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Tropical Storm Alberto Brings Wind and Rain to Northern Mexico

Tropical Storm Alberto brought wind and rain to northern Mexico on Thursday morning.  At 8:00 a.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Storm Alberto was located at latitude 22.3°N and longitude 98.3°W which put it about 25 miles (40 km) west of Tampico, Mexico and about 255 miles (410 km) south of Brownsville, Texas.  Alberto was moving toward the west at 13 m.p.h. (20 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 997 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from the Mouth of the Rio Grande River to Tecolutla, Mexico.  The Tropical Storm Warning included Tampico, Mexico.

The center of Tropical Storm Alberto made landfall on the coast of Mexico near Tampico on Thursday morning.  The strongest winds were occurring near the center of Alberto’s circulation.  The distribution of winds in Tropical Storm Alberto was still asymmetrical at the time of landfall.  The circulation around the northern side of Alberto’s circulation was interacting with the southern part of a strong high pressure system over the eastern U.S.  The interaction of the two pressure systems was causing a large area of tropical storm force winds in the northern side of Tropical Storm Alberto.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 275 miles (445 km) in the northern side of Alberto’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 70 miles (110 km) in the southern half of Alberto.

Tropical Storm Alberto will move around the southern side of a strong high pressure system over the eastern U.S.  The high pressure system will steer Alberto toward the west during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Alberto will move steadily inland over northern Mexico.

Tropical Storm Alberto will weaken as it moves farther inland over northern Mexico.  Alberto will continue to produce gusty winds along the coast of Texas and northern Mexico during the next few hours.  Tropical Storm Alberto will also drop heavy rain on parts of northern Mexico and southern Texas.   Up to an additional 5 inches (125 mm) of rain could fall on parts of south Texas.  Flood Watches are in effect for parts of South Texas.  Up to an additional 16 inches (400 mm) of rain could fall on parts of northern Mexico where the winds blow the air up the slopes of mountains.  Heavy rain is likely to cause flash floods in some locations.  The heaviest rain is likely to fall in Tamaulipas.

Tropical Storm Alberto Strengthens Near Mexico

Tropical Storm Alberto strengthened on Wednesday evening as it neared the coast of Mexico.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Storm Alberto was located at latitude 21.5°N and longitude 95.9°W which put it about 135 miles (220 km) east-southeast of Tampico, Mexico and about 320 miles (510 km) south-southeast of Brownsville, Texas.  Alberto was moving toward the west at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 993 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from San Luis Pass, Texas to Tecolutla, Mexico.  The Tropical Storm Warning included Port O’Connor, Corpus Christi and Brownsville, Texas.  The Tropical Storm Warning also included Tampico, Mexico.

Tropical Storm Alberto was getting stronger on Wednesday evening as it approached the coast of Mexico near Tampico.  Thunderstorms near the center of Alberto’s circulation rose higher into the atmosphere.  A band of thunderstorms wrapped around the southern and eastern side of the center of circulation.  Other bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Tropical Storm Alberto.  Storms near the center of Alberto generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical storm.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The distribution of winds in Tropical Storm Alberto was still asymmetrical.  The circulation around the northern side of Alberto’s circulation was interacting with the southern part of a strong high pressure system over the eastern U.S.  The interaction of the two pressure systems was causing a large area of tropical storm force winds in the northern side of Tropical Storm Alberto.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 460 miles (740 km) in the northern side of Alberto’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force only extended out 60 miles (95 km) in the southern half of Alberto.

Tropical Storm Alberto will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next few hours.  Alberto will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C.  It will move under the the center of an upper level ridge over the western Gulf of Mexico.  The upper level winds are weak near the center of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Storm Alberto is likely to intensify during the next few hours until the center makes landfall on the coast of Mexico.

Tropical Storm Alberto will move around the southern side of a strong high pressure system over the eastern U.S.  The high pressure system will steer Alberto toward the west during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Alberto will make landfall on the coast of northern Mexico early on Thursday.  The center of Alberto will make landfall a little south of Tampico, Mexico.

