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Hurricane Beryl Nears the Windward Islands

Hurricane Beryl neared the Windward Islands on Monday morning.  At 8:00 a.m. EDT on Monday the center of Hurricane Beryl was located at latitude 12.0°N and longitude 60.5°W which put the center about 70 miles (110 km) east of Grenada.  Beryl was moving toward the west-northwest at 20 m.p.h. (32 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 130 m.p.h. (210 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 160 m.p.h. (260 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 959 mb.

Hurricane Warnings were in effect for Barbados, Grenada, Tobago, and St. Vincent and the Grenadine Islands.

Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for St. Lucia, Martinique and Trinidad.

A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the south coast of the Dominican Republic from Punta Palenque to the border with Haiti.  A Tropical Storm Watch was also in effect for the south coast of Haiti from Anse d’Hainault to the border with the Dominican Republic.

Hurricane Beryl quickly completed an Eyewall Replacement Cycle early on Monday.  Beryl began to intensify again after completion of the Eyewall Replacement Cycle.  A circular eye with a diameter of 17 miles (28 km) was present at the center of Hurricane Beryl.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Hurricane Beryl.  Storms near the core generated strong upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the hurricane in all directions.  The removal of large amounts of mass caused the surface pressure to start to decrease again.

Completion of the Eyewall Replacement Cycle caused the size of the circulation around Hurricane Beryl to increase.  Winds to hurricane force extended out 35 miles (55 km) from the center of Beryl’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 125 miles (200 km) from the center of Hurricane Beryl.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Hurricane Beryl was 25.1.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 11.8 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 36.9.  Hurricane Beryl was similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Harvey when Harvey hit Texas in 2017.

Hurricane Beryl will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Beryl will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move under the southern part of an upper level ridge over the tropical Atlantic Ocean and eastern Caribbean Sea.  The ridge will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of Beryl’s circulation.  The winds in the lower levels of the atmosphere are also blowing from the east and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Hurricane Beryl is likely to intensify during the next 24 hours unless another Eyewall Replacement Cycle occurs.  There is a chance that Hurricane Beryl could strengthen to a Category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale.

Hurricane Beryl will move around the southern side of a high pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Beryl toward the west-northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Hurricane Beryl will hit Grenada and St. Vincent and the Grenadine Islands in a few hours.

The core of Hurricane Beryl will pass very close to Grenada and St. Vincent and the Grenadine Islands in a few hours.  Beryl will be capable of causing regional severe damage.  Widespread outages of electricity are likely.  Hurricane Beryl will also drop heavy rain.  Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations.  Hurricane Beryl could cause a storm surge of up to 13 feet (4 meters) on the parts of islands where the wind blows the water toward the shore.

Hurricane Beryl will also bring strong winds and heavy rain in St. Lucia, Tobago, and Martinique.  Gusty winds and heavy rain could occur in Barbados and Trinidad.

Elsewhere, former Tropical Storm Chris brought gusty winds and locally heavy rain to parts of Mexico.  At 8:00 a.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Depression Chris was located at latitude 20.2°N and longitude 97.7°W which put the center about 60 miles (95 km) south-southwest of Tuxpan, Mexico.  Chris was moving toward the west at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1007 mb.

Hurricane Beryl Approaches Windward Islands

Hurricane Beryl was approaching the Windward Islands on Sunday night.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Hurricane Beryl was located at latitude 11.5°N and longitude 58.1°W which put the center about 150 miles (240 km) southeast of Barbados.   Beryl was moving toward the west-northwest at 20 m.p.h. (32 km/h).   The maximum sustained wind speed was 130 m.p.h. (210 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 160 m.p.h. (260 km/h).   The minimum surface pressure was 959 mb.

Hurricane Warnings were in effect for Barbados, St. Lucia, Grenada, Tobago, and St. Vincent and the Grenadine Islands.

Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for Martinique and Trinidad.

A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for Dominica.  A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the south coast of the Dominican Republic from Punta Palenque to the border with Haiti.  A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the south coast of Haiti from Anse d’Hainault to the border with the Dominican Republic.

A circular eye with a diameter of 12 miles (19 km) was present at the center of Hurricane Beryl.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  The inner end of a rainband was wrapping around the existing eye and eyewall.  Concentric eyewalls were likely forming.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Hurricane Beryl.  Storms near the core generated strong upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the hurricane in all directions.  The removal of large amounts of mass was in equilibrium with the inflow of mass near the surface and the surface pressure was nearly steady.

