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Hurricane Rafael Moves Over Southeastern Gulf of Mexico

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Hurricane Rafael moved over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico on Thursday.  At 4:00 p.m. EST on Thursday the center of Hurricane Rafael was located at latitude 24.7°N and longitude 86.2°W which put the center about 325 miles (520 km) northeast of Progreso, Mexico.  Rafael was moving toward the west-northwest at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 105 m.p.h. (165 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 125 m.p.h. (200 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 968 mb.

Hurricane Rafael weakened a little on Wednesday night as it moved across western Cuba.  Rafael strengthened again on Thursday when it moved over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico.  The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the center of Rafael’s circulation and an eye formed again at the center of Hurricane Rafael.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Rafael’s circulation.  Storms near the core of Rafael generated upper level divergence that pumped more mass away from the hurricane. The removal of more mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The circulation around Hurricane Rafael was small.  Wind to hurricane force extended out 30 miles (50 km) from the center of Rafael’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 105 miles (165 km) from the center of Hurricane Rafael.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Hurricane Rafael was 17.8.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 10.0 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 27.8.  Hurricane Rafael was similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Zeta when Zeta hit Louisiana in 2020.

Rafael will move into an environment favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Rafael will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move under the eastern periphery of a large upper level trough that extends from the North Central U.S. to the Southwest U.S.  The upper level trough will produce southwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Rafael’s circulation. Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear, but the wind shear may not be enough to prevent intensification.  Hurricane Rafael could intensify during the next 24 hours.  The wind shear is likely to increase during the weekend and Rafael is likely to weaken when the shear increases.

Hurricane Rafael will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system that extends from the western Atlantic Ocean to the Gulf of Mexico.  The high pressure system will steer Rafael toward the west during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Hurricane Rafael will move toward the central Gulf of Mexico.

Low Pressure System Forms Over Western Caribbean Sea

A low pressure system formed over the western Caribbean Sea on Sunday.  The U.S. National Hurricane Center designated the system as Invest 97L.  At 8:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Invest 97L was located at latitude 15.7°N and longitude 92.8°W which put the center about 425 miles (690 km) southeast of Cozmel, Mexico.  The low pressure system was moving toward the north-northwest at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 25 m.p.h. (40 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1006 mb.

A low pressure system formed over the western Caribbean Sea northeast of Cabo Gracias a Dios on Sunday.  Thunderstorms developed in the eastern side of the low pressure that was over the western Caribbean Sea.  Much of the western side of Invest 97L was over Honduras and Nicaragua.  Bands in the western side of the low pressure system consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.

The low pressure system designated as Invest 97L will move through an environment favorable for the formation of a tropical cyclone during the next 24 hours.  Invest 97L The tropical depression will be over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C.  It will move under the middle of an upper level ridge over the western Caribbean Sea.  The upper level winds are weak near the middle of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Invest 97L is likely to form into a tropical depression or a tropical storm on Monday.

A reconnaissance plane is tentatively scheduled to investigated the low pressure system on Monday afternoon, if necessary.

The low pressure system designated as Invest 97L will move around the western end of a high pressure system over the western Atlantic Ocean.  The high pressure system will steer Invest 97L toward the north-northwest during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, the low pressure system will move over the northwestern Caribbean Sea on Monday.  Invest 97L is likely to move into the Gulf of Mexico by the middle of the week.

Disturbance Moves Toward Gulf Coast

A disturbance generated by a cluster of thunderstorms moved toward the Gulf Coast on Sunday afternoon. At 2:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of the disturbance was located near latitude 27.0°N and longitude 88.0°W which put it about 240 miles (390 km) south of Mobile, Alabama. The disturbance was moving toward the north-northeast at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1015 mb.

A disturbance generated by a cluster of thunderstorms over the central Gulf of Mexico was designated as Invest 90L on Sunday afternoon. Visible satellite images showed that a distinct center of circulation had formed in a disturbance over the north central Gulf of Mexico on Sunday afternoon. A swirl of lower clouds was clearly visible on the images. Some thunderstorms were beginning to develop in bands northwest of the center of circulation. Otherwise, there were mainly low clouds and showers in the other bands near the center. Thunderstorms were also occurring in a band on the northeastern periphery of the disturbance.

The disturbance will move through an environment that will be marginally favorable for the development of a tropical cyclone during the next 18 hours. The disturbance will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29˚C. The southern end of an upper level trough over the central U.S. will produce southwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of the disturbance. Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear and the wind shear will inhibit the development of a tropical cyclone. The disturbance is currently forecast not to develop into a tropical cyclone, but some development could occur if more thunderstorms form near the center of circulation. The National Hurricane Center in its 2:00 p.m. EDT Tropical Weather Outlook indicated the probability was 10% that the disturbance would develop into a tropical cyclone.

