Tag Archives: Guantanamo

Potential Tropical Cyclone Twentytwo Unlikely to Develop

Potential Tropical Cyclone Twentytwo is now unlikely to develop into a tropical depression or a tropical storm. At 10:00 p.m. EST on Friday the center of Potential Tropical Cyclone Twentytwo was located at latitude 20.0°N and longitude 76.5°W which put it about 85 miles (130 km) west of Guantanamo, Cuba. It was moving toward the northeast at 22 m.p.h. (35 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1006 mb.

A low pressure system over the Caribbean Sea designated as Potential Tropical Cyclone Twentytwo is no longer expected to develop into a tropical depression or a tropical storm. An upper level trough over the Gulf of Mexico is producing strong southwesterly winds that are blowing across the top of the low pressure system. Those winds are causing strong vertical wind shear. The vertical wind shear is preventing the formation of thunderstorms near the center of Potential Tropical Cyclone Twentytwo. Thunderstorms are occurring in bands in the eastern part of the low pressure system. Bands in the western part of the system and near the center of circulation consist of showers and lower clouds.

Potential Tropical Cyclone Twentytwo will move through an environment unfavorable for development of a tropical cyclone during the next 36 hours. The low pressure system will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C. However, the upper level trough over the Gulf of Mexico will continue to cause strong vertical wind shear. The vertical wind shear is likely to continue to prevent the formation of a tropical depression or a tropical storm. Potential Tropical Cyclone Twentytwo could merge with a cold front off the east coast of the U.S. during the weekend.

The upper level trough over the Gulf of Mexico will steer Potential Tropical Cyclone Twentytwo toward the northeast during the next 36 hours. On its anticipated track, Potential Tropical Cyclone Twentytwo will move across eastern Cuba and the Southeastern Bahamas on Saturday. The low pressure system will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to eastern Cuba, Haiti, and the Dominican Republic. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in parts of Haiti and the Dominican Republic.

Tropical Storm Watches Issued for Jamaica, Haiti, Eastern Cuba and Southeastern Bahamas

The potential risk posed by a low pressure system over the western Caribbean Sea prompted the issuance of Tropical Storm Watches for Jamaica, Haiti, eastern Cuba, the Southeastern Bahamas, and the Turks and Caicos on Thursday afternoon. The U.S. National Hurricane Center designated the low pressure system as Potential Tropical Cyclone Twentytwo. At 4:00 p.m. EST on Thursday the center of Potential Tropical Cyclone Twentytwo was located at latitude 15.2°N and longitude 81.5°W which put it about 365 miles (590 km) west-southwest of Kington, Jamaica. The low pressure system was moving toward the north-northeast at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1004 mb.

Tropical Storm Watches were in effect for Jamaica, Haiti, the Southeastern Bahamas, the Turks and Caicos, and the Cuban provinces of Guantanamo, Santiago de Cuba, Holguin, Granma, and Las Tunas.

A U.S. Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter plane investigated the low pressure system over the western Caribbean Sea on Thursday afternoon. The crew of the plane found that there was a large counterclockwise rotation, but the was not a well defined low level center within that large rotation. There were several smaller counterclockwise rotations within the larger low pressure system. Thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the eastern side of Potential Tropical Cyclone Twentytwo. Bands in the western side of the low pressure system consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.

Potential Tropical Cyclone Twentytwo will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 36 hours. The low pressure system will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C. It will move under the eastern side of an upper level trough over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. The upper level trough will produce southwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of the low pressure system. Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear. The wind shear will inhibit intensification, but the shear may not be strong enough to prevent intensification. Potential Tropical Cyclone Twentytwo is likely to intensify to a tropical storm during the next 36 hours.

The upper level trough over the eastern Gulf of Mexico will steer Potential Tropical Cyclone Twentytwo toward the northeast during the next 36 hours. On its anticipated track, the center of Potential Tropical Cyclone Twentytwo will be near Jamaica on Friday afternoon. The low pressure system will be near eastern Cuba and Haiti on Friday night. It will be over the Southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos on Saturday.

Potential Tropical Cyclone Twentytwo will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to Jamaica, Haiti, eastern Cuba, the Southeastern Bahamas, and the Turks and Caicos. Gusty winds could cause localized electricity outages. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Tropical Storm Fred Makes Landfall in Dominican Republic

Tropical Storm Fred made landfall on the coast of the Dominican Republic on Wednesday afternoon. At 2:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Storm Fred was located at latitude 18.5°N and longitude 70.1°W which put it about 30 miles (50 km) west of Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic. Fred was moving toward the west-northwest at 16 m.p.h. (26 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1006 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Punta Palenque, Dominican Republic to the northern border with Haiti. A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Gonaives, Haiti to the northern border with the Dominican Republic. Tropical Storm Watches were in effect for the Southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos. Tropical Storm Watches were also in effect for the Cuban provinces of Ciego de Avila, Camaguey, Las Tunas, Holguin, Granma, Santiago de Cuba and Guantanamo.

