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Tropical Storm Ophelia Brings Wind and Rain to Eastern North Carolina, Virginia

Tropical Storm Ophelia brought wind and rain to eastern North Carolina and Virginia on Saturday morning. At 8:00 a.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Storm Ophelia was located at latitude 35.1°N and longitude 77.0°W which put it about 40 miles (65 km) northwest of Cape Lookout, North Carolina. Ophelia was moving toward the north at 13 m.p.h. (21 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 983 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Cape Fear, North Carolina to Fenwick Island, Delaware. The Tropical Storm Warning included Albemarle Sound and Pamlico Sound. A Tropical Storm Warning was also in effect for Chesapeake Bay south of North Beach. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the Tidal Potomac south of Cobb Island.

Tropical Storm Ophelia brought wind and rain as it moved inland over eastern North Carolina on Saturday morning. The circulation around Ophelia was large. Tropical Storm Opehila was interacting with a high pressure system over eastern Canada to produce strong winds northeast of the center of circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 310 miles (500 km) in the northeastern quadrant of Ophelia’s circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 140 miles (225 km) in the other parts of Tropical Storm Ophelia.

A weather station in Cape Lookout, North Carolina reported a sustained wind speed of 47 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and a wind gust of 71 m.p.h. (115 km/h). A weather station in Morehead City, North Carolina reported a sustained wind speed of 43 m.p.h. (68 km/h) and a wind gust of 53 m.p.h. (85 km/h). NOAA buoy 41037 near Wrightsville Beach reported a sustained wind speed of 54 m.p.h. (87 km/h) and a wind gust of 83 m.p.h. (134 km/h).

Tropical Storm Ophelia will move around the western side of a high pressure system over the western Atlantic Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Ophelia toward the north during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Ophelia will move inland over eastern North Carolina and Virginia. Ophelia will bring strong, gusty winds and locally heavy rain to eastern North Carolina, eastern Virginia, southeastern Maryland and southern Delaware.

The heaviest rain was falling in bands in the northern and western parts of Tropical Storm Ophelia. Bands in the eastern and southern parts of Ophelia’s circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Locally heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations. Flood Watches were in effect for eastern North Carolina, eastern Virginia, Maryland and Delaware.

Easterly winds in the northern side of Tropical Storm Ophelia will blow water toward the coast. A storm surge of up to 6 feet (1.8 meters) could occur in some locations. A Storm Surge Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Bogue Inlet, North Carolina to Chincoteague, Virginia. The Storm Surge Warning included Albemarle Sound, Pamlico Sound, the Pamlico River and the Neuse River. A Storm Surge Warning was in effect for Chesapeake Bay south of Colonial Beach, Virginia. Large waves will also cause significant beach erosion.

Tropical Storm Ophelia Develops South of Cape Hatteras

Tropical Storm Ophelia developed south of Cape Hatteras on Friday afternoon. At 2:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Storm Ophelia was located at latitude 32.7°N and longitude 76.0°W which put it about 185 miles (295 km) south of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina. Ophelia was moving toward the north-northwest at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 992 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Cape Fear, North Carolina to Fenwick Island, Delaware. The Tropical Storm Warning included Albemarle Sound and Pamlico Sound. A Tropical Storm Warning was also in effect for Chesapeake Bay south of North Beach. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the Tidal Potomac south of Cobb Island.

The U.S. National Hurricane Center designated a low pressure system south of Cape Hatteras as Tropical Storm Ophelia on Friday afternoon. Drier air was wrapping around the southern and eastern sides of Ophelia’s circulation. The drier air was making the distribution of thunderstorms asymmetrical. Thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the northern and western parts of Tropical Storm Ophelia. Bands in the southern and eastern parts of Ophelia consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Storms north and west of the center of Ophelia’s circulation generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical storm. The circulation around Tropical Storm Ophelia was large, Winds to tropical storm force extended out 275 miles (445 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Storm Ophelia will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 12 hours. Ophelia will move over the Gulf Stream where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C. It will move under the eastern side of an upper level trough over the eastern U.S. The upper level trough will produce southwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Ophelia’s circulation. Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear. However, the flow of air in the upper levels will also provide divergence aloft that will pump mass away from the tropical storm. The removal of mass will cause the surface pressure to decrease. The drier air in the southern and eastern parts of Tropical Storm Ophelia will inhibit the formation of thunderstorms in those regions. Tropical Storm Ophelia could intensify during the next 12 hours, while it is over the Gulf Stream.

