Tag Archives: Ciego de Avila

Hurricane Rafael Approaches Western Cuba

Hurricane Rafael was approaching western Cuba on Wednesday morning.  At 10:00 a.m. EST on Wednesday the center of Hurricane Rafael was located at latitude 21.4°N and longitude 81.9°W which put the center about 130 miles (210 km) south-southeast of Havana, Cuba.  Rafael was moving toward the northwest at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 110 m.p.h. (175 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 130 m.p.h. (210 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 960 mb.

A  Hurricane Warning is in effect for the Cuban provinces of Pinar del Rio, Artemisa, La Habana, Mayabeque, Matanzas, and the Isle of Youth.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the Cuban provinces of Villa Clara, Cienfuegos, Sancti Spiritis, and Ciego de Avila.

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the Florida Keys from Key West to Channel 5 Bridge.  A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the Dry Tortugas. 

Hurricane Rafael began to intensify more rapidly on Wednesday morning.  Two concentric eyewalls formed at the center of Rafael’s circulation.  A small inner eye was at the center of Hurricane Rafael.  The inner eye was surrounded by a tight ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the inner eye and eyewall and a larger, outer eyewall formed.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the concentric eyewalls.  Storms near the core of Rafael generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the hurricane.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The circulation around Hurricane Rafael was small.  Wind to hurricane force extended out 20 miles (30 km) from the center of Rafael’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 115 miles (185 km) in the eastern side of Hurricane Rafael.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 60 miles (95 km) in the western side of Rafael.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Hurricane Rafael was 19.2.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 6.8 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 26.0.  Hurricane Rafael was similar in intensity to Hurricane Zeta when Zeta hit Louisiana in 2020.  Rafael was not as big as Zeta was.

Hurricane Rafael will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next few hours.  Rafael will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C. It will move under the middle of an upper level ridge over the Caribbean Sea.  The upper level winds are weak near the middle of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Hurricane Rafael will intensify during the next few hours.  Rafael is likely to strengthen to a major hurricane.

Hurricane Rafael will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system over the western Atlantic Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Rafael toward the northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, the center of Hurricane Rafael will reach western Cuba in a few hours.

Hurricane Rafael will bring strong winds and heavy rain to western Cuba.  Strong winds could cause widespread electricity outages in Cuba.  Heavy rain will cause flash floods in some locations.  Rafael could cause a storm surge of up to 10 feet (3 meters) along the south coast of western Cuba.  Hurricane Rafael will be capable of causing localized major damage.

Rafael Intensifies to a Hurricane Near Cayman Islands

Former Tropical Storm Rafael intensified to a hurricane near the Cayman Islands on Tuesday evening.  At 10:00 p.m. EST on Tuesday the center of Hurricane Rafael was located at latitude 19.7°N and longitude 80.4°W which put the center about 60 miles (95 km) east-northeast of Grand Cayman.  Rafael was moving toward the northwest at 13 m.p.h. (20 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 95 m.p.h. (150 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 985 mb.

A Hurricane Warning was in effect for Grand Cayman, Little Cayman, and Cayman Brac.  A  Hurricane Warning was in effect for the Cuban provinces of Pinar del Rio, Artemisa, La Habana, Mayabeque, Matanzas, and the Isle of Youth.

A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the Cuban provinces of Villa Clara, Cienfuegos, Sancti Spiritis, and Ciego de Avila.

A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the Florida Keys from Key West to Channel 5 Bridge.  A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the Dry Tortugas.  A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the Cuban provinces of Camaguey and Las Tunas.

Former Tropical Storm Rafael intensified to a hurricane on Tuesday evening.  A circular eye with a diameter of 15 miles (17 km) formed at the center of Rafael’s circulation.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Hurricane Rafael.  Storms near the core of Rafael generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the hurricane.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

Winds to hurricane force extended out 20 miles (30 km) in the northeastern quadrant of Hurricane Rafael.  Wind to tropical storm force extended out 115 miles (185 km) in the eastern side of Rafael’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 60 miles (95 km) in the western side of Hurricane Rafael.

Hurricane Rafael will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Rafael will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move under the middle of an upper level ridge over the Caribbean Sea.  The upper level winds are weak near the middle of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Hurricane Rafael will intensify during the next 24 hours.  Rafael could intensify rapidly at times.

