Tag Archives: Bahamas

Tropical Storm Imelda Strengthens

Tropical Storm Imelda strengthened on Monday morning as it moved north of the Bahamas.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Storm Imelda was located at latitude 26.9°N and longitude 77.1°W which put the center about 35 miles (55 km) north of Great Abaco Island, Bahamas.  Imelda was moving toward the north at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 988 mb.

Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for the Northwestern Bahamas including Eleuthera, the Abacos, and Grand Bahama Island.

Tropical Storm Imelda strengthened on Monday morning.  More thunderstorms developed near the center of Imelda’s circulation. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Tropical Storm Imelda.  Storms near the center of Imelda generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical storm.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The strongest winds were occurring in the northeastern part of Tropical Storm Imelda.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 175 miles (280 km) in the eastern side of Imelda’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 90 miles (145 km) in the western side of Tropical Storm Imelda.

Tropical Storm Imelda will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Imelda will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move under the eastern side of an upper level trough that is over the Southeast U.S.  The upper level trough will produce southerly winds that will blow toward the top of Imelda”s circulation.  Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear.  The vertical wind shear will inhibit intensification, but the wind shear will not be enough to prevent intensification.  Tropical Storm Imelda will intensify during the next 24 hours.  Imelda could intensify rapidly at times.  Tropical Storm Imelda will intensify to a hurricane by Tuesday.

The upper level trough west of Florida will steer Tropical Storm Imelda toward the north during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Imelda will remain east of South Florida.

Elsewhere over the Atlantic Ocean, Hurricane Humberto was completing an eyewall replacement cycle.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Monday the center of Hurricane Humberto was located at latitude 28.0°N and longitude 67.6°W which put the center about 340 miles (550 km) south-southwest of Bermuda.  Humberto was moving toward the west-northwest at 13 m.p.h. (21 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 145 m.p.h. (235 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 175 m.p.h. (280 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 940 mb.

A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for Bermuda.

 

Depression Strengthens to Tropical Storm Imelda

Former Tropical Depression Nine strengthened to Tropical Storm Imelda over the Bahamas on Sunday afternoon.  At 2:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Storm Imelda was located at latitude 23.9°N and longitude 77.3°W which put the center about 105 miles (165 km) south of Nassau, Bahamas.   Imelda was moving toward the north at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 998 mb.

Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for the Central Bahamas including Cat Island, the Exumas, Long Island, Rum Cay, and San Salvador.

Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for the Northwestern Bahamas including Eleuthera, New Providence, the Abacos, the Berry Islands, Andros Island, and Grand Bahama Island.

A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from the Palm Beach/Martin County Line to the Flagler/Volusia County Line, Florida.

A U.S. Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter reconnaissance plane found on Sunday afternoon that former Tropical Depression Nine had strengthened.  Based on data collected by the reconnaissance plane, the U.S. National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Storm Imelda.

More thunderstorms were forming near the center of Tropical Storm Imelda on Sunday afternoon.  However, the distribution of thunderstorms in Imelda was asymmetrical.  Thunderstorms were occurring mainly in bands in the eastern side of Imelda’s circulation.  Bands in the western side of Tropical Storm Imelda consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.

Winds to tropical storm force extended out 30 miles (50 km) from the center of Tropical Storm Imelda.

Tropical Storm Imelda will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Imelda will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.   It will move under the eastern side of an upper level trough that is west of Florida.  The upper level trough will produce southerly winds that will blow toward the top of Imelda”s circulation.  Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear.  The vertical wind shear will inhibit intensification, but the wind shear will not be enough to prevent intensification.  Tropical Storm Imelda will intensify during the next 24 hours.

The upper level trough west of Florida will steer Tropical Storm Imelda toward the north during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Imelda will move across the Central and Northwestern Bahamas.

Tropical Storm Imelda will bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to the Central and Northwestern Bahamas.  Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Elsewhere over the Atlantic Ocean, powerful Hurricane Humberto was passing south of Bermuda.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Hurricane Humberto was located at latitude 24.6°N and longitude 64.3°W which put the center about 535 miles (855 km) south of Bermuda.  Humberto was moving toward the west-northwest at 13 m.p.h. (21 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 150 m.p.h. (240 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 180 m.p.h. (290 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 934 mb.

