Tag Archives: Galveston

Hurricane Beryl Brings Wind and Rain to East Texas

Hurricane Beryl brought wind and rain to east Texas on Monday morning.  Beryl weakened to a tropical storm late on Monday morning.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Storm Beryl was located at latitude 29.8°N and longitude 95.7°W which put the center about 20 miles (30 km) west-northwest of Houston, Texas.  Beryl was moving toward the north at 13 m.p.h. (20 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 70 m.p.h. (110 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 984 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Port O’Connor to Sabine Pass, Texas.

A Storm Surge Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Port O’Connor to Sabine Pass, Texas.

The center of Hurricane Beryl made landfall on the coast of Texas at Matagorda early on Monday morning.  Beryl was intensifying at the time of landfall.  The maximum sustained wind speed in Hurricane Beryl was 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h) at the time of landfall.  A circular eye with a diameter of 32 miles (52 km) was present at the center of Beryl’s circulation at the time of landfall.

The strongest winds in Hurricane Beryl were occurring in the eastern half of Beryl’s circulation.  At the time of landfall winds to hurricane force extended out 45 miles (75 km) in the eastern side of Beryl.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 115 miles (185 km) from the center of Hurricane Beryl.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Hurricane Beryl at the time of landfall was 11.5.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 10.3 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 21.8.  Hurricane Beryl was not quite as strong as Hurricane Dolly was when Dolly hit South Texas in 2008.  Beryl was a little smaller that Dolly was.

The eye of Hurricane Beryl passed directly over Matagorda, Texas.  A weather station at Matagorda, Texas (EMAT2) reported a sustained wind speed of 68 m.p.h. (110 km/h) when the northern part of the eyewall passed over the station.  The station also reported a wind gust of 86 m.p.h. (139 km/h).  The station reported a surface pressure of 980 mb when the eye of Hurricane Beryl was over it.

A weather station at Freeport, Texas (FPST2) reported a sustained wind speed of 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and a wind gust of 87 m.p.h. (141 km/h).

A weather station at the North Jetty Entrance to Galveston Bay (GNJT2) reported a sustained wind speed of 72 m.p.h. (117 km/h) and a wind gust of 82 m.p.h. (132 km/h).

After Hurricane Beryl made landfall on the coast of Texas, the center of Beryl’s circulation passed just to the west of Houston.  The eastern side of Beryl’s eyewall passed over Houston.  Beryl brought strong winds and heavy rain to the area around Houston.

A weather station at Houston Hobby Airport reported a sustained wind speed of 58 m.p.h. (94 km/h) and a wind gust of 84 m.p.h. 135 km/h).  The weather station also reported 4.15 inches (105 mm) of rain.

A weather station at Houston Intercontinental Airport reported a sustained wind speed of 59 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and a wind gust of 82 m.p.h. (132 km/h).  The station also reported 4.31 inches of rain.

The strong winds in Hurricane Beryl caused widespread electricity outages in east Texas.  There were reports of 2.5 million customers without electricity.

The strong winds in Hurricane Beryl caused a storm surge along the coast of Texas.  There were reports of water level rises of 5 feet (1.5 meters) at multiple locations along the coast.

Tropical Storm Beryl will move under the southeastern part of an upper level trough over the Central U.S.  The upper level trough will steer Beryl toward the north-northeast during the next 12 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Beryl will move over northeast Texas later today.  The upper level trough will steer Beryl toward the northeast on Tuesday.  Beryl will move over Arkansas on Tuesday morning.

Tropical Storm Beryl will continue to weaken gradually as it moves farther inland.  Beryl will continue to produce strong winds over east Texas during the next few hours.  Widespread minor wind damage is likely to occur.  There are also likely to be additional electricity outages.  Tropical Storm Beryl could drop up to 8 inches (200 mm) of rain on some locations.   Heavy rain is likely to cause flooding.  Flood Watches are in effect for parts of eastern Texas.  Flood Watches are also in effect for parts of southeastern Oklahoma, southwestern Arkansas and northwestern Louisiana.  Tropical Storm Beryl will continue to cause a storm surge of up to 5 feet (1.5 meters) along the coast until the wind speeds decrease when Beryl moves farther away.

