Tag Archives: Tropical Depression Fred

Grace Intensifies to a Hurricane

Former Tropical Storm Grace intensified to a hurricane west of the Cayman Islands on Wednesday morning. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Hurricane Grace was located at latitude 19.4°N and longitude 82.2°W which put it about 65 miles (105km) west of Grand Cayman. Grace was moving toward the west-northwest at 15 m.p.h. (24 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 992 mb.

A Hurricane Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Cancun to Punta Herrero, Mexico. The Hurricane Warning included Cozumel. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the Cayman Islands. Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for the portions of the coast from Cancun to Campeche, Mexico and from Punta Herrero to Puerto Costa Maya, Mexico. Tropical Storm Watches were in effect for the Cuban provinces of Isla de la Juventud and Pinar del Rio.

Hurricane Grace was intensifying on Wednesday morning. A reconnaissance plane found that an eye with a diameter of 18 miles (29 km) was forming at the center of Grace. The developing eye was surround by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Hurricane Grace. Storms near the core of Grace were generating upper level divergence that was pumping mass away from the hurricane. The removal of mass was causing the surface pressure to decrease. Winds to hurricane force extended out 25 miles (40 km) on the eastern side of Grace. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 115 miles (185 km) from the center of circulation.

Hurricane Grace will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 12 hours. Grace will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C. It will move under the southern side of an upper level ridge centered near Florida. The ridge will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of Grace’s circulation. Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear, but the shear will be too small to prevent intensification. Hurricane Grace will continue to intensify during the next 12 hours. A period of rapid intensification could occur once an inner core with an eye and an eyewall is fully formed at the center of Grace.

Hurricane Grace will move south of a subtropical high pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean. The high will steer Grace toward the west-northwest during the next several days. On its anticipated track Hurricane Grace will approach the Yucatan Peninsula on Wednesday night. Grace will bring strong winds and locally heavy rain. Flash flooding is likely to occur in some locations. Grace will also cause a storm surge along the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula.

Elsewhere, Tropical Depression Fred was dropping heavy rain over parts of the northeastern U.S. and Tropical Storm Henri was passing southwest of Bermuda.

At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Depression Fred was located at latitude 39.5°N and longitude 80.7°W which put it about 90 miles (145 km) south-southwest of Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. Fred was moving toward the northeast at 20 m.p.h. (32 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 25 m.p.h. (40 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1013 mb. Flood Watches and Flash Flood Watches were in effect for parts of the eastern U.S.

At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Storm Henri was located at latitude 30.0°N and longitude 66.6°W which put it about 190 miles (310 km) southwest of Bermuda. Henri was moving toward the west at 8 m.p.h. (10 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 998 mb

Tropical Storm Grace Brings Wind and Rain to Cayman Islands

Tropical Storm Grace brought wind and rain to the Cayman Islands on Wednesday morning. At 8:00 a.m. EDT on Wednuesday the center of Tropical Storm Grace was located at latitude 19.1°N and longitude 81.4°W which put it about 20 miles (30 km) southwest of Grand Cayman. Grace was moving toward the west-northwest at 16 m.p.h. (26 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 993 mb.

A Hurricane Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Cancun to Punta Herrero, Mexico. The Hurricane Warning included Cozumel. A Hurricane Watch was in effect for the Cayman Islands. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the Cayman Islands. Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for the portions of the coast from Cancun to Campeche, Mexico and from Punta Herrero to Puerto Costa Maya, Mexico. Tropical Storm Watches were in effect for the Cuban provinces of Isla de la Juventud and Pinar del Rio.

Tropical Storm Grace was getting better organized on Wednesday morning. A reconnaissance plane was reporting that an eye with a diameter of 18 miles (29 km) was forming at the center of Grace. The developing eye was surround by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Tropical Storm Grace. Storms near the center of circulation were generating upper level divergence that was pumping mass away from the tropical storm. The removal of mass was causing the surface pressure to decrease. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 115 miles (185 km) from the center of Grace.