Tropical Storm Ophelia will move around the western side of a high pressure system over the western Atlantic Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Ophelia toward the north-northwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Ophelia will approach the coast of North Carolina on Friday night. Ophelia will bring strong, gusty winds and locally heavy rain to eastern North Carolina, eastern Virginia, southeastern Maryland and southern Delaware. NOAA buoy 41025 at Diamond Shoals, North Carolina reported a sustained wind speed of 47 m.p.h. (76 km/h) and a wind gust of 60 m.p.h. (97 km/h). A NOAA C-MAN station at Cape Lookout, North Carolina reported a sustained wind speed of 45 m.p.h. (72 km/h) and a wind gust of 53 m.p.h. (83 km/h)

Locally heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations. Flood Watches were in effect for eastern North Carolina, eastern Virginia, Maryland and Delaware.

Easterly winds in the northern side of Tropical Storm Ophelia will blow water toward the coast. A storm surge of up to 6 feet (1.8 meters) could occur in some locations. A Storm Surge Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Beaufort Inlet, North Carolina to Chincoteague, Virginia. The Storm Surge Warning included Albemarle Sound, Pamlico Sound, the Pamlico River and the Neuse River. A Storm Surge Warning was in effect for Chesapeake Bay south of Colonial Beach, Virginia. Large waves will also cause significant beach erosion.

Low Pressure System Prompts Tropical Storm Warnings for Mid-Atlantic Coast

A low pressure system formed over the Atlantic Ocean off the coast of the southeast U.S. on Thursday morning. The U.S. National Hurricane Center designated the low pressure system as Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen and issued Tropical Storm Warnings for portions of the Mid-Atlantic coast. At 2:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen was located at latitude 29.0°N and longitude 75.9°W which put it about 430 miles (690 km) south of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina. Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen was moving toward the north at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1012 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Cape Fear, North Carolina to Fenwick Island, Delaware. The Tropical Storm Warning included Albemarle Sound and Pamlico Sound. A Tropical Storm Warning was also in effect for Chesapeake Bay south of Smith Point.

A low pressure system formed over the Atlantic Ocean off the coast of the southeast U.S. on Thursday morning. The low pressure system formed as an extratropical cyclone. There was a large counterclockwise circulation around the low pressure system. There was not a well formed, distinct low level center of the circulation. Thunderstorms were occurring in a band that wrapped around the eastern and northern side of the low pressure systems. Fragmented bands in other parts of the circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.

Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen will move through an environment favorable for intensification of an extratropical cyclone during the next 24 hours. The low pressure system will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C. It will move under the eastern side of an upper level trough over the eastern U.S. The upper level trough will produce southwesterly winds that will blow across the top of Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen. Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear. However, the flow of air in the upper levels will also provide divergence aloft that will pump mass away from the surface low pressure system. The removal of mass will cause the surface pressure to decrease. Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen is likely to intensify during the next 24 hours. The low pressure system could make a transition to a tropical storm later on Friday when it moves over the warmer water in the Gulf Stream.

The upper level trough over the eastern U.S. will steer Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen toward the north during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track Potential Tropical Cyclone will approach the coast of North Carolina on Friday night. The low pressure system will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to eastern North Carolina, eastern Virginia, southeastern Maryland and southern Delaware. The gusty winds will blow water toward the coast. A storm surge of up to 5 feet (1.5 meters) could occur in some locations. Large waves will cause significant beach erosion. Locally heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Elsewhere over the Atlantic Ocean, Hurricane Nigel was speeding toward the northeast as it passed southeast of Newfoundland. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Hurricane Nigel was located at latitude 42.2°N and longitude 45.0°W which put it about 505 miles (815 km) southeast of Cape Race,, Newfoundland. Nigel was moving toward the northeast at 30 m.p.h. (48 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 977 mb.

