Tag Archives: Windward Islands

Tropical Storm Warnings Issued for Trinidad, Tobago and Grenada

Tropical Storm Warnings were issued for Trinidad, Tobago and Grenada on Monday afternoon. A tropical wave formerly designated as Invest 94L was redesignated as Potential Tropical Cyclone Two. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Potential Tropical Cyclone Two was located at latitude 8.6°N and longitude 50.9°W which put it about 720 miles (1155 km) east of Trinidad. Potential Tropical Cyclone Two was moving toward the west-northwest at 18 m.p.h. (30 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1009 mb.

Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for Trinidad and Tobago, and Grenada and its dependencies.

A NOAA aircraft investigated former Invest 94L on Monday afternoon. The plane was unable to find a distinct low level center of circulation, but it did find winds to tropical storm force. Since there was no distinct low level center of circulation, the system was still considered to be a tropical wave. There was a broad area of counterclockwise rotation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 60 miles (95 km) in the northern side of Potential Tropical Cyclone Two. The winds in the southern side of the system were blowing at less than tropical storm force. There were mostly showers and lower clouds near the center of the broad rotation. Thunderstorms were occurring in the western and northern parts of the tropical wave. The southern and eastern parts of the wave contained showers and lower clouds.

The tropical wave will move south of a subtropical high pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean during the next few days. The high pressure system will steer the tropical wave toward the west. On its anticipated track Potential Tropical Cyclone Two will approach the Windward Islands on Tuesday night.

The tropical wave will move through an environment that is favorable for the development of a tropical cyclone during the next 36 hours. The wave will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28˚C. It will move through a region where the winds in the troposphere will blow from the east at most levels and there will be little vertical wind shear. The circulation around the tropical wave could gradually become more organized during the next few days. Potential Tropical Cyclone Two could become a tropical storm before it reaches Trinidad, Tobago and Grenada. Even if the system is still a tropical wave, it will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to the southern Windward Islands. Potential Tropical Cyclone Two could also bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to the northern coast of Venezuela.

Tropical Wave Moves Toward Windward Islands

A tropical wave designated as Invest 94L moved toward the Windward Islands on Sunday. There was a broad counterclockwise rotation in the lower levels of the wave. At 8:00 a.m. EDT on Sunday the center of the broad rotation was located at latitude 7.8°N and longitude 42.8°W which put it about 1250 miles (2015 km) east-southeast of the Windward Islands. The tropical wave was moving toward the west at 20 m.p.h. (32 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 30 m.p.h. (50 km/h) and and there were wind gusts to 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1009 mb.

A tropical wave designated as Invest 94L was located midway between Africa and the Windward Islands on Sunday morning. Loops of visible satellite images showed that a broad counterclockwise rotation was occurring in the lower levels of the tropical wave. There were mostly showers and lower clouds near the center of the broad rotation. Many of the thunderstorms were in the western and northern parts of the tropical wave. The southern eastern parts of the wave contained showers and lower clouds.

The tropical wave will move south of a subtropical high pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean. The high pressure system will steer the tropical wave toward the west during the next few days. On its anticipated track the tropical wave could approach the Windward Islands on Tuesday.

The tropical wave will move into an environment that is favorable for the development of a tropical cyclone. The wave will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28˚C. It will move through a region where the winds in the troposphere will blow from the east at most levels and there will be little vertical wind shear. The circulation around the tropical wave could gradually become more organized during the next few days. The National Hurricane Center is indicating the probability is 70% that the tropical wave develops into a tropical depression during the next five days. A NOAA aircraft is tentatively scheduled to investigate the tropical wave on Monday, if necessary.

Elsa Strengthens to a Hurricane near Barbados

Former Tropical Storm Elsa strengthened to a hurricane near Barbados on Friday morning. At 8:30 a.m. EDT on Friday the center of Hurricane Elsa was located at latitude 13.1°N and longitude 60.1°W which put it about 40 miles (65 km) west of Barbados. Elsa was moving toward the west-northwest at 28 m.p.h. (44 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 995 mb.