Hurricane Rafael will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system over the western Atlantic Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Rafael toward the northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, the center of Hurricane Rafael will move away from the Cayman Islands.  Rafael is likely to reach western Cuba by Wednesday afternoon.

Hurricane Rafael will continue to bring strong winds and heavy rain to the Cayman Islands for the next few hours.  Heavy rain could cause floods in some locations. Rafael could also cause a storm surge of up to 7 feet (2 meters) in the Cayman Islands.  Hurricane Rafael will bring strong winds and heavy rain to western Cuba.  Strong winds could cause widespread electricity outages in Cuba.  Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.  Rafael could cause a storm surge of up to 10 feet (3 meters) along the south coast of western Cuba.

Tropical Storm Rafael Brings Wind and Rain to Jamaica

Tropical Storm Rafael was bringing wind and rain to Jamaica on Tuesday morning.  The center of Rafael was just southwest of Jamaica.  At 7:00 a.m. EST on Tuesday the center of Tropical Storm Rafael was located at latitude 17.4°N and longitude 78.4°W which put the center about 80 miles (130 km) south-southwest of Montego Bay, Jamaica.  Rafael was moving toward the northwest at 13 m.p.h. (20 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 993 mb.

A Hurricane Warning was in effect for Grand Cayman, Little Cayman, and Cayman Brac.  A  Hurricane Warning was in effect for the Cuban provinces of Pinar del Rio, Artemisa, La Habana, Mayabeque, Matanzas, and the Isle of Youth.

A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for Jamaica. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the Cuban provinces of Villa Clara, Cienfuegos, Sancti Spiritis, and Ciego de Avila.

A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the Florida Keys from Key West to Channel 5 Bridge.  A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the Dry Tortugas.  A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the Cuban provinces of Camaguey and Las Tunas.

Tropical Storm Rafael was strengthening on Tuesday morning as it passed near Jamaica.  The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the western and southern sides of the center of Rafael’s circulation.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Tropical Storm Rafael.  Storms near the center of Rafael generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical storm.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The distribution of wind speeds around Tropical Storm Rafael was asymmetrical.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 105 miles (165 km) in the eastern side of Rafael’s circulation.  The winds in the western side of Tropical Storm Rafael were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Storm Rafael will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Rafael will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move under the middle of an upper level ridge over the Caribbean Sea.  The upper level winds are weak near the middle of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Storm Rafael will intensify during the next 24 hours.  Rafael could intensify rapidly at times.  Tropical Storm Rafael is likely to strengthen to a hurricane by Tuesday night.

Tropical Storm Rafael will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system over the western Atlantic Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Rafael toward the northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, the center of Tropical Rafael will reach the Cayman Islands by Tuesday night.  Rafael is likely to reach western Cuba by Wednesday afternoon.

Tropical Storm Rafael will continue to bring strong winds and heavy rain Jamaica for the rest of Tuesday.  Heavy rain is likely to cause floods in some locations.  Rafael is likely to be a hurricane when it moves over the Cayman Islands.  Rafael will bring strong winds and heavy rain to the Cayman Islands.  It could also cause a storm surge of up to 7 feet (2 meters) in the Cayman Islands.  Rafael will be a hurricane when it reaches western Cuba.  Strong winds could cause widespread electricity outages in Cuba.  Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Depression Strengthens to Tropical Storm Rafael

Former Tropical Depression Eighteen strengthened to Tropical Storm Rafael south of Jamaica on Monday afternoon.  At 4:00 p.m. EST on Monday the center of Tropical Storm Rafael was located at latitude 15.5°N and longitude 76.7°W which put the center about 175 miles (280 km) south of Kingston, Jamaica.  Rafael was moving toward the north at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 997 mb.

A Hurricane Warning was in effect for Grand Cayman, Little Cayman, and Cayman Brac,

A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for Jamaica.

A Hurricane Watch was in effect for the Cuban provinces of Pinar del Rio, Artemisa, La Habana, Mayabeque, Matanzas, and the Isle of Youth.

A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the Florida Keys from Key West to Channel 5 Bridge.  A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the Dry Tortugas.  A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the Cuban provinces of Villa Clara, Cienfuegos, Sancti Spiritis, Ciego de Avila, Camaguey and Las Tunas.