Tropical Storm Alberto will produce gusty winds along the coast of Texas and northern Mexico.    Alberto will also drop heavy rain on parts of northern Mexico and southern Texas.  Up to 12 inches (300 mm) of rain could fall on parts of south Texas.  Flood Watches were in effect for parts of South Texas.  Up to 20 inches (500 mm) of rain could fall on parts of northern Mexico where the winds blow the air up the slopes of mountains.

Easterly winds blowing around the northern side of Tropical Storm Alberto will blow the water toward the coast of Texas and northern Mexico.  Alberto will cause a storm surge of up to six feet (two meters) where the winds blow the water toward the coast.  Tropical Storm Alberto caused flooding along parts of the coast of Texas and Louisiana on Wednesday.  There were reports of water over roads as far east as Grand Isle, Louisiana.

 

Tropical Storm Alberto Forms over Western Gulf of Mexico

Tropical Storm Alberto formed over the western Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday morning.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Storm Alberto was located at latitude 22.2°N and longitude 95.0°W which put it about 185 miles (300 km) east of Tampico, Mexico and about 295 miles (480 km) south-southeast of Brownsville, Texas.  Alberto was moving toward the west at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h).   The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 995 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from San Luis Pass, Texas to Tecolutla, Mexico.  The Tropical Storm Warning included Corpus Christi and Brownsville, Texas.  The Tropical Storm Warning also included Tampico, Mexico.

More thunderstorms formed near the center of a low pressure system previously designated as Potential Tropical Cyclone One on Wednesday morning.  A U.S. Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter reconnaissance aircraft was able to locate a well defined low level center of circulation and the U.S. National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Storm Alberto.

The structure of Tropical Storm Alberto was beginning to resemble a typical tropical storm.  Thunderstorms were forming near the center of Alberto’s circulation.  A band of thunderstorms wrapped around the southern and eastern side of Tropical Storm Alberto.  Other bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Alberto’s circulation.  Storms near the center of Alberto began to generate upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical storm.  The removal of mass was causing the surface pressure to decrease.

Even though Tropical Storm Alberto was starting to look like a tropical storm, the distribution of winds was still asymmetrical.  The circulation around the northern side of Alberto’s circulation was interacting with the southern part of a strong high pressure system over the eastern U.S.  The interaction of the two pressure systems was causing the strongest winds to occur in the northern side of Tropical Storm Alberto.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 400 miles (645 km) north of the center of Alberto’s circulation.  An anemometer at Garden Banks 783 (KGBK) measured a sustained wind speed of 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and wind gusts of 50 m.p.h (80 km/h).  The anemometer is at a height of 58.2 meters above sea level.  The winds in the southern part of Alberto’s circulation were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Storm Alberto will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 12 hours. Alberto will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C.  It will move under the the center of an upper level ridge over the western Gulf of Mexico.  The upper level winds are weak near the center of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Storm Alberto will intensify during the next 12 hours.  Alberto could undergo a brief period of rapid intensification when it approaches the coast of Mexico.

Tropical Storm Alberto will move south of a strong high pressure system over the eastern U.S.  The high pressure system will steer Alberto toward the west during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Alberto will make landfall on the coast of northern Mexico on Wednesday night.  The center of Alberto will make landfall near Tampico, Mexico.

Tropical Storm Alberto will produce gusty winds along the coast of Texas and northern Mexico.   Alberto will also drop heavy rain on parts of northern Mexico and southern Texas.  Up to 12 inches (300 mm) of rain could fall on parts of south Texas.  Flood Watches were in effect for parts of South Central, Southeast and South Texas.  Up to 20 inches (500 mm) of rain could fall on parts of northern Mexico where the winds blow the air up the slopes of mountains.

Easterly winds blowing around the northern side of Tropical Storm Alberto will blow the water toward the coast of Texas and northern Mexico.  Alberto will cause a storm surge of up to six feet (two meters) where the winds blow the water toward the coast.  Tropical Storm Alberto was already causing some flooding along parts of the coast of Texas.  A tide station at San Luis Pass, Texas (LUIT2) was reporting a water level of 5.21 feet (1.59 meters).  That water level is associated with Major Flooding.  A tide station at Galveston Railroad Bridge (GRRT2)  was reporting a water level of 4.77 feet (1.45 meters).  That water level is associated with Major Flooding.