The center of Tropical Storm Fred made landfall on the south coast of the Dominican Republic west of Santo Domingo on Wednesday afternoon. Fred became better organized and a little stronger prior to making landfall. A band of thunderstorms wrapped around the eastern and northern sides of the center of Tropical Storm Fred. Storms near the center generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical storm and the surface pressure decreased slightly. The strongest winds were occurring in the eastern half of Tropical Storm Fred. At the time of landfall winds to tropical storm force extended out 60 miles (95 km) from the center of Fred’s circulation.

Tropical Storm Fred will move around the southern side of a subtropical high pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean. The high will steer Fred toward the west-northwest during the next several days. On its anticipate track Tropical Storm Fred will move across the western part of the Dominican Republic and northern Haiti during the next 24 hours. Fred will drop locally heavy rain and flash floods could occur in some locations.

Mountains in the Dominican Republic and Haiti will significantly disrupt the low level circulation of Tropical Storm Fred. Fred is likely to weaken to a tropical depression during the next 12 hours. The circulation of Tropical Storm Fred in the middle troposphere could survive passage over those mountains. The center of Tropical Storm Fred will move northwest of Haiti on Thursday. The Sea Surface Temperatures of the water northwest of Haiti are near 29°C. If the middle level circulation of Fred survives, it could spin up a new low level center of circulation when it moves back over the warm water. An upper level low near Florida will produce westerly winds that will blow toward the top of Fred’s circulation. Those winds will cause vertical wind shear and they will inhibit re-intensification of Tropical Storm Fred. If the center of Fred remains north of Cuba, it could strengthen back to a tropical storm. Fred could approach the Florida Keys and South Florida on Friday. It could move over the Gulf of Mexico during the weekend.

Marco Strengthens to a Hurricane, Laura Drenches Hispaniola

Former Tropical Storm Marco strengthened into a hurricane on Sunday over the Gulf of Mexico while Tropical Storm Laura dropped drenching rain on Hispaniola.  At 2:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Hurricane Marco was located at latitude 25.3°N and longitude 87.4°W which put it about 280 miles (450 km) south-southeast of the Mouth of the Mississippi River.  Marco was moving toward the north-northwest at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 992 mb.

A Hurricane Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Morgan City, Louisiana to the Mouth of the Pearl River, Mississippi.  Hurricane Watches were in effect for the portion of the coast from Intracoastal City, Louisiana to Morgan City and for New Orleans, Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas.  A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect from the Mouth of the Pearl River to the Mississippi/Alabama border.  A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from the Mississippi/Alabama border to the Alabama/Florida border.

Former Tropical Storm Marco strengthened into a hurricane on Sunday.  A small eye developed at the center of circulation.  A ring of thunderstorms surrounded eye and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Marco.  Storms near the core generated upper level divergence which pumped mass away to the northeast of the hurricane.

The circulation around Hurricane Marco was small.  Winds to hurricane force extended out 15 miles (25 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 70 miles (110 km) from the center.

Hurricane Marco will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 18 hours.  Marco will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  An upper level trough over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico will produce southwesterly winds which will blow toward the top of Hurricane Marco.  Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear, but the shear will not be strong enough to prevent Marco from strengthening during the next 18 hours.

The upper level trough and a subtropical high pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean will steer Hurricane Marco toward the north-northwest during the next day or so.  On its anticipated track Hurricane Marco will approach southeast Louisiana on Monday.  Marco will bring gusty winds and drop locally heavy rain over southeastern Louisiana and southern Mississippi.

Elsewhere, Tropical Storm Laura dropped heavy rain on the Dominican Republic and Haiti.  There were reports of flash floods.  At 2:00 pm. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Storm Laura was located at latitude 19.4°N and longitude 74.3°W which put it about 80 miles (130 km) southeast of Guantanamo, Cuba.  Laura was moving toward the west-northwest at 21 m.p.h. (33 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1004 mb.

Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for the portion of the northern coast of the Dominican Republic from Samana to the border with Haiti and for the entire coast of Haiti.  Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for the Turks and Caicos, the Acklins, Crooked Island, Long Cay, the Inaguas, and the Ragged Islands.  Tropical Storm Warnings were also in effect for the Cuban provinces of Las Tunas, Holguin, Guantanamo, Santiago de Cuba, Granma, Ciego de Avila, Sancti Spiritus, Villa Carla, Cienfuegos, Matanzas, Mayabeque, La Habana, Artemisa, Pinar del Rio and the Isle of Youth.  A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the Florida Keys to the Isle of Youth.  Tropical Storm Watches were also in effect for the Central Bahamas and Andros Island.