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Isaias Intensifies to a Major Hurricane

Hurricane Isaias intensified to a major hurricane early on Friday as it moved toward the northern Gulf Coast.  At 8:20 a.m. EDT on Friday the center of Hurricane Isaias was located at latitude 27.0°N and longitude 87.6°W which put the center about 240 miles (390 km) south of Pensacola, Florida.  Isaias was moving toward the north-northeast at 15 m.p.h. (24 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 120 m.p.h. (195 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 140 m.p.h. (225 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 959 mb.

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Ocean Springs, Mississippi to the Bay County/ Gulf County line in Florida.  The Hurricane Warning includes Mobile, Alabama and Pensacola, Florida.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from the Jefferson Parish/Plaquemines Parish line in Louisiana to Ocean Springs, Mississippi.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from the Bay County/Gulf County Line to Aucilla River, Florida.

Aircraft reconnaissance found that Hurricane Isaias had intensified to a major hurricane on Friday morning.

A circular eye with a diameter of 25 miles (40 km) was at the center of Hurricane Isaias.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Isaias’ circulation.  Storms near the center of Isaias generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical storm.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The size of the circulation around Hurricane Isaias increased on Thursday night.  Winds to hurricane force extended out 30 miles (50 km) from the center of Isaias’ circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 185 miles (295 km) from the center of Hurricane Isaias.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Hurricane Isaias is 22.1.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 12.0 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 34.1.  Hurricane Isaias is similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Dennis when Dennis hit Northwest Florida in 2005.

Hurricane Isaias will move through an environment that will be somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 12 hours.  Isaias will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C.  It will move under the southeastern part of an upper level trough that is over Texas.  The upper level trough will produce southwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Isaias’ circulation.  Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear, but the wind shear may not be enough to prevent intensification.  Hurricane Isaias could intensify during the next 12 hours.

The upper level trough over Texas will steer Isaias toward the north during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, Isaias will make landfall on the northern Gulf Coast near Pensacola, Florida on Friday night.

Hurricane Isaias will bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to the northern Gulf Coast.  Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.  Isaias will be capable of causing major damage.  Widespread electricity outages are likely.

Flood Watches are in effect for parts of southern Mississippi, southern Alabama, and Northwest Florida.

Isaias could cause a storm surge of up to 13 feet (4 meters) along portions of the northern Gulf Coast.

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from the Mouth of the Mississippi River to Suwannee River, Florida.

Hurricane Isaias Intensifies to Cat. 2

Hurricane Isaias intensified to Category 2 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale on Thursday afternoon.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Hurricane Isaias was located at latitude 24.4°N and longitude 89.3°W which put the center about 325 miles (525 km) south of the Mouth of the Mississippi River.  Isaias was moving toward the northeast at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 120 m.p.h. (195 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 975 mb.

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Ocean Springs, Mississippi to the Bay County/ Gulf County line in Florida.  The Hurricane Warning includes Mobile, Alabama and Pensacola, Florida.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from the Jefferson Parish/Plaquemines Parish line in Louisiana to Ocean Springs, Mississippi.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from the Bay County/Gulf County Line to Aucilla River, Florida.

Hurricane Isaias intensified to Cat. 2 on the Saffir- Simpson Scale on Thursday afternoon.

The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the center of Isaias’ circulation.  A circular eye with a diameter of 30 miles (50 km) formed at the center of Hurricane Isaias.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Isaias’ circulation.  Storms near the center of Isaias generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical storm.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The distribution of wind speeds in Hurricane Isaias became more symmetrical on Thursday afternoon.  Winds to hurricane force extended out 20 miles (30 km) from the center of Isaias’ circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 130 miles (210 km) from the center of Hurricane Isaias.

The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Hurricane Isaias is 16.5.  The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 8.6 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 25.1.  Hurricane Isaias is similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Idalia when Idalia hit Florida in 2023.

Hurricane Isaias will move through an environment that will be favorable for intensification during the next 18 hours.  Isaias will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C.  It will move under the southeastern part of an upper level trough that is over the South Central U.S.  The upper level trough will produce westerly winds that will blow toward the top of Isaias’ circulation.  Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear, but the wind shear will not be enough to prevent intensification.  Hurricane Isaias is likely to intensify during the next 18 hours.  Isaias could strengthen to a major hurricane.

