Tag Archives: Tropical Storm Beryl

Hurricane Beryl Brings Wind and Rain to East Texas

Hurricane Beryl brought wind and rain to east Texas on Monday morning.  Beryl weakened to a tropical storm late on Monday morning.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Storm Beryl was located at latitude 29.8°N and longitude 95.7°W which put the center about 20 miles (30 km) west-northwest of Houston, Texas.  Beryl was moving toward the north at 13 m.p.h. (20 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 70 m.p.h. (110 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 984 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Port O’Connor to Sabine Pass, Texas.

A Storm Surge Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Port O’Connor to Sabine Pass, Texas.

The center of Hurricane Beryl made landfall on the coast of Texas at Matagorda early on Monday morning.  Beryl was intensifying at the time of landfall.  The maximum sustained wind speed in Hurricane Beryl was 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h) at the time of landfall.  A circular eye with a diameter of 32 miles (52 km) was present at the center of Beryl’s circulation at the time of landfall.

The strongest winds in Hurricane Beryl were occurring in the eastern half of Beryl’s circulation.  At the time of landfall winds to hurricane force extended out 45 miles (75 km) in the eastern side of Beryl.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 115 miles (185 km) from the center of Hurricane Beryl.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Hurricane Beryl at the time of landfall was 11.5.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 10.3 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 21.8.  Hurricane Beryl was not quite as strong as Hurricane Dolly was when Dolly hit South Texas in 2008.  Beryl was a little smaller that Dolly was.

The eye of Hurricane Beryl passed directly over Matagorda, Texas.  A weather station at Matagorda, Texas (EMAT2) reported a sustained wind speed of 68 m.p.h. (110 km/h) when the northern part of the eyewall passed over the station.  The station also reported a wind gust of 86 m.p.h. (139 km/h).  The station reported a surface pressure of 980 mb when the eye of Hurricane Beryl was over it.

A weather station at Freeport, Texas (FPST2) reported a sustained wind speed of 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and a wind gust of 87 m.p.h. (141 km/h).

A weather station at the North Jetty Entrance to Galveston Bay (GNJT2) reported a sustained wind speed of 72 m.p.h. (117 km/h) and a wind gust of 82 m.p.h. (132 km/h).

After Hurricane Beryl made landfall on the coast of Texas, the center of Beryl’s circulation passed just to the west of Houston.  The eastern side of Beryl’s eyewall passed over Houston.  Beryl brought strong winds and heavy rain to the area around Houston.

A weather station at Houston Hobby Airport reported a sustained wind speed of 58 m.p.h. (94 km/h) and a wind gust of 84 m.p.h. 135 km/h).  The weather station also reported 4.15 inches (105 mm) of rain.

A weather station at Houston Intercontinental Airport reported a sustained wind speed of 59 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and a wind gust of 82 m.p.h. (132 km/h).  The station also reported 4.31 inches of rain.

The strong winds in Hurricane Beryl caused widespread electricity outages in east Texas.  There were reports of 2.5 million customers without electricity.

The strong winds in Hurricane Beryl caused a storm surge along the coast of Texas.  There were reports of water level rises of 5 feet (1.5 meters) at multiple locations along the coast.

Tropical Storm Beryl will move under the southeastern part of an upper level trough over the Central U.S.  The upper level trough will steer Beryl toward the north-northeast during the next 12 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Beryl will move over northeast Texas later today.  The upper level trough will steer Beryl toward the northeast on Tuesday.  Beryl will move over Arkansas on Tuesday morning.

Tropical Storm Beryl will continue to weaken gradually as it moves farther inland.  Beryl will continue to produce strong winds over east Texas during the next few hours.  Widespread minor wind damage is likely to occur.  There are also likely to be additional electricity outages.  Tropical Storm Beryl could drop up to 8 inches (200 mm) of rain on some locations.   Heavy rain is likely to cause flooding.  Flood Watches are in effect for parts of eastern Texas.  Flood Watches are also in effect for parts of southeastern Oklahoma, southwestern Arkansas and northwestern Louisiana.  Tropical Storm Beryl will continue to cause a storm surge of up to 5 feet (1.5 meters) along the coast until the wind speeds decrease when Beryl moves farther away.