The size of the circulation around Hurricane Beryl also remained nearly steady on Sunday evening.  Winds to hurricane force extended out 30 miles (50 km) from the center of Beryl’s circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 115 miles (185 km) from the center of Hurricane Beryl.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Hurricane Beryl was 25.1.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 10.5 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 35.6.  Hurricane Beryl was similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Harvey when Harvey hit Texas in 2017.

Hurricane Beryl will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Beryl will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move under the southern part of an upper level ridge over the central tropical Atlantic Ocean.  The ridge will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of Beryl’s circulation.  The winds in the lower levels of the atmosphere are also blowing from the east and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Although Hurricane Beryl will move through an environment favorable for intensification, Beryl is likely to weaken during the next few hours.  Concentric eyewalls will likely lead to an Eyewall Replacement Cycle.  During an Eyewall Replacement Cycle the inner eyewall weakens and dissipates.  Since the maximum wind speeds occur in the inner eyewall, Hurricane Beryl will weaken, at least temporarily, when that happens.  Beryl could strengthen again after the Eyewall Replacement Cycle is over.

Hurricane Beryl will move around the southern side of a high pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Beryl toward the west-northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, the center of Hurricane Beryl will pass between Barbados and Tobago early on Monday.  Hurricane Beryl will begin to affect St. Lucia, Grenada, and St. Vincent and the Grenadine Islands later on Monday morning.

The core of Hurricane Beryl could pass very close to St. Lucia, Grenada and St. Vincent and the Grenadine Islands.  Beryl will be capable of causing regional severe damage.  Hurricane Beryl will also drop heavy rain.  Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations.  Hurricane Beryl could cause a storm surge of up to 13 feet (4 meters) on the parts of islands where the wind blows the water toward the shore.

Hurricane Beryl will also produce strong winds and heavy rain in Barbados, Tobago, and Martinique.  Gusty winds and heavy rain could occur in Trinidad and Dominica.

Elsewhere, Tropical Storm Chris formed over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico near the coast of Mexico.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Storm Chris was located at latitude 20.0°N and longitude 96.2°W which put the center about 105 miles (165 km) southeast of Tuxpan, Mexico.  Chris was moving toward the west at 13 m.p.h. (20 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1005 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Cabo Rojo to Puerto Veracruz, Mexico.

 

Bret Weakens to a Tropical Wave North of Colombia

Former Tropical Storm Bret weakened to a tropical wave over the Caribbean Sea north of Colombia. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Wave Bret was located at latitude 13.1°N and longitude 73.8°W which put it about 160 miles (260 km) west-northwest of the Guajira Peninsula, Colombia. Bret was moving toward the west at 21 m.p.h. (33 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1007 mb.

Former Tropical Storm Bret moved under the western part of an upper level trough over the eastern Caribbean Sea on Saturday. The upper level trough produced strong northwesterly winds that blew toward the top of Bret’s circulation. A subtropical high pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean produced strong easterly winds in the lower levels of the atmosphere. The combination of northwesterly winds in the upper levels and easterly winds in the lower levels caused strong vertical wind shear. The strong vertical wind shear prevented thunderstorms from persisting near the low level center of Bret’s circulation. The lack of thunderstorms near the center of circulation caused former Tropical Storm Bret to weaken.

The circulation around former Tropical Storm Bret still contained winds to tropical storm force in the northeastern quadrant of the system. Winds to tropical storm force were occurring in thunderstorms in bands about 115 miles (185 km) northeast of the center of Bret’s circulation. The winds in the other parts of former Tropical Storm Bret were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Former Tropical Storm Bret will move through an environment unfavorable for intensification during the next 36 hours. Bret will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28˚C. However, the strong vertical wind shear is forecast to continue. Former Tropical Storm Bret will continue to weaken during the next 36 hours as it moves quickly west toward Nicaragua.

Elsewhere over the Atlantic Ocean, Tropical Storm Cindy was spinning east-northeast of the Lesser Antilles. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Storm Cindy was located at latitude 17.8°N and longitude 54.7°W which put it about 465 miles (750 km) east-northeast of the Lesser Antilles. Cindy was moving toward the northwest at 21 m.p.h. (33 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1005 mb. Tropical Storm Cindy is forecast to move into an area where there will be strong vertical wind shear. Cindy is forecast to weaken during the next 36 hours.

