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Tropical Storm Francine Churns over Western Gulf of Mexico

Tropical Storm Francine was churning over the western Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday morning.  At 8:00 a.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Storm Francine located at latitude 24.5°N and longitude 94.9°W which put the center about 395 miles (640 km) south-southwest of Cameron, Louisiana.  Francine was moving toward the north at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 990 mb.

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Sabine Pass to Grand Isle. Louisiana.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Grand Isle, Louisiana to the Mouth of the Pearl River.  The Tropical Storm Warning includes New Orleans.  The Tropical Storm Warning also includes Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas.  A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from High Island, Texas to Sabine Pass, Louisiana.  A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Port Mansfield, Texas to the Mouth of the Rio Grande River.  A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from La Pesca, Mexico to the Mouth of the Rio Grande River.

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from High Island to Port Mansfield, Texas.  A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from Barra del Tordo to La Pesca, Mexico.

Rainbands in the western side of Tropical Storm Francine were dropping heavy rain on parts of south Texas.  A Flash Flood Warning is in effect for the area around Brownsville, Texas.

The circulation around Tropical Storm Francine showed signs of developing an inner core on Tuesday morning.  The inner end of a rainband wrapped most of the way around the center of Francines’s circulation.  An eye with a diameter of 25 miles (40 km) appeared to be forming at the center of Tropical Storm Francine.  The eye was surrounded by a nearly complete ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the northeastern part of Francine’s circulation.  Thunderstorms were also occurring in bands in the western side of Tropical Storm Francine.

The size of the circulation around Tropical Storm Francine contracted a little as it began to resemble a typical tropical cyclone.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 140 miles (220 km) from the center of Francine’s circulation.

Tropical Storm Francine will move through an environment very favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Francine will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C.  It will move under the middle of an upper level ridge over the western Gulf of Mexico.  The upper level winds are weak near the middle of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Storm Francine will intensify to a hurricane during the next 24 hours.  Francine could intensify rapidly after the inner core is fully formed.

Tropical Storm Francine will move around the western part of a high pressure system that extends from the western Atlantic Ocean to the Gulf of Mexico.  The high pressure system will steer Francine toward the northeast during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Francine will move toward Louisiana.  Francine will move faster toward the northeast on Wednesday when an upper level trough over the south central U.S. also begins to steer it toward the coast.  Tropical Storm Francine will approach the coast of Louisiana on Wednesday afternoon.  Francine will be a hurricane when it approaches the coast of Louisiana.

Tropical Storm Francine will bring strong winds and heavy rain to Louisiana.  Francine will be capable of causing serious damage.  Widespread outages of electricity are likely.  Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods.

Flood Watches are in effect for parts of Louisiana.

Tropical Storm Francine could cause a storm surge of up to 10 feet (3 meters) along parts of the coast of Louisiana.

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from High Island, Texas to the Mouth of the Mississippi River.  The Storm Surge Warning includes Vermilion Bay.

 

 

Tropical Storm Francine Prompts Hurricane Watch for Louisiana

The risk posed by Tropical Storm Francine prompted the issuance of a Hurricane Watch for a portion of the coast of Louisiana on Monday morning.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Storm Francine located at latitude 23.0°N and longitude 94.9°W which put the center about 480 miles (770 km) south-southwest of Cameron, Louisiana.  Francine was moving toward the north-northwest at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1002 mb.

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from Cameron to Grand Isle, Louisiana.

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from Grand Isle, Louisiana to the Mississippi/Alabama border.  The Tropical Storm Watch includes New Orleans.  The Tropical Storm Watch also includes Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas.  A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from High Island, Texas to Cameron, Louisiana.  A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from Port Mansfield, Texas to the Mouth of the Rio Grande River.  A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from Barra del Tordo, Mexico to the Mouth of the Rio Grande River.

A U.S. Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter plane investigated a low pressure system over the western Gulf of Mexico previously designated as Potential Tropical Cyclone Six on Monday morning.  The crew of the aircraft found that the circulation around the low pressure system was more organized.  Based on the data from the aircraft, the U.S. National Hurricane Center determined that former Potential Tropical Cyclone Six had developed the characteristics of a tropical storm.  The National Hurricane Center designated former Potential Tropical Cyclone Six as Tropical Storm Francine.