Tropical Depression Alberto Drops Heavy Rain Over Southeast U.S.

Tropical Depression Alberto dropped heavy rain over portions of the southeastern U.S. on Tuesday.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Monday the center of Tropical Depression Alberto was located at latitude 36.3°N and longitude 87.5°W which put it about 45 miles (75 km) west-northwest of Nashville, Tennessee.  Alberto was moving toward the north at 16 m.p.h. (26 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 999 mb.

The core of Tropical Depression Alberto moved northward across Alabama and into Tennessee on Tuesday.  The circulation remained well developed and there was a band of showers and thunderstorms that surrounded most of the center.  Upper air data from Nashville, Tennessee indicated that the system might have a warm core and the Weather Prediction Center called it a Tropical Depression in the 11:00 p.m. EDT advisory.  A large counterclockwise circulation extended all the way to eastern North Carolina.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were rotating northward in the eastern half of the circulation.

Those bands of showers and thunderstorms were dropping heavy rain as they passed over some locations.  A weather station in Asheville , North Carolina received nearly two inches of rain on Tuesday.  Heavier rain likely fell over parts of the Appalachians where the wind forced the air to rise up the mountains.  There were reports of flooding in several locations and Flash Flood Warnings were in effect for a number of counties in western North Carolina.  The National Weather Service Forecast Office in Greenville-Spartanburg, South Carolina issued a Flash Flood Emergency for areas downstream of the Lake Tahoma Dam in central McDowell County, North Carolina due to imminent failure of the dam.  Flash Flood Watches remained in effect from Georgia to Virginia and westward to the Lower Ohio River Valley.

The core of Tropical Depression Alberto will move northward across Indiana on Wednesday.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms will continue to drop heavy rain in the eastern half of the circulation.  The greatest risk for flooding will be in locations where bands of heavier rain remain over those areas for several hours.  The ground is already very wet in parts of the eastern U.S.  Water levels in streams and rivers could rise quickly.  Saturated ground could also contribute to potential mudslides in steeper terrain.

Subtropical Storm Alberto Makes Landfall in Northwest Florida

Subtropical Storm Alberto made landfall in northwest Florida late on Monday afternoon.  According to the National Hurricane Center the center of Subtropical Storm Alberto officially made landfall near Laguna Beach, Florida.  At 5:00 p.m. the center of Subtropical Storm Alberto was located at latitude 30.3°N and longitude 85.9°W which put it about 15 miles (25 km) west-northwest of Panama City, Florida.  Alberto was moving toward the north at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 994 mb.  A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Aucilla, River, Florida to the border between Florida and Alabama.

Subtropical Storm Alberto weakened slowly as it approached the coast of northwest Florida.  Several factors contributed to the weakening of Alberto.  Drier air spiraled into the core of the circulation.  The drier air inhibited the development of taller thunderstorms in the eastern and southern quadrants of the circulation.  Most of the stronger storms developed north and west of the center of circulation.  Daytime heating of the land made the atmosphere more unstable and the instability contributed to the development of thunderstorms in rainbands in those parts of Alberto.  Subtropical Storm Alberto also mixed cooler water to the surface as it moved slowly toward the coast of Florida.  The Sea Surface Temperature near the coast was about 26°C before Subtropical Storm Alberto arrived.  However, the layer of warmer water was very thin.  The winds caused by Alberto mixed the water in the upper levels of the Gulf of Mexico.  The mixing brought cooler water to the surface and the Sea Surface Temperature cooled to near 24°C.  The cooler water meant there was less energy to support the circulation around Subtropical Storm Alberto.