Hurricane Isaias will move around the southeastern part of the upper level trough that is over the South Central U.S.   The upper level trough will steer Isaias toward the north-northeast during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Isaias will reach the northern Gulf Coast on Friday night.

Hurricane Isaias will bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to the northern Gulf Coast.  Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.  Isaias will be capable of causing serious damage.  Widespread electricity outages are likely.

Flood Watches are in effect for parts of southern Mississippi, southern Alabama, and Northwest Florida.

Isaias could cause a storm surge of up to 12 feet (3.6 meters) along portions of the northern Gulf Coast.

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from the Mouth of the Mississippi River to Suwannee River, Florida.

Isaias Strengthens to a Hurricane

Former Tropical Storm Isaias strengthened to a hurricane as it moved over the central Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday night.  At 8:00 a.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Hurricane Isaias was located at latitude 23.7°N and longitude 90.6°W which put the center about 385 miles (620 km) south-southwest of the Mouth of the Mississippi River.  Isaias was moving toward the east-northeast at 9 m.p.h. (15 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 95 m.p.h. (150 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 975 mb.

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Ocean Springs, Mississippi to the Bay County/ Gulf County line in Florida.  The Hurricane Warning includes Mobile, Alabama and Pensacola, Florida.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from the Jefferson Parish/Plaquemines Parish line in Louisiana to Ocean Springs, Mississippi.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from the Bay County/Gulf County Line to Aucilla River, Florida.

Former Tropical Storm Isaias strengthened to a hurricane on Wednesday night.

The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the western and southern sides of the center of Hurricane Isaias.  An eye appeared to be forming at the center of Isaias’ circulation.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Isaias’ circulation.  Storms near the center of Isaias generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical storm.  The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.

The strongest winds were occurring in the rainband that wrapped around the western side of the center of Hurricane Isaias.  Winds to hurricane force extended out 20 miles (30 km) in the western side of Isaias’ circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 90 miles (145 km) from the center of Hurricane Isaias.

Hurricane Isaias will move through an environment that will be favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Isaias will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C.  It will move under the southeastern part of an upper level trough that is over the South Central U.S.  The upper level trough will produce westerly winds that will blow toward the top of Isaias’ circulation.  Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear, but the wind shear will not be enough to prevent intensification.  Hurricane Isaias will intensify during the next 24 hours.

Hurricane Isaias will move around the southeastern part of the upper level trough that is over the South Central U.S.   The upper level trough will steer Isaias toward the northeast during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, Isaias will reach the northern Gulf Coast on Friday night.

Hurricane Isaias will bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to the northern Gulf Coast.  Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.

Flood Watches are in effect for parts of southern Mississippi, southern Alabama, and Northwest Florida.

Isaias could cause a storm surge of up to 12 feet (3.6 meters) along portions of the northern Gulf Coast.

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from the Mouth of the Mississippi River to Steinhatchee River, Florida.

 

 

Tropical Storm Bertha Moves West

Tropical Storm Bertha was moving toward the west over the northern Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday evening.  At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Storm Bertha was located at latitude 29.4°N and longitude 87.7°W which put the center about 100 miles (160 km) south-southeast of Mobile, Alabama.   Bertha was moving toward the west at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 995 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from the Bay County/Gulf County Line in Florida to Morgan City, Louisiana.  A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for New Orleans.  A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect Lake Pontchartrain.

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for Lake Maurepas.   A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from Morgan City to Cameron, Louisiana.

Tropical Storm Bertha was maintaining its intensity on Tuesday evening in spite of strong northeasterly winds in the upper troposphere.  Those winds were causing moderate vertical wind shear, but the wind shear was not strong enough to cause Bertha to weaken.  The vertical wind shear was affecting the structure of Tropical Storm Bertha.  Thunderstorms were occurring in bands in the southern half of Tropical Storm Bertha.  Bands in the northern half of Bertha’s circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Storms near the center of Bertha generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the south and west of the tropical storm.  The removal of mass in the upper levels was equal to the convergence of mass in the lower levels of the atmosphere.  So, the surface pressure was remaining constant on Tuesday evening.

The strongest winds were occurring in the southeastern part of Tropical Storm Bertha. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 115 miles (185 km) in the eastern side of Bertha’s circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 45 miles (75 km) in the western side of Tropical Storm Bertha.