Hurricane Warnings were in effect for Barbados, St. Lucia, St. Vincent and the Grenadines. A Hurricane Watch was issued for the portion of the coast from Port Au Prince, Haiti to the southern border with the Dominican Republic. Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for Martinique, the entire coast of Haiti, and for the coast from Cabo Engano, Dominican Republic to the southern border with Haiti. Tropical Storm Watches were in effect for Grenada, Jamaica, Dominca, Saba and St. Eustatius.

A weather station on Barbados measured a sustained wind speed of 74 m.p.h. (119 km/h) and a wind gust to 86 m.p.h. (139 km/h) on Friday morning, and the National Hurricane Center upgraded former Tropical Storm Elsa to a hurricane. Despite moving toward the west-northwest very quickly, Elsa intensified rapidly during Thursday night. An eye appeared to be developing at the center of Hurricane Elsa on microwave satellite imagery. The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the eastern side of the eye and the strongest winds were occurring in that part of the hurricane.

The distribution of thunderstorms was still asymmetrical in Hurricane Elsa. The strongest thunderstorms were occurring in bands on the eastern and southern side of Elsa. Bands in the northwestern part of the circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Storms near the center of circulation generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the hurricane. Winds to hurricane force extended out 25 miles (40 km) on the northern side of Elsa. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 140 miles (220 km) from the center of circulation.

Hurricane Elsa will move through an environment mostly favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Elsa will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C. It will move through a region where the winds in the upper and lower levels will blow from the east. The winds in the lower levels could be stronger, which would generate vertical wind shear. The shear will inhibit intensification, but Hurricane Elsa has strengthened in spite of the wind shear. Hurricane Elsa could intensify during the next 24 hours.

Hurricane Elsa will move south of the subtropical high pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean during the next 24 hours. The high is forecast to steer Elsa quickly toward the west-northwest. On its anticipated track the center of Hurricane Elsa will pass near St. Lucia and St. Vincent in a few hours. Elsa will produce gusty winds and locally heavy rain over the Windward Islands. Hurricane Elsa will be near Hispaniola on Saturday. Elsa could pass near Jamaica and Cuba on Sunday. Hurricane Elsa could approach South Florida or the Gulf of Mexico by early next week.

Tropical Storm Elsa Strengthens, Will Hit Windward Islands Friday

Tropical Storm Elsa strengthened on Thursday night. Elsa was on course to hit the Windward Islands on Friday. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Storm Elsa was located at latitude 11.8°N and longitude 55.9°W which put it about 260 miles (420 km) east-southeast of Barbados. Elsa was moving toward the west at 26 m.p.h. (43 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (95 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1003 mb.

Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for Barbados, Martinique, St. Lucia, St. Vincent and the Grenadines. Tropical Storm Watches were in effect for Grenada and Jamaica. Tropical Storm Watches were also in effect for the portion of the coast from Punta Palenque, Dominican Republic to the southern border from Haiti, and from the southern border with the Dominican Republic to Le Mole St. Nicholas, Haiti.

Despite moving quickly toward the west-northwest, the circulation around Tropical Storm Elsa strengthened on Thursday night. The inner end of a rainband wrapped partly around the northeastern portion of the center of circulation. The strongest thunderstorms were occurring mainly in bands in the southern and eastern parts of Elsa. Bands in the western half of the tropical storm consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Storms near the center of circulation generated more upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical storm. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 140 miles (220 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Storm Elsa will move through an environment mostly favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Elsa will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C. It will move through a region where the winds in the upper and lower levels will blow from the east. The winds in the lower levels will be stronger, which will generate vertical wind shear. The shear will inhibit intensification, but Tropical Storm Elsa is forecast to strengthen. If the winds in the lower levels get stronger than they are forecast to be, then those winds could push the lower part of Elsa west of the upper half of the tropical storm. If the lower and upper halves of Tropical Storm Elsa’s circulation decouple, then it would weaken.