The circulation of Subtropical Storm Alberto will weaken slowly as it moves inland.  Winds blowing water toward the coast will continue to produce a storm surge of 3 to 4 feet (1 to 1.3 meters) east of the center of circulation for another 12 to 24 hours.  A large surface high pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean will steer Subtropical Storm Alberto slowly toward the north during the next several days.  Locally heavy rain could produce flooding as Alberto moves northward.  Flood Watches have been issued for areas between the Gulf Coast and the Lower Ohio River Valley.  Flood Watches have also been issued for places as far east as the Carolinas and Virginia.  The risk of flooding is even greater for locations that already received heavy rain from previous weather systems.

Subtropical Storm Alberto Strengthens on Its Way to Northwest Florida

Subtropical Storm Alberto strengthened on Sunday as it moved closer to northwest Florida.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Subtropical Storm Alberto was located at latitude 28.5°N and longitude 85.8°W which put it about 95 miles (155 km) south-southwest of Apalachicola, Florida.  Alberto was moving toward the northwest at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and the were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 991 mb.  A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Suwannee River, Florida to the border between Alabama and Mississippi.

The circulation of Subtropical Storm Alberto became more organized on Sunday.  A band of showers and thunderstorms wrapped around the center of circulation.  A band of drier air wrapped around the circulation just outside the rainband.  The band of drier air kept the circulation from developing a completely tropical structure and the National Hurricane Center continued to classify Alberto as a subtropical storm.  Alberto moved closer to the center of an upper level low over the Gulf of Mexico.  The upper level winds were weaker near the center of the low and the vertical wind shear decreased.  An upper level ridge over the Florida peninsula enhanced upper level divergence to the east of Alberto and the surface pressure decreases on Sunday.

Subtropical Storm Alberto will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification on Monday.  Alberto will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 28°C.  The upper level low will continue to produce some vertical wind shear.  The band of drier air will limit the development of thunderstorms outside the primary rainband.  Some intensification is possible during the next 12 hours, but the wind shear and drier air should limit any strengthening.

The upper low and the ridge over Florida will steer Subtropical Storm Alberto slowly toward the northwest.  On its anticipated track the center of Subtropical Storm Alberto is expected to make landfall over northwest Florida on Monday.  Alberto will be capable of causing minor wind damage.  Wind blowing water toward the coast will produce a storm surge of up to 4 to 7 feet (1.3 to 2.3 meters).  Alberto will drop heavy rain over parts of the southeastern U.S. and flooding could occur in some locations.

Subtropical Storm Alberto Moves Into the Gulf of Mexico

Subtropical Storm Alberto moved over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico on Saturday.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Saturday the center of Subtropical Storm Alberto was located at latitude 23.9°N and longitude 84.6°W which put it about 120 miles (195 km) west-southwest of the Dry Tortugas.  Alberto was moving toward the north-northeast at 13 m.p.h. (20 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1001 mb.

Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for the Dry Tortugas and the portions of the coast from Bonita Beach to Anclote River and from the Aucilla River to the border between Alabama and Mississippi.  A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect from the border between Alabama and Mississippi to the Mouth of the Pearl River.

The circulation of Subtropical Storm Alberto remained poorly organized on Saturday.  Several low level centers dissipated and new low level centers of circulation developed on the southwestern edge of an area of thunderstorms northeast of the center.  Even though the center of circulation reorganized several times, the pressure did decrease slowly during the day.  The strongest wind speeds were occurring in the area of thunderstorms northeast of the center of circulation.  The winds were weaker south and west of the center.

Subtropical Storm Alberto will move through an environment that will become more favorable for intensification during the next 48 hours.  Alberto will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 28°C.  An upper level trough over the western Gulf of Mexico was producing southwesterly winds which were blowing across the top of the circulation.  Those winds were causing significant vertical wind shear which was inhibiting the intensification of Subtropical Storm Alberto.  The shear was also preventing thunderstorms from persisting near the center of circulation, which was keeping Alberto from making a transition to a tropical storm.  An upper level ridge was forming over Florida.  The ridge was starting to enhance upper level divergence to the east of Subtropical Storm Alberto.