Tropical Storm Bertha will move into an environment that will become unfavorable for intensification during the next 24 hours.  Bertha will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C.  It will move under southeastern part of an upper level ridge that is centered over the South Central U.S.  The upper level ridge will produce northeasterly winds that will blow across the top of Bertha’s circulation.  Those upper level winds are forecast to get stronger on Wednesday.  Those stronger winds will cause the vertical wind shear to increase.  Tropical Storm Bertha could maintain its intensity during the next few hours.  Bertha is likely to weaken when the vertical wind shear increases.

Tropical Storm Bertha will move around the southern side of a high pressure system that is over the southern Mississippi River Valley.  The high pressure system will steer Bertha toward the west during the next 24 hours.  On its anticipated track, the center of Tropical Storm Bertha will reach southeastern Louisiana on Wednesday.

Tropical Storm Bertha will bring gusty winds to the central Gulf Coast.  Since the strongest winds are in the southeastern part of Bertha’s circulation, those winds will remain over the Gulf of Mexico during the next 24 hours.  Bands on the northern side of Tropical Storm Bertha could drop locally heavy rain over parts of Northwest Florida, southern Alabama, southern Mississippi, and southern Louisiana.  Bertha could also cause a storm surge of up to 4 feet (1 meter) along parts of the coast of southeastern Louisiana.

Disturbance Moves Toward Gulf Coast

A disturbance generated by a cluster of thunderstorms moved toward the Gulf Coast on Sunday afternoon. At 2:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of the disturbance was located near latitude 27.0°N and longitude 88.0°W which put it about 240 miles (390 km) south of Mobile, Alabama. The disturbance was moving toward the north-northeast at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1015 mb.

A disturbance generated by a cluster of thunderstorms over the central Gulf of Mexico was designated as Invest 90L on Sunday afternoon. Visible satellite images showed that a distinct center of circulation had formed in a disturbance over the north central Gulf of Mexico on Sunday afternoon. A swirl of lower clouds was clearly visible on the images. Some thunderstorms were beginning to develop in bands northwest of the center of circulation. Otherwise, there were mainly low clouds and showers in the other bands near the center. Thunderstorms were also occurring in a band on the northeastern periphery of the disturbance.

The disturbance will move through an environment that will be marginally favorable for the development of a tropical cyclone during the next 18 hours. The disturbance will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29˚C. The southern end of an upper level trough over the central U.S. will produce southwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of the disturbance. Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear and the wind shear will inhibit the development of a tropical cyclone. The disturbance is currently forecast not to develop into a tropical cyclone, but some development could occur if more thunderstorms form near the center of circulation. The National Hurricane Center in its 2:00 p.m. EDT Tropical Weather Outlook indicated the probability was 10% that the disturbance would develop into a tropical cyclone.

The upper level trough over the central U.S. will steer the disturbance toward the north-northeast. On its anticipated track the cluster of storms will move toward the central Gulf Coast. Bands of thunderstorms could drop locally heavy rain over northwest Florida and south Alabama during the next 48 hours. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations. Some thunderstorms could approach severe criteria.

Cluster of Thunderstorms Forms over Central Gulf of Mexico

A cluster of thunderstorms formed over the central Gulf of Mexico on Saturday. The cluster of storms persisted on Sunday morning. At 8:00 a.m. EDT on Sunday the center of the cluster of thunderstorms was located near latitude 26.0°N and longitude 88.0°W which put it about 310 miles (500 km) south of Mobile, Alabama. The cluster of thunderstorms was moving slowly toward the north-northeast. Some of the thunderstorms in the cluster were producing sustained winds of 35 m.p.h. (55 km/h) and and there were wind gusts to 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1015 mb.

A cluster of thunderstorms formed over the central Gulf of Mexico on Saturday and it persisted on Sunday morning. There was not a well defined low level center of circulation beneath the cluster of storms. Visible satellite loops provided indications of several possible centers of rotation in the middle troposphere. Thunderstorms in the cluster generated some upper level divergence that pumped mass away toward the northeast. The strongest winds were occurring in bands of thunderstorms.

The cluster of thunderstorms will move through an environment that will be marginally favorable for the development of a tropical cyclone during the next 18 hours. The cluster of storms will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29˚C. The southern end of an upper level trough over the central U.S. will produce southwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of the thunderstorms. Those winds will cause some vertical wind shear and the wind shear will inhibit the development of a tropical cyclone. The cluster of thunderstorms is currently forecast not to develop into a tropical cyclone, but some development could occur if a surface center of circulation forms beneath the cluster.

