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Tropical Storm Bertha Weakens

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Tropical Storm Bertha weakened on Wednesday morning as it moved toward southeastern Louisiana.  At 2:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Storm Bertha was located at latitude 29.9°N and longitude 89.1°W which put the center about 60 miles (95 km) east of New Orleans, Louisiana.  Bertha was moving toward the west-northwest at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1000 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from the Alabama/Florida border to Morgan City, Louisiana.  A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for New Orleans.  A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Lake Pontchartrain.

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for Lake Maurepas.   A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from Morgan City to Sargent, Texas.

Tropical Storm Bertha weakened on Wednesday morning because of strong northeasterly winds in the upper troposphere.  Those winds were causing strong vertical wind shear, and the wind shear was causing Bertha to weaken.  The vertical wind shear was also affecting the structure of Tropical Storm Bertha.  Most of the bands revolving around the center of Bertha’s circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Thunderstorms were still occurring in bands in the far southwestern part of Tropical Storm Bertha.  There were no thunderstorms near the center of Bertha to generate upper level divergence.  Convergence of mass in the lower atmosphere was causing the surface pressure to increase.

Tropical Storm Berta was still producing sustained winds to tropical storm force.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 105 miles (165 km) in the eastern side of Bertha’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 70 miles (110 km) in the western side of Tropical Storm Bertha.

Tropical Storm Bertha will move through an environment that will be unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Bertha will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move under southeastern part of an upper level ridge that is centered over the South Central U.S.  The upper level ridge will produce strong northeasterly winds that will blow across the top of Bertha’s circulation. Those upper level winds will continue to cause strong vertical wind shear.  Tropical Storm Bertha will continue to weaken during he next 24 hours.

Tropical Storm Bertha will move around the southern side of a high pressure system that is over the southern Mississippi River Valley.  The high pressure system will steer Bertha toward the west during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, the center of Tropical Storm Bertha will move over southeastern Louisiana in a few hours.

Tropical Storm Bertha will bring gusty winds to the central Gulf Coast.  Since the strongest winds are in the southern part of Bertha’s circulation, those winds will remain over the Gulf of Mexico during the next 24 hours.  Bands on the northern side of Tropical Storm Bertha could drop locally heavy rain over parts of southern Alabama, southern Mississippi, and southern Louisiana. Bertha could also cause a storm surge of up to 4 feet (1 meter) along parts of the coast of southeastern Louisiana.

Tropical Storm Bertha Moves West

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Tropical Storm Bertha was moving toward the west over the northern Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday evening.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Storm Bertha was located at latitude 29.4°N and longitude 87.7°W which put the center about 100 miles (160 km) south-southeast of Mobile, Alabama.   Bertha was moving toward the west at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 995 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from the Bay County/Gulf County Line in Florida to Morgan City, Louisiana.  A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for New Orleans.  A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect Lake Pontchartrain.

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for Lake Maurepas.   A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from Morgan City to Cameron, Louisiana.

Tropical Storm Bertha was maintaining its intensity on Tuesday evening in spite of strong northeasterly winds in the upper troposphere.  Those winds were causing moderate vertical wind shear, but the wind shear was not strong enough to cause Bertha to weaken.  The vertical wind shear was affecting the structure of Tropical Storm Bertha.  Thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the southern half of Tropical Storm Bertha.  Bands in the northern half of Bertha’s circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Storms near the center of Bertha generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the south and west of the tropical storm.  The removal of mass in the upper levels was equal to the convergence of mass in the lower levels of the atmosphere.  So, the surface pressure was remaining constant on Tuesday evening.

The strongest winds were occurring in the southeastern part of Tropical Storm Bertha. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 115 miles (185 km) in the eastern side of Bertha’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 45 miles (75 km) in the western side of Tropical Storm Bertha.

Tropical Storm Bertha will move into an environment that will become unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Bertha will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move under southeastern part of an upper level ridge that is centered over the South Central U.S.  The upper level ridge will produce northeasterly winds that will blow across the top of Bertha’s circulation.  Those upper level winds are forecast to get stronger on Wednesday.  Those stronger winds will cause the vertical wind shear to increase.  Tropical Storm Bertha could maintain its intensity during the next few hours.  Bertha is likely to weaken when the vertical wind shear increases.