 

Hurricane Beryl Makes Landfall in Texas

Hurricane Beryl made landfall on the coast of Texas at Matagorda early on Monday morning.  At 5:00 a.m. EDT on Monday the center of Hurricane Beryl was located at latitude 28.6°N and longitude 96.0°W which put the center at Matagorda, Texas.  Beryl was moving toward the north at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 979 mb.

A Hurricane Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Mesquite Bay to Port Bolivar, Texas.

A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Port Bolivar to Sabine Pass, Texas.

A Storm Surge Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Mesquite Bay to Sabine Pass, Texas.

The center of Hurricane Beryl made landfall on the coast of Texas at Matagorda early on Monday morning.  Beryl was intensifying at the time of landfall.  A circular eye with a diameter of 32 miles (52 km) was present at the center of Beryl’s circulation.  The eye of Hurricane Beryl passed directly over Matagorda Texas.  The eye was surrounded by a ring of strong thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Hurricane Beryl.

The strongest winds in Hurricane Beryl were occurring in the eastern half of Beryl’s circulation.  Winds to hurricane force extended out 45 miles (75 km) in the eastern side of Beryl.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 115 miles (185 km) from the center of Hurricane Beryl.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Hurricane Beryl was 11.5.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 10.3 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 21.8.  Hurricane Beryl was not quite as strong as Hurricane Dolly was when Dolly hit South Texas in 2008.  Beryl was a little smaller that Dolly was.

A weather station at Matagorda, Texas (EMAT2) reported a sustained wind speed of 68 m.p.h. (110 km/h) when the northern part of the eyewall passed over the station.  The station also reported a wind gust of 86 m.p.h. (139 km/h).  The station reported a surface pressure of 980 mb when the eye of Hurricane Beryl was over it.

A weather station at Freeport, Texas (FPST2) reported a sustained wind speed of 71 m.p.h. (115 km/h) and a wind gust of 86 m.p.h. (139 km/h).

Heavy rain was falling over parts of eastern Texas.  Heavy rain was falling in Houston and Galveston.

Hurricane Beryl will move around the western part of a high pressure system over the southeastern U.S.  The high pressure system will steer Beryl toward the north during the next 12 hours. Hurricane Beryl will start to move toward the northeast on Monday night.  On its anticipated track, the center of Hurricane Beryl will pass over Bay City, Texas.  The center of Beryl will pass just to the west of Houston in a few hours.

Hurricane Beryl will start to weaken gradually as the center of Beryl’s circulation moves farther inland.  Beryl will bring strong winds and heavy rain to parts of eastern Texas.  Hurricane Beryl will be capable of causing regional minor damage.  The strongest winds will be in the eastern side of Hurricane Beryl.  Beryl will bring strong winds to Galveston and Houston.  The strong winds are likely to cause electricity outages.

Hurricane Beryl could drop up to 10 inches (250 mm) of rain on some locations.   Heavy rain is likely to cause flooding.  Flood Watches are in effect for parts of eastern Texas.  Flood Watches are also in effect for parts of southeastern Oklahoma, southwestern Arkansas and northwestern Louisiana.  Hurricane Beryl could also cause a storm surge of up to 10 feet (3 meters) where the wind pushes water toward the coast.

 

Beryl Strengthens Back to a Hurricane

Former Tropical Storm Beryl strengthened back to a hurricane on Sunday night as it neared the coast of Texas.  At 12:00 a.m. EDT on Monday the center of Hurricane Beryl was located at latitude 27.7°N and longitude 95.7°W which put the center about 65 miles (105 km) south-southeast of Matagorda, Texas.   Beryl was moving toward the north-northwest at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h).   The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h).   The minimum surface pressure was 985 mb.