The upper level trough over the central U.S. will steer the cluster of thunderstorms toward the north-northeast. On its anticipated track the cluster of storms will move toward the central Gulf Coast. Bands of thunderstorms could drop locally heavy rain over northwest Florida and south Alabama during the next 48 hours. One band of showers and thunderstorms is currently approaching that area. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations. Some thunderstorms could approach severe criteria.

Powerful Hurricane Ida Hits Southeast Louisiana

Powerful Hurricane Ida hit southeast Louisiana on Sunday. At 2:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Hurricane Ida was located at latitude 29.2°N and longitude 90.3°W which put it about 35 miles (55 km) southeast of Houma, Louisiana. Ida was moving toward the northwest at 13 m.p.h. (20 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 150 m.p.h. (240 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 180 m.p.h. (290 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 930 mb.

A Hurricane Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Intracoastal City, Louisiana to the Mouth of the Pearl River. The Hurricane Warning included New Orleans, Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas. Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for the portions of the coast from Cameron, Louisiana to Intracoastal City and from the Mouth of the Pearl River to the Alabama/Florida Line.

According to the National Hurricane Center the center of Hurricane Ida made landfall near Port Fourchon, Louisiana. That location was about 60 miles (95 km) south of New Orleans, about 15 miles southwest of Grand Isle, and about 45 miles southeast of Houma. Ida rapidly intensified to Category 4 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale as it approached the coast. The maximum sustained wind speed was 150 m.p.h. (240 km/h) at the time of landfall. The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Hurricane Ida was 31.5. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) was 15.3 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) was 46.8. Hurricane Ida was as intense as Hurricane Laura was in 2020. Ida was a little smaller than Laura was.

A weather station at Southwest Pass with an anemometer 125 feet (38 meters) above the station measured a sustained wind speed of 105 m.p.h. (169 km/h) and a wind gust of 121 m.p.h. (195 km/h). A weather station at Pilot’s Station with an anemometer 20 meters above the surface measured a sustained wind speed of 106 m.p.h. (170 km/h) and a wind gust of 128 m.p.h. (205 km/h). Southeasterly winds blowing around the eastern side of Hurricane Ida were pushing water toward the coast. Gauges at Shell Beach, Louisiana and the Waveland Mississippi Yacht Club both measured water level rises of approximately 7 feet (2 meters). Widespread power outages were reported around New Orleans.

Hurricane Ida will move slowly inland during the rest of Sunday. Ida will weaken gradually because it will be moving over a relatively flat surface that includes marshes and bayous. The center of Hurricane Ida will be near Houma, Louisiana in a few hours. Strong southeasterly winds will continue to push water toward the coast and the storm surge will continue until Hurricane Ida moves farther inland and weakens. A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Intracoastal City, Louisiana to the Alabama/Florida border. The Storm Surge Warning includes Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, Lake Borgne and Mobile Bay. Ida will pass near Baton Rouge on Sunday night. Hurricane Ida could produce hurricane force wind gusts near New Orleans and Baton Rouge. More widespread power outages could occur over southeast Louisiana. Ida will move northeast over Mississippi on Monday. It will drop locally heavy rain over eastern Louisiana, Mississippi, western Alabama and southwestern Tennessee. Flash Flood Watches have been issued for those locations.

Tropical Storm Ida Strengthens

Reconnaissance planes found Friday morning that Tropical Storm Ida had strengthened over the Northwest Caribbean Sea. At 8:00 a.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Storm Ida was located at latitude 20.3°N and longitude 81.7°W which put it about 115 miles (185 km) southeast of the Isle of Youth, Cuba. Ida was moving toward the northwest at 15 m.p.h. (24 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 996 mb.

A Hurricane Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Cameron, Louisiana to the Mississippi/Alabama border. The Hurricane Watch included New Orleans, Lake Ponchartrain and Lake Maurepas. Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for the Cayman Islands. Tropical Storm Warnings were also in effect for the Cuban provinces of Matanzas, Mayabeque, Havana, Artemisa, Pinar del Rio and the Isle of Youth. A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from the Mississippi/Alabama border to the Alabama/Florida border.