The upper level trough over the central U.S. will steer the disturbance toward the north-northeast. On its anticipated track the cluster of storms will move toward the central Gulf Coast. Bands of thunderstorms could drop locally heavy rain over northwest Florida and south Alabama during the next 48 hours. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations. Some thunderstorms could approach severe criteria.

Cluster of Thunderstorms Forms over Central Gulf of Mexico

A cluster of thunderstorms formed over the central Gulf of Mexico on Saturday. The cluster of storms persisted on Sunday morning. At 8:00 a.m. EDT on Sunday the center of the cluster of thunderstorms was located near latitude 26.0°N and longitude 88.0°W which put it about 310 miles (500 km) south of Mobile, Alabama. The cluster of thunderstorms was moving slowly toward the north-northeast. Some of the thunderstorms in the cluster were producing sustained winds of 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1015 mb.

A cluster of thunderstorms formed over the central Gulf of Mexico on Saturday and it persisted on Sunday morning. There was not a well defined low level center of circulation beneath the cluster of storms. Visible satellite loops provided indications of several possible centers of rotation in the middle troposphere. Thunderstorms in the cluster generated some upper level divergence that pumped mass away toward the northeast. The strongest winds were occurring in bands of thunderstorms.

The cluster of thunderstorms will move through an environment that will be marginally favorable for the development of a tropical cyclone during the next 18 hours. The cluster of storms will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29˚C. The southern end of an upper level trough over the central U.S. will produce southwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of the thunderstorms. Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear and the wind shear will inhibit the development of a tropical cyclone. The cluster of thunderstorms is currently forecast not to develop into a tropical cyclone, but some development could occur if a surface center of circulation forms beneath the cluster.

The upper level trough over the central U.S. will steer the cluster of thunderstorms toward the north-northeast. On its anticipated track the cluster of storms will move toward the central Gulf Coast. Bands of thunderstorms could drop locally heavy rain over northwest Florida and south Alabama during the next 48 hours. One band of showers and thunderstorms is currently approaching that area. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations. Some thunderstorms could approach severe criteria.

Tropical Storm Barry Strengthens South of Louisiana

Tropical Storm Barry strengthened south of Louisiana on Friday morning.  Hurricane Hunters flying into Barry found that the maximum sustained wind speed had increased to 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h).  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Storm Barry was located at latitude 28.2°N and longitude 90.4°W which put it about 115 miles (185 km) south-southeast of Morgan City, Louisiana.  Barry was moving toward the west-northwest at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 998 mb.

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Intracoastal City to Grand Isle, Louisiana. Hurricane Watches have been issued for the portions of the coast from the Mouth of the Mississippi River to Grand Isle, Louisiana and from Intracoastal City to Cameron, Louisiana. Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect for the portions of the coast from the Mouth of the Pearl River to Grand Isle, Louisiana and from Intracoastal City to Cameron, Louisiana. A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the portion of the coast from the Mouth of the Pearl River to the Mississippi/Alabama border. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas and New Orleans.

The circulation around Tropical Storm Barry exhibited greater organization on Friday morning.  Thunderstorms developed in a band around the southern side of the center of circulation.  More thunderstorms also formed in bands that stretched around the western, southern and eastern sides of the circulation.  Bands in the northern portion of the circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds, although there were some thunderstorms in the parts of those bands over land.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 170 miles (280 km) from the center of circulation.  Storms just south of the center were generating upper level divergence which was pumping mass away to the west of Tropical Storm Barry.  The removal of mass allowed the surface pressure to decrease and it was down to 998 mb on Friday morning.

Tropical Storm Barry will move through an environment that is some what favorable for intensification.  Barry will move south of a narrow upper level ridge that stretches from east Texas to south Alabama.  The ridge will produce northeasterly winds which will cause some vertical wind shear.  The shear is one of the reasons why there are fewer thunderstorms in the northern part of the circulation.  Reconnaissance aircraft reported that the middle level center was a little to the south of the surface center.  The tilt of the circulation with height is also the result of the vertical wind shear.  However, the shear will not be strong enough to prevent intensification.  Tropical Storm Barry will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30.5°C.  It will extract a lot of energy from the Gulf of Mexico.  Tropical Storm Barry is forecast to strengthen into a hurricane during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Storm Barry is moving around the southwestern part of a ridge of high pressure over the southeastern U.S.  The ridge will steer Barry slowly toward the west-northwest during the next few hours.  Barry will turn more toward the northwest later on Friday.  On its anticipated track the center of Tropical Storm Barry will approach the coast of Louisiana late Friday night.  Barry is forecast to be a hurricane when it reaches the coast.  The broad circulation will cause mostly minor wind damage over a large area.  There could be widespread power outages.  Barry will also generate a storm surge of 6 to 9 feet (2 to 3 meters near where the center makes landfall.  Tropical Storm Barry will drop heavy rain when it moves slowly inland.  Flooding is a serious risk, since soils are nearly saturated and many creeks and rivers are already high.