Former Tropical Depression Eighteen strengthened on Monday afternoon and the U.S. National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Storm Rafael.  The circulation around Tropical Storm Rafael was organizing rapidly.  The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the center of Rafael’s circulation.  More thunderstorms formed near the center of circulation.  More thunderstorms also developed in bands revolving around the center of Tropical Storm Rafael.  Storms near the center of Rafael generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away fro the tropical storm.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

Tropical Storm Rafael will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Rafael will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C. It will move under the middle of an upper level ridge over the Caribbean Sea.  The upper level winds are weak near the middle of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Storm Rafael will intensify during the next 24 hours.  Rafael could intensify rapidly at times.  Tropical Storm Rafael is likely to strengthen to a hurricane on Tuesday.

Tropical Storm Rafael will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system over the western Atlantic Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Rafael toward the northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, the center of Tropical Rafael will pass near Jamaica on Monday night.  Rafael  will reach the Cayman Islands by Tuesday night.  Rafael is likely to reach western Cuba by Wednesday afternoon.

Tropical Storm Rafael will bring strong winds and heavy rain Jamaica. Heavy rain is likely to cause floods in some locations.  Rafael is likely to be a hurricane when it moves over the Cayman Islands.  Rafael will bring strong winds and heavy rain to the Cayman Islands.  It could also cause a storm surge of up to 7 feet (2 meters) in the Cayman Islands.

Potential Tropical Cyclone Seven Prompts Watches for Leeward Islands

A threat from Potential Tropical Cyclone Seven prompted the issuance of Tropical Storm Watches for some of the Leeward Islands on Friday morning. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Friday the center of Potential Tropical Cyclone Seven was located at latitude 15.3°N and longitude 49.3°W which put it about 840 miles (1350 km) east of the Leeward Islands. The potential tropical cyclone was moving toward the west at 21 m.p.h. (33 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1010 mb.

Tropical Storm Watches were issued for Antigua, Barbuda, St. Kitts and Nevis, Montserrat, Saba and St. Eustatius.

The National Hurricane Center designated a tropical disturbance east of the Leeward Islands as Potential Tropical Cyclone Seven on Friday morning in order to be able to issue watches for the system. The circulation around Potential Tropical Cyclone Seven was still in the early stages of organizing on Friday morning. There was not a well defined low level center of circulation. The strongest thunderstorms were occurring in bands on the western side of the tropical disturbance. There were few thunderstorms in the eastern side of the disturbance.

Potential Tropical Cyclone Seven will move through an environment favorable for the formation of a tropical cyclone during the next several days. It will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C. The disturbance will move through a region where the winds will blow from the east at all levels in the troposphere. The winds near the surface could be stronger near the surface, which could cause some vertical wind shear in the lower levels. The shear might not be too strong and a tropical cyclone is likely to form during the next 48 hours.

Potential Tropical Cyclone Seven will move south of the subtropical high pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean. The high pressure system will steer the tropical disturbance toward the west during the next 36 hours. On its anticipated track Potential Tropical Cyclone Seven will approach the northern Leeward Islands on Saturday night. It could be near Puerto Rico by Sunday night.

Elsewhere, Tropical Depression Fred was moving across central Cuba. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Depression Fred was located at latitude 22.3°N and longitude 78.4°W which put it about 20 miles (30 km) northeast of Moron, Cuba. Fred was moving toward the west-northwest at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1013 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the Florida Keys from Ocean Reef to the Dry Tortugas including Florida Bay. A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Englewood to Ocean Reef, Florida including Florida Bay. Tropical Storm Watches were also in effect for the Cuban provinces of Sancti Spiritis, Villa Clara, Ciego de Avila and Camaguey.

The center of Tropical Depression Fred was moving west-northwest across central Cuba on Friday morning. An upper level low centered over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico was causing westerly winds that were blowing across the top of Fred’s circulation. Those winds were causing moderate vertical wind shear. The wind shear and the increased friction over land were preventing Tropical Depression Fred from strengthening. The upper level low is forecast to weaken during the weekend and Fred could intensify to a tropical storm once the center moves past Cuba. Tropical Depression Fred will move around the western end of the subtropical high pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean and it could move over the Gulf of Mexico on Saturday.

Tropical Depression Fred Prompts Watches for Florida Keys and Southwest Florida

The forecast for Tropical Depression Fred prompted the National Hurricane Center to issue Tropical Storm Watches for the Florida Keys and the coast of Southwest Florida. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Depression Fred was located at latitude 21.3°N and longitude 75.3°W which put it about 70 miles (110 km) east of Holguin, Cuba. Fred was moving toward the west-northwest at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1012 mb.