Tropical Storm Bertha will move around the southern side of a high pressure system that is over the southern Mississippi River Valley.  The high pressure system will steer Bertha toward the west during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, the center of Tropical Storm Bertha will reach southeastern Louisiana on Wednesday.

Tropical Storm Bertha will bring gusty winds to the central Gulf Coast.  Since the strongest winds are in the southeastern part of Bertha’s circulation, those winds will remain over the Gulf of Mexico during the next 24 hours.  Bands on the northern side of Tropical Storm Bertha could drop locally heavy rain over parts of Northwest Florida, southern Alabama, southern Mississippi, and southern Louisiana.  Bertha could also cause a storm surge of up to 4 feet (1 meter) along parts of the coast of southeastern Louisiana.

Tropical Storm Bertha Intensifies

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Tropical Storm Bertha intensified over the northern Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday morning.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Storm Bertha was located at latitude 29.3°N and longitude 86.3°W which put the center about 100 miles (160 km) southeast of Pensacola, Florida.  Bertha was moving toward the north-northwest at 3 m.p.h. (5 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 995 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from the Bay County/Gulf County Line in Florida to the Terrebone Parish/Lafourche Parish Line in Louisiana.

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for New Orleans.  Tropical Storm Watches are in effect for Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas.  A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from the Terrebonne Parish/Lafourche Parish Line to the Vermilion Parish/Cameron Parish Line in Louisiana.

Tropical Storm Bertha intensified on Tuesday morning in spite of strong northeasterly winds in the upper troposphere.  Those winds were causing moderate vertical wind shear, but the wind shear was not strong enough to prevent intensification  The vertical wind shear did affect the structure of Bertha’s circulation.  Thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the southern half of Tropical Storm Bertha.  Bands in the northern half of Bertha’s circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Storms near the center of Bertha generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the south and west of the tropical storm.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The strongest winds were occurring in the southeastern part of Tropical Storm Bertha.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 90 miles (145 km) in the southern part of Bertha’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 45 miles (75 km) in the northern side of Tropical Storm Bertha.

Tropical Storm Bertha will move through an environment that will be marginally favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Bertha will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C.  It will move under southeastern part of an upper level ridge that is centered over the South Central U.S.  The upper level ridge will produce northeasterly winds that will blow across the top of Bertha’s circulation.  Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear. The vertical wind shear will inhibit intensification, but the wind shear may not be strong enough to prevent intensification.  Tropical Storm Bertha could intensify a little more during the next 24 hours.  However,if the northeasterly winds in the upper levels get any stronger, then Bertha will start to weaken.

Tropical Storm Bertha will move around the southern side of a high pressure system that is over the southern Mississippi River Valley.  The high pressure system will steer Bertha slowly toward the west-northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Bertha will move slowly toward southeastern Louisiana.

Tropical Storm Bertha will bring gusty winds to the central Gulf Coast.  Since the strongest winds are in the southeastern part of Bertha’s circulation, those winds will remain over the Gulf of Mexico during the next 24 hours.  Bands on the northern side of Tropical Storm Bertha could drop locally heavy rain over parts of Northwest Florida, southern Alabama, southern Mississippi, and southern Louisiana.  Bertha could also cause a storm surge of up to 4 feet (1 meter) along parts of the coast of southeastern Louisiana.

Depression Strengthens to Tropical Storm Bertha

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Former Tropical Depression Two strengthened to Tropical Storm Bertha over the northern Gulf of Mexico on Monday evening.  A Tropical Storm Warning was issued for a portion of the central Gulf Coast.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Storm Berth was located at latitude 28.2°N and longitude 8593°W which put the center about 140 miles (225 km) south of Panama City, Florida.  Bertha was stationary.  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 999 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from border between Florida and Alabama to the border between Jefferson and Plaquemines Parishes in Louisiana.

A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for New Orleans.  Tropical Storm Watches were in effect for Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas.  A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from the border between Gulf County and Bay County in Florida to the border with Alabama.  A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from the border between Jefferson and Plaquemines Parishes to Morgan City, Louisiana.

Former Tropical Depression Two strengthened to Tropical Storm Bertha on Monday evening.  Reconnaissance planes found winds to tropical storm force in the southern part of Bertha’s circulation.

