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Imelda Intensifies to a Hurricane

Former Tropical Storm Imelda intensified to a hurricane over the Atlantic Ocean east of Florida on Tuesday morning. At 8:00 a.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Hurricane Imelda was located at latitude 29.0°N and longitude 76.9°W which put the center about 755 miles (1255 km) west-southwest of Bermuda. Imelda was moving toward the northeast at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 980 mb.

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for Bermuda.

A U.S. Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter plane found that former Tropical Storm Imelda had intensified to a hurricane on Tuesday morning.

The circulation around Hurricane Imelda became more symmetrical on Tuesday morning. Thunderstorms near the center of Imelda’s circulation generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the north and east of the hurricane. The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Hurricane Imelda.

Winds to hurricane force extended out 70 miles (110 km) from the center of Hurricane Imelda. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 185 miles (295 km) from the center of Imelda’s circulation.

Hurricane Storm Imelda will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Imelda will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C. It will move under the eastern side of an upper level trough that is over the southeast U.S. The upper level trough will produce southerly winds that will blow toward the top of Imelda’s circulation. Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear. The moderate vertical wind shear will inhibit intensification, but the wind shear will not be enough to prevent intensification. Hurricane Imelda will intensify during the next 24 hours.

The upper level trough over the southeast U.S. will steer Hurricane Imelda toward the east-northeast during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, Hurricane Imelda will affect Bermuda on Wednesday night.

Hurricane Imelda will bring strong winds and heavy rain to Bermuda. The strong winds could cause electricity outages. Heavy rain could cause flooding.

Elsewhere over the Atlantic Ocean, Hurricane Humberto was weakening west of Bermuda. At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Hurricane Humberto was located at latitude 31.6°N and longitude 69.4°W which put the center about 275 miles (440 km) west of Bermuda. Humberto was moving toward the north-northwest at 17 m.p.h. (28 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 120 m.p.h. (195 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 972 mb.

Tropical Storm Imelda Strengthens

Tropical Storm Imelda strengthened on Monday morning as it moved north of the Bahamas. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Storm Imelda was located at latitude 26.9°N and longitude 77.1°W which put the center about 35 miles (55 km) north of Great Abaco Island, Bahamas. Imelda was moving toward the north at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 988 mb.

Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for the Northwestern Bahamas including Eleuthera, the Abacos, and Grand Bahama Island.

Tropical Storm Imelda strengthened on Monday morning. More thunderstorms developed near the center of Imelda’s circulation. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Tropical Storm Imelda. Storms near the center of Imelda generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical storm. The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The strongest winds were occurring in the northeastern part of Tropical Storm Imelda. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 175 miles (280 km) in the eastern side of Imelda’s circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 90 miles (145 km) in the western side of Tropical Storm Imelda.

Tropical Storm Imelda will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Imelda will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C. It will move under the eastern side of an upper level trough that is over the Southeast U.S. The upper level trough will produce southerly winds that will blow toward the top of Imelda”s circulation. Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear. The vertical wind shear will inhibit intensification, but the wind shear will not be enough to prevent intensification. Tropical Storm Imelda will intensify during the next 24 hours. Imelda could intensify rapidly at times. Tropical Storm Imelda will intensify to a hurricane by Tuesday.

The upper level trough west of Florida will steer Tropical Storm Imelda toward the north during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Imelda will remain east of South Florida.

Elsewhere over the Atlantic Ocean, Hurricane Humberto was completing an eyewall replacement cycle. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Monday the center of Hurricane Humberto was located at latitude 28.0°N and longitude 67.6°W which put the center about 340 miles (550 km) south-southwest of Bermuda. Humberto was moving toward the west-northwest at 13 m.p.h. (21 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 145 m.p.h. (235 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 175 m.p.h. (280 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 940 mb.

A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for Bermuda.

Depression Strengthens to Tropical Storm Imelda

Former Tropical Depression Nine strengthened to Tropical Storm Imelda over the Bahamas on Sunday afternoon. At 2:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Storm Imelda was located at latitude 23.9°N and longitude 77.3°W which put the center about 105 miles (165 km) south of Nassau, Bahamas. Imelda was moving toward the north at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 998 mb.

Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for the Central Bahamas including Cat Island, the Exumas, Long Island, Rum Cay, and San Salvador.

Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for the Northwestern Bahamas including Eleuthera, New Providence, the Abacos, the Berry Islands, Andros Island, and Grand Bahama Island.

A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from the Palm Beach/Martin County Line to the Flagler/Volusia County Line, Florida.

A U.S. Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter reconnaissance plane found on Sunday afternoon that former Tropical Depression Nine had strengthened. Based on data collected by the reconnaissance plane, the U.S. National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Storm Imelda.

More thunderstorms were forming near the center of Tropical Storm Imelda on Sunday afternoon. However, the distribution of thunderstorms in Imelda was asymmetrical. Thunderstorms were occurring mainly in bands in the eastern side of Imelda’s circulation. Bands in the western side of Tropical Storm Imelda consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.

Winds to tropical storm force extended out 30 miles (50 km) from the center of Tropical Storm Imelda.

Tropical Storm Imelda will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Imelda will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C. It will move under the eastern side of an upper level trough that is west of Florida. The upper level trough will produce southerly winds that will blow toward the top of Imelda”s circulation. Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear. The vertical wind shear will inhibit intensification, but the wind shear will not be enough to prevent intensification. Tropical Storm Imelda will intensify during the next 24 hours.

The upper level trough west of Florida will steer Tropical Storm Imelda toward the north during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Imelda will move across the Central and Northwestern Bahamas.

Tropical Storm Imelda will bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to the Central and Northwestern Bahamas. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Elsewhere over the Atlantic Ocean, powerful Hurricane Humberto was passing south of Bermuda. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Hurricane Humberto was located at latitude 24.6°N and longitude 64.3°W which put the center about 535 miles (855 km) south of Bermuda. Humberto was moving toward the west-northwest at 13 m.p.h. (21 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 150 m.p.h. (240 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 180 m.p.h. (290 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 934 mb.

Hurricane Humberto Intensifies to Cat. 5

Hurricane Humberto intensified to Category 5 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale south of Bermuda on Saturday afternoon. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Hurricane Humberto was located at latitude 22.9°N and longitude 61.1°W which put the center about 685 miles (1105 km) south-southeast of Bermuda. Humberto was moving toward the west-northwest at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 160 m.p.h. (260 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 190 m.p.h. (305 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 925 mb.

Hurricane Humberto intensified to Category 5 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale on Saturday afternoon. A circular eye with a diameter of 12 miles (19 km) was at the center of Humberto’s circulation. The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Hurricane Humberto. Storms near the center of Humberto generated strong upper level divergence that pumped large quantities of mass away from the hurricane. The removal of large quantities of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease rapidly.

The circulation around Hurricane Humberto was very symmetrical. Winds to hurricane force extended out 25 miles (40 km) from the center of Humberto’s circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 125 miles (200 km) from the center of Hurricane Humberto.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Hurricane Humberto is 35.0. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 10.7 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 45.7. Hurricane Humberto is similar in intensity to Hurricane Michael when Michael hit Northwest Florida in 2018. Humberto is slightly smaller than Michael was.

Hurricane Humberto will move through an environment favorable for an intense hurricane during the next 24 hours. Humberto will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C. It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and the will be little vertical wind shear. Hurricane Humberto could intensify during the next 24 hours. However, the inner end of a rainband is likely to wrap around the existing eye and eyewall. The formation of concentric eyewalls would start an eyewall replacement cycle. An eyewall replacement cycle would cause Humberto to weaken, at least temporarily.

Hurricane Humberto will move around the western part of a high pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Humberto toward the northwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, Hurricane Humberto will pass far to the south of Bermuda on Sunday.

Elsewhere over the Atlantic Ocean, Tropical Depression Nine formed north of eastern Cuba. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Depression Nine was located at latitude 22.2°N and longitude 76.5°W which put the center about 215 miles (345 km) south-southeast of Nassau,, Bahamas. The tropical depression was moving toward the northwest at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1005 mb.

Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for the Central Bahamas including Cat Island, the Exumas, Long Island, Rum Cay, and San Salvador.

Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for the Northwestern Bahamas including Eleuthera, New Providence, the Abacos, the Berry Islands, Andros Island, and Grand Bahama Island.

A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from the Palm Beach/Martin County Line to the Flagler/Volusia County Line, Florida.

Low Pressure System Moves Along Northern Gulf Coast

A low pressure system designated as Invest 93L moved along the northern Gulf Coast on Wednesday. At 2:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of a low pressure system designated as Invest 93L was located at latitude 30.1°N and longitude 85.9°W which put the center about 30 miles (50 km) southeast of Destin, Florida. Invest 93L was moving toward the west at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 30 m.p.h. (50 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1012 mb.

The center of a low pressure system designated as Invest 93L moved along the northern Gulf Coast on Wednesday. The distribution of thunderstorms in Invest 93L continued to be asymmetrical. Thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the southwestern quadrant of the low pressure system. Much of the heavier rain was falling over the Gulf of Mexico. Bands in the other parts of Invest 93L consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.

The low pressure system designated as Invest 93L will move around the southern side of a high pressure system over the southeastern U.S. The high pressure system will steer Invest 93L toward the west during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, Invest 93L will move toward southern Louisiana.

Invest 93L will move through an environment marginally favorable for the development of a tropical cyclone during the next 24 hours. Invest 93L will move over water where where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C. It will move under the southern part of an upper level ridge over the southeastern U.S. The upper level ridge will produce northeasterly winds that would blow toward the top of Invest 93L. Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear. The vertical wind shear will inhibit the development of a tropical cyclone. However, the wind shear might not be enough to prevent Invest 93L from developing into a tropical depression, if the center remains over water.

Invest 93L could drop heavy rain over parts of southern Mississippi and southern Louisiana.

Flood Watches are in effect for parts of southern Mississippi and southern Louisiana.

Low Pressure System Moves Over Northern Florida

A low pressure system designated as Invest 93L moved over northern Florida on Tuesday. At 2:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of a low pressure system designated as Invest 93L was located at latitude 29.8°N and longitude 81.2°W which put the center about 10 miles (15 km) southeast of St. Augustine, Florida. Invest 93L was moving toward the west at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 30 m.p.h. (50 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1013 mb.

The center of a low pressure system designated as Invest 93L moved over the coast of northern Florida between St. Augustine and Daytona Beach on Tuesday afternoon. The distribution of thunderstorms in Invest 93L was asymmetrical. Thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the southwestern quadrant of the low pressure system. Those thunderstorms were dropping heavy rain in some locations. Bands in the other parts of Invest 93L consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.

Flood Watches were in effect for parts of the Florida Peninsula. The region under Flood Watches extended from south of Gainesville to north of Sebring, and it included Orlando, Tampa and St. Petersburg.

If the center of Invest 93L moves over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico, it could move into an environment somewhat favorable for the development of a tropical cyclone on Wednesday. Invest 93L would move over water where where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C. It would move under the southeastern part of an upper level ridge over the southeastern U.S. The upper level ridge would produce northeasterly winds that would blow toward the top of Invest 93L. Those winds would cause moderate vertical wind shear. The vertical wind shear would inhibit the development of a tropical cyclone. However, the wind shear might not be enough to prevent Invest 93L from developing into a tropical cyclone.

A U.S. Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter reconnaissance plane is tentatively tasked with investigating the low pressure system on Wednesday afternoon, if necessary.

Low Pressure System Develops East of Florida

A low pressure system developed over the Atlantic Ocean east of Florida on Monday. The low pressure system has been designated as Invest 93L. At 2:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of a low pressure system designated as Invest 93L was located at latitude 29.6°N and longitude 78.0°W which put the center about 200 miles (325 km) east-northeast of Daytona Beach, Florida. Invest 93L was moving toward the west-southwest at 4 m.p.h. (6 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 25 m.p.h. (40 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1016 mb.