Tropical Storm Elsa will move south of a subtropical high pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean during the next two days. The high will steer Elsa quickly toward the west-northwest. On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Elsa will move across the Windward Islands on Friday. Elsa will produce gusty winds and locally heavy rain over the Windward Islands. Locally heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations. Tropical Storm Elsa could be near Hispaniola on Saturday and it could approach Jamaica and Cuba on Sunday. Elsa could be near South Florida or the Gulf of Mexico by early next week.

Tropical Storm Watches Issued for Windward Islands

Tropical Storm Watches were issued for the Windward Islands on Wednesday afternoon because of the forecast intensification of a tropical wave. The National Hurricane Center changed the designation of the tropical wave from Invest 97L to Potential Tropical Cyclone Five when it began issuing advisories on the system. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Potential Tropical Cyclone Five was located at latitude 9.6°N and longitude 43.7°W which put it about 1195 miles (1920 km) east of the Windward Islands. The tropical wave was moving toward the west-northwest at 21 m.p.h. (33 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1008 mb.

Tropical Storm Watches were issued for Barbados, St. Vincent, the Grenadines, St. Lucia and Martinique.

A tropical wave east of the Windward Islands exhibited more organization on Wednesday afternoon and the National Hurricane Center designated the system as Potential Tropical Cyclone Five in order to be able to issue Tropical Storm Watches for several of the Windward Islands. The center of the tropical wave continued to be elongated. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were developing around the elongated center. Storms near the center generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical wave. The strongest upper level divergence was to the west of the wave.

Potential Tropical Cyclone Five will move through an environment mostly favorable for intensification during the next 36 hours. The tropical wave will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 27.5°C. It will move through a region where the winds in the upper and lower levels will blow from the east. The winds in the lower levels could be stronger, which would generate vertical wind shear. The shear will inhibit intensification, but Potential Tropical Cyclone Five is forecast to develop into a tropical storm.

Potential Tropical Cyclone Five will move south of the subtropical high pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean during the next few days. The high is forecast to steer the tropical wave toward the west-northwest. On its anticipated track Potential Tropical Cyclone Five could approach the Windward Islands on Friday morning. It is forecast to be a tropical storm when it reaches the Windward Islands.

Tropical Storm Hanna Prompts Hurricane Warning for Texas

A strengthening Tropical Storm Hanna prompted the issuance of a Hurricane Warning for a portion of the coast of Texas on Friday afternoon.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Storm Hanna was located at latitude 27.3°N and longitude 94.3°W which put it about 195 miles (310 km) east of Corpus Christi, Texas.  Hanna was moving toward the west at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 999 mb.

A Hurricane Warning was in effect for the portion of the Texas coast from Baffin Bay to Mesquite Bay.  Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for the portions of the coast from the Mouth of the Rio Grande River to Baffin Bay and from Mesquite Bay to San Luis Pass, Texas.

Tropical Storm Hanna exhibited much more organization on Friday afternoon.  A primary rainband wrapped around the southern and eastern sides of the center of Hanna.  The northern end of the rainband appeared to be wrapping around the rest of the center of circulation and an eye seemed to be forming.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Tropical Storm Hanna.  Storms near the center were generating upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the tropical storm.  The removal of mass was allowing the surface pressure to decrease.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 60 miles (95 km) from the center for circulation.

Tropical Storm Hanna will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 18 hours.  Hanna will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Storm Hanna will continue to intensify.  If an eye and eyewall form completely, then Hanna could strengthen rapidly during the 6 to 12 hours prior to landfall.  Tropical Storm Hanna is very likely to intensify into a hurricane.

Tropical Storm Hanna will move south of a high pressure system that stretches across the southern U.S.  The high will steer Hanna toward the west during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Hanna will reach the coast of Texas near Corpus Christi during the middle of the day on Saturday.