The distribution of thunderstorms was asymmetrical in Tropical Storm Bertha.  Thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the southern half of Bertha’s circulation.  Bands in the northern half of Tropical Storm Bertha consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Storms near the center of Bertha generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the south and west of the tropical storm.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease on Monday.

The strongest winds were occurring in the southern part of Tropical Storm Bertha.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 70 miles (110 km) in the southern half of Bertha’s circulation.  The winds in the northern half of Tropical Storm Bertha were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Storm Bertha will move through an environment that will be somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Bertha will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C.  It will move under southeastern part of an upper level ridge that is centered over the South Central U.S.  The upper level ridge will produce northeasterly winds that will blow across the top of Bertha’s circulation.  Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear.  The vertical wind shear will inhibit intensification, but the wind shear may not be strong enough to prevent intensification.  Tropical Storm Bertha could intensify gradually during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Storm Bertha will move around the southern side of a high pressure system that is over the southern Mississippi River Valley.  The high pressure system will steer Bertha slowly toward the west-northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Bertha will move slowly toward the central Gulf Coast.

Tropical Storm Bertha could bring gusty winds to the central Gulf Coast.  Bertha could also cause a storm surge of up to 4 feet (1 meter) along parts of the coast.

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from border between Alabama and Florida to the Mouth of the Mississippi River.

Tropical Depression Forms over Eastern Gulf of Mexico

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Tropical Depression Two formed over the eastern Gulf of Mexico on Sunday morning.  The U.S. National Hurricane Center issued a Tropical Storm Watch for a portion of the coast of Northwest Florida.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Depression Two was located at latitude 28.0°N and longitude 85.3°W which put the center about 155 miles (250 km) south of Panama City, Florida.  The tropical depression was moving toward the north-northwest at 2 m.p.h. (3 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 30 m.p.h. (50 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1011 mb.

A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for a portion of the coast of Northwest Florida from the Ochlockonee River to the border with Alabama.

A low pressure system over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico exhibited more organization on Sunday morning and the U.S. National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Depression Two.

Tropical Depression Two was designated when the circulation around a low pressure system previously designated at Invest 91L exhibited more organization.  A distinct low level of circulation was observed on visible satellite images.  Thunderstorms began to form near the low level center.  Other thunderstorms also were developing in bands revolving around the center of Tropical Depression Two.

Tropical Depression Two will move through an environment that will be somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  The tropical depression will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C.  It will move under northwestern part of an upper level low that is near the Florida Peninsula.  The upper low will produce northeasterly winds that will blow across the top of the tropical depression.  Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear.  The vertical wind shear will inhibit intensification, but the wind shear may not be strong enough to prevent intensification.  Tropical Depression Two could intensify gradually during the next 24 hours.  It could strengthen to a tropical storm.

Tropical Depression Two will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system that is over the western Atlantic Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer the tropical depression slowly toward the northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Depression Two will move slowly toward the northern Gulf Coast.

Tropical Depression Two could bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to the northern Gulf Coast during the upcoming week.  Heavy rain could cause floods in some locations.

Tropical Storm Arthur Weakens

Former Tropical Storm Arthur weakened on Wednesday evening as it moved along the coast near Galveston, Texas.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Depression Arthur was located at latitude 29.7°N and longitude 94.5°W which put the center about 35 miles (55 km) north-northeast of Galveston, Texas.  Arthur was moving toward the northeast at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1000 mb.

An upper level trough over the central U.S. was producing westerly winds that were blowing across the top of Tropical Depression Arthur on Wednesday evening.  The upper level winds blew the tops off of many of the thunderstorms in Arthur.  A few thunderstorms were still occurring in bands in the eastern periphery of Arthur’s circulation.  The other bands revolving around the center of Arthur consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.

Tropical Depression Arthur will move around the northwestern side of a high pressure system that extends from the western Atlantic Ocean to over the Gulf of Mexico.  The high pressure system will steer Arthur toward the northeast during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Depression Arthur will move near the border between Texas and Louisiana on Thursday.  Arthur will start to move toward the east by Friday.

Tropical Depression Arthur could interact with a stationary front to drop heavy rain over parts of the Southeast U.S.  Heavy rain could cause floods in some locations.

Flood Watches are in effect for southeast Texas, most of Louisiana, the southern half of Mississippi, central Alabama, Northwest Florida, and northern Georgia.