Tropical Storm Idalia Moves Away from North Carolina

Tropical Storm Idalia moved away from North Carolina on Thursday. At 2:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Storm Idalia was located at latitude 33.6°N and longitude 74.8°W which put it about 120 miles (195 km) southeast of Cape Lookout, North Carolina. Idalia was moving toward the east at 20 m.p.h. (32 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 994 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Surf City, North Carolina to the North Carolina/Virginia border. The Tropical Storm Warning included Pamlico Sound and Albemarle Sound.

Tropical Storm Idalia was moving quickly away from North Carolina on Thursday afternoon. An upper level trough over the east coast of the U.S. was producing strong westerly winds that were blowing across the top of Idalia’s circulation. Those winds were causing strong vertical wind shear and they were blew the top of Idalia’s circulation away from circulation in the lower levels of the atmosphere. Drier air wrapped into the southern and eastern parts of Tropical Storm Idalia. As a result of the strong vertical wind shear and the drier air, the bands revolving around the center of Idalia’s circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 200 miles (320 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Storm Idalia will move through an environment unfavorable for intensification during the next 36 hours. Idalia will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C. However, the upper level trough over the east coast of the U.S. will continue to cause strong vertical wind shear. The strong vertical wind shear and drier air are likely to cause Tropical Storm Idalia to weaken during the next 36 hours. Idalia could exhibit many of the characteristics of an extratropical cyclone.

The upper level trough over the east coast of the U.S. will steer Tropical Storm Idalia toward the east during the next 36 hours. On its anticipated track, Idalia will move quickly away from North Carolina. Tropical Storm Idalia will approach Bermuda during the weekend.

Elsewhere over the Atlantic Ocean, Hurricane Franklin moved farther away from Bermuda and Tropical Storm Jose developed over the Central Atlantic. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Hurricane Franklin was located at latitude 35.1°N and longitude 61.6°W which put it about 265 miles (430 km) northeast of Bermuda. Franklin was moving toward the east-northeast at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 120 m.p.h. (195 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 965 mb.

At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Storm Jose was located at latitude 29.7°N and longitude 52.1°W which put it about 770 miles (1245 km) east of Bermuda. Jose was moving toward the north at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1010 mb.

Hurricane Idalia Brings Wind and Rain to Southeast U.S.

Former Hurricane Idalia brought wind and rain to southeast U.S. on Wednesday. Idalia weakened to a tropical storm on Wednesday afternoon as it moved across southeastern Georgia. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Storm Idalia was located at latitude 32.2°N and longitude 81.7°W which put it about 40 miles (65 km) west of Savannah, Georgia. Idalia was moving toward the northeast at 21 m.p.h. (33 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 70 m.p.h. (110 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 961 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from the Flagler/Volusia County Line, Florida to the North Carolina/Virginia border. The Tropical Storm Warning included Charleston, South Carolina. The Tropical Storm Warning also included Pamlico Sound and Albemarle Sound.

Former Hurricane Idalia made landfall on the west coast of Florida near Keaton Beach on Wednesday morning. A NOAA C-MAN station at Keaton Beach (KTNF1) measured a sustained wind speed of 61 m.p.h. (98 km/h) and a wind gust of 77 m.p.h. (124 km/h). Idalia moved northeast across northern Florida and southeastern Georgia during Wednesday. The center of Idalia passed just to the southeast of Perry, Florida. A weather station in Perry (KFPY) measured a sustained wind speed of 62 m.p.h. (100 km/h) and a wind gust of 85 m.p.h. (137 km/h). Idalia weakened steadily as it moved over land. The center of Idalia’s circulation passed southeast of Valdosta, Georgia. A weather station in Valdosta (KVLD) measured a sustained wind speed of 39 m.p.h. (63 km/h) and a wind gust of 67 m.p.h. (108 km/h).