Tropical Storm Hanna is very likely to be a hurricane when it makes landfall.  It will bring strong winds to the portion of the coast near where the eye makes landfall.  Strong winds blowing water toward the coast could create a storm surge of 6 to 8 feet (2 to 3 meters) near and to the north of where the eye makes landfall.

Elsewhere, a trade wind surge hit Tropical Storm Gonzalo from the northeast.  The surge caused increased low level wind shear and it brought drier air.  The increased shear and drier air caused Gonzalo to weaken.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Storm Gonzalo was located at latitude 10.0°N and 55.6°W which put it about 390 miles (625 km) east of the southern Windward Islands.  Gonzalo was moving toward the west at 18 m.p.h. (30 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km.h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1008 mb.

Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for Barbados, Tobago, Grenada, and St. Vincent and the Grenadines.

Tropical Depression Eight Strengthens to Tropical Storm Hanna

Former Tropical Depression Eight strengthened to Tropical Storm Hanna on Thursday night and a Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for a large portion of the coast of Texas.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Storm Hanna was located at latitude 26.2°N and longitude 91.4°W which put it about 385 miles (620 km) east-southeast of Corpus Christi, Texas.  Hanna was moving toward the west-northwest at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1002 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from the Mouth of the Rio Grande River to San Luis Pass, Texas.  A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from San Luis Pass to High Island, Texas.

A NOAA aircraft detected winds to tropical storm force in former Tropical Depression Eight on Thursday night and the National Hurricane Center upgraded the system to Tropical Storm Hanna.  The surface pressure was decreasing and Tropical Storm Hanna was exhibiting greater organization.  A band of thunderstorms was wrapping around the southern and eastern sides of the center of circulation.  Thunderstorms were forming in other bands the were revolving around the center of circulation.  Storms near the center began to generate upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the tropical storm.  The removal of mass allowed the surface pressure to decrease.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 35 miles (55 km) from the center in the eastern quadrant of Tropical Storm Hanna.  Winds in the other parts of Hanna were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Storm Hanna will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 36 hours.  Hanna will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Storm Hanna will continue to intensify and there is a chance it could strengthen into a hurricane.

Tropical Storm Hanna will move south of a high pressure system that extends from the Atlantic Ocean across the southern U.S.  The high will steer Hanna slowly toward the west.  On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Hanna will approach the coast of Texas near Corpus Christi on Saturday.  Hanna could be a strong tropical storm or a hurricane when it reaches the coast.

Elsewhere, Tropical Storm Gonzalo continued to churn toward the Windward Islands.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Storm Gonzalo was located at latitude 9.9°N and longitude 50.6°W which put it about 730 miles (1170 km) east of the southern Windward Islands.  Gonzalo was moving toward the west at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1000 mb.

A Hurricane Watch was in effect for Barbados and St. Vincent and the Grenadines.  A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for Tobago and Grenada.

Tropical Depression Eight Forms Over Gulf of Mexico

Tropical Depression Eight formed over the Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday night and a Tropical Storm Watch was issued for the coast of Texas.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Depression Eight was located at latitude 25.9°N and longitude 88.2°W which put it about 530 miles (855 km) east-southeast of Port Oconnor, Texas.  The depression was moving toward the west-northwest at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 30 m.p.h. (50 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1009 mb.

A Tropical Storm Watch was issued for the portion of the coast of Texas from Port Mansfield to High Island.

More thunderstorms formed near the center of a low pressure system over the Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday night and the National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Depression Eight.  The thunderstorms were forming in bands in the northern half of the circulation.  Bands in the southern half of the depression consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.

Tropical Depression Eight will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 36 hours.  The depression will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  An upper level low over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico will produce southerly winds which will blow toward the top of the depression.  Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear, but the shear will not be enough to prevent intensification.  Tropical Depression Eight is likely to strengthen into a tropical storm during the next 36 hours.

Tropical Depression Eight will move south of a subtropical high pressure system that extends from the western Atlantic Ocean across the southern U.S.  The high will steer the depression toward the west-northwest.  On its anticipated track Tropical Depression Eight could approach the coast of Texas on Friday night.  It is likely to be a tropical storm when it approaches the coast.