Tropical Storm Arthur Develops Near Texas Coast

Tropical Storm Arthur developed near the coast of Texas on Wednesday morning.  At 12:30 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Storm Arthur was located at latitude 28.8°N and longitude 95.5°W which put the center about 40 miles (65 km) southwest of Galveston, Texas. Arthur was moving toward the northeast at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 999 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Sargent, Texas to Morgan City Louisiana.

A low pressure system near the coast of Texas, formerly called Potential Tropical Cyclone One, strengthened on Wednesday morning and the U.S. National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Storm Arthur.

The strongest winds were occurring in bands in the eastern and northern sides of Tropical Storm Arthur.

A weather station in Galveston, Texas, (KGLS) reported a sustained wind speed of 39 m.p.h. (63 km/h) and a wind gust of 59 m.p.h. (95 km/h).

NOAA buoy 42035 which is east of Galveston, Texas reported a sustained wind speed of 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and a wind gust of 52 m.p.h. (83 km/h).

A weather station on oil platform Galveston 209A (KGVW) reported a sustained wind speed of 70 m.p.h. (113 km/h) and a wind gust of 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h).  It should be noted that the weather station is 121 feet (37 meters) above sea level.

The distribution of thunderstorms in Tropical Storm Arthur was asymmetrical.  Thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the eastern and northern parts of Arthur’s circulation.  Bands in the western and southern parts of Tropical Storm Arthur consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.

The surface center of Tropical Storm Arthur appeared to be east of a low in the middle troposphere based on visible satellite loops.  The middle level low was producing southwesterly winds that were blowing toward the top of Arthur’s circulation.  Those winds were causing strong vertical wind shear.  The vertical wind shear was causing the asymmetrical distribution of thunderstorms.

The strongest winds were occurring in the bands of thunderstorms in the eastern and northern parts of Tropical Storm Arthur.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 175 miles (280 km) in the eastern half of Arthur’s circulation.  Winds in the western half of Tropical Storm Arthur were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Storm Arthur will move around the northwestern side of a high pressure system that extends from the western Atlantic Ocean to over the Gulf of Mexico.  The high pressure system will steer Arthur toward the northeast during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Arthur will move inland near the border between Texas and Louisiana in a few hours.

Tropical Storm Arthur will move through an environment that will be marginally favorable for intensification during the next few hours.  Arthur will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C.  It will move under the southern part of an upper level trough that is over the central U.S.  The upper level trough will produce westerly winds that will blow toward the top of Arthur’s circulation.  Those winds will cause strong vertical wind shear.  The vertical wind shear will inhibit development, but the wind shear may not be enough to prevent some intensification.  Tropical Storm Arthur could intensify during the next few hours before it makes landfall in Louisiana.

Tropical Storm Arthur will bring gusty winds and heavy rain to parts of the southeastern U.S.  Heavy rain is likely to cause floods in some locations.

Flood Watches are in effect for southeast Texas, most of Louisiana, the southern half of Mississippi, central Alabama, Northwest Florida, and northern Georgia.

Tropical Storm Arthur could also cause a storm surge of up to 4 feet (1 meter) along the coast of Louisiana.

Tropical Storm Warning Issued for Louisiana

The potential risk posed by a low pressure system near Corpus Christi, Texas prompted the U.S. National Hurricane Center to issue a Tropical Storm Warning for a portion of the coast of Louisiana on Tuesday afternoon.  The National Hurricane Center has designated the low pressure system as Potential Tropical Cyclone One.  At 8:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Potential Tropical Cyclone One was located at latitude 27.6°N and longitude 97.3°W which put the center about 15 miles (25 km) south-southeast of Corpus Christi, Texas.  The low pressure system was moving toward the northeast at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 30 m.p.h. (50 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1004 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Sabine Pass to Morgan City, Louisiana.

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from Sargent, Texas to Sabine Pass, Louisiana.

The National Hurricane Center designated a low pressure system over South Texas as Potential Tropical Cyclone One on Tuesday. The distribution of thunderstorms in Potential Tropical Cyclone One was still asymmetrical on Tuesday evening. Thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the eastern side of the low pressure system. The strongest thunderstorms were occurring in bands that were over the Gulf of Mexico. Bands in the western half of the low pressure system consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Storms near the center of circulation generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the low pressure system. The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to slowly decrease.