 

Tropical Storm Beryl Approaches Texas Coast

Tropical Storm Beryl was approaching the coast of Texas on Sunday night.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Storm Beryl was located at latitude 27.6°N and longitude 95.6°W which put the center about 75 miles (120 km) south-southeast of Matagorda, Texas.  Beryl was moving toward the north-northwest at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 70 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 986 mb.

A Hurricane Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Mesquite Bay to Port Bolivar, Texas.

A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Mesquite Bay to Port Mansfield, Texas.  A Tropical Storm Warning was also in effect for the portion of the coast from Port Bolivar to Sabine Pass, Texas.

A Storm Surge Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Mesquite Bay to Sabine Pass, Texas.

Tropical Storm Beryl was strengthening slowly but steadily on Sunday evening.  The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the center of Beryl’s circulation.  A circular eye with a diameter of 45 miles (75 km) was at the center of Tropical Storm Beryl.  The eye was surrounded by a broken ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms revolved around the center to Tropical Storm Beryl.  Storms near the center of circulation generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical storm.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease slowly.

The circulation around Tropical Storm Beryl became more symmetrical on Sunday.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 115 miles (185 km) from the center of Beryl’s circulation.

Tropical Storm Beryl will move through an environment that will be favorable for intensification during the next few hours.  Beryl will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C.   It will move under an upper level ridge over the Gulf of Mexico.  The upper level winds are weak in the ridge and there will be be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Storm Beryl will continue to intensify during the next few hours.   Beryl is very likely to strengthen to a hurricane.  There could be a brief period of more rapid intensification if an inner core with an eye and and eyewall develops fully.

Tropical Storm Beryl will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system over the southeastern U.S.  The high pressure system will steer Beryl toward the north during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, the of Tropical Storm Beryl will make landfall on the coast of Texas on Monday.

Tropical Storm Beryl is very likely to be a hurricane when it reaches the coast of Texas.  Beryl will bring strong winds and heavy rain to parts of eastern Texas.  The strong winds are likely to cause power outages.  Up to 10 inches (250 mm) of rain could fall in some locations.  Heavy rain is likely to cause flooding.  Flood Watches were in effect for parts of eastern Texas.  Tropical Storm Beryl could also cause a storm surge of up to 10 feet (3 meters) where the wind pushes water toward the coast.

 

Tropical Storm Beryl Churns Toward Texas

Tropical Storm Beryl churned toward the coast of Texas on Saturday.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Storm Beryl was located at latitude 24.7°N and longitude 94.0°W which put the center about 300 miles (485 km) southeast of Corpus Christi, Texas.  Beryl was moving toward the northwest at 13 m.p.h. (20 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 993 mb.

A Hurricane Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Baffin Bay to Sargent, Texas.

Hurricane Watches were in effect from the portions of the coast from Baffin Bay, Texas to the Mouth of the Rio Grande River and from Sargent to San Luis Pass, Texas.

A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Baffin Bay, Texas to the Mouth of the Rio Grande River.  A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Sargent to High Island, Texas.  A Tropical Storm Warning was also in effect for the portion of the coast from the Mouth of the Rio Grande River to Barra el Mezquital, Mexico.

A Storm Surge Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from the north end of Padre Island to High Island, Texas.

Storm Surge Watches were in effect for the portion of the coast from the Mouth of the Rio Grande River to the north end of Padre Island, Texas and from High Island to Sabine Pass, Texas.

The structure of Tropical Storm Beryl did not change a lot on Saturday.  The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the western side of the center of Beryl’s circulation.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms revolved around the center to Tropical Storm Beryl.  Storms near the center of circulation generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical storm.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease slowly.

The size of the circulation around Tropical Storm Beryl also did not change much on Saturday.   Winds to tropical storm force extended out 125 miles (200 km) in the northern half of Beryl’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force only extended out 45 miles in the southern half of Tropical Storm Beryl.