An upper level trough over the eastern U.S. will steer Tropical Storm Idalia toward the northeast during the next 12 hours. The upper level trough will pass north of Idalia on Thursday. The trough will steer Tropical Storm Idalia toward the east-northeast on Thursday. On its anticipated track, the center of Tropical Storm Idalia will move near the coast of South Carolina and North Carolina.

Tropical Storm Idalia will weaken gradually during the next 24 hours. The strongest winds in Idalia will occur over the Atlantic Ocean and along the coast of South Carolina and North Carolina. The winds will be weaker in parts of South Carolina and North Carolina that are farther inland. The southerly winds in the eastern part of Idalia will blow water toward the coast. Those winds will cause a storm surge along the coast of up to 7 feet (2 meters). A Storm Surge Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from St. Catherine’s Sound, Georgia to South Santee River, South Carolina.

The southerly winds blowing in the eastern side of Tropical Storm Idalia will converge with northerly winds blowing around a high pressure system over the Great Lakes. The low level convergence of air will enhance rising motion and prolonged rainfall could occur over inland parts of South Carolina and North Carolina. Flood Watches are in effect for parts of eastern Georgia, South Carolina and North Carolina.

Elsewhere over the Atlantic Ocean, bands in the eastern side of Hurricane Franklin were producing gusty winds in Bermuda. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Hurricane Franklin was located at latitude 34.2°N and longitude 65.9°W which put it about 145 miles (235 km) north-northwest of Bermuda. Franklin was moving toward the northeast at 13 m.p.h. (21 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 105 m.p.h. (165 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 125 m.p.h. (200 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 961 mb. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for Bermuda.

Hurricane Idalia Strengthens to Cat. 2

Hurricane Idalia strengthened to Category 2 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale on Tuesday afternoon. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Hurricane Idalia was located at latitude 26.1°N and longitude 84.8°W which put it about 195 miles (310 km) southwest of Tampa, Florida. Idalia was moving toward the north at 16 m.p.h. (26 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 120 m.p.h. (195 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 972 mb.

A Hurricane Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Indian Pass to the middle of Longboat Key, Florida. The Hurricane Warning included Tampa Bay. A Hurricane Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from the Mouth of the St. Mary’s River, Florida to South Santee River, South Carolina. The Hurricane Watch included Charleston, South Carolina. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Chokoloskee to the middle of Longboat Key, Florida. A Tropical Storm Warning was also in effect for the portion of the coast from Indian Pass to Mexico Beach, Florida. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the Dry Tortugas. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Sebastian Inlet, Florida to Surf City, North Carolina. A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the Lower Florida Keys west of Seven Mile Bridge. A Tropical Storm Watch was also in effect for the portion of the coast from Surf City, North Carolina to the North Carolina/Virginia border. The Tropical Storm Watch included Pamlico Sound and Albemarle Sound.

Hurricane Idalia intensified steadily during Tuesday afternoon. A circular eye with a diameter of 30 miles (50 km) was at the center of Idalia’s circulation. The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Idalia’s circulation. Storms near the core generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the hurricane.

The circulation around Hurricane Idalia grew larger when Idalia intensified. Winds to hurricane force extended out 25 miles (40 km) from the center of Idalia’s circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 160 miles (260 km) in the eastern side of Hurricane Ida. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 70 miles in the western side of Ida’s circulation. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Hurricane Ida was 16.5. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 8.0 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 24.5.

Hurricane Idalia will move through an environment that will be favorable for intensification during the next 12 hours. Idalia will be over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C. It will move into a region between an upper level ridge over the Yucatan Peninsula and an upper level trough over the central U.S. The upper level winds are weaker between the ridge and the trough and there will be little vertical wind shear during the next 12 hours. The upper level winds will be stronger when Idalia moves closer to the upper level trough on Wednesday morning. Hurricane Idalia will intensify during the next 12 hours. Idalia could rapidly intensify at times. Hurricane Idalia is likely to strengthen to a major hurricane.

Hurricane Idalia will move around the western end of high pressure system over the western Atlantic Ocean. The high pressure system and the upper level trough over the central U.S. will steer Idalia toward the north-northeast during the next 12 hours. The upper level trough will turn Idalia toward the northeast on Wednesday. On its anticipated track, Hurricane Idalia will likely to make landfall on the coast of the northeast Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday morning. Idalia is likely to make landfall as a major hurricane.