Elsewhere, Tropical Storm Gonzalo strengthened as it moved toward the Windward Islands and a Hurricane Watch was issued for Barbados.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Storm Gonzalo was located at latitude 9.9°N and longitude 45.9°W which put it about 1045 miles (1685 km) east of the southern Windward Islands.  Gonzalo was moving toward the west at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 998 mb.

TD 7 Strengthens Into Tropical Storm Gonzalo

Former Tropical Depression Seven strengthened into Tropical Storm Gonzalo on Wednesday morning.  At 11:00 a.m.  EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Storm Gonzalo was located at latitude 9.9°N and longitude 43.6°W which put it about 1205 miles (1935 km) east of the southern Windward Islands.  Gonzalo was moving toward the west at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1000 mb.

The circulation around former Tropical Depression Seven exhibited much better organization on Wednesday morning and the National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Storm Gonzalo.  A band of thunderstorms curved around the southern and eastern sides of the center of circulation.  The inner end of the band appeared to be wrapping farther around the center and visible satellite images suggested that an eye could be forming.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Gonzalo.  Storms near the center were generating upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the tropical storm.  The circulation around Tropical Storm Gonzalo was small.  Winds to tropical storm force only extended out 25 miles (40 km) from the center of circulation.

Tropical Storm Gonzalo will move through an environment favorable for intensification.  Gonzalo will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29.5°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical  wind shear.  Tropical Storm Gonzalo is likely to intensify and it could strengthen into a hurricane during the next 36 hours.  Small tropical cyclones like Gonzalo can change intensity rapidly if they move into a different type of environment.

Tropical Storm Gonzalo will move south of the subtropical high pressure system over the North Atlantic Ocean.  The high will steer Gonzalo toward the west.  On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Gonzalo could approach the Windward Islands on Saturday.  Watches could be issued for some of those islands when Gonzalo moves closer.

Elsewhere, more thunderstorms were developing around a low pressure system over the Gulf of Mexico that is currently designated as Invest 91L.  At 8:00 a.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Invest 91L was located at latitude 25.7°N and longitude 87.9°W which put it about 645 miles (1040 km) east-southeast of Corpus Christi, Texas.  The low pressure system was moving toward the west-northwest at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 30 m.p.h. (50 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1011 mb.  The National Hurricane Center was indicating the probability was 50% that the low pressure system would develop into a tropical cyclone.

Tropical Depression Seven Forms East of Windward Islands

Tropical Depression Seven formed east of the Windward Islands on Tuesday afternoon.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Depression Seven was located at latitude 9.8°N and longitude 40.4°W which put it about 1420 miles (2285 km) east of the southern Windward Islands.  It was moving toward the west-northwest at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1009 mb.

An area of low pressure between the coast of Africa and the Windward Islands exhibited more organization on Tuesday afternoon and the National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Depression Seven.  The circulation around Tropical Depression Seven was still organizing.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were developing and the bands were revolving around the center of circulation.  Storms near the center started to generate upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the tropical depression.

Tropical Depression Seven will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next several days.  The depression will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29.5°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level winds will be weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Depression Seven is likely to strengthen into a tropical storm during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Depression Seven will move south of a subtropical high pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean.  The high will steer the depression toward the west during the next few days.  On its anticipated track Tropical Depression Seven could approach the Windward Islands on Saturday.

Elsewhere, a tropical wave over the eastern Gulf of Mexico was designated as Invest 91L on Tuesday afternoon.  At 2:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Invest 91L was located at latitude 25.2°N and longitude 84.7°W which put it about 200 miles (320 km) west of Key West, Florida.  It was moving toward the west-northwest at 18 m.p.h. (30 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 30 m.p.h. (50 km/h) and there were wind gusts: to 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1014 mb.  The National Hurricane Center indicated that there was a 40% probability of the formation of a tropical depression.