Hurricane Humberto Intensifies to Cat. 5

Hurricane Humberto intensified to Category 5 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale south of Bermuda on Saturday afternoon.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Hurricane Humberto was located at latitude 22.9°N and longitude 61.1°W which put the center about 685 miles (1105 km) south-southeast of Bermuda.  Humberto was moving toward the west-northwest at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 160 m.p.h. (260 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 190 m.p.h. (305 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 925 mb.

Hurricane Humberto intensified to Category 5 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale on Saturday afternoon.  A circular eye with a diameter of 12 miles (19 km) was at the center of Humberto’s circulation.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Hurricane Humberto.  Storms near the center of Humberto generated strong upper level divergence that pumped large quantities of mass away from the hurricane.  The removal of large quantities of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease rapidly.

The circulation around Hurricane Humberto was very symmetrical.  Winds to hurricane force extended out 25 miles (40 km) from the center of Humberto’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 125 miles (200 km) from the center of Hurricane Humberto.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Hurricane Humberto is 35.0.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 10.7 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 45.7.  Hurricane Humberto is similar in intensity to Hurricane Michael when Michael hit Northwest Florida in 2018.  Humberto is slightly smaller than Michael was.

Hurricane Humberto will move through an environment favorable for an intense hurricane during the next 24 hours.  Humberto will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and the will be little vertical wind shear.  Hurricane Humberto could intensify during the next 24 hours.  However, the inner end of a rainband is likely to wrap around the existing eye and eyewall.  The formation of concentric eyewalls would start an eyewall replacement cycle.  An eyewall replacement cycle would cause Humberto to weaken, at least temporarily.

Hurricane Humberto will move around the western part of a high pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Humberto toward the northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Hurricane Humberto will pass far to the south of Bermuda on Sunday.

Elsewhere over the Atlantic Ocean, Tropical Depression Nine formed north of eastern Cuba.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Depression Nine was located at latitude 22.2°N and longitude 76.5°W which put the center about 215 miles (345 km) south-southeast of Nassau,, Bahamas.  The tropical depression was moving toward the northwest at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1005 mb.

Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for the Central Bahamas including Cat Island, the Exumas, Long Island, Rum Cay, and San Salvador.

Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for the Northwestern Bahamas including Eleuthera, New Providence, the Abacos, the Berry Islands, Andros Island, and Grand Bahama Island.

A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from the Palm Beach/Martin County Line to the Flagler/Volusia County Line, Florida.

Tropical Storm Watches and Warnings Issued for Bahamas

Tropical Storm Watches and Warnings were issued for parts of the Bahamas on Friday afternoon because of a storm developing near the western end of Cuba.  The U.S. National Hurricane Center designated the developing storm as Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine.

At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine was located at latitude 20.9°N and longitude 74.6°W which put the center about 55 miles (90 km) north-northwest of the eastern end of Cuba.  Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine was moving toward the northwest at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1008 mb.

Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect for the Central Bahamas including Cat Island, the Exumas, Long Island, Rum Cay, and San Salvador.

Tropical Storm Watches are in effect for the Northwestern Bahamas including Eleuthera, New Providence, the Abacos, the Berry Islands and Grand Bahama Island.

A surface low pressure system started to form on Friday afternoon in the northern end of a tropical wave near the eastern tip of Cuba.  The circulation around the low pressure system was still in the early stages of organization.  More thunderstorms started to develop near the center of the low pressure system.  Other thunderstorms started to form into bands that will begin to revolve around the center of circulation.

Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine will move through an environment that will be favorable for the formation of a tropical storm during the next 24 hours.  It will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move under the western side of an upper level ridge that is east of the Bahamas.  The upper level ridge will produce southerly winds that will blow toward the top of Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine.  Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear, but the wind shear will not be enough to prevent intensification.  Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine is likely to develop into a tropical storm on Saturday.

Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine will move around the western side of a high pressure system that is east of the Bahamas.  The high pressure system will steer Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine toward the north during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine will move across the Central Bahamas on Saturday night.  It will move across the Northwestern Bahamas on Sunday.

Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine will bring strengthening winds and locally heavy rain to the Central Bahamas and to the Northwestern Bahamas.

Elsewhere over the Atlantic Ocean, Hurricane Humberto rapidly intensified to a major hurricane northeast of the Leeward Islands and former Hurricane Gabrielle sped east of the Azores.

At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Hurricane Humberto was located at latitude 22.3°N and longitude 58.1°W which put the center about 430 miles (690 km) northeast of the Northern Leeward Islands.  Humberto was moving toward the west-northwest at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 115 m.p.h. (185 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 135 m.p.h. (215 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 962 mb.