Tropical Storm Barry Threatens Louisiana

Tropical Storm Barry threatened Louisiana on Thursday.  A low pressure system formerly designated at Potential Tropical Cyclone Two strengthened into Tropical Storm Barry on Thursday morning.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Storm Barry was located at latitude 27.8°N and longitude 88.7°W which put it about 95 miles (150 km) south-southeast of the Mouth of the Mississippi River and about 200 miles (320 km) southeast of Morgan City, Louisiana.  Barry was moving toward the west at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1005 mb.

A Hurricane Watch has been issued for the portion of the coast from the Mouth of the Mississippi River to Cameron, Louisiana.  A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from the Mouth of the Pearl River to Morgan City, Louisiana.  A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the portion of the coast from the Mouth of the Pearl River to the Mississippi/Alabama border.  A Tropical Storm Watch has also been issued for Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas and New Orleans.

The circulation around Tropical Storm Barry exhibited more organization on Thursday morning, but there were not a lot of thunderstorms near the center of circulation.  Many of the thunderstorms were occurring in bands wrapping around the western and southern sides of the circulation.  Bands in the northern half of the circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Winds to tropical storm force were occurring in the southeastern part of Tropical Storm Barry.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out about 100 miles (160 km) from the center in that quadrant of Barry.  The winds were weaker in other quadrants of the circulation.

Tropical Storm Barry will move through an environment favorable for intensification during the next 36 hours.  Barry will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30.5°C.  It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Tropical Storm Barry will intensify slowly until more thunderstorms form near the center of circulation.  If thunderstorms consolidate around an inner core, then rapid intensification would be possible.  Tropical Storm Barry is forecast to strengthen into a hurricane on Friday.

Tropical Storm Barry will move around the southwestern part of a ridge of high pressure over the southeastern U.S.  The ridge is likely to steer Barry slowly toward the west during the next 12 to 24 hours.  Tropical Storm Barry will move more toward the northwest when it moves around the southwestern part of the ridge.  There is still some uncertainty about the timing and location of the turn toward the northwest.  Based on its anticipated track Tropical Storm Barry could approach the coast of Louisiana on Friday night.

Tropical Storm Barry is forecast to strengthen into a hurricane before it makes landfall.  It will bring strong, gusty winds to coastal regions of Louisiana.  Those winds will also push a storm surge toward the coast.  The storm surge could be up to 6 to 8 feet (2 to 3 meters) near where the center makes landfall.  Tropical Storm Barry could drop heavy rain when it moves inland.  Many rivers and streams are already high and locally heavy rain could cause flooding in those locations.

NHC Initiates Advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone Two

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) initiated advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone Two on Wednesday morning.  NHC initiated the advisories in order to be able to issue watches for a portion of the coast of Louisiana.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Potential Tropical Cyclone Two was located at latitude 28.5°N and longitude 86.4°W which put it about 170 miles (270 km) east-southeast of the Mouth of the Mississippi River.  It was moving toward the west-southwest at 8 m.p.h. (13 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 30 m.p.h. (50 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1011 mb.  A Tropical Storm Watch was issued for the portion of the coast from the Mouth of the Mississippi River to Morgan City, Louisiana.

The circulation around Potential Tropical Cyclone Two was not well organized.  There was a large, but relatively weak circulation near the surface.  There was not a well defined center of circulation near the surface.  There was a stronger counterclockwise circulation between about 10,000 feet (3000 meters) and 25,000 feet (7600 meters) above the surface, which was located above the southwestern part of the surface circulation.  Many of the stronger thunderstorms were occurring in bands on the northern and western sides of the circulation above the surface.  There were fewer thunderstorms in the eastern side of the larger, surface circulation.