Two reconnaissance planes flying through Tropical Storm Ida on Friday morning found that the sustained wind speed had increased and the minimum surface pressure had decreased. The planes also found that the circulation around Ida was more organized.  Thunderstorms were forming near the center of Ida.  Storms near the center of circulation were generating upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical storm.  The removal of mass was causing the surface pressure to decrease.  The decreasing pressure resulted in the generation of more force which produced higher wind speeds.  More thunderstorms were also forming in bands revolving around the center of Tropical Storm Ida. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 80 miles (130 km) from the center of Ida.

Tropical Storm Ida will move into an environment that will become increasingly favorable for intensification during the next 48 hours.  An upper level low over the southeast U.S. was producing southerly winds that were blowing toward the top of Ida’s circulation.  Those winds were causing some vertical wind shear.  However, the upper low was moving away from Ida and the low was weakening.  The wind shear will decrease as the upper low weakens.  Tropical Storm Ida will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30˚C.  Ida will continue to intensify today.  Tropical Storm Ida could strengthen to a hurricane during the next 24 hours. Ida will move across western Cuba this evening, which could briefly slow the intensification process.  An upper level ridge will be over the Gulf of Mexico during the weekend.  The winds will be weak in the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Ida is likely to undergo a period of rapid intensification during the weekend that will cause it to strengthen to a major hurricane.  Ida could reach Category 4 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale on Sunday.

Tropical Storm Ida will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system that extended from the Atlantic Ocean to the eastern Gulf of Mexico.  The high will steer Ida toward the northwest during the next 48 hours.  As mentioned above, on its anticipated track Tropical Storm Ida will move across western Cuba on Friday evening. Ida will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to western Cuba. Ida is likely to approach the coast of Louisiana as a major hurricane on Sunday.  Ida will be capable of causing major damage when it approaches the coast. It could cause a storm surge of up to 10 to 14 feet (3 to 4 meters). A Storm Surge Watch has been issued for the coast from Sabine Pass to the Alabama/Florida border. The Storm Surge Watch includes Vermilion Bay, Lake Borgne, Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Mobile Bay. Ida probably will not be as strong or as large as Hurricane Laura was last year.  Ida could be a little bigger and a little stronger than Hurricane Delta was when it approached Louisiana in 2020.

Tropical Storm Ida Prompts Hurricane Watch for Louisiana and Mississippi

The threat posed by Tropical Storm Ida prompted the issuance of a Hurricane Watch for the coast of Louisiana and Mississippi on Thursday night. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Thursday the center of Tropical Storm Ida was located at latitude 18.6°N and longitude 80.5°W which put it about 65 miles (105 km) southeast of Grand Cayman. Ida was moving toward the northwest at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (65 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1006 mb.

A Hurricane Watch was issued for the portion of the coast from Cameron, Louisiana to the Mississippi/Alabama border. The Hurricane Watch included New Orleans, Lake Ponchartrain and Lake Maurepas. Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for the Cayman Islands. Tropical Storm Warnings were also in effect for the Cuban provinces of Matanzas, Mayabeque, Havana, Artemisa, Pinar del Rio and the Isle of Youth. A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from the Mississippi/Alabama border to the Alabama/Florida border.

The circulation around Tropical Storm Ida was gradually becoming more organized. A few more thunderstorms were beginning to develop near the center of Ida. A rainband was wrapping around the eastern and northern sides of the center of circulation. However, the distribution of thunderstorms was still asymmetrical. The strongest thunderstorms were occurring in bands forming on the eastern side of Tropical Storm Ida. An upper level low near Florida was producing south-southwesterly winds that were blowing over the western side of Ida’s circulation. Those winds were causing moderate vertical wind shear and they were contributing to the asymmetrical distribution of thunderstorms. Wind to tropical storm force extended out 70 miles (110 km) in the northeastern quadrant of Tropical Storm Ida. The winds in the other parts of Ida’s circulation were blowing at less than tropical storm force.

Tropical Storm Ida will move around the southwestern part of a subtropical high pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean during the next several days. The high will steer Ida toward the northwest. On its anticipated track Tropical Storm Ida will move over the Cayman Islands during the next few hours. Ida could be near western Cuba on Friday evening. Tropical Storm Ida will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to the Cayman Islands and parts of western Cuba. Ida will move over the Gulf of Mexico during the weekend. It could approach the central coast of the Gulf of Mexico on Sunday.

