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Tropical Storm Bertha Moves West

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Tropical Storm Bertha was moving toward the west over the northern Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday evening.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Storm Bertha was located at latitude 29.4°N and longitude 87.7°W which put the center about 100 miles (160 km) south-southeast of Mobile, Alabama.   Bertha was moving toward the west at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 995 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from the Bay County/Gulf County Line in Florida to Morgan City, Louisiana.  A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for New Orleans.  A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect Lake Pontchartrain.

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for Lake Maurepas.   A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from Morgan City to Cameron, Louisiana.

Tropical Storm Bertha was maintaining its intensity on Tuesday evening in spite of strong northeasterly winds in the upper troposphere.  Those winds were causing moderate vertical wind shear, but the wind shear was not strong enough to cause Bertha to weaken.  The vertical wind shear was affecting the structure of Tropical Storm Bertha.  Thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the southern half of Tropical Storm Bertha.  Bands in the northern half of Bertha’s circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Storms near the center of Bertha generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the south and west of the tropical storm.  The removal of mass in the upper levels was equal to the convergence of mass in the lower levels of the atmosphere.  So, the surface pressure was remaining constant on Tuesday evening.

The strongest winds were occurring in the southeastern part of Tropical Storm Bertha. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 115 miles (185 km) in the eastern side of Bertha’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 45 miles (75 km) in the western side of Tropical Storm Bertha.

Tropical Storm Bertha will move into an environment that will become unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Bertha will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move under southeastern part of an upper level ridge that is centered over the South Central U.S.  The upper level ridge will produce northeasterly winds that will blow across the top of Bertha’s circulation.  Those upper level winds are forecast to get stronger on Wednesday.  Those stronger winds will cause the vertical wind shear to increase.  Tropical Storm Bertha could maintain its intensity during the next few hours.  Bertha is likely to weaken when the vertical wind shear increases.

Tropical Storm Bertha will move around the southern side of a high pressure system that is over the southern Mississippi River Valley.  The high pressure system will steer Bertha toward the west during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, the center of Tropical Storm Bertha will reach southeastern Louisiana on Wednesday.

Tropical Storm Bertha will bring gusty winds to the central Gulf Coast.  Since the strongest winds are in the southeastern part of Bertha’s circulation, those winds will remain over the Gulf of Mexico during the next 24 hours.  Bands on the northern side of Tropical Storm Bertha could drop locally heavy rain over parts of Northwest Florida, southern Alabama, southern Mississippi, and southern Louisiana.  Bertha could also cause a storm surge of up to 4 feet (1 meter) along parts of the coast of southeastern Louisiana.

Tropical Storm Bertha Intensifies

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Tropical Storm Bertha intensified over the northern Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday morning.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Storm Bertha was located at latitude 29.3°N and longitude 86.3°W which put the center about 100 miles (160 km) southeast of Pensacola, Florida.  Bertha was moving toward the north-northwest at 3 m.p.h. (5 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 995 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from the Bay County/Gulf County Line in Florida to the Terrebone Parish/Lafourche Parish Line in Louisiana.

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for New Orleans.  Tropical Storm Watches are in effect for Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas.  A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from the Terrebonne Parish/Lafourche Parish Line to the Vermilion Parish/Cameron Parish Line in Louisiana.

Tropical Storm Bertha intensified on Tuesday morning in spite of strong northeasterly winds in the upper troposphere.  Those winds were causing moderate vertical wind shear, but the wind shear was not strong enough to prevent intensification  The vertical wind shear did affect the structure of Bertha’s circulation.  Thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the southern half of Tropical Storm Bertha.  Bands in the northern half of Bertha’s circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Storms near the center of Bertha generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the south and west of the tropical storm.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The strongest winds were occurring in the southeastern part of Tropical Storm Bertha.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 90 miles (145 km) in the southern part of Bertha’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 45 miles (75 km) in the northern side of Tropical Storm Bertha.

Tropical Storm Bertha will move through an environment that will be marginally favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Bertha will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C.  It will move under southeastern part of an upper level ridge that is centered over the South Central U.S.  The upper level ridge will produce northeasterly winds that will blow across the top of Bertha’s circulation.  Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear. The vertical wind shear will inhibit intensification, but the wind shear may not be strong enough to prevent intensification.  Tropical Storm Bertha could intensify a little more during the next 24 hours.  However,if the northeasterly winds in the upper levels get any stronger, then Bertha will start to weaken.