A Hurricane Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Mesquite Bay to Port Bolivar, Texas.

A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Mesquite Bay to Port Mansfield, Texas.  A Tropical Storm Warning was also in effect for the portion of the coast from Port Bolivar to Sabine Pass, Texas.

A Storm Surge Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Mesquite Bay to Sabine Pass, Texas.

Former Tropical Storm Beryl strengthened back to a hurricane as it neared the coast of Texas on Sunday night.  Beryl strengthened slowly but steadily on Sunday night.  The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the center of Beryl’s circulation.  A circular eye with a diameter of 45 miles (75 km) was at the center of Hurricane Beryl.  The eye was surrounded by a broken ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms revolved around the center of Hurricane Beryl.  Storms near the center of circulation generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the hurricane.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease slowly.

The circulation around Hurricane Beryl became more symmetrical on Sunday.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 115 miles (185 km) from the center of Beryl’s circulation.

Hurricane Beryl will move through an environment that will be favorable for intensification during the next few hours.  Beryl will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C.  It will move under an upper level ridge over the Gulf of Mexico.  The upper level winds are weak in the ridge and there will be be little vertical wind shear.  Hurricane Beryl will continue to intensify during the next few hours.  There could be a brief period of more rapid intensification if an inner core with an eye and and eyewall develops fully.

Hurricane Beryl will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system over the southeastern U.S.   The high pressure system will steer Beryl toward the north during the next 24 hours.   On its anticipated track, Hurricane Beryl will make landfall on the coast of Texas on Monday.  The center of Beryl’s circulation will make landfall between Matagorda and Galveston, Texas.

Hurricane Beryl will bring strong winds and heavy rain to parts of eastern Texas.  The strong winds are likely to cause power outages.  Beryl could bring strong winds to Galveston and Houston.  Up to 10 inches (250 mm) of rain could fall in some locations.  Heavy rain is likely to cause flooding.  Flood Watches are in effect for parts of eastern Texas.  Flood Watches are also in effect for parts of southeastern Oklahoma, southwestern Arkansas and northwestern Louisiana.  Hurricane Beryl could also cause a storm surge of up to 10 feet (3 meters) where the wind pushes water toward the coast.

 

 

 

Tropical Storm Alberto Forms over Western Gulf of Mexico

Tropical Storm Alberto formed over the western Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday morning.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Storm Alberto was located at latitude 22.2°N and longitude 95.0°W which put it about 185 miles (300 km) east of Tampico, Mexico and about 295 miles (480 km) south-southeast of Brownsville, Texas.  Alberto was moving toward the west at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h).   The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 995 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from San Luis Pass, Texas to Tecolutla, Mexico.  The Tropical Storm Warning included Corpus Christi and Brownsville, Texas.  The Tropical Storm Warning also included Tampico, Mexico.

More thunderstorms formed near the center of a low pressure system previously designated as Potential Tropical Cyclone One on Wednesday morning.  A U.S. Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter reconnaissance aircraft was able to locate a well defined low level center of circulation and the U.S. National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Storm Alberto.

The structure of Tropical Storm Alberto was beginning to resemble a typical tropical storm.  Thunderstorms were forming near the center of Alberto’s circulation.  A band of thunderstorms wrapped around the southern and eastern side of Tropical Storm Alberto.  Other bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Alberto’s circulation.  Storms near the center of Alberto began to generate upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical storm.  The removal of mass was causing the surface pressure to decrease.