Tropical Storm Grace will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 18 hours. Grace will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C. It will move under the southern side of an upper level ridge centered near Florida. The ridge will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of Grace’s circulation. Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear, but the shear will be too small to prevent intensification. Tropical Storm Grace is likely to strengthen to a hurricane over the northwestern Caribbean Sea. A period of rapid intensification could occur once an inner core with an eye and an eyewall forms at the center of Grace.

Tropical Storm Grace will move south of a subtropical high pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean. The high will steer Grace toward the west-northwest during the next several days. On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Grace will approach the Yucatan Peninsula on Wednesday night. Grace will be a hurricane when it approaches the Yucatan. It will bring strong winds and locally heavy rain. Flash flooding is likely to occur in some locations. Grace will also cause a storm surge along the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula.

Elsewhere, Tropical Depression Fred was dropping heavy rain over parts of the northeastern U.S. and Tropical Storm Henri was passing south of Bermuda.

At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Depression Fred was located at latitude 38.6°N and longitude 81.8°W which put it about 20 miles (30 km) northwest of Charleston, West Virginia. Fred was moving toward the northeast at 20 m.p.h. (32 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 25 m.p.h. (40 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1011 mb. Flood Watches and Flash Flood Watches were in effect for parts of the eastern U.S.

At 8:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Storm Henri was located at latitude 30.1°N and longitude 65.7°W which put it about 160 miles (260 km) south-southwest of Bermuda. Henri was moving toward the west at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 9980 mb. A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for Bermuda.

Tropical Storm Grace Brings Wind and Rain to Jamaica

Tropical Storm Grace brought wind and rain to Jamaica on Tuesday. At 2:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Storm Grace was located at latitude 18.5°N and longitude 77.5°W which put it about 25 miles (40 km) east of Montego Bay, Jamaica. Grace was moving toward the west at 15 m.p.h. (24 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1005 mb.

A Hurricane Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Cabo Catoche to Punta Allen, Mexico. Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for Jamaica, the Cayman Islands and the Cuban provinces of Santiago de Cuba, Granma, Las Tunas and Camaguey. Tropical Storm Watches were in effect for the Cuban provinces of Ciego de Avila, Sancti Spiritus, Cinefuegos, Matanzas, Pinar del Rio and Isla de la Juventud.

The center of Tropical Storm Grace was moving along the northern coast of Jamaica on Tuesday afternoon. Grace was causing gusty winds over Jamaica and it was also dropping heavy rain. Tropical Storm Grace strengthened earlier on Tuesday as it approached Jamaica. More thunderstorms developed near the center of circulation. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Grace. Storms near the center generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical storm. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 70 miles (110 km) on the eastern side of Grace. The winds in the western half of the circulation were blowing mostly at less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Storm Grace will move south of a subtropical high pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean. The high will steer Grace toward the west during the next several days. On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Grace will move across Jamaica during the next few hours. Grace could reach the Cayman Islands early on Wednesday. Grace could approach the Yucatan Peninsula on Wednesday night.

Tropical Storm Grace is not likely to strengthen during the next few hours while the center of circulation is near the northern coast of Jamaica. Grace will move through an environment favorable for intensification after it moves west of Jamaica. Grace will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C. It will move under the southern side of an upper level ridge centered near Florida. The ridge will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of Grace’s circulation. Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear, but the shear will be too small to prevent intensification. Tropical Storm Grace could strengthen to a hurricane over the northwestern Caribbean Sea. A period of rapid intensification could occur if an inner core with an eye and an eyewall forms at the center of Grace.

Elsewhere, Tropical Depression Fred was dropping heavy rain over parts of the southeastern U.S. and Tropical Storm Henri was strengthening south of Bermuda.

At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Depression Fred was located at latitude 33.4°N and longitude 84.7°W which put it about 30 miles (50 km) south-southwest of Atlanta, Georgia. Fred was moving toward the north-northeast at 17 m.p.h. (28 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 30 m.p.h. (50 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1007 mb.