At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of former Hurricane Gabrielle was located at latitude 40.0°N and longitude 22.8°W which put the center about 245 miles (395 km) east-northeast of Lajes Air Base, the Azores.  Gabrielle was moving toward the east-northeast at 31 m.p.h. (50 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 992 mb.

Hurricane Erin Prompts Watches for Outer Banks

The potential risks posed by Hurricane Erin prompted the issuance of a Tropical Storm Watch and a Storm Surge Watch for the North Carolina Outer Banks on Monday afternoon.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Hurricane Erin was located at latitude 24.0°N and longitude 71.3°W which put the center about 815 miles (1310 km) south-southeast of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina.  Erin was moving toward the northwest at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 140 m.p.h. (225 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 165 m.p.h. (265 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 937 mb.

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from Beaufort Inlet to Duck, North Carolina.  The Tropical Storm Watch includes Pamlico Sound.

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from Cape Lookout to Duck, North Carolina.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the Turks and Caicos.  A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the Southeast Bahamas.

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the Central Bahamas.

Hurricane Erin was maintaining its intensity on Monday afternoon.  A circular eye with a diameter of 45 miles (75 km) was at the center of Erin’s circulation.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Erin’s circulation.  Storms near the core of Erin were generating strong upper level divergence that was pumping mass away from the hurricane.  The removal of mass in the upper levels was approximately equal to the inflow of mass in the lower levels of the atmosphere/  The balance of outflow and inflow of mass caused the surface pressure to remain nearly constant.

An earlier eyewall replacement cycle increased the size of the circulation around Hurricane Erin.  Winds to hurricane force extended out 80 miles (130 km) from the center of Erin’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 230 miles (370 km) from the center of Hurricane Erin.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Hurricane Erin is 28.3.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 24.4 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 52.7.  Hurricane Erin is similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Helene in 2024.

Hurricane Erin will move through an environment that will become less favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Erin will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  However, Erin will move into a region of drier air on Tuesday.  The drier air is likely to cause Hurricane Erin to start to weaken slowly.

Hurricane Erin will move around the southwestern side of a high pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Erin toward the northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, the center of Hurricane Storm Erin will pass of the Bahamas on Tuesday.

The large circulation around Hurricane Erin will produce large waves that will move toward the east coast of the U.S.  Erin could cause a storm surge of up to four feet (one meter)  along the Outer Banks of North Carolina.  Mandatory evacuations have been ordered for Hatteras Island and Ocracoke Island.  The large waves could also cause significant beach erosion.  The large circulation around Hurricane Erin could also bring tropical storm force winds to the Outer Banks.

Bands in the western side of Hurricane Erin will continue to bring gusty winds and heavy rain to the Turks and Caicos and to the Southeast Bahamas until Erin moves farther away. The gusty winds and heavy rain could spread over the Central Bahamas on Tuesday.  Heavy rain could cause floods in some locations.

Hurricane Erin Strengthens

Hurricane Erin strengthened again on Monday morning as it moved north of the Turks and Caicos.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Monday the center of Hurricane Erin was located at latitude 23.1°N and longitude 70.8°W which put the center about 110 miles (175 km) north of Grand Turk Island.   Erin was moving toward the west-northwest at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h).   The maximum sustained wind speed was 140 m.p.h. (225 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 165 m.p.h. (265 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 935 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the Turks and Caicos.  A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the Southeast Bahamas.

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the Central Bahamas.

Hurricane Erin began to strengthen again on Monday morning after it completed an eyewall replacement cycle.  A circular eye with a diameter of 37 miles (60 km) was at the center of Erin’s circulation.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Erin’s circulation. Storms near the core of Erin were generating strong upper level divergence that was pumping mass away from the hurricane.

The eyewall replacement cycle increased the size of the circulation around Hurricane Erin. Winds to hurricane force extended out 80 miles (130 km) from the center of Erin’s circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 230 miles (370 km) from the center of Hurricane Erin.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Hurricane Erin is 28.3.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 24.4 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 52.7.  Hurricane Erin is similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Helene in 2024.

Hurricane Erin will move through an environment that will be favorable for intensification during the next 12 hours. Erin will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Hurricane Erin could intensify during the next 12 hours.  Erin could move into a region of drier air on Tuesday.  The drier air would cause Hurricane Erin to start to weaken.

Hurricane Erin will move around the southwestern side of a high pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Erin toward the northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, the center of Hurricane Storm Erin will move east of the Bahamas on Tuesday.

