Tropical Storm Ida Strengthens

Reconnaissance planes found Friday morning that Tropical Storm Ida had strengthened over the Northwest Caribbean Sea. At 8:00 a.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Storm Ida was located at latitude 20.3°N and longitude 81.7°W which put it about 115 miles (185 km) southeast of the Isle of Youth, Cuba. Ida was moving toward the northwest at 15 m.p.h. (24 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 75 m.p.h. (120 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 996 mb.

A Hurricane Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Cameron, Louisiana to the Mississippi/Alabama border. The Hurricane Watch included New Orleans, Lake Ponchartrain and Lake Maurepas. Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for the Cayman Islands. Tropical Storm Warnings were also in effect for the Cuban provinces of Matanzas, Mayabeque, Havana, Artemisa, Pinar del Rio and the Isle of Youth. A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from the Mississippi/Alabama border to the Alabama/Florida border.

Two reconnaissance planes flying through Tropical Storm Ida on Friday morning found that the sustained wind speed had increased and the minimum surface pressure had decreased. The planes also found that the circulation around Ida was more organized.  Thunderstorms were forming near the center of Ida.  Storms near the center of circulation were generating upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical storm.  The removal of mass was causing the surface pressure to decrease.  The decreasing pressure resulted in the generation of more force which produced higher wind speeds.  More thunderstorms were also forming in bands revolving around the center of Tropical Storm Ida. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 80 miles (130 km) from the center of Ida.

Tropical Storm Ida will move into an environment that will become increasingly favorable for intensification during the next 48 hours.  An upper level low over the southeast U.S. was producing southerly winds that were blowing toward the top of Ida’s circulation.  Those winds were causing some vertical wind shear.  However, the upper low was moving away from Ida and the low was weakening.  The wind shear will decrease as the upper low weakens.  Tropical Storm Ida will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30˚C.  Ida will continue to intensify today.  Tropical Storm Ida could strengthen to a hurricane during the next 24 hours. Ida will move across western Cuba this evening, which could briefly slow the intensification process.  An upper level ridge will be over the Gulf of Mexico during the weekend.  The winds will be weak in the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear.  Ida is likely to undergo a period of rapid intensification during the weekend that will cause it to strengthen to a major hurricane.  Ida could reach Category 4 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale on Sunday.

Tropical Storm Ida will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system that extended from the Atlantic Ocean to the eastern Gulf of Mexico.  The high will steer Ida toward the northwest during the next 48 hours.  As mentioned above, on its anticipated track Tropical Storm Ida will move across western Cuba on Friday evening. Ida will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to western Cuba. Ida is likely to approach the coast of Louisiana as a major hurricane on Sunday.  Ida will be capable of causing major damage when it approaches the coast. It could cause a storm surge of up to 10 to 14 feet (3 to 4 meters). A Storm Surge Watch has been issued for the coast from Sabine Pass to the Alabama/Florida border. The Storm Surge Watch includes Vermilion Bay, Lake Borgne, Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Mobile Bay. Ida probably will not be as strong or as large as Hurricane Laura was last year.  Ida could be a little bigger and a little stronger than Hurricane Delta was when it approached Louisiana in 2020.