A low pressure system developed over the Atlantic Ocean east of Florida on Monday. Visible satellite images showed evidence of a center of circulation and of bands of showers and thunderstorms. The distribution of thunderstorms around the low pressure system was asymmetrical. Thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the southern part of the low pressure system. Bands in the northern part of the system consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.

The low pressure system designated as Invest 93L will move around the southern side of a high pressure system over the eastern U.S. The high pressure system will steer Invest 93L toward the west during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, Invest 93L will move toward the coast of northeastern Florida.

The low pressure system will move through an environment somewhat favorable for the development of a tropical cyclone during the next 24 hours. Invest 93L will move over water where where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C. It will move under the southeastern part of an upper level ridge over the southeastern U.S. The upper level ridge will produce northeasterly winds that will blow toward the top of Invest 93L. Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear. The vertical wind shear will inhibit the development of a tropical cyclone. However, the wind shear may not be enough to prevent Invest 93L from developing into a tropical cyclone.

A U.S. Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter reconnaissance plane is tentatively tasked with investigating the low pressure system on Tuesday afternoon, if necessary.

Even if Invest 93L does not develop into a Tropical Cyclone before it reaches Florida, the low pressure system will drop heavy rain over parts of central and south Florida. Prolonged periods of heavy rain could cause floods in some locations.

Hurricane Rafael Hits Western Cuba

Hurricane Rafael hit western Cuba late on Wednesday afternoon. At 4:00 p.m. EST on Wednesday the center of Hurricane Rafael was located at latitude 22.6°N and longitude 82.7°W which put the center about 45 miles (75 km) south-southwest of Havana, Cuba. Rafael was moving toward the northwest at 13 m.p.h. (20 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 115 m.p.h. (185 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 140 m.p.h. (220 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 950 mb.

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for the Cuban provinces of Pinar del Rio, Artemisa, La Habana, Mayabeque, Matanzas, and the Isle of Youth.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the Cuban provinces of Villa Clara, and Cienfuegos. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the Florida Keys from Key West to Channel 5 Bridge. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the Dry Tortugas.

Hurricane Rafael intensified to a major hurricane on Wednesday before it hit western Cuba. Concentric eyewalls formed in the core of Rafael’s circulation. An eyewall replacement cycle started, but the inner eyewall was still intact when Hurricane Rafael hit western Cuba. Since the inner eyewall was still intact, Rafael did not weaken before it hit Cuba.

Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the concentric eyewalls. Storms near the core of Rafael generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the hurricane. The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The circulation around Hurricane Rafael was small. Wind to hurricane force extended out 30 miles (50 km) from the center of Rafael’s circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 115 miles (185 km) in the eastern side of Hurricane Rafael. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 60 miles (95 km) in the western side of Rafael.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Hurricane Rafael was 20.6. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 8.8 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 29.4. Hurricane Rafael was similar in intensity to Hurricane Delta when Delta hit Louisiana in 2020. Rafael was not as big as Delta was.

Hurricane Rafael will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system over the western Atlantic Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Rafael toward the west-northwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, the center of Hurricane Rafael will move across western Cuba during the next few few hours. Rafael will move over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico on Thursday.

Hurricane Rafael will bring strong winds and heavy rain to western Cuba. Strong winds could cause widespread electricity outages in Cuba. Heavy rain will cause flash floods in some locations. Rafael could cause a storm surge of up to 10 feet (3 meters) along the south coast of western Cuba. Hurricane Rafael will be capable of causing localized major damage.

Hurricane Rafael will weaken as it moves across western Cuba. Rafael will move into an environment somewhat favorable for intensification after it moves north of Cuba. Rafael will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C. It will move under the eastern periphery of a large upper level trough that extends from the North Central U.S. to the Southwest U.S. The upper level trough will produce southwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Rafael’s circulation. Those winds will cause the vertical wind shear to increase but the wind shear may not be enough to prevent intensification. Hurricane Rafael will could intensify on Thursday after it moves north of Cuba.

Hurricane Rafael Approaches Western Cuba

Hurricane Rafael was approaching western Cuba on Wednesday morning. At 10:00 a.m. EST on Wednesday the center of Hurricane Rafael was located at latitude 21.4°N and longitude 81.9°W which put the center about 130 miles (210 km) south-southeast of Havana, Cuba. Rafael was moving toward the northwest at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 110 m.p.h. (175 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 130 m.p.h. (210 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 960 mb.