A distinct low level center of circulation formed at the center of Tropical Storm Francine.  Thunderstorms had formed near the center of Francine’s circulation.  More thunderstorms also developed in bands revolving around the center of Tropical Storm Francine.  Storms near the center of Francine generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical storm.

The circulation around Tropical Storm Francine was more symmetrical on Monday morning.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 160 miles (260 km) from the center of Francine’s circulation.

Tropical Storm Francine will move through an environment very favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Francine will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C.  It will move under the middle of an upper level ridge over the western Gulf of Mexico.  The upper level winds are weak near the middle of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Storm Francine is likely to intensify gradually during the next few hours while an inner core develops.  Francine could intensify rapidly on Tuesday after an inner core forms.  Tropical Storm Francine is likely to strengthen to a hurricane on Tuesday.

Tropical Storm Francine will move around the western part of a high pressure system that extends from the western Atlantic Ocean to the Gulf of Mexico.  The high pressure system will steer Francine toward the north during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Francine will move toward Louisiana.  Francine will move more toward the northeast on Wednesday when an upper level trough over the south central U.S. begins to steer it toward the coast.  Tropical Storm Francine will approach the coast of Louisiana on Wednesday afternoon.  Francine is likely to be a hurricane when it approaches the coast of Louisiana.

Tropical Storm Francine will bring strong winds and heavy rain to Louisiana.  Francine will be capable of causing serious damage.  Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods.

Flood Watches are in effect for parts of Louisiana.

Tropical Storm Francine could cause a storm surge of up to 10 feet (3 meters) along parts of the coast of Louisiana.

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from High Island, Texas to the Mouth of the Pearl River.  The Storm Surge Watch includes, Vermillion Bay, Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas.

 

Tropical Storm Beryl Churns Toward Texas

Tropical Storm Beryl churned toward the coast of Texas on Saturday.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Storm Beryl was located at latitude 24.7°N and longitude 94.0°W which put the center about 300 miles (485 km) southeast of Corpus Christi, Texas.  Beryl was moving toward the northwest at 13 m.p.h. (20 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 993 mb.

A Hurricane Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Baffin Bay to Sargent, Texas.

Hurricane Watches were in effect from the portions of the coast from Baffin Bay, Texas to the Mouth of the Rio Grande River and from Sargent to San Luis Pass, Texas.

A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Baffin Bay, Texas to the Mouth of the Rio Grande River.  A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Sargent to High Island, Texas.  A Tropical Storm Warning was also in effect for the portion of the coast from the Mouth of the Rio Grande River to Barra el Mezquital, Mexico.

A Storm Surge Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from the north end of Padre Island to High Island, Texas.

Storm Surge Watches were in effect for the portion of the coast from the Mouth of the Rio Grande River to the north end of Padre Island, Texas and from High Island to Sabine Pass, Texas.

The structure of Tropical Storm Beryl did not change a lot on Saturday.  The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the western side of the center of Beryl’s circulation.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms revolved around the center to Tropical Storm Beryl.  Storms near the center of circulation generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical storm.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease slowly.

The size of the circulation around Tropical Storm Beryl also did not change much on Saturday.   Winds to tropical storm force extended out 125 miles (200 km) in the northern half of Beryl’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force only extended out 45 miles in the southern half of Tropical Storm Beryl.

Tropical Storm Beryl will move into an environment that will become more favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours . Beryl will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C.  It will move under the northern part of an upper level low over the western Gulf of Mexico.  The upper level low will produce southeasterly winds that will blow toward the top of Beryl’s circulation.  The winds in the lower levels of the atmosphere will also blow from the southeast.  Since the winds in the upper and lower levels will blow from the southeast, there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Storm Beryl will intensify during the next 24 hours.  Beryl is likely to strengthen to a hurricane.  Beryl could intensify rapidly if an inner core with an eye and and eyewall develops.  There is a chance Beryl could intensify to a major hurricane before it reaches the coast.

