Francine Strengthens to a Hurricane Southwest of Louisiana

Former Tropical Storm Francine strengthened to a hurricane southwest of Louisiana on Tuesday evening.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Hurricane Francine was located at latitude 26.4°N and longitude 94.3°W which put the center about 295 miles (475 km) southwest of Morgan City, Louisiana.  Francine was moving toward the northeast at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 979 mb.

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from the Vermilion/Cameron Line to Grand Isle, Louisiana

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for New Orleans, Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Sabine Pass to the Vermilion/Cameron Line, Louisiana.  A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Grand Isle, Louisiana to the Alabama/Florida border.  The Tropical Storm Warning includes New Orleans, Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas.

Reconnaissance aircraft from the U.S. Air Force Reserve and NOAA found that former Tropical Storm Francine had intensified to a hurricane on Tuesday evening.  An eye with a diameter of 15 miles (24 km) was at the center of Hurricane Francine.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Francine’s circulation.  Storms near the core generated upper level divergence that pumped more mass away from the hurricane.  The removal of more mass caused the surface pressure to decrease more rapidly.

The strongest winds were occurring in the eastern side of Hurricane Francine.  Winds to hurricane force extended out 35 miles (55 km) in the eastern side of Francine’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 115 miles (185 km) from the center of Hurricane Francine.

Hurricane Francine will move through an environment very favorable for intensification during the next 18 hours.  Francine will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C.  It will move under the middle of an upper level ridge over the western Gulf of Mexico.  The upper level winds are weak near the middle of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Hurricane Francine will intensify during the next 18 hours.  Francine could intensify rapidly at times now that there is an inner core.

Hurricane Francine will move between a high pressure system that extends from the western Atlantic Ocean to the Gulf of Mexico and an upper level trough over the South Central U.S,  The high pressure system and the upper level trough will steer Francine toward the northeast during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, the center of Hurricane Francine will make landfall on the southeast coast of Louisiana late on Wednesday afternoon.

Hurricane Francine will bring strong winds and heavy rain to Louisiana.   Francine will be capable of causing serious damage.   Widespread outages of electricity are likely.  Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods.  Hurricane Francine will also drop heavy rain over parts of Mississippi, South Alabama and Northwest Florida as it moves inland.

Flood Watches are in effect for parts of Louisiana, Mississippi, South Alabama and Northwest Florida.

Hurricane Francine could cause a storm surge of up to 10 feet (3 meters) along parts of the coast of Louisiana.

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Cameron, Louisiana to the Mississippi/Alabama border.  The Storm Surge Warning includes Vermilion Bay, Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas.

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from the Mississippi/Alabama border to the Alabama/Florida border.  The Storm Surge Watch includes Mobile Bay.

 

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