Potential Tropical Cyclone One will move around the northwestern side of a high pressure system that extends from the western Atlantic Ocean to over the Gulf of Mexico.  The high pressure system will steer the low pressure system toward the northeast during the next 24 hours . On its anticipated track, the low pressure system could move over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico.

If Potential Tropical Cyclone One moves over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico, it will move into an environment that will be marginally favorable for the development of a tropical storm.  The low pressure system will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C.  It will move under the southern part of an upper level trough that is over the eastern U.S.  The upper level trough will produce westerly winds that will blow toward the top of Potential Tropical Cyclone One.  Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear.  The vertical wind shear will inhibit development, but the wind shear may not be enough to prevent the formation of a tropical depression or a tropical storm.

The U.S. National Hurricane Center is indicating that the probability is 70% that a tropical depression or a tropical storm forms over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico. Reconnaissance planes have been tentatively tasked to fly into the the low pressure system on Wednesday, if necessary.

The low pressure system has already dropped heavy rain over parts of South Texas and northern Mexico.

Flood Watches are in effect for South Texas, southeast Texas, most of Louisiana, the southern half of Mississippi, central Alabama, Northwest Florida, and northern Georgia.

Hurricane Helene Strengthens to Cat. 4

Hurricane Helene strengthened to Category 4 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale on Thursday evening.  At 6:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Hurricane Helene was located at latitude 28.0°N and longitude 84.5°W which put the center about 165 miles (270 km) south of Tallahassee, Florida.  Helene was moving toward the north-northeast at 23 m.p.h. (37 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 130 m.p.h. (210 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 155 m.p.h. (250 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 947 mb.

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Anclote River to Mexico Beach, Florida.

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from Anclote River to Englewood, Florida.  The Hurricane Watch includes Tampa Bay.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Anclote River to Flamingo, Florida.  The Tropical Storm Warning includes Tampa Bay.  A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the Lower and Middle Florida Keys west of Channel 5 Bridge.  A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the Dry Tortugas.  A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Mexico Beach to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line, Florida.  A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Flamingo, Florida to Little River Inlet, South Carolina.  A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Lake Okeechobee. 

A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft found that Hurricane Helene was continuing to strengthen to on Thursday evening.  An eye with a diameter of 30 miles (48 km) was at the center of Helene’s circulation.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Hurricane Helene.  Storms near the center of Helene generated strong upper level divergence that pumped large quantities of mass away from the hurricane.  The removal of large quantities of mass was causing the surface pressure to decrease.

The circulation around Hurricane Helene was large.  Winds to hurricane force extended out 60 miles (95 km) from the center of Helene’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 345 miles (555 km) in the eastern side of Hurricane Helene.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 140 miles (225 km) in the western side of Helene’s circulation.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) is 25.1.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 23.6 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) 48.7.  Hurricane Helene is stronger than Hurricane Irma was when Irma hit southwest Florida in 2017.  However, Helene is not quite as big as Irma was.

Hurricane Helene will move through an environment favorable for intensification for the next few hours.  Helene will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C.  It will move under the middle of an upper level ridge over the eastern Gulf of Mexico.  The upper level winds are weak near the middle of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. Hurricane Helene could intensify a little more during the next few hours.

Hurricane Helene will move around the western end of a high pressure system over the western Atlantic Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Helene toward the north-northeast during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Hurricane Helene will make landfall on the coast of northern Florida at Apalachee Bay Thursday evening.  Helene will be a major hurricane when it reaches the coast.

Hurricane Helene will be a major hurricane when it reaches northern Florida.  Helene will be a large and dangerous hurricane.  Hurricane Helene will bring strong winds and heavy rain to northern Florida.  Heavy rain is likely to cause floods.

Flood Watches are in effect for Florida, eastern Alabama, Georgia, western South Carolina, western North Carolina and eastern Tennessee.

Helene could also cause a storm surge of up to 20 feet (6.1 meters) along portions of the west coast of Florida.

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Mexico Beach to Flamingo, Florida.  The Storm Surge Warning includes Tampa Bay and Charlotte Harbor.

An upper level trough over the Mississippi River Valley will steer Hurricane Helene quickly toward the north-northeast after it makes landfall.  Since the circulation around Helene is so large, Hurricane Helene will produce hurricane force winds in inland locations as well.