Tropical Storm Beryl will move into an environment that will become more favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours . Beryl will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C.  It will move under the northern part of an upper level low over the western Gulf of Mexico.  The upper level low will produce southeasterly winds that will blow toward the top of Beryl’s circulation.  The winds in the lower levels of the atmosphere will also blow from the southeast.  Since the winds in the upper and lower levels will blow from the southeast, there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Storm Beryl will intensify during the next 24 hours.  Beryl is likely to strengthen to a hurricane.  Beryl could intensify rapidly if an inner core with an eye and and eyewall develops.  There is a chance Beryl could intensify to a major hurricane before it reaches the coast.

Tropical Storm Beryl will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system over the southeastern U.S.  The high pressure system will steer Beryl toward the northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Beryl will approach the coast of Texas on Sunday night.

Tropical Storm Beryl is likely to be a hurricane when it reaches the coast of Texas.  Beryl will bring strong winds and heavy rain to parts of eastern Texas.  Up to 10 inches (250 mm) of rain could fall in some locations.  Heavy rain is likely to cause flooding.  Flood Watches were in effect for parts of eastern Texas.  Tropical Storm Beryl could also cause a storm surge of up to 10 feet (3 meters) where the wind pushes water toward the coast.

Tropical Storm Beryl Moves Toward Texas

Tropical Storm Beryl moved toward Texas on Saturday morning.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Storm Beryl was located at latitude 23.0°N and longitude 92.3°W which put the center about 460 miles (740 km) southeast of Corpus Christi, Texas.  Beryl was moving toward the west-northwest at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 997 mb.

A Hurricane Watch was in effect from the portion of the coast from the Mouth of the Rio Grande River to San Luis Pass, Texas.  The Hurricane Watch included Corpus Christi.

A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Baffin Bay, Texas to the Mouth of the Rio Grande River.  A Tropical Storm Warning was also in effect for the portion of the coast from the Mouth of the Rio Grande River to Barra el Mezquital, Mexico.

A Storm Surge Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from the Mouth of the Rio Grande River to High Island, Texas.

Tropical Storm Beryl exhibited more organization on Saturday morning.  More thunderstorms formed near the center of Beryl’s circulation.  The inner end of a band of thunderstorms wrapped around the center of circulation.  Storms near the center generated more upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical storm.  The removal of more mass caused the surface pressure to start to decrease again.  More thunderstorms were also forming in bands revolving around the center of Beryl’s circulation.

The winds at the surface were just starting to be affected by the new thunderstorms in Tropical Storm Beryl.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 125 miles (200 km) in the northern half of Beryl’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force only extended out 45 miles in the southern half of Tropical Storm Beryl.

Beryl will move into an environment that will become more favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Beryl will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move under the northeastern part of an upper level low over the western Gulf of Mexico.  The upper level low will produce southeasterly winds that will blow toward the top of Beryl’s circulation.  Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear, but the wind shear is likely to decrease by Sunday.  The wind shear will inhibit intensification, but the shear will not be enough to prevent strengthening.  Tropical Storm Beryl will intensify during the next 24 hours.  Beryl is likely to strengthen to a hurricane.  Beryl could intensify more rapidly when it approaches the Texas coast on Sunday.  There is a chance Beryl could intensify to a major hurricane by the end of the weekend.

Tropical Storm Beryl will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system over the southeastern U.S.  The high pressure system will steer Beryl toward the northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Beryl will continue to move toward the coast of Texas.  Beryl could approach the coast of Texas on Sunday night.

Tropical Storm Beryl Prompts Hurricane and Storm Surge Watches for Texas

The risk posed by Tropical Storm Beryl prompted the issuance of Hurricane and Storm Watches for a portion of the coast of Texas.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Storm Beryl was located at latitude 21.2°N and longitude 89.2°W which put the center about 35 miles (55 km) east-southwest of Progreso, Mexico.  Beryl was moving toward the west-northwest at 15 m.p.h. (24 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 989 mb.

A Hurricane Watch was in effect from the portion of the coast from the Mouth of the Rio Grande River to Sargent, Texas.  The Hurricane Watch included Corpus Christi.  A Hurricane Watch was also in effect for the portion of the coast from the Mouth of the Rio Grande River to Barra el Mezquital, Mexico

A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Campeche to Cabo Catoche, Mexico.