Tropical Storm Beryl will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system over the southeastern U.S.  The high pressure system will steer Beryl toward the northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Beryl will approach the coast of Texas on Sunday night.

Tropical Storm Beryl is likely to be a hurricane when it reaches the coast of Texas.  Beryl will bring strong winds and heavy rain to parts of eastern Texas.  Up to 10 inches (250 mm) of rain could fall in some locations.  Heavy rain is likely to cause flooding.  Flood Watches were in effect for parts of eastern Texas.  Tropical Storm Beryl could also cause a storm surge of up to 10 feet (3 meters) where the wind pushes water toward the coast.

Tropical Storm Beryl Moves Toward Texas

Tropical Storm Beryl moved toward Texas on Saturday morning.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Tropical Storm Beryl was located at latitude 23.0°N and longitude 92.3°W which put the center about 460 miles (740 km) southeast of Corpus Christi, Texas.  Beryl was moving toward the west-northwest at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 997 mb.

A Hurricane Watch was in effect from the portion of the coast from the Mouth of the Rio Grande River to San Luis Pass, Texas.  The Hurricane Watch included Corpus Christi.

A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Baffin Bay, Texas to the Mouth of the Rio Grande River.  A Tropical Storm Warning was also in effect for the portion of the coast from the Mouth of the Rio Grande River to Barra el Mezquital, Mexico.

A Storm Surge Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from the Mouth of the Rio Grande River to High Island, Texas.

Tropical Storm Beryl exhibited more organization on Saturday morning.  More thunderstorms formed near the center of Beryl’s circulation.  The inner end of a band of thunderstorms wrapped around the center of circulation.  Storms near the center generated more upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical storm.  The removal of more mass caused the surface pressure to start to decrease again.  More thunderstorms were also forming in bands revolving around the center of Beryl’s circulation.

The winds at the surface were just starting to be affected by the new thunderstorms in Tropical Storm Beryl.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 125 miles (200 km) in the northern half of Beryl’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force only extended out 45 miles in the southern half of Tropical Storm Beryl.

Beryl will move into an environment that will become more favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Beryl will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move under the northeastern part of an upper level low over the western Gulf of Mexico.  The upper level low will produce southeasterly winds that will blow toward the top of Beryl’s circulation.  Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear, but the wind shear is likely to decrease by Sunday.  The wind shear will inhibit intensification, but the shear will not be enough to prevent strengthening.  Tropical Storm Beryl will intensify during the next 24 hours.  Beryl is likely to strengthen to a hurricane.  Beryl could intensify more rapidly when it approaches the Texas coast on Sunday.  There is a chance Beryl could intensify to a major hurricane by the end of the weekend.

Tropical Storm Beryl will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system over the southeastern U.S.  The high pressure system will steer Beryl toward the northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Beryl will continue to move toward the coast of Texas.  Beryl could approach the coast of Texas on Sunday night.

Tropical Storm Nicholas Prompts Hurricane Watch for Texas

A potential threat posed by Tropical Storm Nicholas prompted the issuance of a Hurricane Watch for a portion of the Texas coast on Sunday. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Storm Nicholas was located at latitude 22.5°N and longitude 95.5°W which put it about 260 miles (415 km) south-southeast of the Mouth of the Rio Grande River. Nicholas was moving toward the north at 2 m.p.h. (3 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were’ wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1007 mb.

A Hurricane Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Port Aransas to Freeport, Texas. A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Barra el Mezquital, Mexico to High Island Texas. The Tropical Storm Warning included Corpus Christi and Galveston. A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from High Island to Sabine Pass, Texas.