Even though Tropical Storm Alberto was starting to look like a tropical storm, the distribution of winds was still asymmetrical.  The circulation around the northern side of Alberto’s circulation was interacting with the southern part of a strong high pressure system over the eastern U.S.  The interaction of the two pressure systems was causing the strongest winds to occur in the northern side of Tropical Storm Alberto.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 400 miles (645 km) north of the center of Alberto’s circulation.  An anemometer at Garden Banks 783 (KGBK) measured a sustained wind speed of 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and wind gusts of 50 m.p.h (80 km/h).  The anemometer is at a height of 58.2 meters above sea level.  The winds in the southern part of Alberto’s circulation were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Storm Alberto will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 12 hours. Alberto will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C.  It will move under the the center of an upper level ridge over the western Gulf of Mexico.  The upper level winds are weak near the center of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Storm Alberto will intensify during the next 12 hours.  Alberto could undergo a brief period of rapid intensification when it approaches the coast of Mexico.

Tropical Storm Alberto will move south of a strong high pressure system over the eastern U.S.  The high pressure system will steer Alberto toward the west during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Alberto will make landfall on the coast of northern Mexico on Wednesday night.  The center of Alberto will make landfall near Tampico, Mexico.

Tropical Storm Alberto will produce gusty winds along the coast of Texas and northern Mexico.   Alberto will also drop heavy rain on parts of northern Mexico and southern Texas.  Up to 12 inches (300 mm) of rain could fall on parts of south Texas.  Flood Watches were in effect for parts of South Central, Southeast and South Texas.  Up to 20 inches (500 mm) of rain could fall on parts of northern Mexico where the winds blow the air up the slopes of mountains.

Easterly winds blowing around the northern side of Tropical Storm Alberto will blow the water toward the coast of Texas and northern Mexico.  Alberto will cause a storm surge of up to six feet (two meters) where the winds blow the water toward the coast.  Tropical Storm Alberto was already causing some flooding along parts of the coast of Texas.  A tide station at San Luis Pass, Texas (LUIT2) was reporting a water level of 5.21 feet (1.59 meters).  That water level is associated with Major Flooding.  A tide station at Galveston Railroad Bridge (GRRT2)  was reporting a water level of 4.77 feet (1.45 meters).  That water level is associated with Major Flooding.

Tropical Storm Nicholas Brings Wind and Rain to Houston

Tropical Storm Nicholas brought wind and rain to Houston on Tuesday morning. At 8:00 a.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Storm Nicholas was located at latitude 29.5°N and longitude 95.5°W which put it about 15 miles (25 km) south-southwest of Houston, Texas. Nicholas was moving toward the north-northeast at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were’ wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 999 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from San Luis Pass, Texas to Cameron, Louisiana. The Tropical Storm Warning included Galveston and Port Arthur.

Tropical Storm Nicholas brought gusty winds and locally heavy rain to the area around Houston on Tuesday morning. Houston Intercontinental Airport was reporting a sustained wind speed of 33 m.p.h. (54 km/h) and a wind gust of 51 m.p.h. (82 km/h). The airport was reporting moderate rain. Moderate to heavy rain was also falling over southeast Texas and the southern half of Louisiana. A band of showers and thunderstorms extended from near Port Arthur, Texas southward over the Gulf of Mexico. Other bands of showers and thunderstorms were over southern Louisiana and southwestern Mississippi. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 125 miles (200 km) on the eastern side of Nicholas’ circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 60 miles on the western side of the circulation.

Tropical Storm Nicholas will move slowly toward the east-northeast during the next 36 hours. The circulation around Nicholas will weaken gradually. Tropical Storm Nicholas will continue to drop locally heavy rain over southeast Texas, southern Louisiana and southern Mississippi. Flash Flood Watches are in effect for those locations.

Nicholas Strengthens to a Hurricane near Texas Coast

Former Tropical Storm Nicholas strengthened to a hurricane near the Texas coast on Monday night. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Hurricane Nicholas was located at latitude 28.4°N and longitude 95.8°W which put it about 45 miles (75 km) southwest of Freeport, Texas. Nicholas was moving toward the north-northeast at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h) and there were’ wind gusts to 90 m.p.h. (145 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 988 mb.

A Hurricane Waring was in effect for the portion of the coast from Port O’Connor to Freeport, Texas. A Hurricane Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Freeport to San Luis Pass, Texas. Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for the portions of the coast from Port Aransas to Port O’Connor, Texas and from Freeport to Sabine Pass, Texas. The Tropical Storm Warning included Galveston.