A Storm Surge Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from the Mouth of the Rio Grande River to Sargent, Texas.

Former Hurricane Beryl weakened to a tropical storm as it moved across the northern part of the Yucatan Peninsula on Friday.  An eye was no longer detectable on visible satellite images, but the core of Beryl’s circulation appeared to be relatively intact.  Thunderstorms were still occurring near the center of Tropical Storm Beryl.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of circulation.  Storms near the center still generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical storm.

Winds to tropical storm force extended out 105 miles (165 km/h) from the center of Tropical Storm Beryl.

Tropical Storm Beryl will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system over the southeastern U.S.  The high pressure system will steer Beryl toward the northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Beryl will move toward the coast of Texas.  Beryl could approach the coast of Texas on Sunday night.

Beryl will move into an environment that will become more favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Beryl will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move under the eastern part of an upper level low over the western Gulf of Mexico.  The upper level low will produce southerly winds that will blow toward the top of Beryl’s circulation.  Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear.  The wind shear will inhibit intensification, but the shear will not be enough to prevent strengthening.  Tropical Storm Beryl is likely to strengthen slowly during the next 24 hours until the inner core of the circulation becomes more organized.  Beryl could intensify more rapidly when it approaches the Texas coast on Sunday.  Tropical Storm Beryl is very likely to intensify back to a hurricane.  There is a chance Beryl could intensify to a major hurricane by the end of the weekend.

 

 

Depression Strengthens to Tropical Storm Beryl

Former Tropical Depression Two strengthened to Tropical Storm Beryl on Friday evening.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Storm Beryl was located at latitude 9.3°N and longitude 43.6°W which put the center about 1110 miles (1785 km) east-southeast of Barbados. Beryl was moving toward the west at 18 m.p.h. (30 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1006 mb.

Former Tropical Depression Two strengthened on Friday evening and the U.S. National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Storm Beryl.  Thunderstorms just to the west of the center of Tropical Storm Beryl rose higher into the atmosphere.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Beryl’s circulation.  Storms near the center of circulation generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical storm.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to start to decrease.

Winds to tropical storm force extended out 45 miles (75 km) in the northern half of Tropical Storm Beryl.  The winds in the southern half of Beryl’s circulation were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Storm Beryl will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Beryl will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C.  It will move under the axis of an upper level ridge over the central tropical Atlantic Ocean.  The upper level winds are weak near the axis of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Storm Beryl will continue to intensify during the next 24 hours.  Beryl could strengthen to a hurricane during the weekend.

Tropical Storm Beryl will move around the southern side of a high pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Beryl toward the west during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Beryl will move toward the Lesser Antilles.

Tropical Storm Beryl could be a hurricane by the time it reaches the Lesser Antilles.  Tropical Storm and Hurricane Watches are likely to be issued for the Windward Islands on Saturday.

Chris Strengthens to a Hurricane Southeast of Cape Hatteras

Former Tropical Storm Chris strengthened to a hurricane southeast of Cape Hatteras on Tuesday.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Hurricane Chris was located at latitude 33.7°N and longitude 72.4°W which put it about 205 miles (330 km) east-southeast of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina.  Chris was moving toward the northeast at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 980 mb.

Hurricane Chris strengthened on Tuesday when it moved northeast of cooler water Chris had mixed to the surface while it was meandering off the coast of the Carolinas.  An eye with a diameter of 30 miles (50 km) formed at the center of circulation.  A ring of strong thunderstorms surrounded the eye and the strongest winds were occurring in the eastern side of that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Hurricane Chris.  The strongest rainbands were in the eastern half of the circulation.  Drier air near the western half of the circulation was contributing to the weaker bands in that part of the hurricane.  Storms in the core of the circulation were generating upper level divergence which was pumping mass away to the north and east of the hurricane.  Winds to hurricane force extended out about 20 miles (30 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 95 miles (155 km) from the center.