Potential Tropical Cyclone Two will move through an environment very favorable for development and intensification.  It will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  The system will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear.  It is likely that a center of circulation will form at the surface underneath the counterclockwise circulation above the surface.  Potential Tropical Cyclone Two will strengthen slowly until the surface center is underneath the center higher in the atmosphere.  After the circulation becomes aligned vertically, the system could strengthen more rapidly.  Potential Tropical Cyclone Two is likely to become a hurricane within 48 to 60 hours.

Potential Tropical Cyclone Two will move south of a ridge over the southeastern U.S.  The ridge will steer Potential Tropical Cyclone Two toward the southwest.  It will move more toward the west on Thursday and then turn back more toward the northwest on Friday when it nears the western end of the ridge.  There will be significant uncertainty about the future track of the system until a well defined center of circulation forms at the surface.  On its anticipated track the center of Tropical Cyclone Two could approach the coast of Louisiana and northeast Texas on Friday.  Hurricane Watches and Warnings are likely to be issued for portions of the coast later this week.

Potential Tropical Cyclone Two presents a wide range of hazards.  It will bring hurricane force winds to portions of Louisiana and Texas and it will disrupt operations of offshore facilities in the northwestern Gulf of Mexico.  After the center of the system moves west of New Orleans, southerly winds will force water into the Mouth of the Mississippi River.  The level of the Mississippi River around New Orleans is already near flood stage and any additional rise in the water level could cause serious flooding around the city.  If Potential Tropical Cyclone Two strengthens into a hurricane, as expected, it will cause a significant storm near where the center makes landfall.  The system also has the potential to drop heavy rain and flooding could occur when it moves inland.

Potential Tropical Development Over Northern Gulf of Mexico

The potential exists for the development of a tropical cyclone over the northern Gulf of Mexico this week.  A low pressure system was over Georgia on Monday afternoon.  The low was drifting slowly southward, but it was forecast to move more toward the south-southwest during the next two days.  Several numerical models were predicting that the low pressure system would strengthen into a tropical depression or a tropical storm after it moves over the northern Gulf of Mexico later this week.  The National Hurricane Center was indicating that the low pressure system, currently designated as Invest 92L, had a 30% probability of developing into a tropical cyclone during the next two days and an 80% probability of developing into a tropical cyclone during the next five days.

The low pressure system exhibited a surface circulation on Monday afternoon, but the wind speed was near 15 m.p.h. (25 km/h).  Bands of showers and thunderstorms formed during the daytime heating over land, but they weakened at night.  There was also a counterclockwise rotation in the lower and middle troposphere which may have been the remnants of a mesoscale convective vortex (MCV), which developed over the Middle Mississippi River Valley a few days ago.  The low was not generating upper level divergence on Monday afternoon.

If the low pressure system does move over the northern Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday or Wednesday, it will move into an environment more favorable for the development of a tropical depression.  The Sea Surface Temperature of the water in the northeastern Gulf of Mexico is near 30°C.  The low pressure system will move southeast of an upper level ridge over the southern U.S.  The ridge will produce northeasterly winds, but the winds will be relatively weak and the vertical wind shear will not be too strong.  More thunderstorms are likely to develop when the low pressure system moves over the warm water.  If those thunderstorms generate upper level divergence that pumps mass away, then the surface pressure will decrease and a tropical depression will form.

The upper level ridge is forecast to steer the low pressure system toward the west after it moves over the Gulf of Mexico later this week.  On its anticipated track the low pressure system will move slowly toward the coast of Louisiana and Texas.  The future intensity of the system will be determined by how far the system moves into the Gulf of Mexico.  If the low pressure system takes a track along or near the north coast of the Gulf of Mexico, then it will likely become a tropical depression or a weak tropical storm.  Even if the low only strengthens into a tropical depression, it could drop heavy rain and the potential for flooding exists along the northern Gulf Coast.  If the low pressure system moves farther out into the Gulf of Mexico and remains over warm water for a longer period, then it might intensify into a hurricane.  Residents along the Gulf Coast should monitor this system carefully.

Michael Strengthens to a Major Hurricane

Hurricane Michael strengthened into a major hurricane on Tuesday afternoon.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Hurricane Michael was located at latitude 26.0°N and longitude 86.4°W which put it about 290 miles (470 km) south of Panama City, Florida.  Michael was moving toward the north at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 120 m.p.h. (195 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 140 m.p.h. (225 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 957 mb.

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from the Alabama-Florida border to the Suwanee River, Florida.  Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect for the portions of the coast from the Alabama-Florida border to the Alabama-Mississippi border, from Suwanee River to Chassahowitzka, Florida and from Fernandina Beach, Florida to South Santee River, South Carolina on the Atlantic Coast.  Tropical Storm Watches are in effect for the portions of the coast from the Alabama-Mississippi border to the Mouth of the Pearl River, from Chassahowitzka to Anna Maria Island, Florida and from South Santee, River South Carolina to Duck, North Carolina including Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds.