Former Tropical Storm Nicholas strengthened to a hurricane on Monday night. An upper level ridge over the Gulf of Mexico enhanced upper level divergence to the northeast of Nicholas. The enhanced upper level divergence pumped away more mass and the surface pressure at the center of Nicholas decreased to 988 mb on Monday evening. The decreased pressure increased the pressure difference and a larger pressure gradient force caused the wind speed to gradually increase to hurricane force.

The circulation around Hurricane Nicholas was still asymmetrical. Drier air was wrapping around the southern side of Nicholas’ circulation and the precipitation was falling in the north half of the hurricane. The strongest winds were occurring in the eastern half of Hurricane Nicholas. Winds to hurricane force extended out 25 miles (40 km) in the northeastern quadrant of Nicholas. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 115 miles (185 km) on the eastern side of Hurricane Nicholas. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 45 miles on the western side of the hurricane.

Hurricane Nicholas will move around the western end of a high pressure system that extends over the Gulf of Mexico. The high pressure system will steer Nicholas toward the north-northeast during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track the center of Hurricane Nicholas could make landfall near Freeport, Texas in a few hours. Hurricane Nicholas will bring strong winds to the coast of Texas between Matagorda and Port Arthur. Scattered power outages are likely. Nicholas will drop heavy rain over parts of southeastern Texas and over Louisiana on Tuesday. Flash floods could occur in some locations. Southerly winds blowing on the east side of Hurricane Nicholas will push water toward the coast. Those winds could cause a storm surge of up to 7 feet (2 meters). The water level will rise along the coast of southwest Louisiana too.

Tropical Storm Nicholas Nears Texas Coast

Tropical Storm Nicholas neared the coast of Texas on Monday morning. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Storm Nicholas was located at latitude 26.4°N and longitude 96.8°W which put it about 140 miles (225 km) south of Port O’Connor, Texas. Nicholas was moving toward the north at 12 m.p.h. (19km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were’ wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1002 mb.

A Hurricane Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Port Aransas to San Luis Pass, Texas. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from the Mouth of the Rio Grande River to Sabine Pass, Texas. The Tropical Storm Warning included Corpus Christi and Galveston.

The center of Tropical Storm Nicholas reorganized several times on Monday. Each time a new center formed farther to the north-northeast. The new centers formed on the southern sides of clusters of stronger thunderstorms. The inner end of a rainband appeared to be wrapping around the northern side of the most recent center of circulation. Other bands of stronger thunderstorms were occurring north and east of the center of Nicholas. Bands to the south and west of the center consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. The strongest winds were occurring in the eastern half of Tropical Storm Nicholas. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 115 miles (185 km) on the eastern side of Nicholas. The winds in the western half of the circulation were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Storm Nicholas will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 12 hours. Nicholas will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30˚C. It will move between and upper level trough over northern Mexico and an upper level ridge over the Gulf of Mexico. The upper trough and ridge will produce southerly winds that will blow toward the top of Nicholas’ circulation. Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear, but the shear will not be strong enough to prevent intensification. The upper level low will move west and weaken during the next 12 hours. The upper level ridge will extend northwest over Tropical Storm Nicholas. When the ridge extends over Nicholas the upper level winds will weaken. When the upper level winds weaken, the vertical wind shear will decrease. Tropical Storm Nicholas will strengthen when that occurs. If a more well defined center develops and persists in the middle of Nicholas, the it could strengthen more quickly. There is a chance that Nicholas could intensify to a hurricane later on Monday.