Tropical Storm Bertha will move around the southern side of a high pressure system that is over the southern Mississippi River Valley.  The high pressure system will steer Bertha slowly toward the west-northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Bertha will move slowly toward southeastern Louisiana.

Tropical Storm Bertha will bring gusty winds to the central Gulf Coast.  Since the strongest winds are in the southeastern part of Bertha’s circulation, those winds will remain over the Gulf of Mexico during the next 24 hours.  Bands on the northern side of Tropical Storm Bertha could drop locally heavy rain over parts of Northwest Florida, southern Alabama, southern Mississippi, and southern Louisiana.  Bertha could also cause a storm surge of up to 4 feet (1 meter) along parts of the coast of southeastern Louisiana.

Depression Strengthens to Tropical Storm Bertha

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Former Tropical Depression Two strengthened to Tropical Storm Bertha over the northern Gulf of Mexico on Monday evening.  A Tropical Storm Warning was issued for a portion of the central Gulf Coast.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Storm Berth was located at latitude 28.2°N and longitude 8593°W which put the center about 140 miles (225 km) south of Panama City, Florida.  Bertha was stationary.  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 999 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from border between Florida and Alabama to the border between Jefferson and Plaquemines Parishes in Louisiana.

A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for New Orleans.  Tropical Storm Watches were in effect for Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas.  A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from the border between Gulf County and Bay County in Florida to the border with Alabama.  A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from the border between Jefferson and Plaquemines Parishes to Morgan City, Louisiana.

Former Tropical Depression Two strengthened to Tropical Storm Bertha on Monday evening.  Reconnaissance planes found winds to tropical storm force in the southern part of Bertha’s circulation.

The distribution of thunderstorms was asymmetrical in Tropical Storm Bertha.  Thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the southern half of Bertha’s circulation.  Bands in the northern half of Tropical Storm Bertha consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Storms near the center of Bertha generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the south and west of the tropical storm.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease on Monday.

The strongest winds were occurring in the southern part of Tropical Storm Bertha.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 70 miles (110 km) in the southern half of Bertha’s circulation.  The winds in the northern half of Tropical Storm Bertha were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Storm Bertha will move through an environment that will be somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Bertha will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C.  It will move under southeastern part of an upper level ridge that is centered over the South Central U.S.  The upper level ridge will produce northeasterly winds that will blow across the top of Bertha’s circulation.  Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear.  The vertical wind shear will inhibit intensification, but the wind shear may not be strong enough to prevent intensification.  Tropical Storm Bertha could intensify gradually during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Storm Bertha will move around the southern side of a high pressure system that is over the southern Mississippi River Valley.  The high pressure system will steer Bertha slowly toward the west-northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Bertha will move slowly toward the central Gulf Coast.

Tropical Storm Bertha could bring gusty winds to the central Gulf Coast.  Bertha could also cause a storm surge of up to 4 feet (1 meter) along parts of the coast.

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from border between Alabama and Florida to the Mouth of the Mississippi River.

Tropical Depression Forms over Eastern Gulf of Mexico

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Tropical Depression Two formed over the eastern Gulf of Mexico on Sunday morning.  The U.S. National Hurricane Center issued a Tropical Storm Watch for a portion of the coast of Northwest Florida.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Depression Two was located at latitude 28.0°N and longitude 85.3°W which put the center about 155 miles (250 km) south of Panama City, Florida.  The tropical depression was moving toward the north-northwest at 2 m.p.h. (3 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 30 m.p.h. (50 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1011 mb.

A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for a portion of the coast of Northwest Florida from the Ochlockonee River to the border with Alabama.

A low pressure system over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico exhibited more organization on Sunday morning and the U.S. National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Depression Two.

Tropical Depression Two was designated when the circulation around a low pressure system previously designated at Invest 91L exhibited more organization.  A distinct low level of circulation was observed on visible satellite images.  Thunderstorms began to form near the low level center.  Other thunderstorms also were developing in bands revolving around the center of Tropical Depression Two.