Hurricane Idalia is forecast to be a major hurricane when it reaches the coast of Florida. Idalia could be similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Dennis when Dennis hit Northwest Florida in 2005. Hurricane Idalia is likely to make landfall in an area where high storm surges can occur. Idalia could cause a storm surge of up to 15 feet (4.5 meters) near where the center makes landfall. A Storm Surge Warning has been issued for the portion of the coast from Englewood to Indian Pass, Florida. The Storm Surge Warning includes Tampa Bay. Hurricane Idalia will bring strong winds and heavy rain to parts of central and northern Florida. Idalia will be capable of causing major damage over parts of northern and northeastern Florida. Widespread outages of electricity are likely. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations. Strong winds and heavy rain will spread over eastern Georgia, South Carolina and North Carolina when Idalia moves toward the northeast. Flood Watches are in effect for parts of northern Florida, eastern Georgia, South Carolina and North Carolina.

Elsewhere, Hurricane Franklin was west of Bermuda. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Hurricane Franklin was located at latitude 31.4°N and longitude 69.9°W which put it about 305 miles (490 km) west of Bermuda. Franklin was moving toward the northeast at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 125 m.p.h. (200 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 150 m.p.h. (240 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 947 mb. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for Bermuda.

Hurricane Ian Approaches South Carolina

Hurricane Ian approached the coast of South Carolina on Friday morning. At 8:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Hurricane Ian was located at latitude 31.4°N and longitude 79.1°W which put it about 105 miles (165 km) south-southeast of Charleston South Carolina. Ian was moving toward the north at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 984 mb.

A Hurricane Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Savannah River, Georgia to Cape Fear, North Carolina. The Hurricane Warning included Charleston, South Carolina. A Hurricane Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Cape Fear to Surf City, North Carolina. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Cape Fear to Duck, North Carolina. The Tropical Storm Warning included Pamlico Sound. A Tropical Storm Warning is also in effect for the portion of the coast from Altamaha Sound to Savannah River, Georgia.

Hurricane Ian did not have the typical structure of a tropical hurricane on Friday morning. Ian was in the middle of a transition to an extratropical cyclone. The circulation around Hurricane Ian was also interacting with a stationary front near the coast of the Carolinas. The result of these factors was that the strongest winds were occurring in the western side of Ian’s circulation. Winds to hurricane force extended out 70 miles (110 km) in the western side of Hurricane Ian. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 480 miles (775 km) in the northeaster quadrant of Ian. Tropical storm force winds extended out 185 miles (300 km) in the other parts of Ian’s circulation. The interaction with the stationary front was also causing the heaviest rain to fall in the northern half of Hurricane Ian.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Hurricane Ian is 12.7. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 20.6 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 33.3. Hurricane Ian is capable of causing widespread minor damage.

Hurricane Ian will move through an environment marginally favorable for intensification during the next few hours. Ian will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28˚C. An upper level trough over the eastern U.S. will produce southerly winds that will blow toward the top of Ian’s circulation. Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear. The wind shear will inhibit intensification. Hurricane Ian could get a little stronger before it makes landfall in South Carolina. The vertical wind shear will cause Hurricane Ian to continue its transformation to an extratropical cyclone.

The upper level trough will steer Hurricane Ian toward the north during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track the center Hurricane Ian could make landfall in South Carolina between Charleston and Myrtle Beach on Friday afternoon. Ian will be a Category 1 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale when it reaches South Carolina. Ian will bring strong gusty winds and locally heavy rain. If Ian makes landfall east of Charleston, the the strongest winds will affect that city. Widespread minor wind damage and electricity outages could occur. Air revolving around the northern side of Ian’s circulation will interact with the stationary front near the coast to enhance the rising motion in that region. The enhanced rising motion could produce heavy rainfall near the stationary front. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations. Flood Watches are in effect for parts of South Carolina and North Carolina. Southeasterly winds blowing around the northeastern side of Hurricane Ian will blow water toward the coast. A storm surge of 4 to 7 feet (1.2 to 2.0 meters) could occur. A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from the Savannah River, Georgia to Cape Fear, North Carolina. Serious coastal erosion is likely.