Hurricane Warnings are in effect for parts of northern Florida, southeastern Alabama and southwestern Georgia.  The Hurricane Warnings include Tallahassee, Florida and Macon, Georgia.

Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect for the Florida Peninsula, northwest Florida eastern Alabama, northern and eastern Georgia, all of South Carolina, southwestern North Carolina, and southeastern Tennessee.  The Tropical Storm Warnings include Atlanta, Georgia and Charleston, South Carolina.

Hurricane Helene is likely to cause widespread electricity outages as it moves inland over the southeastern U.S.

Helene Intensifies to a Major Hurricane

Hurricane Helene intensified to a major hurricane over the eastern Gulf of Mexico on Thursday.  At 2:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Hurricane Helene was located at latitude 26.7°N and longitude 84.9°W which put the center about 205 miles (335 km) south of Apalachicola, Florida.  Helene was moving toward the north-northeast at 16 m.p.h. (26 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 120 m.p.h. (195 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 140 m.p.h. (225 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 959 mb.

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Anclote River to Mexico Beach, Florida.

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from Anclote River to Englewood, Florida.  The Hurricane Watch includes Tampa Bay.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Anclote River to Flamingo, Florida.  The Tropical Storm Warning includes Tampa Bay.  A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the Lower and Middle Florida Keys west of Channel 5 Bridge.  A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the Dry Tortugas.  A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Mexico Beach to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line, Florida.  A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Flamingo, Florida to Little River Inlet, South Carolina.  A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Lake Okeechobee. 

A U.S. Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft found that Hurricane Helene had strengthened to a major hurricane on Thursday afternoon.  An eye with a diameter of 30 miles (48 km) was at the center of Helene’s circulation.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Hurricane Helene.  Storms near the center of Helene generated strong upper level divergence that pumped large quantities of mass away from the hurricane.

The circulation around Hurricane Helene was large.  Winds to hurricane force extended out 60 miles (95 km) from the center of Helene’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 345 miles (555 km) in the eastern side of Hurricane Helene.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 140 miles (225 km) in the western side of Helene’s circulation.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) is 22.1.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 17.6 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) 39.7.  Hurricane Helene is stronger than Hurricane Irma was when Irma hit southwest Florida in 2017.  However, Helene is not as big as Irma was.

Hurricane Helene will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next few hours.  Helene will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C.  It will move under the middle of an upper level ridge over the eastern Gulf of Mexico.  The upper level winds are weak near the middle of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Hurricane Helene is likely to intensify during the next few hours.  Helene could strengthen to Category 4 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale.

Hurricane Helene will move around the western end of a high pressure system over the western Atlantic Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Helene toward the north-northeast during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Hurricane Helene will make landfall on the coast of northern Florida at Apalachee Bay Thursday evening.  Helene will be a major hurricane when it reaches the coast.

Hurricane Helene will be a major hurricane when it reaches northern Florida.  Helene will be a large and dangerous hurricane.  Hurricane Helene will bring strong winds and heavy rain to northern Florida.  Heavy rain is likely to cause floods.

Flood Watches are in effect for Florida, eastern Alabama, Georgia, western South Carolina, western North Carolina and eastern Tennessee.

Helene could also cause a storm surge of up to 20 feet (6.1 meters) along portions of the west coast of Florida.

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Mexico Beach to Flamingo, Florida.  The Storm Surge Warning includes Tampa Bay and Charlotte Harbor.

An upper level trough over the Mississippi River Valley will steer Hurricane Helene quickly toward the north-northeast after it makes landfall.  Since the circulation around Helene is so large, Hurricane Helene will produce hurricane force winds in inland locations as well.

Hurricane Warnings are in effect for parts of northern Florida, southeastern Alabama and southwestern Georgia.  The Hurricane Warnings include Tallahassee, Florida and Macon, Georgia.

Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect for the Florida Peninsula, northwest Florida eastern Alabama, northern and eastern Georgia, all of South Carolina, southwestern North Carolina, and southeastern Tennessee.  The Tropical Storm Warnings include Atlanta, Georgia and Charleston, South Carolina.

Hurricane Helene is likely to cause widespread electricity outages as it moves inland over the southeastern U.S.