Tropical Storm Bret Moves over Eastern Caribbean Sea

Tropical Storm Bret moved over the eastern Caribbean Sea on Friday morning. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Storm Bret was located at latitude 13.3°N and longitude 64.7°W which put it about 300 miles (480 km) east-northeast of Curacao. Bret was moving toward the west at 21 m.p.h. (33 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1002 mb.

Tropical Storm Bret was maintaining its intensity as it moved over the eastern Caribbean Sea on Friday morning. New thunderstorms developed near the low level center of circulation. However, the distribution of thunderstorms in Tropical Storm Bret remained asymmetrical. Most of the thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the eastern half of Bret’s circulation. Bands in the western half of the circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 125 miles (200 km) from the center of Tropical Storm Bret.

Tropical Storm Bret will move through an environment unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Bret will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28˚C. It will move under the southern part of an upper level trough over the eastern Caribbean Sea. The upper level trough will produce southwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Bret’s circulation. Bret will move around the southern side of a subtropical high pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean. The subtropical high will produce strong easterly winds in the lower levels of the atmosphere. Southwesterly winds in the upper level and the strong easterly winds in in the lower levels will cause strong vertical wind shear. The strong wind shear will cause Tropical Storm Bret to weaken during the next 24 hours. Bret could weaken to a tropical wave during the weekend.

Tropical Storm Bret will move south of a subtropical high pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean. The subtropical high will steer Bret toward the west during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Bret will pass north of Bonaire, Curacao and Aruba on Saturday.

Elsewhere over the Atlantic Ocean, Tropical Storm Cindy strengthened east of the Lesser Antilles. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Storm Cindy was located at latitude 12.5°N and longitude 48.0°W which put it about 915 miles (1470 km) east of the Lesser Antilles. Cindy was moving toward the west-northwest at 16 m.p.h. (26 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1003 mb.

Tropical Storm Bret Brings Wind and Rain to Lesser Antilles

Tropical Storm Bret brought gusty winds and rain to the Lesser Antilles on Thursday night. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Storm Bret was located at latitude 13.3°N and longitude 61.1°W which put it about 5 miles (10 km) east of St. Vincent. Bret was moving toward the west at 18 m.p.h. (29 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1004 mb.

Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for Barbados, St. Lucia, Martinique, Dominica and St. Vincent and the Grenadines.

Tropical Storm Bret brought gusty winds and locally heavy rain to the Lesser Antilles on Thursday night. A weather station in St. Lucia reported a sustained wind speed of 41 m.p.h. (67 km/h) and a wind gust of 69 m.p.h. (111 km/h). A weather station at Grantley Adams airport in Barbados reported a sustained wind speed of 26 m.p.h. (42 km/h) and a wind gust of 52 m.p.h. (84 km/h).

The intensity of Tropical Storm Bret peaked on Thursday morning at close to hurricane intensity. After its intensity peaked in the morning, the portion of Bret’s circulation in the lower levels raced out ahead (to the west) of the parts of the circulation in the middle and upper troposphere. The rapid movement of the circulation near the surface created strong vertical wind shear. The lower level circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Thunderstorms were occurring in bands the eastern part of Tropical Storm Brett. Those thunderstorms were occurring near the circulation center in the middle levels. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 115 miles (185 km) from the center of Bret’s circulation.

Tropical Storm Bret will move through an environment unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Bret will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28˚C. It will move under the eastern side of an upper level trough over the eastern Caribbean Sea. The upper level trough will produce southwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Bret’s circulation. Bret will move around the southern side of a subtropical high pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean. The subtropical high will produce strong easterly winds in the lower levels of the atmosphere. Southwesterly winds in the upper level and the strong easterly winds in in the lower levels will cause strong vertical wind shear. The strong wind shear will cause Tropical Storm Bret to weaken during the next 24 hours. Bret could weaken to a tropical wave during the weekend.

Tropical Storm Bret will move south of a subtropical high pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean. The subtropical high will steer Bret toward the west during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Bret will move over the Caribbean Sea west of the Lesser Antilles on Friday. Bret will continue to bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to St. Lucia, and St. Vincent and the Grenadines during the next few hours. Bands in the northern part of Bret’s circulation will also bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to Martinique and Dominica. Locally heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations. Gusty winds and locally heavy rain in Barbados will end on Friday when Tropical Storm Bret moves over the Caribbean Sea. .