Bands in the western side of Hurricane Erin is bring gusty winds and heavy rain to the Turks and Caicos and to the Southeast Bahamas.  The gusty winds and heavy rain could spread over the Central Bahamas on Tuesday.  Heavy rain could cause floods in some locations.

Hurricane Oscar Brings Wind and Rain to Eastern Cuba

Hurricane Oscar brought wind and rain to eastern Cuba on Sunday night.  At 8:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Hurricane Oscar was located at latitude 20.2°N and longitude 74.5°W which put the center about 45 miles (75 km) east of Guantanamo, Cuba.  Oscar was moving toward the west-southwest at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 988 mb.

Hurricane Warnings are in effect for the North Coast of Cuban province of Holguin and the North Coast of Cuban province of Guantanamo to Punta Maisi.

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for the North Coast of Cuban province of Las Tunas.

Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect for the Southeastern Bahamas.  Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect for the South Coast of Cuban province of Guantanamo and the North Coast of Cuban province of Las Tunas.

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the North Coast of Cuban province of Camaguey.  A Tropical Storm Watch is also in effect for the Central Bahamas.

The center of Hurricane Oscar made landfall on the coast of eastern Cuba east of Guantanamo on Sunday evening.  A very small eye with a diameter of 4 miles (6 km) was at the center of Oscar’s circulation.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Short bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Hurricane Oscar.

The circulation around Hurricane Oscar was very small.  Winds to hurricane force extended out 15 miles (25 km) on the northern side of Oscar’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 45 miles (75 km) from the center of Hurricane Oscar.

Hurricane Oscar will move around the southern side of a high pressure system over the western Atlantic Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Oscar toward the west during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Hurricane Oscar will move across eastern Cuba on Sunday night and on Monday.

Hurricane Oscar will weaken to a tropical storm as it moves inland over eastern Cuba.  Even though Oscar will weaken, it will still bring strong winds and heavy rain to eastern Cuba.  Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations.

Strong Upper Level Winds Shear Top Off Tropical Storm Franklin

Strong upper level winds sheared the top off of Tropical Storm Franklin on Friday morning. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Storm Franklin was located at latitude 21.8°N and longitude 67.8°W which put it about 215 miles (340 km) east-northeast of Grand Turk Island. Franklin was moving toward the east-southeast at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1003 mb.

An upper level trough northeast of the Bahamas produced strong west-northwesterly winds that blew the top off of Tropical Storm Franklin on Friday morning. The strong upper level winds sheared off the tops of thunderstorms near the center of Franklin’s circulation and in the western side of the tropical storm. Bands near the center of Tropical Storm Franklin and in the western half of the circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. The remaining thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the southeastern part of Franklin’s circulation

The strong vertical wind shear also affected the distribution of winds in Tropical Storm Franklin. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 115 miles (185 km) in the eastern side of Franklin’s circulation. Winds to tropical storm force only extended out 35 miles (55 km) in the western half of the circulation.

Tropical Storm Franklin will move through an environment only marginally favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Franklin will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C. However, the upper level trough northeast of the Bahamas will continue to produce west-northwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Franklin’s circulation. Those winds will continue to cause strong vertical wind shear. The wind shear will inhibit intensification and the shear could be strong enough to cause Tropical Storm Franklin to weaken during the next 24 hours.

The upper level trough east of Florida will steer Tropical Storm Franklin toward the east during the rest of Friday. The upper level trough could turn Franklin toward the north on Saturday. On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Franklin will move farther away from the Turks and Caicos. Franklin is forecast to remain well to the north of Puerto Rico.

Tropical Storm Fred Passes South of Puerto Rico

Tropical Storm Fred was passing south of Puerto Rico on Tuesday night. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Storm Fred was located at latitude 17.6°N and longitude 66.8°W which put it about 45 miles (75 km) south-southwest of Ponce, Puerto Rico. Fred was moving toward the west at 17 m.p.h. (28 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1009 mb.

Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for Puerto Rico including Culebra and Vieques and the U.S. Virgin Islands. A Tropical Storm Warning was also in effect for the portion of the coast from Punta Palenque to Cabo Frances Viejo, Dominican Republic. A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Cabo Frances Viejo to the northern border with Haiti. A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Gonaives, Haiti to the northern border with the Dominican Republic. Tropical Storm Watches were also in effect for the Southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos.