The upper level trough will gradually evolve into a closed upper level low.  The vertical wind shear will slowly decrease during the next several days.  When the shear decreases, it will allow Subtropical Storm Alberto to strengthen.  Less vertical wind shear will also let thunderstorms persist closer to the center of circulation.  If thunderstorms persist near the center, then Alberto could exhibit the structure of a tropical cyclone and it could be designated as a tropical storm.  Subtropical Storm Alberto could intensify into a hurricane over the northern Gulf of Mexico.

The reformations of the low level center of circulation increase the uncertainty of track forecasts.  The upper level trough is likely to steer Subtropical Storm Alberto toward the north on Sunday.  Alberto could turn more toward the north-northwest when the trough changes into an upper level low.  On its anticipated track Subtropical Storm Alberto could approach the coast of the northern Gulf of Mexico within 48 hours.  Alberto could be a strong tropical storm or a hurricane at that time.

Subtropical Storm Alberto will be capable of causing minor wind damage when it makes landfall.  Alberto will drop locally heavy rain north and east of the center of circulation.  Flood Watches have been issued for several states in the southeastern U.S.  The Gulf Coast is very susceptible to storm surge.  There will be increases in the water level along the eastern and northern Gulf Coast where the winds blow water toward the shore.

Subtropical Storm Alberto Forms Over Northwest Caribbean Sea

Subtropical Storm Alberto formed over the northwestern Caribbean Sea on Friday morning.  The National Hurricane Center (NHC) designated an area of low pressure as Subtropical Storm Alberto on Friday morning based on data from buoys and ship reports.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Subtropical Storm Alberto was located at latitude 19.4°N and longitude 86.3°W which put it about 85 miles (135 km) south-southeast of Cozumel, Mexico.  Alberto was moving toward the east at 2 m.p.h. (3 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1005 mb.

A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the portion of the U.S. coast from Indian Pass, Florida to Grand Isle, Louisiana including New Orleans.  The government of Mexico issued a Tropical Storm Watch for the portion of the coast from Tulum to Cabo Catoche.  The government of Cuba issued a Tropical Storm Watch for the province of Pinar del Rio.

The circulation around Subtropical Storm Alberto was asymmetrical.  The low level center of circulation was located just to east of the Yucatan Peninsula.  The strongest thunderstorms were occurring in a band located about 100 miles (160 km) east and north of the center.  Flow around an upper level trough over the Gulf of Mexico was producing westerly winds which were blowing toward the top of the circulation.  Those winds were causing strong vertical wind shear which was the reason why the thunderstorms were occurring well to the east of the center of circulation.

Subtropical Storm Alberto will move through an environment marginally favorable for intensification during the next 24 to 36 hours.  Alberto will move over water where  the Sea Surface Temperature is near 28°C.  So, there is sufficient energy in the upper ocean to support intensification.  However, the upper level trough will continue to cause moderate to strong vertical wind shear during the next day or so.  The wind shear will inhibit intensification.  Some gradual strengthening is possible.  The winds are weaker near the axis of the upper level trough.  If Alberto moves under the axis of the trough when it reaches the northern Gulf of Mexico, then the wind shear will decrease.  Alberto could strengthen more quickly if that happens.  There is a chance that Alberto could reach hurricane intensity.  If more thunderstorms form closer to the center of circulation, then NHC could change the designation of Alberto to a tropical storm.

Subtropical Storm Alberto is moving around the western end of a large high pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean.  The high is steering Alberto slowly toward the north-northeast.  A general motion toward the north is forecast during the next day or so.  When Alberto gets farther north, the upper level trough could steer it more toward the north-northwest.  There is a chance that the steering currents could weaken when Alberto nears the Gulf Coast.  Thus, there is much more uncertainty about the track forecast after that time.

The greatest risk with Subtropical Storm Alberto will be locally heavy rain and the potential for flooding.  Most of the heavy rain is likely to fall north and east of the center.  Much less rain is likely to fall from the western side of Alberto.  The coast of the Gulf of Mexico is very susceptible to storm surges.  The water level will rise along the eastern and northern coasts of the Gulf of Mexico where the winds blow the water toward the shoreline.