Tropical Storm Nicholas will move around the western side of a high pressure system that extends over the Gulf of Mexico. The high will steer Nicholas toward the north during the next 12 hours. On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Nicholas will approach the central coast of Texas on Monday night. Nicholas will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to coastal areas of northeast Texas on Monday night. The strongest winds and the heaviest rain will occur before the center of Tropical Storm Nicholas makes landfall. The strongest winds will occur on the eastern side of Nicholas’ circulation. Scattered power outages could occur along the Upper Texas Coast and in southwestern Louisiana. Tropical Storm Nicholas could also cause a storm surge of up to 7 feet (2 meters) along portions of the coast. Nicholas will move toward the northeast on Tuesday. Locally heavy rain will fall over Louisiana. Flash floods could occur in some locations.

Tropical Storm Nicholas Prompts Hurricane Watch for Texas

A potential threat posed by Tropical Storm Nicholas prompted the issuance of a Hurricane Watch for a portion of the Texas coast on Sunday. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Storm Nicholas was located at latitude 22.5°N and longitude 95.5°W which put it about 260 miles (415 km) south-southeast of the Mouth of the Rio Grande River. Nicholas was moving toward the north at 2 m.p.h. (3 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were’ wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1007 mb.

A Hurricane Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Port Aransas to Freeport, Texas. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Barra el Mezquital, Mexico to High Island Texas. The Tropical Storm Warning included Corpus Christi and Galveston. A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from High Island to Sabine Pass, Texas.

The circulation around Tropical Storm Nicholas was poorly organized. There was a broad center of circulation in the middle of Nicholas. Several smaller cyclonic circulations were revolving around inside the broad center. Many of the thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the northern half of Tropical Storm Nicholas. Bands in the southern half of Nicholas consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 115 miles (185 km) in the northeastern quadrant of Tropical Storm Nicholas. The winds in the other parts of Nicholas’ circulation were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Storm Nicholas will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Nicholas will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30˚C. It will move between and upper level low over northern Mexico and an upper level ridge over the northwestern Caribbean Sea. The upper low and ridge will produce southerly winds that will blow toward the top of Nicholas’ circulation. Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear, but the shear will not be strong enough to prevent intensification. The upper level low will move west and weaken on Monday. The upper level ridge will extend west over Tropical Storm Nicholas. When the ridge extends over Nicholas the upper level winds will weaken. When the upper level winds weaken, the vertical wind shear will decrease. Tropical Storm Nicholas will strengthen when that occurs. If a more well defined center develops in the middle of Nicholas, the it could strengthen more quickly. There is a chance that Nicholas could intensify to a hurricane later on Monday.

Tropical Storm Nicholas will move around the western side of a high pressure system that extends over the Gulf of Mexico. The high will steer Nicholas toward the north-northwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Nicholas will approach the coast near the Mouth of the Rio Grande River on Monday. Nicholas will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to coastal areas of northern Mexico and east Texas on Monday. Tropical Storm Nicholas could also cause a storm surge of up to 7 feet (2 meters) along portions of the coast. It is possible that a new center of circulation could develop closer to the thunderstorms in the northern half of Tropical Storm Nicholas. If a new center develops farther to the north, that could increase the threat to northeastern Texas and western Louisiana.

Tropical Storm Nicholas Forms over Southwest Gulf of Mexico

Tropical Storm Nicholas formed over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico on Sunday morning. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Storm Nicholas was located at latitude 20.5°N and longitude 94.8°W which put it about 405 miles (645 km) south-southeast of the Mouth of the Rio Grande River. Nicholas was moving toward the north-northwest at 13 m.p.h. (20 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were’ wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1008 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning was issued for the portion of the coast from Barra el Mezquital, Mexico to Port Aransas, Texas. A Tropical Storm Watch was issued for the portion of the coast from Port Aransas to High Island, Texas.