Ian Strengthens Back to a Hurricane

One time major hurricane and former Tropical Storm Ian strengthened back to a hurricane over the Atlantic Ocean east of Florida on Thursday afternoon. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Hurricane Ian was located at latitude 29.3°N and longitude 79.9°W which put it about 240 miles (390 km) south of Charleston South Carolina. Ian was moving toward the north-northeast at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 986 mb.

A Hurricane Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Savannah River, Georgia to Cape Fear, North Carolina. The Hurricane Warning included Charleston, South Carolina. A Hurricane Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Cape Fear to Surf City, North Carolina. A Hurricane Watch was also in effect for the portion of the coast from the Flagler/Volusia County Line, Florida to Savannah River, Georgia. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Cape Fear to Duck, North Carolina. The Tropical Storm Warning included Pamlico Sound. A Tropical Storm Warning is also in effect for the portion of the coast from Vero Beach, Florida to Savannah River, Georgia.

The structure of Hurricane Ian contains elements of a hurricane and elements of an extratropical cyclone. Ian has a warm core in the middle and upper troposphere, which makes it a hurricane. However, cooler, drier air wrapped around the southern side of Ian and a cold front is forming east of Ian. The developing cold front is an element of an extratropical cyclone. Many of the thunderstorms in Hurricane Ian are occurring in bands in the northern and western parts of Ian’s circulation.

The wind field around Hurricane Ian also changed when Ian started a transition to an extratropical cyclones. The circulation around Ian is interacting with a large high pressure system centered over the Great Lakes. The interaction of Ian’s circulation with the high pressure system is causing the strongest winds to be in the northwestern quadrant of Hurricane Ian. Winds to hurricane force extend out 45 miles (75 km) in the northwestern quadrant of Ian. The size of the circulation around Hurricane Ian also increased when it started the transition to an extratropical cyclone. Winds to tropical storm force extend out 400 miles (645 km) in the eastern side of Ian. Winds to tropical storm force extend out 230 miles (370 km) in the western side.

Hurricane Ian will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Ian will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29˚C. An upper level trough over the eastern U.S. will produce southwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Ian’s circulation. Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear. The wind shear will inhibit intensification. Hurricane Ian could intensify, if the center moves over the warm water in the Gulf Stream current. More thunderstorms could form near the center of Ian’s circulation and could look more like a hurricane for a few hours. The vertical wind shear will eventually cause Hurricane Ian to gradually continue its transformation to an extratropical cyclone.

The upper level trough will steer Hurricane Ian toward the north-northeast during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track the center Hurricane Ian could make landfall in South Carolina on Friday afternoon. Ian is likely to be a Category 1 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale when it reaches South Carolina. Ian will bring strong gusty winds and locally heavy rain. Widespread minor wind damage and electricity outages could occur. Air revolving around the northern side of Ian’s circulation will interact with a stationary front near the coast to enhance the rising motion in that region. The enhanced rising motion could produce very heavy rainfall near the stationary front. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations. Flood Watches are in effect for parts of South Carolina and North Carolina. Southeasterly winds blowing around the northeastern side of Hurricane Ian will blow water toward the coast. A storm surge of 4 to 7 feet (1.2 to 2.0 meters) could occur. A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from the Flagler/Volusia County Line, Florida to Cape Fear, North Carolina.

Tropical Storm Elsa Prompts Warnings for East Coast

Tropical Storm Elsa prompted the issuance of warnings and watches for the East Coast of the U.S. on Wednesday night. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Storm Elsa was located at latitude 32.1°N and longitude 82.3°W which put it about 55 miles (90 km) west of Savannah, Georgia. Elsa was moving toward the north-northeast at 16 m.p.h. (26 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 55 m.p.h. (90 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1006 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Altamaha Sound, Georgia to Great Egg Inlet, New Jersey. The Tropical Storm Warning included Pamlico Sound and Albemarle Sound. A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Great Egg Inlet to Sandy Hook, New Jersey. A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the eastern portion of Long Island from East Rockaway Inlet to Port Jefferson Harbor. A Tropical Storm Watch was also in effect for the portion of the coast from New Haven, Connecticut to Sagamore Beach, Massachusetts including Block Island, Nantucket, Martha’s Vineyard, and Cape Cod.