Hurricane Chris will move through an environment favorable for intensification on Wednesday.  Chris will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 28°C.  An upper level trough over the northeastern U.S. will produce southwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of the hurricane.  The winds speeds are similar at most levels and they will not generate a lot of vertical wind shear during the next 24 hours.  Hurricane Chris will strengthen on Wednesday and it could intensify rapidly.  Chris will move over cooler water when it gets north of the Gulf Stream and it will start to weaken when that occurs.

The trough over the northeastern U.S. will steer Hurricane Chris toward the northeast.  On its anticipated track Chris will move away from the coast of North Carolina.  Chris could be south of Nova Scotia in about 36 hours and it could be near Newfoundland in several days.

Elsewhere, the remnants of former Tropical Storm Beryl crossed Hispaniola and they were moving toward the southeastern Bahamas.  At 2:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Former Tropical Storm Chris was located at latitude 20.1°N and longitude 72.6°W which put it about 40 miles (65 km) northeast of Port de Paix, Haiti.  It was moving toward the northwest at 17 m.p.h. (28 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1013 mb.  A reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system on Wednesday if there are signs that it could be reorganizing into a tropical cyclone.

Tropical Storm Chris Develops South of Cape Hatteras, Beryl Nears Lesser Antilles

Tropical Storm Chris developed south of Cape Hatteras on Sunday morning, while Tropical Storm Beryl neared the Lesser Antilles.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Storm Chris was located at latitude 32.9°N and longitude 75.0°W which put it about 160 miles (260 km) south of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina.  Chris was nearly stationary.  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1006 mb.

Thunderstorms developed closer to the center of circulation on Sunday morning and the National Hurricane Center designated former Tropical Depression Three as Tropical Storm Chris.  The circulation of Chris was organizing quickly.  A band of showers and thunderstorms was wrapping around the center of circulation.  Several other rainbands were revolving around the core of the tropical storm.  The bands northwest of the center were weaker because there was drier air in that part of Chris.  The storms near the center of circulation were beginning to generate upper level divergence.

Tropical Storm Chris will remain in an environment favorable for intensification for the next two or three days.  The water in the upper portion of the Atlantic Ocean east of the Carolinas is warmer than normal.  Tropical Storm Chris will be over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 28°C.  Chris will be southeast of an upper level trough over the northeastern quarter of the U.S. and it will be under a small upper level ridge.  The upper level winds will be weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Storm Chris will continue to intensify and it could strengthen to a hurricane in the next day or two.

Since Tropical Storm Chris is under the small upper level ridge, the steering winds are weak.  Chris may not move much during the next 24 to 48 hours.  Tropical Storm Chris is forecast to linger of the coast of the Carolinas for several days.  Eventually an upper level trough will approach from the west and start to push Chris toward the northeast.

Elsewhere, Tropical Storm Beryl was nearing the Lesser Antilles on Sunday morning.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Storm Beryl was located at latitude 14.4°N and longitude 57.9°W which put it about 210 miles (335 km) east of Martinique.  Beryl was moving toward the west-northwest at 23 m.p.h. (37 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1007 mb.

Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for Dominica and Guadeloupe.  Tropical Storm Watches were in effect for Saba, St. Eustatius, St. Maarten, St. Martin, Martinique, St. Lucia, and St. Barthelemy.

Thunderstorms continued to develop near the center of Tropical Storm Beryl on Sunday morning and the weakening trend halted at least temporarily.  Beryl remained a small tropical storm.  Winds to tropical storm force only extended out about 45 miles (75 km) from the center of circulation.  There were several bands of showers and thunderstorms in the eastern half of Tropical Storm Beryl.  The bands in the western half of the circulation consisted primarily of showers and low clouds.

Tropical Storm Beryl is forecast to into a region where the easterly winds in the lower levels are stronger.  That would increase the vertical wind shear and make it difficult for the circulation to stay vertically coherent.  Beryl will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 27°C.  So, there will be enough energy in the upper ocean to support a tropical storm if the wind shear is not too strong.  Tropical Storm Beryl is forecast to weaken when it moves over the eastern Caribbean Sea, but that will depend on how strong the vertical shear gets.