Tropical Depression Two will move through an environment that will be somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  The tropical depression will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C.  It will move under northwestern part of an upper level low that is near the Florida Peninsula.  The upper low will produce northeasterly winds that will blow across the top of the tropical depression.  Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear.  The vertical wind shear will inhibit intensification, but the wind shear may not be strong enough to prevent intensification.  Tropical Depression Two could intensify gradually during the next 24 hours.  It could strengthen to a tropical storm.

Tropical Depression Two will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system that is over the western Atlantic Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer the tropical depression slowly toward the northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Depression Two will move slowly toward the northern Gulf Coast.

Tropical Depression Two could bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to the northern Gulf Coast during the upcoming week.  Heavy rain could cause floods in some locations.

Low Pressure over Eastern Gulf of Mexico

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A low pressure system formed over the Eastern Gulf of Mexico on Saturday.  At 2:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of The low pressure system was located at latitude 26.6°N and longitude 84.5°W which put the center about 125 miles (200 km) west of St. Petersburg, Florida.  The low pressure system was moving toward the northwest at 4 m.p.h. (6 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 25 m.p.h. (40 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1015 mb.

The U.S. National Weather Service designated the low pressure system over the eastern Gulf of Mexico as Invest 91L.

A large but weak surface low pressure system formed over the eastern Gulf of Mexico on Saturday.  The circulation around the low pressure system covered much of the eastern Gulf of Mexico.  There were several smaller counterclockwise circulations rotating around the periphery of the large surface low.  Those smaller circulations had formed inside clusters of thunderstorms.  There were not many thunderstorms near the center of the large surface low.  There were several broken bands of showers and thunderstorms revolving around the large low.

The large low pressure system will move through an environment somewhat favorable for the formation of a tropical depression during the next 24 hours.  The low pressure system will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C.  It will move under northern part of an upper level low that is over the eastern Gulf of Mexico.  The upper low will produce easterly winds that will blow across the top of the surface low pressure system.  Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear.  The vertical wind shear will inhibit the formation of a tropical depression, but the shear may not be strong enough to prevent that formation.  The U.S. National Hurricane is indicating the probability is 40% that a tropical depression forms.

The low pressure system will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system that is over the western Atlantic Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer the low pressure system slowly toward the northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, the surface low pressure will move toward the northern Gulf Coast.

Tropical Storm Arthur Weakens

Former Tropical Storm Arthur weakened on Wednesday evening as it moved along the coast near Galveston, Texas.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Depression Arthur was located at latitude 29.7°N and longitude 94.5°W which put the center about 35 miles (55 km) north-northeast of Galveston, Texas.  Arthur was moving toward the northeast at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1000 mb.

An upper level trough over the central U.S. was producing westerly winds that were blowing across the top of Tropical Depression Arthur on Wednesday evening.  The upper level winds blew the tops off of many of the thunderstorms in Arthur.  A few thunderstorms were still occurring in bands in the eastern periphery of Arthur’s circulation.  The other bands revolving around the center of Arthur consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.

Tropical Depression Arthur will move around the northwestern side of a high pressure system that extends from the western Atlantic Ocean to over the Gulf of Mexico.  The high pressure system will steer Arthur toward the northeast during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Depression Arthur will move near the border between Texas and Louisiana on Thursday.  Arthur will start to move toward the east by Friday.

Tropical Depression Arthur could interact with a stationary front to drop heavy rain over parts of the Southeast U.S.  Heavy rain could cause floods in some locations.

Flood Watches are in effect for southeast Texas, most of Louisiana, the southern half of Mississippi, central Alabama, Northwest Florida, and northern Georgia.

Tropical Storm Arthur Develops Near Texas Coast

Tropical Storm Arthur developed near the coast of Texas on Wednesday morning.  At 12:30 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Storm Arthur was located at latitude 28.8°N and longitude 95.5°W which put the center about 40 miles (65 km) southwest of Galveston, Texas. Arthur was moving toward the northeast at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 999 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Sargent, Texas to Morgan City Louisiana.

A low pressure system near the coast of Texas, formerly called Potential Tropical Cyclone One, strengthened on Wednesday morning and the U.S. National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Storm Arthur.

The strongest winds were occurring in bands in the eastern and northern sides of Tropical Storm Arthur.

A weather station in Galveston, Texas, (KGLS) reported a sustained wind speed of 39 m.p.h. (63 km/h) and a wind gust of 59 m.p.h. (95 km/h).