An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter reconnaissance plane found sustained winds of tropical storm force in a low pressure system over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico on Sunday morning and the National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Storm Nicholas. The circulation around Tropical Storm Nicholas was still organizing. Thunderstorms began to form near the center of Nicholas. Thunderstorms were also developing in bands revolving around the center of circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 100 miles (160 km) in the northeastern quadrant of Tropical Storm Nicholas. The winds in the other parts of the circulation were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Storm Nicholas will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Nicholas will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30˚C. It will move between and upper level low over northern Mexico and an upper level ridge over the northwestern Caribbean Sea. The upper low and ridge will produce south-southwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Nicholas’ circulation. Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear, but the shear will not be strong enough to prevent intensification. The upper level winds are forecast to weaken on Monday and Tropical Storm Nicholas could strengthen more quickly when that occurs. There is a chance that Nicholas could intensify to a hurricane on Monday.

Tropical Storm Nicholas will move around the western side of a high pressure system that extends over the Gulf of Mexico. The high will steer Nicholas toward the north-northwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Nicholas will approach the coast near the Mouth of the Rio Grande River on Monday. Nicholas will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to coastal areas of northern Mexico and southern Texas on Monday. Tropical Storm Nicholas could also cause a storm surge of up to 7 feet (2 meters) along portions of the coast.

Hurricane Laura Rapidly Intensifies into a Major Hurricane

Hurricane Laura rapidly intensified into a major hurricane during the overnight hours.  At 8:00 a.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Hurricane Laura was located at latitude 26.4°N and longitude 91.4°W which put it about 280 miles (450 km) south-southeast of Lake Charles, Louisiana.  Laura was moving toward the northwest at 15 m.p.h. (24 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 115 m.p.h. (185 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 140 m.p.h. (225 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 963 mb.

A Hurricane Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from San Luis, Pass, Texas to Intracoastal City, Lousiana.  Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for the portions of the coast from Sargent, Texas to San Luis Pass and from Intracoastal City to the Mouth of the Mississippi River.

Hurricane Laura strengthened rapidly over the warm water in the Central Gulf of Mexico during the overnight hours.  An eye with a diameter of 30 miles (50 km) formed at the center of Laura.  A ring of strong thunderstorms surrounded the eye and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Hurricane Laura.   Storms near the core were generating strong upper level divergence which was pumping large quantities of mass away from the hurricane in all directions.  The removal of mass allowed the surface pressure to decrease quickly, which caused Laura to rapidly intensify.

The size of the circulation around Hurricane Laura also increased during the overnight hours.  Winds to hurricane force extended out 70 miles (110 km) from the center of circulation).  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 175 miles (280 km) from the center.  The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Hurricane Laura was 20.6.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 19.1 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 39.7.  Hurricane Laura was capable of causing widespread major damage.

Hurricane Laura will continue to move through an environment favorable for intensification today.  Laura will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will little vertical wind shear.  Hurricane Laura could strengthen to Category 4 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale.  When Hurricane Laura approaches the coast it will get closer to an upper level trough over Texas and Oklahoma.  The trough will produce southwesterly winds which will blow toward the top of Laura.  Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear and Hurricane Laura could start to weaken just before it makes landfall.

Hurricane Laura will move around the western end of a subtropical high pressure system that extends from the Atlantic Ocean over the Gulf of Mexico.  Laura will move toward the north-northwest as it approaches the western end of the high.  On its anticipated track Hurricane Laura will make landfall near the border between Louisiana and Texas tonight.

Hurricane Laura will be capable of causing major damage over western Louisiana and eastern Texas.  Strong winds could cause widespread power outages.  Wind blowing water toward the coast will cause a storm surge of 10 to 15 feet (3 to 5 meters) near and to the east of where the center makes landfall.  Laura will drop locally heavy rain when it moves inland and flash floods could occur in some locations.

The wind speed in Hurricane Laura will be similar to the winds in Hurricane Harvey when Harvery made landfall on the coast of Texas in 2017.  Laura will be bigger than Harvey was.  The winds in Hurricane Laura could be stronger than the winds were in Hurricane Rita when Rita hit the same area in 2005.  However, Rita had intensified to Category 5 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale, but it was weakening when it made landfall.  Laura will not be as big as Rita was in 2005.