At 2:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Storm Henri was located at latitude 30.4°N and longitude 64.3°W which put it about 143 miles (215 km) south-southeast of Bermuda. Henri was moving toward the west-southwest at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1000 mb. A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for Bermuda.

Tropical Storm Grace Brings Wind and Rain to Lesser Antilles

Tropical Storm Grace brought wind and rain to the Lesser Antilles on Saturday evening. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Storm Grace was located at latitude 16.8°N and longitude 62.4°W which put it about 170 miles (280 km) east-southeast of St. Croix. Grace was moving toward the west at 20 m.p.h. (32 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (56 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1010 mb.

Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for Puerto Rico including Culebra and Vieques and the U.S. Virgin Islands. Tropical Storm Warnings were also in effect for Saba and St. Eustatius, St. Martin, St.Bathelemy and St. Maarten. A Tropical Storm Warning was also in effect for the portion of the coast from Cabo Caucedo to Samana, Dominican Republic. Tropical Storm Watches were in effect for the portions of the coast from Cabo Caucedo, Dominican Republic to the southern border with Haiti and from Samana, Dominican Republic to the northern border with Haiti. A Tropical Storm Watch was also in effect for the entire coast of Haiti.

The circulation around Tropical Storm Grace was not very well organized on Saturday evening. There was a broad low level center of circulation. The strongest thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the western half of Grace. Bands on the eastern side of the circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Strong easterly winds in the lower levels of the atmosphere were pushing the lower part of Tropical Storm Grace to the west of the middle and upper parts of the circulation. Those winds were causing moderate vertical wind shear and the shear was contributing to the asymmetrical distribution of thunderstorms. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 35 miles (55 km) on the northern side of Grace. Winds in the southern half of the circulation were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Storm Grace will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Grace will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C. The winds in the lower levels could weaken a little and there could be a little less vertical wind shear. If the wind shear decreases, it could allow Tropical Storm Grace to become better organized.

Tropical Storm Grace will move south of the subtropical high pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean. The high will steer Grace toward the west-northwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Grace could approach Puerto Rico by Sunday afternoon. Grace could approach the Dominican Republic on Sunday night.

Elsewhere, the remnants of former Tropical Depression Fred were slowly reorganizing northwest of Cuba. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of former Tropical Depression Fred was located at latitude 23.8°N and longitude 84.3°W which put it about 125 miles (200 km) west-northwest of Havana, Cuba. The remnants of Fred were moving toward the west-northwest at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1012 mb.

The remnants of former Tropical Depression Fred are forecast to reorganize on Sunday and to strengthen back to a tropical storm. Fred is forecast to move toward the northern Gulf Coast. Watches and warnings could be issued for a portion of the coast on Sunday.

Potential Tropical Cyclone Seven Prompts Watches for Leeward Islands

A threat from Potential Tropical Cyclone Seven prompted the issuance of Tropical Storm Watches for some of the Leeward Islands on Friday morning. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Friday the center of Potential Tropical Cyclone Seven was located at latitude 15.3°N and longitude 49.3°W which put it about 840 miles (1350 km) east of the Leeward Islands. The potential tropical cyclone was moving toward the west at 21 m.p.h. (33 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1010 mb.

Tropical Storm Watches were issued for Antigua, Barbuda, St. Kitts and Nevis, Montserrat, Saba and St. Eustatius.

The National Hurricane Center designated a tropical disturbance east of the Leeward Islands as Potential Tropical Cyclone Seven on Friday morning in order to be able to issue watches for the system. The circulation around Potential Tropical Cyclone Seven was still in the early stages of organizing on Friday morning. There was not a well defined low level center of circulation. The strongest thunderstorms were occurring in bands on the western side of the tropical disturbance. There were few thunderstorms in the eastern side of the disturbance.