The circulation around Tropical Storm Nicholas was poorly organized. There was a broad center of circulation in the middle of Nicholas. Several smaller cyclonic circulations were revolving around inside the broad center. Many of the thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the northern half of Tropical Storm Nicholas. Bands in the southern half of Nicholas consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 115 miles (185 km) in the northeastern quadrant of Tropical Storm Nicholas. The winds in the other parts of Nicholas’ circulation were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Storm Nicholas will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Nicholas will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30˚C. It will move between and upper level low over northern Mexico and an upper level ridge over the northwestern Caribbean Sea. The upper low and ridge will produce southerly winds that will blow toward the top of Nicholas’ circulation. Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear, but the shear will not be strong enough to prevent intensification. The upper level low will move west and weaken on Monday. The upper level ridge will extend west over Tropical Storm Nicholas. When the ridge extends over Nicholas the upper level winds will weaken. When the upper level winds weaken, the vertical wind shear will decrease. Tropical Storm Nicholas will strengthen when that occurs. If a more well defined center develops in the middle of Nicholas, the it could strengthen more quickly. There is a chance that Nicholas could intensify to a hurricane later on Monday.

Tropical Storm Nicholas will move around the western side of a high pressure system that extends over the Gulf of Mexico. The high will steer Nicholas toward the north-northwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Nicholas will approach the coast near the Mouth of the Rio Grande River on Monday. Nicholas will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to coastal areas of northern Mexico and east Texas on Monday. Tropical Storm Nicholas could also cause a storm surge of up to 7 feet (2 meters) along portions of the coast. It is possible that a new center of circulation could develop closer to the thunderstorms in the northern half of Tropical Storm Nicholas. If a new center develops farther to the north, that could increase the threat to northeastern Texas and western Louisiana.

Tropical Storm Beta Strengthens, Hurricane Watch Issued for Texas

Tropical Storm Beta strengthened on Friday night and a Hurricane Watch was issued for a portion of the Texas coast.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Storm Beta was located at latitude 25.2°N and longitude 92.3°W which put it about 305 miles (495 km) east of the Mouth of the Rio Grande River.  Beta was moving toward the north-northeast at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 996 mb.

A Hurricane Watch was issued for the portion of the coast from Port Aransas to High Island, Texas.  Tropical Storm Watches were issued for the portions of the coast from the Mouth of the Rio Grande River to Port Aransas, Texas and from High Island, Texas to Morgan City, Louisiana.

Although Tropical Storm Beta looked like a highly sheared tropical cyclone on infrared satellite images, a reconnaissance plane found on Friday night that it had strengthened.  Even though the wind speeds were stronger and the surface pressure had decreased, the circulation was still asymmetrical.  An upper level trough over Texas was producing south-southwesterly winds which were blowing toward the top of Beta.  Those winds were causing moderate vertical wind shear.  Because of the wind shear, the stronger thunderstorms were occurring in bands on the northern side of Tropical Storm Beta.  Bands in the southern half of the tropical storm consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 175 miles (280 km) in the northeastern quadrant of Beta.  Tropical storm force winds extended out 100 miles (160 km) in the northwestern quadrant and out only 50 miles (80 km) in the southern half of the circulation.  The pressure difference between a large high pressure system over the eastern U.S. and the low pressure at the center of Beta was contributing to the strong winds on the northeastern side of the tropical storm.

Tropical Storm Beta will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next several days.  Beta will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  The upper level trough over Texas will weaken and gradually move away from Tropical Storm Beta.  When the trough moves away from Beta, the wind shear will decrease and Beta will be able to intensify more easily.  Tropical Storm Beta could intensify into a hurricane in during the weekend.

The steering pattern around Tropical Storm Beta will be complex.  The upper level trough over Texas is likely to steer Beta toward the north during the next 12 to 18 hours.  Then a large cool high pressure system over the eastern U.S. will block Tropical Storm Beta from moving any farther to the north.  The high will steer Beta to the west.  On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Beta could approach the coast of Texas by the end of the weekend.  Beta could move more toward the northeast when the high pressure system starts to shift toward the east early next week.

Elsewhere, Hurricane Teddy continued to move toward Bermuda.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Hurricane Teddy was located at latitude 24.0°N and longitude 57.4°W which put it about 730 miles (1170 km) southeast of Bermuda.  Teddy was moving toward the northwest at 13 m.p.h. (20 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 130 m.p.h. (210 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 150 m.p.h. (240 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 951 mb.

A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for Bermuda.