Tropical Storm Beryl is moving south of the subtropical high over the Atlantic Ocean which is steering Beryl toward the west-northwest.  A general motion toward the west-northwest is forecast to continue for several more days.  On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Beryl will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to St. Lucia, Martinique, Dominica and Guadeloupe during the next few hours,

Tropical Storm Beryl Weakens East of the Lesser Antilles

Tropical Storm Beryl weakened on Saturday as it move closer to the Lesser Antilles.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of circulation was located at latitude 13.1°N and longitude 54.3°W which put it about 495 miles (795 km) east-southeast of the Lesser Antilles.  Beryl was moving toward the west-northwest at 18 m.p.h. (30 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1005 mb.

Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for Dominica and Guadeloupe.  Tropical Storm Watches were in effect for Saba, St. Eustatius, St. Maarten, Martinique, St. Martin, St. Barthelemy, Barbados and St. Lucia.

Tropical Storm Beryl moved into a region where the easterly winds in the lower level were stronger and the increased vertical wind shear started to blow the lower part of the circulation to the west of the upper part of Beryl.  It also seemed to move into an area of drier air, which caused most of the stronger thunderstorms to weaken.  There was still a well organized circulation in the lower levels, but it weakened on Saturday.  More thunderstorms developed near the center of circulation and on the eastern side of Tropical Storm Beryl in recent hours.  If those storms persist then Beryl could strengthen again, but if they dissipate quickly, then the tropical storm could weaken again on Sunday.

Tropical Storm Beryl will move through an environment that contains factors that are favorable for intensification and other factors that are unfavorable.  Beryl will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 27°C.  It will move through an area where the lower level winds are stronger and so there will be more vertical wind shear.  There will be areas of moister air within a larger area of drier air.  If the recently developed thunderstorms persist on Sunday, then the Beryl could strengthen again.  However, if the storms dissipate in a few hours, then Tropical Storm Beryl could weaken further.  The small size of the circulation means that rapid changes in intensity can occur.

Tropical Storm Beryl was moving south of the subtropical high over the Atlantic Ocean.  The high was steering Beryl toward the west-northwest and that general motion is forecast to continue for the next several days.  On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Beryl could reach the Lesser Antilles on Sunday night.  There is a lot of uncertainty about how strong Beryl may be when it reaches those islands.

Elsewhere over the Atlantic Ocean Tropical Depression Three spun south of Cape Hatteras.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Depression Three was located at latitude 32.9°N and longitude 75.1°W which put it about 160 miles (260 km) south of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina.  It was nearly stationary.  The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1014 mb.

TD 2 Quickly Strengthens Into Tropical Storm Beryl

Tropical Depression 2 which was designated earlier on Thursday quickly strengthened into Tropical Storm Beryl.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Storm Beryl was located at latitude 10.3°N and longitude 42.8°W which put it about 1295 miles (2080 km) east-southeast of the Lesser Antilles.  Beryl was moving toward the west at 16 m.p.h. (26 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1004 mb.

The circulation of very small Tropical Storm Beryl organized very quickly on Thursday afternoon.  There was evidence of a tiny eye on some microwave satellite images.  A small tight ring of thunderstorms surrounded the center of circulation and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Several short bands of thunderstorms were revolving around the core of the circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force only extended out 35 miles (55 km) from the center of circulation.  Storms near the core of Beryl were generating upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the tropical storm.

Tropical Storm Beryl will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next day or two.  Beryl will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 26.5°C.  There is cooler water north of the expected track of Beryl, which would limit intensification if the tropical storm wobbles toward the north.  An upper level ridge north of Tropical Storm Beryl will generate easterly winds which will blow toward the top of the circulation.  The wind speed is similar at all level and the vertical wind shear will be modest.  Small tropical cyclones can intensify or weaken rapidly.  Beryl is likely strengthen on Friday and it could intensify into a hurricane.

Tropical Storm Beryl was moving south of the subtropical high over the Atlantic Ocean.  The high was steering Beryl toward the west.  A general motion toward the west-northwest is forecast during the next two to three days.  On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Beryl could be east of the Lesser Antilles on Sunday.