Elsewhere over the Atlantic Ocean, Tropical Depression Four strengthened to Tropical Storm Cindy on Thursday evening halfway between Africa and the Lesser Antilles. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Storm Cindy was located at latitude 11.7°N and longitude 45.2°W which put it about 1110 miles (1785 km) east of the Lesser Antilles. Cindy was moving toward the west-northwest at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1006 mb.

Tropical Storm Bret Nears Barbados

Tropical Storm Bret moved near Barbados on Thursday afternoon. At 2:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Storm Bret was located at latitude 13.4°N and longitude 58.9°W which put it about 45 miles (75 km) east-northeast of Barbados. Bret was moving toward the west at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1002 mb.

Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for Barbados, St. Lucia, Martinique, Dominica and St. Vincent and the Grenadines. A Hurricane Watch was also in effect for St. Lucia.

The intensity of Tropical Storm Bret appeared to peak on Thursday morning. A U.S. Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft found that Bret was close to hurricane intensity on Thursday morning. A microwave satellite image showed an eyelike feature in the middle levels of Tropical Storm Bret. After its intensity peaked in the morning, the portion of Bret’s circulation in the lower levels appeared to race out ahead (to the west) of the parts of the circulation in the middle and upper troposphere during Thursday. The rapid movement of the circulation near the surface was creating strong vertical wind shear. The lower level circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Thunderstorms were occurring in bands the eastern part of Tropical Storm Brett. Those thunderstorms were occurring near the circulation center in the middle levels.

The distribution of wind around Tropical Storm Bret remained asymmetrical. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 115 miles (185 km) in the northern side of Bret’s circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 45 miles (75 km) in the southern part of Tropical Storm Bret.

Tropical Storm Bret will move through an environment unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Bret will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28˚C. It will move under the western end of an upper level ridge over the tropical Atlantic Ocean. The ridge will produce southerly winds that will blow toward the top of Bret’s circulation. Bret will move around the southern side of a subtropical high pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean. The subtropical high will produce strong easterly winds in the lower levels of the atmosphere. The strong easterly winds in in the lower levels will cause strong vertical wind shear. The strong wind shear will cause Tropical Storm Bret to weaken during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Storm Bret will move south of a subtropical high pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean. The subtropical high will steer Bret toward the west during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Bret will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to Barbados on Thursday afternoon. The center of Bret could pass close to St. Lucia on Thursday night. Tropical Storm Bret will bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to St. Lucia. Bands in the northern part of Bret’s circulation will also bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to Martinique and Dominica. Tropical Storm Bret could produce gusty winds and heavy rain over St. Vincent and the Grenadines. Locally heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Elsewhere over the Atlantic Ocean, Tropical Depression Four formed halfway between Africa and the Lesser Antilles. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Depression Four was located at latitude 11.3°N and longitude 42.9°W which put it about 1270 miles (2040 km) east of the Lesser Antilles. Tropical Depression Four was moving toward the west-northwest at 15 m.p.h. (24 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1007 mb.

Tropical Storm Bret Strengthens

Tropical Storm Bret strengthened on Wednesday as it moved closer to the Lesser Antilles. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Storm Bret was located at latitude 13.3°N and longitude 53.9°W which put it about 375 miles (605 km) east of Barbados. Bret was moving toward the west at 15 m.p.h. (24 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1000 mb.

Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for St. Lucia and Martinique. Tropical Storm Watches were in effect for Barbados and Dominica.

A U.S. Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft flying into Tropical Storm Bret on Wednesday afternoon found that Bret had strengthened. More thunderstorms developed near the center of Bret’s circulation. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Tropical Storm Bret. Storms near the center generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical storm. The size of the circulation around Bret increased when it strengthened. The reconnaissance plane found that the strongest winds were occurring northeast of the center of Tropical Storm Bret. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 105 miles (165 km) in the northern side of Bret’s circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 45 miles (75 km) in the southern side of the circulation.

Tropical Storm Bret will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Bret will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28˚C. It will move under the axis of an upper level ridge over the tropical Atlantic Ocean. The upper level winds are weak near the axis of the ridge. There could be slightly stronger winds in the middle troposphere which could cause some vertical wind shear in those levels. Stronger wind shear in the middle troposphere could prevent intensification of Tropical Storm Bret during the next 24 hours. However, if the winds in the middle levels are not too strong, then Bret could strengthen to a hurricane.