A Tropical Storm Watch was issued for the Florida Keys from Ocean Reef to the Dry Tortugas. A Tropical Storm Watch was also issued for the portion of the coast from Bonita Beach to Ocean Reef, Florida including Florida Bay. Tropical Storm Watches remained in effect for the Cuban provinces of Ciego de Avila, Camaguey, Holguin, Las Tunas and Granma.

Tropical Depression Fred was spinning just to the north of eastern Cuba on Thursday afternoon. The circulation around Fred was significantly weaker after its passage over mountains in the Dominican Republic and Haiti. A distinct low level rotation was evident on visible satellite images, but there were not a lot of thunderstorms near the center of circulation. New thunderstorms appeared to be developing in bands on the southeastern side of Tropical Depression Fred. Bands in the other parts of Fred consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.

Tropical Depression Fred will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 36 hours. Fred will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C. It will move under the southeastern part of an upper low over Florida. The upper low will produce westerly winds that will blow toward the top of Fred’s circulation. Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear and the shear will inhibit intensification. The southern part of the circulation around Tropical Depression Fred will pass over Cuba. The friction will be greater where the air flows over land and that will also inhibit intensification. Tropical Depression Fred could slowly strengthen if the center stays over the warm water north of Cuba, but intensification is likely to be gradual.

Tropical Depression Fred will move around the western end of a subtropical high pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean. The high will steer Fred toward the west-northwest during the next 24 hours. Fred will move more toward the northwest during the weekend, when it gets closer to the western end of the high pressure system. On its anticipated track the center of Tropical Depression Fred will move near the northern coast of Cuba during the next 24 hours. Fred could approach the Florida Keys by Saturday morning. It will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to the Keys. Fred is likely to move over the Gulf of Mexico during the weekend.

Tropical Storm Fred Makes Landfall in Dominican Republic

Tropical Storm Fred made landfall on the coast of the Dominican Republic on Wednesday afternoon. At 2:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Storm Fred was located at latitude 18.5°N and longitude 70.1°W which put it about 30 miles (50 km) west of Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic. Fred was moving toward the west-northwest at 16 m.p.h. (26 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1006 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Punta Palenque, Dominican Republic to the northern border with Haiti. A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Gonaives, Haiti to the northern border with the Dominican Republic. Tropical Storm Watches were in effect for the Southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos. Tropical Storm Watches were also in effect for the Cuban provinces of Ciego de Avila, Camaguey, Las Tunas, Holguin, Granma, Santiago de Cuba and Guantanamo.

The center of Tropical Storm Fred made landfall on the south coast of the Dominican Republic west of Santo Domingo on Wednesday afternoon. Fred became better organized and a little stronger prior to making landfall. A band of thunderstorms wrapped around the eastern and northern sides of the center of Tropical Storm Fred. Storms near the center generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical storm and the surface pressure decreased slightly. The strongest winds were occurring in the eastern half of Tropical Storm Fred. At the time of landfall winds to tropical storm force extended out 60 miles (95 km) from the center of Fred’s circulation.

Tropical Storm Fred will move around the southern side of a subtropical high pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean. The high will steer Fred toward the west-northwest during the next several days. On its anticipate track Tropical Storm Fred will move across the western part of the Dominican Republic and northern Haiti during the next 24 hours. Fred will drop locally heavy rain and flash floods could occur in some locations.

Mountains in the Dominican Republic and Haiti will significantly disrupt the low level circulation of Tropical Storm Fred. Fred is likely to weaken to a tropical depression during the next 12 hours. The circulation of Tropical Storm Fred in the middle troposphere could survive passage over those mountains. The center of Tropical Storm Fred will move northwest of Haiti on Thursday. The Sea Surface Temperatures of the water northwest of Haiti are near 29°C. If the middle level circulation of Fred survives, it could spin up a new low level center of circulation when it moves back over the warm water. An upper level low near Florida will produce westerly winds that will blow toward the top of Fred’s circulation. Those winds will cause vertical wind shear and they will inhibit re-intensification of Tropical Storm Fred. If the center of Fred remains north of Cuba, it could strengthen back to a tropical storm. Fred could approach the Florida Keys and South Florida on Friday. It could move over the Gulf of Mexico during the weekend.