The center of Tropical Storm Elsa was moving across eastern Georgia on Wednesday night. Heavy rain was spreading across South Carolina. Rainbands on the eastern side of Elsa’s circulation were producing winds to tropical storm force over the Atlantic Ocean. NOAA buoy 41008 at Grays Reef reported a sustained wind speed of 38 m.p.h. (61 km/h) and a wind gust of 47 m.p.h. (76 km/h). The circulation around Tropical Storm Elsa was still well defined. A distinct low pressure system was evident on the surface map, radar and satellite displays. Storms on the eastern side of Elsa generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the northeast of the tropical storm.

An upper level trough over the Great Lakes will steer Tropical Storm Elsa toward the northeast during the next 48 hours. On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Elsa will move across South Carolina on Thursday morning and North Carolina on Thursday afternoon. Elsa could be over eastern Virginia on Thursday evening and near Long Island by Friday morning. Even though the center of Tropical Storm Elsa will be over land for another 18 to 24 hours, bands on the eastern side of the circulation could produce tropical storm force winds over the Atlantic Ocean and along the East Coast of the U.S. Elsa will also drop locally heavy rain over South Carolina, eastern North Carolina and eastern Virginia. Gusty winds and heavy rain could cause sporadic power outages. Heavy rain could also cause flash floods in some locations.

Tropical Depression Claudette Prompts Warning for North Carolina

Even though the center of circulation was well inland over the southeastern U.S. on Sunday morning, Tropical Depression Claudette prompted the issuance of a Tropical Storm Warning for the coast of North Carolina. At 8:00 a.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Depression Claudette was located at latitude 33.7°N and longitude 84.8°W which put it about 25 miles (40 km) west of Atlanta, Georgia. Claudette was moving toward the east-northeast at 13 m.p.h. (20 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 30 m.p.h. (50 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1007 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the coast of North Carolina from Little River Inlet to Duck including Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds. A Tropical Storm Watch was issued for the portion of the coast from South Santee River, South Carolina to Little River Inlet, North Carolina.

Although the center of Tropical Depression Claudette had been over land for a day, the circulation was still well organized. A well defined center of lower pressure was evident at the surface. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were visible on satellite and radar images. The strongest winds were occurring in the bands that were over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico. The winds were weaker over land. Rain was falling over the region from northern Florida to North Carolina. The heaviest rain was falling in a band over northern Florida and a Tornado Watch was in effect for part of that region.

Tropical Depression Claudette will move into an environment more favorable for intensification on Sunday. The center of Claudette will still be over land, but it will move east of the Appalachian Mountains. It will move between an upper level trough over the North Central U.S. and an upper level ridge southeast of the U.S. The trough and the ridge will produce southwesterly winds which will blow toward the top of the tropical depression. Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear, but they will also generate upper level divergence to the northeast of Tropical Depression Claudette. The upper level divergence could allow the surface pressure to decrease while Claudette is still over land. A decrease in pressure could generate enough additional force to increase the wind speeds along the coast of North Carolina and South Carolina, when the center Tropical Depression Claudette gets closer to the coast.

Tropical Depression Claudette will move north of a surface high pressure system centered southeast of the U.S. on Sunday. The high will steer Claudette toward the east-northeast during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track the center of Tropical Depression Claudette will move across Georgia and South Carolina on Sunday. Claudette will continue to drop heavy rain over parts of the southeastern U.S. Flash Flood Watches were in effect for northern Florida, northern Georgia, South Carolina, and eastern North Carolina. There could also be enough wind shear to generate tornadoes in bands on the eastern side of Tropical Depression Claudette.