Potential Tropical Cyclone Seven will move through an environment favorable for the formation of a tropical cyclone during the next several days. It will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C. The disturbance will move through a region where the winds will blow from the east at all levels in the troposphere. The winds near the surface could be stronger near the surface, which could cause some vertical wind shear in the lower levels. The shear might not be too strong and a tropical cyclone is likely to form during the next 48 hours.

Potential Tropical Cyclone Seven will move south of the subtropical high pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean. The high pressure system will steer the tropical disturbance toward the west during the next 36 hours. On its anticipated track Potential Tropical Cyclone Seven will approach the northern Leeward Islands on Saturday night. It could be near Puerto Rico by Sunday night.

Elsewhere, Tropical Depression Fred was moving across central Cuba. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Depression Fred was located at latitude 22.3°N and longitude 78.4°W which put it about 20 miles (30 km) northeast of Moron, Cuba. Fred was moving toward the west-northwest at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1013 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the Florida Keys from Ocean Reef to the Dry Tortugas including Florida Bay. A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Englewood to Ocean Reef, Florida including Florida Bay. Tropical Storm Watches were also in effect for the Cuban provinces of Sancti Spiritis, Villa Clara, Ciego de Avila and Camaguey.

The center of Tropical Depression Fred was moving west-northwest across central Cuba on Friday morning. An upper level low centered over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico was causing westerly winds that were blowing across the top of Fred’s circulation. Those winds were causing moderate vertical wind shear. The wind shear and the increased friction over land were preventing Tropical Depression Fred from strengthening. The upper level low is forecast to weaken during the weekend and Fred could intensify to a tropical storm once the center moves past Cuba. Tropical Depression Fred will move around the western end of the subtropical high pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean and it could move over the Gulf of Mexico on Saturday.

Tropical Depression Fred Prompts Watches for Florida Keys and Southwest Florida

The forecast for Tropical Depression Fred prompted the National Hurricane Center to issue Tropical Storm Watches for the Florida Keys and the coast of Southwest Florida. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Depression Fred was located at latitude 21.3°N and longitude 75.3°W which put it about 70 miles (110 km) east of Holguin, Cuba. Fred was moving toward the west-northwest at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1012 mb.

A Tropical Storm Watch was issued for the Florida Keys from Ocean Reef to the Dry Tortugas. A Tropical Storm Watch was also issued for the portion of the coast from Bonita Beach to Ocean Reef, Florida including Florida Bay. Tropical Storm Watches remained in effect for the Cuban provinces of Ciego de Avila, Camaguey, Holguin, Las Tunas and Granma.

Tropical Depression Fred was spinning just to the north of eastern Cuba on Thursday afternoon. The circulation around Fred was significantly weaker after its passage over mountains in the Dominican Republic and Haiti. A distinct low level rotation was evident on visible satellite images, but there were not a lot of thunderstorms near the center of circulation. New thunderstorms appeared to be developing in bands on the southeastern side of Tropical Depression Fred. Bands in the other parts of Fred consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.

Tropical Depression Fred will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 36 hours. Fred will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C. It will move under the southeastern part of an upper low over Florida. The upper low will produce westerly winds that will blow toward the top of Fred’s circulation. Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear and the shear will inhibit intensification. The southern part of the circulation around Tropical Depression Fred will pass over Cuba. The friction will be greater where the air flows over land and that will also inhibit intensification. Tropical Depression Fred could slowly strengthen if the center stays over the warm water north of Cuba, but intensification is likely to be gradual.

Tropical Depression Fred will move around the western end of a subtropical high pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean. The high will steer Fred toward the west-northwest during the next 24 hours. Fred will move more toward the northwest during the weekend, when it gets closer to the western end of the high pressure system. On its anticipated track the center of Tropical Depression Fred will move near the northern coast of Cuba during the next 24 hours. Fred could approach the Florida Keys by Saturday morning. It will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to the Keys. Fred is likely to move over the Gulf of Mexico during the weekend.