Tropical Storm Ida will move into an environment that will become more favorable for intensification during the next 60 hours. The upper low near Florida will move off to the northwest and it will weaken. When the upper low weakens, they vertical wind shear will decrease. Ida will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C. Ida is likely to strengthen to a hurricane during the next 36 hours. An upper level ridge will be over the Gulf of Mexico during the weekend. The upper level winds will be weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. Ida could intensify rapidly once an inner core with an eye and an eyewall develop. Ida could rapidly intensify to a major hurricane over the Gulf of Mexico.

On its anticipated track Ida could approach the coast of Louisiana on Sunday. Ida could be a major hurricane when it nears the coast. Ida will bring strong winds and locally heavy rain to the central Gulf Coast. It could generate a significant storm surge of up to 7 to 11 feet (2 to 3.3 meters). A Storm Surge Watch has been issued for the coast from Sabine Pass to the Alabama/Florida border. The Storm Surge Watch includes Vermilion Bay, Lake Borgne, Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Mobile Bay.

Potential Tropical Cyclone Three Reaches Tropical Storm Force

Potential Tropical Cyclone Three reached tropical storm force south of Louisiana on Friday afternoon. At 2:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Potential Tropical Cyclone Three (03L) was located at latitude 27.3°N and longitude 91.1°W which put it about 165 miles (265 km) south of Morgan City, Louisiana. Potential Tropical Cyclone Three was moving toward the north at 14 m.p.h. (22 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1007 mb.

A Tropical Storm Warning was in effect for the portion of the coast from Morgan City, Louisiana to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line, Florida including New Orleans, Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas. The Tropical Storm Warning included Biloxi, Mississippi, Mobile, Alabama and Pensacola, Florida.

The circulation around Potential Tropical Cyclone Three strengthened on Friday afternoon. A C-MAN station (BURL1) at Southwest Pass, Louisiana with an anemometer at a height of 38 meters reported a sustained wind speed of 44 m.p.h. (71 km/h) and a wind gust of 51 m.p.h. (82 km/h). The sustained wind speed was equivalent to a speed of 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) at a standard observation height of 10 meters.

The circulation around Potential Tropical Cyclone Three continued to consist of a broad low pressure system at the surface. The strongest winds were occurring northeast of the center of the broad low pressure system. A high pressure system southeast of the U.S. was contributing to a stronger pressure gradient in that region. The stronger pressure gradient was causing winds to blow at tropical storm force. The winds were weaker in the other parts of Potential Tropical Cyclone Three. There were several smaller circulations revolving counterclockwise around the broader Potential Tropical Cyclone Three. One of the smaller circulations was south of Louisiana and another one was over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. The strongest thunderstorms were occurring in bands northeast of the broad center and in a long band on the eastern side of the circulation.

Potential Tropical Cyclone Three will move through an environment slightly favorable for intensification during the next few hours. Potential Tropical Cyclone Three will move over an area where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C. It will move between an upper level low over eastern Texas and an upper level ridge over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. The low and ridge will produce southwesterly winds that will blow toward the top of Potential Tropical Cyclone Three. Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear and the shear will inhibit intensification. The upper level ridge will contribute to upper level divergence that will pump mass to the east of Potential Tropical Cyclone Three. There will also be drier air over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico, which will make it difficult for thunderstorms to develop in that area. Potential Tropical Cyclone Three could intensify a little more during the next six hours. If a well defined surface center of circulation develops, the system could be designated as a tropical storm.

Potential Tropical Cyclone Three will move around the western end of the high pressure system southeast of the U.S. The high pressure system will steer it toward the north-northeast during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track Potential Tropical Cyclone Three will make landfall in southeastern Louisiana on Friday night. The system will move across southeastern Mississippi on Saturday and it could reach Alabama by Saturday night. It will bring gusty winds to southeast Louisiana and the coasts of Mississippi and Alabama. The system could cause a storm surge of 3 to 5 feet (1.0 to 1.5 meters) along parts of the coast. It will drop locally heavy rain when it moves inland. Heavy rain could cause flash floods over parts of the southeastern U.S. Flash Flood Watches were in effect for parts of southeastern Mississippi, Alabama, northwestern Florida, and western Georgia. There may also be enough low level wind shear to produce tornadoes when the rainbands in the eastern side of the circulation when it moves inland.