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for the Cuban provinces of Pinar del Rio, Artemisa, La Habana, Mayabeque, Matanzas, and the Isle of Youth.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the Cuban provinces of Villa Clara, Cienfuegos, Sancti Spiritis, and Ciego de Avila.

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the Florida Keys from Key West to Channel 5 Bridge. A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the Dry Tortugas.

Hurricane Rafael began to intensify more rapidly on Wednesday morning. Two concentric eyewalls formed at the center of Rafael’s circulation. A small inner eye was at the center of Hurricane Rafael. The inner eye was surrounded by a tight ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the inner eye and eyewall and a larger, outer eyewall formed. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the concentric eyewalls. Storms near the core of Rafael generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the hurricane. The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The circulation around Hurricane Rafael was small. Wind to hurricane force extended out 20 miles (30 km) from the center of Rafael’s circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 115 miles (185 km) in the eastern side of Hurricane Rafael. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 60 miles (95 km) in the western side of Rafael.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Hurricane Rafael was 19.2. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 6.8 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 26.0. Hurricane Rafael was similar in intensity to Hurricane Zeta when Zeta hit Louisiana in 2020. Rafael was not as big as Zeta was.

Hurricane Rafael will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next few hours. Rafael will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C. It will move under the middle of an upper level ridge over the Caribbean Sea. The upper level winds are weak near the middle of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. Hurricane Rafael will intensify during the next few hours. Rafael is likely to strengthen to a major hurricane.

Hurricane Rafael will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system over the western Atlantic Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Rafael toward the northwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, the center of Hurricane Rafael will reach western Cuba in a few hours.

Rafael Intensifies to a Hurricane Near Cayman Islands

Former Tropical Storm Rafael intensified to a hurricane near the Cayman Islands on Tuesday evening. At 10:00 p.m. EST on Tuesday the center of Hurricane Rafael was located at latitude 19.7°N and longitude 80.4°W which put the center about 60 miles (95 km) east-northeast of Grand Cayman. Rafael was moving toward the northwest at 13 m.p.h. (20 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 95 m.p.h. (150 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 985 mb.

A Hurricane Warning was in effect for Grand Cayman, Little Cayman, and Cayman Brac. A Hurricane Warning was in effect for the Cuban provinces of Pinar del Rio, Artemisa, La Habana, Mayabeque, Matanzas, and the Isle of Youth.

A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the Cuban provinces of Villa Clara, Cienfuegos, Sancti Spiritis, and Ciego de Avila.

A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the Florida Keys from Key West to Channel 5 Bridge. A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the Dry Tortugas. A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the Cuban provinces of Camaguey and Las Tunas.

Former Tropical Storm Rafael intensified to a hurricane on Tuesday evening. A circular eye with a diameter of 15 miles (17 km) formed at the center of Rafael’s circulation. The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Hurricane Rafael. Storms near the core of Rafael generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the hurricane. The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

Winds to hurricane force extended out 20 miles (30 km) in the northeastern quadrant of Hurricane Rafael. Wind to tropical storm force extended out 115 miles (185 km) in the eastern side of Rafael’s circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 60 miles (95 km) in the western side of Hurricane Rafael.

Hurricane Rafael will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Rafael will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C. It will move under the middle of an upper level ridge over the Caribbean Sea. The upper level winds are weak near the middle of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. Hurricane Rafael will intensify during the next 24 hours. Rafael could intensify rapidly at times.

Hurricane Rafael will continue to bring strong winds and heavy rain to the Cayman Islands for the next few hours. Heavy rain could cause floods in some locations. Rafael could also cause a storm surge of up to 7 feet (2 meters) in the Cayman Islands. Hurricane Rafael will bring strong winds and heavy rain to western Cuba. Strong winds could cause widespread electricity outages in Cuba. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations. Rafael could cause a storm surge of up to 10 feet (3 meters) along the south coast of western Cuba.

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