NOAA buoy 42035 which is east of Galveston, Texas reported a sustained wind speed of 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and a wind gust of 52 m.p.h. (83 km/h).

A weather station on oil platform Galveston 209A (KGVW) reported a sustained wind speed of 70 m.p.h. (113 km/h) and a wind gust of 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h).  It should be noted that the weather station is 121 feet (37 meters) above sea level.

The distribution of thunderstorms in Tropical Storm Arthur was asymmetrical.  Thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the eastern and northern parts of Arthur’s circulation.  Bands in the western and southern parts of Tropical Storm Arthur consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.

The surface center of Tropical Storm Arthur appeared to be east of a low in the middle troposphere based on visible satellite loops.  The middle level low was producing southwesterly winds that were blowing toward the top of Arthur’s circulation.  Those winds were causing strong vertical wind shear.  The vertical wind shear was causing the asymmetrical distribution of thunderstorms.

The strongest winds were occurring in the bands of thunderstorms in the eastern and northern parts of Tropical Storm Arthur.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 175 miles (280 km) in the eastern half of Arthur’s circulation.  Winds in the western half of Tropical Storm Arthur were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Storm Arthur will move around the northwestern side of a high pressure system that extends from the western Atlantic Ocean to over the Gulf of Mexico.  The high pressure system will steer Arthur toward the northeast during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Arthur will move inland near the border between Texas and Louisiana in a few hours.

Tropical Storm Arthur will move through an environment that will be marginally favorable for intensification during the next few hours.  Arthur will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C.  It will move under the southern part of an upper level trough that is over the central U.S.  The upper level trough will produce westerly winds that will blow toward the top of Arthur’s circulation.  Those winds will cause strong vertical wind shear.  The vertical wind shear will inhibit development, but the wind shear may not be enough to prevent some intensification.  Tropical Storm Arthur could intensify during the next few hours before it makes landfall in Louisiana.

Tropical Storm Arthur will bring gusty winds and heavy rain to parts of the southeastern U.S.  Heavy rain is likely to cause floods in some locations.

Flood Watches are in effect for southeast Texas, most of Louisiana, the southern half of Mississippi, central Alabama, Northwest Florida, and northern Georgia.

Tropical Storm Arthur could also cause a storm surge of up to 4 feet (1 meter) along the coast of Louisiana.

Tropical Storm Warning Issued for Louisiana

The potential risk posed by a low pressure system near Corpus Christi, Texas prompted the U.S. National Hurricane Center to issue a Tropical Storm Warning for a portion of the coast of Louisiana on Tuesday afternoon.  The National Hurricane Center has designated the low pressure system as Potential Tropical Cyclone One.  At 8:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Potential Tropical Cyclone One was located at latitude 27.6°N and longitude 97.3°W which put the center about 15 miles (25 km) south-southeast of Corpus Christi, Texas.  The low pressure system was moving toward the northeast at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 30 m.p.h. (50 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1004 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Sabine Pass to Morgan City, Louisiana.

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from Sargent, Texas to Sabine Pass, Louisiana.

The National Hurricane Center designated a low pressure system over South Texas as Potential Tropical Cyclone One on Tuesday. The distribution of thunderstorms in Potential Tropical Cyclone One was still asymmetrical on Tuesday evening. Thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the eastern side of the low pressure system. The strongest thunderstorms were occurring in bands that were over the Gulf of Mexico. Bands in the western half of the low pressure system consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Storms near the center of circulation generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the low pressure system. The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to slowly decrease.

Potential Tropical Cyclone One will move around the northwestern side of a high pressure system that extends from the western Atlantic Ocean to over the Gulf of Mexico.  The high pressure system will steer the low pressure system toward the northeast during the next 24 hours . On its anticipated track, the low pressure system could move over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico.

If Potential Tropical Cyclone One moves over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico, it will move into an environment that will be marginally favorable for the development of a tropical storm.  The low pressure system will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C.  It will move under the southern part of an upper level trough that is over the eastern U.S.  The upper level trough will produce westerly winds that will blow toward the top of Potential Tropical Cyclone One.  Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear.  The vertical wind shear will inhibit development, but the wind shear may not be enough to prevent the formation of a tropical depression or a tropical storm.