The inner core of Hurricane Michael tightened on Tuesday afternoon.  The diameter of the eye decreased from 30 miles (50 km) to 22 miles (35 km).  The ring of thunderstorms around the eye tightened around the smaller eye and the strongest winds were closer to the center of circulation.  Storms around the core of Michael were generating upper level divergence which was pumping mass away from the hurricane.  The removal of mass allowed the surface pressure to decrease from 965 mb to 957 mb during the past six hours.

Winds to hurricane force extend out about 45 miles (75 km) from the center of Hurricane Michael.  Winds to tropical storm force extend out about 170 miles (280 km) from the center of circulation.  The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Hurricane Michael is 22.1.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 14.6 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 36.7.  Hurricane Michael is capable of causing regional major damage.

Hurricane Michael will move through an environment favorable for intensification for another 12 to 18 hours.  Michael will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 29°C.  An upper level trough over the Central U.S. is producing westerly winds which are blowing toward the top of Hurricane Michael, but those winds are not causing enough vertical wind shear to prevent intensification.  Hurricane Michael could intensify to Category 4 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale before it makes landfall.

Hurricane Michael is moving between a subtropical high pressure system over the western Atlantic Ocean and the upper level trough over the Central U.S.  Those two weather systems are steering Michael toward the north and that general motion is expected to continue for another 12 hours.  On its anticipated track Hurricane Michael will make landfall near Panama City and Port St. Joe, Florida early on Wednesday afternoon.  The upper level trough will steer Michael more toward the northeast after it makes landfall.  The center of Michael is likely to move between Dothan, Alabama and Tallahassee, Florida and it could pass near Albany, Georgia.

Hurricane Michael will bring strong winds to northwest Florida, extreme southeast Alabama and southern Georgia.  There will be wind damage and widespread power outages could occur.  The coast of the northeastern Gulf of Mexico is very vulnerable to storm surges.  Hurricane Michael will produce a storm surge of 10 to 15 feet (3 to 5 meters) at some points along the coast.  Michael will drop locally heavy rain.  Although Hurricane Michael will weaken when it moves inland, it will bring gusty winds and heavy rain to South Carolina and North Carolina.  Hurricane Michael will hinder efforts in those states to recover from the effects of Hurricane Florence.

Possible Tropical Development Near Yucatan Peninsula

A tropical cyclone could develop near the Yucatan peninsula during the next few days.  At 2:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Invest 91L was located at latitude 16.0°N and longitude 84.3°W which put it about 400 miles (640 km) southeast of Cancun, Mexico.  It was moving toward the northwest at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 30 m.p.h. (50 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1007 mb.

A broad area of low pressure is over the western Caribbean Sea, Central America and the adjacent waters of the Eastern North Pacific Ocean.  Several smaller, mesoscale centers of rotation appear to be revolving around the larger low pressure system.  One of the mesoscale centers is over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean just west of the coast of Central America.  One or two other mesoscale centers appear to be over the western Caribbean Sea near Honduras.  The low level circulation is not currently well organized.  It is broad and diffuse.  Thunderstorms are clustered around the mesoscale centers, but large scale rainbands have not formed.

Westerly winds in the upper levels are are blowing over the top of the system.  Those winds are creating moderate vertical wind shear which is inhibiting the development of the low pressure system.  The upper level winds are forecast to weaken during the next few days and the wind shear will diminish.  The Sea Surface Temperature of the water in the northwestern Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico is near 30°C.  The broad low pressure system could slowly organize during the next two to three days.  The National Hurricane Center is indicating that there is a 70% probability of formation of a tropical cyclone near the Yucatan peninsula or over the southern Gulf of Mexico during the next five days.  A reconnaissance plane is scheduled to investigate the low pressure system on Sunday, if necessary.

The broad low is southwest of a subtropical high pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean.  The high is expected to steer the low toward the northwest during the weekend.  On its anticipated track the low will move over the northwestern Caribbean Sea during the next several days.  it could move into the Gulf of Mexico on Monday.

Elsewhere over the Atlantic Ocean, Tropical Storm Leslie continued to meander northeast of Bermuda.  At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Storm Leslie was located at latitude 36.2°N and longitude 58.4°W which put it about 455 miles (730 km) northeast of Bermuda.  Leslie was moving toward the north-northwest at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 986 mb.