A reconnaissance plane was able to identify a low level center of circulation in a low pressure system previously designated at Potential Tropical Cyclone Six on Tuesday evening and the National Hurricane Center upgraded the system to Tropical Storm Fred. The circulation around Tropical Storm Fred was still organizing. The low level center was about 45 miles (75 km) to the north of the center of circulation in the middle levels. The circulation in the middle levels was moving closer to the low level center. The strongest thunderstorms were occurring on the southern side of the low level center and near the center in the middle levels. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 45 miles (75 km) from the center in the northeastern quadrant of Fred. Winds in the other parts of the circulation were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Storm Fred will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 12 hours. Fred will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C. It will be under a small upper level ridge. The upper level winds in the ridge are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Storm Fred is likely to strengthen during the next 12 hours. The center of Fred will be near the eastern part of the Dominican Republic in about 12 hours. Tropical Storm Fred is likely to weaken on Wednesday while the center is near Hispaniola.

Tropical Storm Fred will move of a subtropical high pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Fred toward the west-northwest during the next several days. On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Fred will approach the eastern Dominican Republic in 12 hours. Fred could be over the northern coast of Hispaniola on Wednesday night. Bands in the northern side of Tropical Storm Fred will produce gusty winds and locally heavy rain over Puerto Rico on Tuesday night. Fred could drop heavy rain on parts of the Dominican Republic and Haiti on Wednesday. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Tropical Storm Eta Strengthens, Hurricane Watch for Florida

Tropical Storm Eta strengthened a little more Saturday evening and A Hurricane Watch was issued for parts of South Florida and the Florida Keys. At 10:00 p.m. EST on Saturday the center of Tropical Storm Eta was located at latitude 20.7°N and longitude 79.9°W which put it about 140 miles (220 km) west-southwest of Camaguey, Cuba. Eta was moving toward the northeast at 13 m.p.h. (20 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 991 mb.

A Hurricane Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Deerfield Beach to Bonita Beach, Florida and for the Florida Keys from Ocean Reef to the Dry Tortugas. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from the Brevard/Volusia County Line to Englewood, Florida. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the Florida Keys from Ocean Reef to the Dry Tortugas. Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for the Cayman Islands and the Cuban provinces of Camaguey, Ciego de Avila, Sancti Spiritus, Villa Clara, Cienfuegos and Matanzas. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the Northwestern Bahamas including the Abacos, Andros Island, the Berry Islands, Bimini, Eleuthera, Grand Bahama Island and New Providence. A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Englewood to Anna Maria Island, Florida. A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for Lake Okeechobee. A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the Cuban provinces of La Habana, Artemisa y Mayabeque, Pinar del Rio and the Isle of Youth.

The circulation around Tropical Storm Eta continued to strengthen on Saturday evening. There were occasional infrared satellite images that suggested a small eye could be forming at the center of Eta. There was a ring of strong thunderstorms around the center and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Storms near the core of Eta generated upper level divergence which pumped mass away to the northeast of the tropical storm. The strongest rainbands were in the northern and eastern parts of the circulation around Tropical Storm Eta. Bands south and west of the center consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. The strongest winds were blowing in the northern half of Eta. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 120 miles (195 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Storm Eta will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the few hours. Eta will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C. An upper level trough over the Gulf of Mexico will produce southwesterly winds which will blow toward the top of Tropical Storm Eta. Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear. The shear will inhibit intensification, but it may not be strong enough to prevent Eta from getting stronger. Tropical Storm Eta is likely to weaken when it crosses Cuba on Saturday night. The Sea Surface Temperature of the water north of Cuba is near 29°C. So, Eta is likely to strengthen after it crosses Cuba. Eta could strengthen to a hurricane when it approaches the Florida Keys.

The upper level trough will make a transition to a cutoff low over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico which will be the primary feature steering Eta. Counterclockwise rotation around the cutoff low will pull Eta toward the northeast on Saturday night . On its anticipated track Eta could move across Cuba west of Camaguey on Saturday night. Tropical Storm Eta will drop heavy rain when it moves across Cuba and flash floods could occur. The upper low will steer Eta toward the northwest on Sunday. Eta will approach the Florida Keys on Sunday night. It could be a hurricane at that time. Eta will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to the Florida Keys and South Florida. A high pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean will interact with the circulation around the northern side of Eta to produce strong easterly winds which will blow toward the coast of Southeast Florida. Those winds will push water toward the coast and the water level could rise up to six feet (2 meters). The strong winds could also cause widespread power outages in South Florida.