The U.S. National Hurricane Center is indicating that the probability is 70% that a tropical depression or a tropical storm forms over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico. Reconnaissance planes have been tentatively tasked to fly into the the low pressure system on Wednesday, if necessary.

The low pressure system has already dropped heavy rain over parts of South Texas and northern Mexico.

Flood Watches are in effect for South Texas, southeast Texas, most of Louisiana, the southern half of Mississippi, central Alabama, Northwest Florida, and northern Georgia.

Imelda Intensifies to a Hurricane

Former Tropical Storm Imelda intensified to a hurricane over the Atlantic Ocean east of Florida on Tuesday morning.  At 8:00 a.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Hurricane Imelda was located at latitude 29.0°N and longitude 76.9°W which put the center about 755 miles (1255 km) west-southwest of Bermuda.  Imelda was moving toward the northeast at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 980 mb.

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for Bermuda.

A U.S. Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter plane found that former Tropical Storm Imelda had intensified to a hurricane on Tuesday morning.

The circulation around Hurricane Imelda became more symmetrical on Tuesday morning.  Thunderstorms near the center of Imelda’s circulation generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the north and east of the hurricane.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Hurricane Imelda.

Winds to hurricane force extended out 70 miles (110 km) from the center of Hurricane Imelda.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 185 miles (295 km) from the center of Imelda’s circulation.

Hurricane Storm Imelda will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Imelda will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move under the eastern side of an upper level trough that is over the southeast U.S.  The upper level trough will produce southerly winds that will blow toward the top of Imelda’s circulation.  Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear.  The moderate vertical wind shear will inhibit intensification, but the wind shear will not be enough to prevent intensification.  Hurricane Imelda will intensify during the next 24 hours.

The upper level trough over the southeast U.S. will steer Hurricane Imelda toward the east-northeast during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, Hurricane Imelda will affect Bermuda on Wednesday night.

Hurricane Imelda will bring strong winds and heavy rain to Bermuda.  The strong winds could cause electricity outages.  Heavy rain could cause flooding.

Elsewhere over the Atlantic Ocean, Hurricane Humberto was weakening west of Bermuda.  At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Hurricane Humberto was located at latitude 31.6°N and longitude 69.4°W which put the center about 275 miles (440 km) west of Bermuda.  Humberto was moving toward the north-northwest at 17 m.p.h. (28 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 120 m.p.h. (195 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 972 mb.

Tropical Storm Imelda Strengthens

Tropical Storm Imelda strengthened on Monday morning as it moved north of the Bahamas.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Storm Imelda was located at latitude 26.9°N and longitude 77.1°W which put the center about 35 miles (55 km) north of Great Abaco Island, Bahamas.  Imelda was moving toward the north at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 988 mb.

Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for the Northwestern Bahamas including Eleuthera, the Abacos, and Grand Bahama Island.

Tropical Storm Imelda strengthened on Monday morning.  More thunderstorms developed near the center of Imelda’s circulation. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Tropical Storm Imelda.  Storms near the center of Imelda generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical storm.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The strongest winds were occurring in the northeastern part of Tropical Storm Imelda.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 175 miles (280 km) in the eastern side of Imelda’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 90 miles (145 km) in the western side of Tropical Storm Imelda.

Tropical Storm Imelda will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Imelda will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move under the eastern side of an upper level trough that is over the Southeast U.S.  The upper level trough will produce southerly winds that will blow toward the top of Imelda”s circulation.  Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear.  The vertical wind shear will inhibit intensification, but the wind shear will not be enough to prevent intensification.  Tropical Storm Imelda will intensify during the next 24 hours.  Imelda could intensify rapidly at times.  Tropical Storm Imelda will intensify to a hurricane by Tuesday.

The upper level trough west of Florida will steer Tropical Storm Imelda toward the north during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Imelda will remain east of South Florida.

Elsewhere over the Atlantic Ocean, Hurricane Humberto was completing an eyewall replacement cycle.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Monday the center of Hurricane Humberto was located at latitude 28.0°N and longitude 67.6°W which put the center about 340 miles (550 km) south-southwest of Bermuda.  Humberto was moving toward the west-northwest at 13 m.p.h. (21 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 145 m.p.h. (235 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 175 m.p.h. (280 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 940 mb.

A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for Bermuda.