Tropical Storm Bret will move south of a subtropical high pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean. The subtropical high will steer Bret toward the west during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Bret could bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to Barbados on Thursday afternoon. Bret could bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to St. Lucia, Martinique, and Dominica on Thursday night. Locally heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Tropical Storm Bret Prompts Watch for Barbados

The potential effects of Tropical Storm Bret prompted the issuance of a Tropical Storm Watch for Barbados on Tuesday afternoon. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Storm Bret was located at latitude 12.2°N and longitude 48.6°W which put it about 835 miles (1350 km) east of the Lesser Antilles. Tropical Storm Bret was moving toward the west at 18 m.p.h. (29 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1006 mb.

A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for Barbados.

The potential effects of Tropical Storm Bret prompted the government of Barbados to issue a Tropical Storm Watch on Tuesday afternoon. The circulation around Tropical Storm Bret strengthened gradually on Tuesday. More thunderstorms formed just to the west of the center of Bret’s circulation on Tuesday afternoon. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of circulation. Storms near the center generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical storm. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 45 miles (75 km) from the center of Tropical Storm Bret.

Tropical Storm Bret will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Bret will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28˚C. It will move under the axis of an upper level ridge over the tropical Atlantic Ocean. The upper level winds are weak near the axis of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Storm Bret will intensify during the next 24 hours. Bret could strengthen to a hurricane later this week.

Tropical Storm Bret will move south of a subtropical high pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean. The subtropical high will steer Bret toward the west during the next 24 hours. Bret could move more toward the west-northwest later this week. On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Bret could bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to Barbados on Thursday. Bret could reach some of the other islands in the Lesser Antilles by Thursday night. Additional watches and warnings are likely to be issued as Tropical Storm Bret moves closer to the Lesser Antilles. Planes are scheduled to start to fly reconnaissance missions into Tropical Storm Bret starting on Wednesday afternoon.

Tropical Depression Three Strengthens to Tropical Storm Bret

Former Tropical Depression Three strengthened to Tropical Storm Bret east of the Lesser Antilles on Monday afternoon. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Storm Bret was located at latitude 11.3°N and longitude 42.2°W which put it about 1295 miles (2085 km) east of the Lesser Antilles. Tropical Storm Bret was moving toward the west at 21 m.p.h. (33 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1008 mb.

Satellite images provided evidence that the circulation around former Tropical Depression Three strengthened on Monday afternoon and the National Hurricane Center upgraded the system to Tropical Storm Bret. The inner end of a rainband wrapped part of the way around the center of Tropical Storm Bret. Other bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of circulation. Storms near the center of Bret’s circulation generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical storm. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 45 miles (75 km) in the eastern side of Tropical Storm Bret. The winds on the western side of the circulation were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Storm Bret will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 36 hours. Bret will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28˚C. It will move under the axis of an upper level ridge over the tropical Atlantic Ocean. The upper level winds are weak near the axis of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Storm Bret will intensify during the next 36 hours. Bret could strengthen to a hurricane later this week.

Tropical Storm Bret will move south of a subtropical high pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean. The subtropical high will steer Bret toward the west during the next 36 hours. Bret could move more toward the west-northwest later this week. On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Bret could approach the Lesser Antilles on Thursday. Bret could be a hurricane by that time. Planes are scheduled to start to fly reconnaissance missions into Tropical Storm Bret starting on Wednesday afternoon.

Tropical Depression Three Forms East of Lesser Antilles

Tropical Depression Three formed over the Atlantic Ocean east of the Lesser Antilles on Monday morning. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Depression Three was located at latitude 11.0°N and longitude 40.3°W which put it about 1425 miles (2295 km) east of the Lesser Antilles. Tropical Depression Three was moving toward the west at 21 m.p.h. (33 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1009 mb.

A circulation within a tropical wave previously designated as Invest 92L strengthened on Monday morning and the National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Depression Three. More thunderstorms were developing near the center of Tropical Depression Three. Other bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of circulation. Storms near the center generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical depression.

Tropical Depression Three will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 36 hours. The tropical depression will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28˚C. It will move under the axis of an upper level ridge over the tropical Atlantic Ocean. The upper level winds are weak near the axis of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Depression Three is likely to strengthen to a tropical storm during the next 24 hours. It could strengthen to a hurricane later this week.

Tropical Depression Three will move south of a subtropical high pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean. The subtropical high will steer the tropical depression toward the west during the next 36 hours. It could move more toward the west-northwest later this week. On its anticipated track, Tropical Depression Three could approach the Lesser Antilles on Thursday. It could be a hurricane by that time.