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Depression Grace was located at latitude 17.4°N and longitude 70.9°W which put it about 125 miles (200 km) southeast of Port Au Prince, Haiti. Grace was moving toward the west at 15 m.p.h. (24 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1008 mb. Tropical Storm Watches were in effect for the entire coast of the Dominican Republic and the entire coast of Haiti. A Tropical Storm Watch was issued for Jamaica.

At 8:00 a.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Depression Eight was located at latitude 31.7°N and longitude 62.8°W which put it about 120 miles (195 km) east-southeast of Bermuda. The tropical depression was moving toward the south at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (505km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1012 mb. A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for Bermuda.